OSCAR SUBMISSION PREDICTIONS 2014-2015, PHILIPPINES to VIETNAM

Here's the last batch of countries, from Philippines to Vietnam.

Poland, Romania and Turkey have already made their official selections, while I've left off the three biggest countries (Philippines, Russia and Spain) and will fill them in by the end of August.

1. PHILIPPINES- (Written late on 9.24.14) I'm sorry that Philippines is one of the countries I didn't get a chance to research this year. You can read a great article about the Filipino race here. As the author indicates, "Barber's Tales" seems to be a strong candidate based on prior committe love for the Actress and Director. I don't think the Philippines will be silly enough to send one of Lav Diaz's films. Though "Norte: The End of History" appeared at Cannes and "From What is Before" won Locarno, the fact remains that these films are an acquired taste. "Norte" may be the highest-profile Filipino film of the year, but it's over four hours long, while "Before" is just under SIX hours. Hit action movie "10000 Hours" (which won two Best Picture titles last year at various Filipino Film awards ceremonies....they seem to have a half a dozen) shouldn't be counted out either, nor should crococile attack docudrama "Bwaya" or LGBT-themed "Commitment", which were the big winners at Cinemalaya 2014. I think "Barber's Tale" makes a lot of sense. 

2. POLAND- "Ida" (Written in June before the selection).  Poland seems to have an easy decision this year, considering the international success of “Ida”, a black & white drama about a novice nun in Communist Poland who discovers her Jewish roots shortly before taking her final vows. The film has successfully been released in Canada, France, the USA and elsewhere, winning critical acclaim for the film itself (winning the Grand Prize in London and Warsaw) and especially for its lead actresses. “Ida” is the front-runner and will be hard to beat. If anybody can, it will probably be “Warsaw 44”, a film about a number of young people who play a key role in the 1944 Warsaw Uprising against the Nazis. It will be released in September and Poland sometimes  uses the Oscar submission to promote new films (“In Darkness”, “Walesa”). Two other films tied “Ida” at the Polish Eagle Awards with four awards apiece. “Ida” won Best Picture/Director/Actress, while “Life Feels Good”, about a man with cerebral palsy, won Screenplay and three of the four Acting awards, and “Papusza”, the biopic of a Polish-Gypsy poetess, dominated the tech categories. I’m skeptical of their chances. It's  “Ida” for sure.

3. PORTUGAL- "The Mais: A Story of a Portuguese Family" Portugal is a mess in this category. They hold the record for most Oscar submissions without getting a nomination, and this year pickings are slim. Last year’s sole box-office success was a silly buddy comedy (“Pecados Rurais”) and this year six of the ten feature films in their National Film Catalogue were made by foreign directors (including Bille August)! One of their only contenders- 3-hour long historical drama “Até Amanhã Camaradas”- looks well-made but got middling reviews and might be disqualified because it is largely a repackaging of a television miniseries. I'm not sure how much is new footage but AMPAS is very strict with films that have appeared on TV in any form. Netherlands and Sweden have had films disqualified for this. All of this is a long way of saying it is fairly certain that Portugal will choose their only real option: “The Mais: A Story of a Portuguese Family”, a three-hour epic costume drama about incest and intrigue among an elite 19^th century family. It’s directed by Joao Botelho, who has been selected twice before. Set in 1825, it looks gorgeous and Portugal likes their movies stuffy and long. For those of you keeping track, 105-year old Manoel de Oliveira appears to be taking a break after directing or co-directing three feature films in 2012. Runner-ups: not much to choose from, but in 2^nd place will be “Getúlio”, a true story about political assassinations in 1954 military-ruled Portugal. In 3^rd place:  “Yvone Kane”, about a white Portuguese woman returning to her African birthplace. Highly unlikely:  the aforementioned ineligible “Camaradas” (they may try to send it) and teen drama “End of the World”.

4. PUERTO RICO- "Cows Wearing Glasses" (Las vacas con gafas)- Puerto Rico had been invited to send films to the Oscars behinning in 1986. However, Puerto Rico was unceremoniously banned from the Oscars after 2011. Their crime was that they were not an independent country. Never mind that AMPAS had allowed Palestine to send films since 2005 in the interests of “inclusiveness”, that Hong Kong had sent films for decades and that Danish province of Greenland was welcomed into the Oscar family in 2010. Puerto Rico is no longer invited, but I will always include them in this list in protest. Puerto Rico hasn’t had a strong film year, but the strongest candidate would be “Cows Wearing Glasses”, a drama about an elderly painter reflecting upon his life after learning he will soon go blind. I've heard through the grapevine that some Puerto Rican filmmakers working in the USA are launching another campaign to get re-invited. Bring back the Puerto Ricans!

5. ROMANIA- "Japanese Dog" (OFFICIAL) Romania announced they were sending “Japanese Dog” to the Oscars on August 14 before I’d made my prediction. I probably would have gotten it wrong as I thought the more likely choice was period drama “Kira Kiralina” (set in 1960s Romania) or perhaps “A Love Story, Lindenfeld”, about a man who returns to Romania after 60 years upon learning his childhood love survived the Communist labor camps. Both were among the four Romanian films highlighted at this year’s Cannes Film Market but I should have remembered that the Romanian Academy prefers more modern “New Wave” films rather than these more old-fashioned efforts. “Japanese Dog” got eight Gopo nominations this year, winning only one for Best Actor (it lost four to “Child’s Pose” which represented Romania last year and two to “The Unsaved”, which will probably represent Moldova this year). However, it has gotten good reviews for its story of a grumpy old Romanian father who receives a visit from his estranged son and his Japanese wife.

6. RUSSIA- All I know is that it's unlikely to be "Leviathan"!

7. SAUDI ARABIA- Nothing Eligible. For me, Saudi Arabia was the biggest surprise on last year’s list. The Oscars have fairly strict rules that films have to play in commercial theatres in their home country. As cinemas have been banned in Saudi Arabia since the 1970s, “Wadjda” seemed out of luck, even without its feminist slant scaring Saudi conservatives. Still, female helmer Haifaa al-Mansour managed to get it booked for “non-traditional” screenings, reportedly  at Foreign Embassies and oil installations, and convinced the Ministry of Culture to nominate the film. Sadly, it didn’t make the next round but al-Mansour did get to Hollywood. She’s now in pre-production on a film biography of author Mary Shelley before returning to Saudi to work on a film about young Saudi men (good luck getting permission for that!). Contrary to many news stories, “Wadjda” was not the first-ever Saudi film but it is the most acclaimed of the few which have been made. Having said all that, I haven’t heard of any new Saudi films this year so they’ll presumably skip. Too bad because "Wadjda" was great! Go see it!

8. SERBIA- "Barbarians" Serbia is likely to submit “Barbarians” (Karlovy Vary), a drama about troubled teens in 2008 Serbia. The main character is a violent young man who is informed by his social worker that his father killed in the Kosovo War is actually alive and wants to meet him.  Serbia now requires filmmakers who want to be considered for an Oscar to formally submit their films and pay a fee, so if the producers of “Barbarians” don’t enter, the nominee will almost certainly be “From Zero to Hero”, an all-star black comedy by acclaimed director Srdjan Dragojevic set a seaside time-share hotel (although reviews have been less than warm). Among the other contenders are “Monument to Michael Jackson” (another black comedy...the Serbs do these very well) about a town that fakes a visit from Michael Jackson only to have the celebrity die in real life while he is “visiting” their town; “Withering”, about a man who returns to his hometown to sell off his land after living in Switzerland, and Bosnian Serb war drama “So Hot was the Cannon”. Intriguing but out of luck:  “See you in Montevideo”, the sequel to their 2011 submission, and killer mermaid horror film “Nymph”. 

9. SINGAPORE- "3 Peas in a Pod" Singapore will see nearly 20 local films released in 2014, which is quiet good for them. They’ve sent films to the Oscars six of the past nine years since joining the competition in 2005. The city-state doesn’t have any big successes on the international arthouse circuit this year, so if they join they will have to send one of their more commercial efforts (they did this in 2007 and 2012) or just sit out (which they did in 2009 and 2010). The three strongest films (Royston Tan's "3688" plus "Sinema Paradiso" and "Don't Wayang Me") are still without release dates and should be eligible next year. That means the Sings will have to go with one of two dull-looking youth dramas. “Three Peas in a Pod”, a road movie dramedy about three college friends involved in a love triangle on a post-graduation road trip, looks slightly more likely than inspirational basketball drama “Meeting the Giant”. Director Michelle Chong (“Peas”) repped Singapore two years ago. As for myself, I’m more interested in seeing “Filial Party” selected. It’s a spoof of reality television about three people competing for a million dollar prize to be given to the one most devoted to their parents’ happiness. 

10. SLOVAKIA- "The Candidate" Slovakia just held their bi-annual film awards and the big winner was last year’s submission “My Dog Killer” (a decent enough film, but a bit slow for my tastes). This year, the Slovaks have been mostly quiet.  I think the Slovak candidate is pretty clear to be “The Candidate”, a black comedy-thriller about a man in charge of surveilling prominent citizens (clergy, ad executives, and of course political candidates) in the midst of a presidential election. It got good reviews and did well at the box-office, and was also nominated against “My Dog Killer”. In with a shot is documentary “Comeback” (Karlovy Vary 2014; they chose documentaries in 2008 and 2010), following two ex-cons as they exit prison. I believe they have another nine films eligible, most of which are awaiting release. Among the more promising: “A Step Into the Darkness”, about a self-destructive romance imploding against the background of post-war Communist Czechoslovakia, “Stanko”, a road movie about a man building a relationship with the girl he is helping to traffick to Italy, and “Children”, an omnibus film telling four separate stories. Prediction: “Candidate” gets the nod, with “A Step Into the Darkness” and “Comeback” dark horses.

11. SLOVENIA- "Inferno" Slovenia is tough to predict this year because most of their contenders haven’t come out yet and/or don’t have release dates. I see the front-runner as family drama “The Right to Love” (previously a short, now a full-length feature), but I don’t think it will premiere before September 30.  Last fall, Slovenia saw the release of modest hit “Southern Scum, Go Home” (aka Chefurs Raus!), a dark comedy-drama about a group of young Slovenian guys and their attitudes towards immigrants and their ex-Yugoslav compatriots. This year, we’ll see the release of “Seduce Me”, about a 19-year old orphan who leaves his group home, falls in love and goes on a quest to find his father’s grave, “The Tree” (Karlovy Vary), an abstract, non-linear arthouse piece about youth, love and grief set against a background of blood feuds, and “Inferno”, about an unemployed man and his family facing off against capitalist society. If “Right to Love” doesn’t get into Slovenian cinemas, I predict they send “Inferno”, followed by “Seduce Me” and “Southern Scum” with difficult to digest “Tree” and feminist comedy “Panic” rounding out the Top Five.

12. SOUTH AFRICA- "iNumberNumber" South Africa clearly loves gritty urban drama. Since winning the Oscar for “Tsotsi”, the South African Academy has highlighted the country's criminal underbelly in “Jerusalema”, “Little One” and last year’s “Four Corners”. Expect to make it four this year with the acclaimed “iNumberNumber” starring Tsotsi himself (Presley Chweneyagae) as one of a pair of crooked cops involved in South Africa’s criminal underworld. It’s rocked the box-office and is supposed to be one of the best films of its kind made in South Africa (and reportedly picked up for an American remake). Though it portrays itself as the rainbow nation, South Africa never picks films about the white Afrikaner community unless they have nothing else (like in 2010 when they chose the haunting “Beauty”), though ironically they so far have only picked movies made by White directors (again….all except 2010’s “Beauty”). That’s a shame because most of South Africa’s well-reviewed “Foreign Language” films are actually Afrikaner stories. This year, a trio of them have gotten great reviews:  road movie “Pad na jou hart”, long-awaited fantasy drama “The Windpump” and “Faan se Trein”, a sort of Afrikaner Forrest Gump revolving around an inheritance. Lastly are two films in native African languages: “Elelwani”, the first-ever film in the Venda language, about a young woman trying to continue her education despite her parent’s attempts to force her into an arranged marriage with a dying, elderly man, and “Cold Harbour”, a crime thriller in Xhosa. I predicted “Elelwani” last year, but it didn’t premiere in cinemas until January 2014. “iNumberiNumber” should get this easily, with “Elelwani” in second and “Faan se Trein” third. “Die Windpomp” would have a better chance if its director wasn't American.

13. SPAIN- "Living is Easy with Eyes Closed"- So I cheated a bit and waited until Spain announced their three-film shortlist. Most of the news stories are about "El Nino", the biggest and loudest of the three films on the list, with some stories (falsely) indicating the film was already chosen. "El Nino" is a drama about traffickers smuggling people and drugs from Africa to Gibraltar and Spain. It's probably a very good action movie, but it's a mostly commercial effort and hasn't won any awards or gotten major festival play. For a country like Spain, that's not good enough. My personal choice would be "10000 Km.", a sweet dramedy about the long-distance relationship between two Catalonian Spaniards, one in Barcelona and one in Los Angeles. Despite good reviews, it's probably too "small" an indie flick to be selected by Spain. That leaves us with the likely nominee, "Living is Easy With Eyes Closed", about a Beatles-obsessed professor who picks up two hitchhikers in 1966 Spain on his way to see a performance by John Lennon. Director David Trueba has been picked by the Spanish Academy before ("Soldiers of Salamina") and he recently won both Best Picture and Best Director at the Spanish Goya Awards. Add the period theme and a slice-of-life feel that matches last year's submission and this should be an automatic win for "Living".

14. SRI LANKA- "Butterfly Symphony" Sri Lanka has sent movies to the Oscars twice seemingly randomly and they are one of the least likely Asian countries to enter this year. The most prominent film from Sri Lanka this year is “With You, Without You”, but though it got released in India and was shown at film festivals worldwide it seems to have failed to get a domestic release. The Lankans release about 20 films a year, though none seems are likely Oscar candidates. If they feel pressured by the return of neighboring Pakistan and Nepal last year, they could potentially send “Between Yesterday and Tomorrow”, about three friends visiting Northern Sri Lanka after the Civil War, “Siri Daladagamanaya” a Buddhist-themed costume drama, or “Butterfly Symphony”, a music-laden melodrama about a music student inspired by a misladen love letter. However, the more interesting gay-themed “Frangipani” is not realistic. I was set to predict“Between Yesterday and Tomorrow” (Montreal), but it looks like the release date won't be until November, so I'm opting for "Butterfly Symphony" . For an interesting analysis of the current state of the Sri Lankan film industry, see here.

15. SWEDEN' "The Hundred Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared" Sweden has four front-runners, all of which have played in major film festivals. On paper, the front-runner should be considered “The Reunion” (Venice 2013) which dominated the Guldbagge Awards and topped the Swedish Film Insitute’s new “Review Index” for 2013. Unfortunately, critics outside of Sweden mostly seem to hate this very arthouse film about a high-school outcast causing a scene at her class reunion. It would be a poor choice. “Force Majeure” (Cannes 2014), an unconventional "arthouse thriller" about a postcard-perfect Swedish family snowed in by an avalanche on a ski holiday, has gotten better reviews from overseas critics.  However, the Swedes should remember that their three shortlisted films in the past dozen years have all been decidedly more commercial efforts (“Simple Simon” and “Evil” certainly, while ”As It Is in Heaven” straddles the line). Thus, I’m hoping Sweden opts for Lukas Moodysson’s surprisingly upbeat “We Are the Best!”, or surprise box-office hit comedy “The Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared”. “The Man”, about a centenarian who escapes from his nursing home, just became the highest grossing local film in Swedish history (up nearly 50% above “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”). It faces the reverse problem of “Reunion” though. Domestic critics liked the film but not all that much. It barely registered at the Guldbagge Awards (though it won the Audience Award) and placed 13th^th on the 2013 Review Index. If selected, it would likely be an early favorite for the shortlist. “We Are the Best”, about an all-female teenaged punk rock band, is said to be a feel-good surprise from the usually depressing Moodysson. Every review I’ve read is glowing, and feel-good movies (“Amelie”, “Lagaan”, “Everybody Famous”) can sometimes score here (though not recently). Three other films to watch out for: Colin Nutley’s upcoming comedy “Medicine”, Hanna Schygulla in trippy fantasy-drama “Quiet Room” and African documentary “Forest of the Dancing Spirits”, filmed in the Congo. My prediction: Sweden should choose “The 100-Year Old Man”...and I’m betting they do. “Force Majeure” will come second.

 16. SWITZERLAND- "I'll Be the Goalie" Switzerland now holds a film festival to select the Swiss nominee for the Oscars. I wrote my predictions for Switzerland before the lineup was announced and I was surprised to see that three of my Top Five aren't even contending (Locarno Audience Award winner "Unlikely Heroes", Bettina Oberli's "Lovely Louise" and Jean Luc Godard's bizarre 3-D "Goodbye to Language"). Instead, we have a rather bizarre list of eight features and four documentaries, including one that seems to be an almost completely Belgian production, one that appears to be largely in English (co-starring Americans Kristen Stewart and Chloe Grace Moretz alongside Juliette Binoche) and a documentary short that is only 50 minutes long. That makes this a super-close race between Swiss Film Prize winner "I'll be the Goalie" and Xavier Koller's "Black Brothers". Koller ("Journey of Hope") was the last Swiss filmmaker to win this category and his “Black Brothers”, is a period drama exposing the practice of buying and selling impoverished young boys into apprenticeships, which ended only in the 20^th century. "I’ll be the Goalie”, the story of an ex-junkie released from prison who tries to go straight, was the big winner of this year’s Swiss Film Awards, winning four of the eight categories that it was eligible for. Juliette Binoche's "Clouds of Sils Maria" (Cannes) will certainly give those two a run for their money if indeed it's more than 50% in French. Two other Best Pic nominees from the Swiss Film Awards are competing and they're both about teenaged prostitutes! “Dreamland” is about a man, his wife and a Bulgarian teenaged prostitute while “Left Foot, Right Foot” is about a young prostitute and a skater boy. But they’ll be also-rans. My prediction: The Swiss Film Prize are a good precursor. Every Swiss nominee since 2006 has scored a major Swiss Film Prize (Best Film or Documentary) except Bettina Oberli’s light “Late Bloomers”. I think “Goalie” will represent Switzerland, although “Black Brothers” (only two minor noms at the Swiss Film Prize) and the possibly ineligible "Sils Maria" are big threats. "Dreamland" and child labor documentary "L'abri" should round out the Top Five. You can see the full list of contenders here: http://www.delemont-hollywood.ch/2014/programme/.

 17. TAIWAN- "Kano" Taiwan has a competitive two-way race but I think they’ll send “Kano”, a big-budget three-hour baseball drama that was a critical and financial success in Taiwan. Set during the Japanese colonial period, it tells the true story of an underdog little league team that ended up beating the Japanese champions and it comes from the same team as blockbusters “Cape No. 7” and “Seediq Bale”, which both represented Taiwan. Tsai Ming-liang’s “Stray Dogs” won the Special Jury Prize in Venice (2013) for its story of a desperately poor father and his kids living on the street, but Tsai’s films are boring and “Stray Dogs” looks terrible. Still, they’ve chosen him twice before so he has a chance. It’s difficult to see them choosing anything else, although drama “Exit” (which beat “Kano” for Best Film at the 2014 Taipei Film Festival) and upcoming murder mystery-thriller “Partners in Crime” should be considered dark horses. “Partners” director Chang Jung-chi was a surprise pick a few years back for another late release. Rural coming-of-age tale “A Time for Quchi” (Locarno 2013) might also have been a contender but acclaimed director Chang Tso-chi’s June conviction for rape has probably made this dark horse an impossibility. I’m more interested in seeing playful rom-com “Campus Confidential”, but that won’t be a contender at all. I predict “Kano”.

18. TAJIKISTAN- "Gilding" Tajikistan last entered the Oscar race in 2005. They had a rare local film at the Busan Film Festival (“Mirror Without Reflection”) which I tried and failed to see last year, but it appears it was released four weeks too early in Tajikistan to qualify. The only possible contender I know about this year is the female-helmed “Gilding”, a drama about the hardships of a young teenaged boy forced to work in the gold mines in order to help pay his mother’s medical fees. Along the way, he becomes the victim of scammers and thieves. It played at the Eurasian Film Festival in Kazakhstan but since it was made without any state funding I doubt it will spur the country to enter the Oscar race for the first time in a decade.

19. TANZANIA- "White Shadow" Tanzania entered the race just once a decade ago and I don’t see much chance of them returning this year. If they do, they have three films competing in the main competition of the Zanzibar International Film Festival (the country’s biggest). Their best bet is “White Shadow”, a film about the ritual murder of albinos in traditional Tanzanian culture. It’s the only Tanzanian film that has played internationally this year, though its director (a German-based Israeli) and its non-Tanzanian crew made render it ineligible. For an interesting article about Tanzania’s burdgeoning film industry (mostly low-budget Nigeria-style productions shot on video) see here.

20. THAILAND- "The Last Executioner" Thailand hasn’t let a coup d’etat dent their box-office. Horror movies and ghost comedies have been pulling in the audiences, although they don’t have too many movies that they could consider for the Oscars. Last year they had to resort to sending a teen horror flick (albeit a good one) and the previous year they sent an action movie (another good one). This year’s battle is between “The Last Executioner” (Shanghai), a biopic and easily the best-reviewed Thai film of the year and big-budget finale “King Naresuan 5” the oft-delayed finale to the costume drama series directed by a prince. The Thai have only ever sent one of the Naresuan films to the Oscars, so I’m guessing they send “The Last Executioner”, about the life of the man tasked with shooting Thailand’s condemned criminals. Don’t let his name fool you...Director Tom Waller is Thai. Other options include indie teen comedy “Mary is Happy, Mary is Happy” (based on a series of online tweets), romantic rural drama “The Story of Kwan and Riam”, “Timeline”, a romantic drama about a widowed mom , and “Concrete Clouds” (Busan), an arthouse film about two brothers dealing with their father’s suicide. Pen-ek Ratanaruang’s latest (“Life of Gravity” is not eligible because it aired on TV first. “Executioner” should have this in the bag, with cultural showcases “Naresuan” and “Kwan and Riam” a distant second and third.

21. TUNISIA- "Bastardo" Tunisia hasn’t sent a film since 2002...way before the Arab Spring made things very difficult for the local film industry. They’ve got two possibilities that have gotten quite good notices this year. I’m hoping they send “Bastardo”, a moral allegory about how power corrupts. It’s the story of a man disgraced for life since his parents abandoned him at birth, but who is able to seize control of his slum from a gang. Unfortunately, he soon becomes a slumlord himself. It played at Abu Dhabi and Cannes Film Market and would be a great way for Tunisia to return to the competition. Dark horse: female helmed mockumentary “Le Challat de Tunis” about a woman director searching for a (real-life) criminal who has been slashing women’s buttocks. "Challat" was the Tunisian film chosen to be screened alongside the Tunisian Minister of Culture’s big pitch at Cannes to promote Tunisia as a safe filming location as well as a source of quality Arab cinema.

22. TURKEY- "Winter Sleep" (OFFICIAL) (Written in June prior to the selection) Turkey won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival for the second time this year (the first was for “Yol”, which was banned in Turkey at the time) meaning that it’s certain the Turks will submit Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s three-hour plus “Winter Sleep”. In the past thirty years, all but three eligible Palme d’Or winners were submitted by their respective countries and I expect “Sleep” to rep Turkey as well. “Sleep” is said to be a bit more accessible and talky than Ceylan’s usual brooding, dialogue-less films. It centers on a former actor-turned-hotel-owner in the Turkish countryside and the gap between the rich and poor people living in the area. The Turkish Academy has submitted Ceylan's films three times, always after winning a major award at Cannes. Also, Turkey’s only shortlist appearance was for Ceylan’s “Three Monkeys”. In a different year, they might have considered other films including earthquake evacuation movie “Singing Women”, action thriller “Antidote”, grandma-granddaughter Kurdish drama (Berlin 2014) “Come to My Voice" or especially historical prison camp drama “Kirimli Korkunc Yillar”. But I’d say “Sleep” is very safe. It’s only challenge is getting a Turkish release date to prevent “Kirimli” from stealing their spot.

23. UKRAINE- "The Tribe" Ukraine seems certain to choose “The Tribe”, one of the most innovative films at Cannes 2014 and also the winner of three awards there, including the Critics Week Prize. Ukrainian films are unused to such acclaim, so the Ukrainians will probably submit despite their domestic problems this year. Shot with a cast of amateur deaf actors, “The Tribe” is a film with no spoken dialogue and no subtitles. In the film, a boy enters a boarding school for deaf students and upon his arrival there, he discovers the school hierarchy includes gangs, bullying, drugs and prostitution. There is precedent for films without dialogue being approved for the “Foreign Language Film” award (e.g. Algeria’s “Le Bal” and Kazakhstan’s “Kelin”) so no worries about disqualification.   Ukraine has had a pretty good film year despite their country. Films like strongman biopic “Ivan the Powerful”, family Christmas comedy “Credenza” (winner of Best Ukrainian Film at Odessa 2013) and Soviet-era “Saint Luke”, the true story of a brilliant surgeon, would normally be contenders but probably can’t touch "The Tribe".

24. UNITED KINGDOM- "Letters to Sofija" The UK is rather fussy. First of all, the United Kingdom obviously makes most of their films in English, and their nominating body (BAFTA) has said that they will not send a film unless they see it as a worthy contender (there was a controversy a few years back when they refused to send any of the films that answered an open call for submissions). In the past ten years, they’ve sent two Welsh films and two films made by British directors in Afghanistan and the Philippines.  Unfortunately, their Celtic-language film industry (mostly Welsh) which has netted them two Oscar nods is moribund. I don’t think they’ve made a Welsh-language film in several years. I’ve tried to find a good eligible British film, but there aren’t any obvious contenders. I think they’ll skip this year, though for the sake of completion I’m predicting “Letters to Sofija”, a period romance between a famous composer and a local girl, set in 1908 pre-independence Lithuania. Other (unlikely) options include surreal fantasy “The Winter” (in Greek, made by a UK-based Greek director), UK-set illegal immigration drama “Leave to Stay” (in Kurdish, made by a UK-based Iraqi Kurdish director) or “Falling Leaves”, a droll dramedy about an émigré reluctant to return to Iran (in Farsi, filmed in Iran by an Iranian émigré  based in London). The UK has not chosen a foreign-born director since 1991 (Asif Kapadia is London born and raised), so I really think “Sofija” is their best option, though not a very likely one.

25. URUGUAY- "Mr. Kaplan" Uruguay has three main choices. First is “The Militant” (El lugar del hijo), a slow, introspective drama, which has represented Uruguay at most international film festivals this year, winning awards at Havana and Sao Paulo. It’s about an intellectual whose father's death coincides with a series of general strikes at Uruguayan universities, as well as with an economic downturn that devastated Uruguay. In "cinema of the absurd" style, the student channels his interest in student politics into working for a rural labor union. However, the Uruguayan Academy typically prefers lighter fare, so I am predicting (like last year) that they go with “Mr. Kaplan”, a comedy about an elderly Jewish man obsessed with arresting a German neighbor he is sure is a runaway Nazi. The film was made by the director of comedy“A Bad Day to Go Fishing” which beat out the favored “Gigante” to rep Uruguay in 2009. Their third option is “Solo”, another droll comedy (the Uruguayans send these almost every year) about a man who flees to Antarctica with an army band after his wife leaves him. It finally opened in Uruguayan cinemas in the fall. I’m much more excited to see pothead action-comedy “Relocos y Repasados” (released two months before Uruguay became the world’s first country to legalize marijuana) but it didn’t get very good reviews at home. Dark horses: “The Carrot” (Zanahoria), a political thriller will come out September 11.

26. VENEZUELA- "God's Slave" Venezuela has been having a great film year despite domestic political unrest and a rising crime rate. Although they’ve never been nominated, the quality of their submissions has increased dramatically in recent years. This year, they have five impressive contenders, and that's not even including baseball comedy “Papita Mani Toston”, the most successful Venezuelan film of all-time. Last year, I predicted this would be a walk-over for nationalist choice “Libertador”, the expensive biopic of national hero Simon Bolivar, directed by Alberto Arvelo (who repped Venezuela in 1997 and 2001) and starring Edgar Ramirez (“Bourne Ultimatum”, “Carlos the Jackal”). However, reviews have been just as strong or stronger for two smaller films on the film circuit, crowd pleaser “Bad Hair” (Pelo malo) (Toronto and others), directed by Mariana Rondon (chosen in 2007) and especially "God's Slave" (Esclavo de dios), the directorial debut of Joel Novoa, son of one of Venezuela's foremost directors. "Hair" is about a woman panicking about her young son’s sexuality. There's also arthouse “The Longest Distance” (La distancia más larga)(Huelva and others), though it's been praised more for its beautiful vistas than anything else and Jose Ramon Novoa's "Solo" (Joel's papa, selected in 1995 and 2000), though reviews haven't been as good as the other films. Venezuela's Academy almost always selects gritty dramas and I think the ultimate winner will be “God’s Slave” (Esclavo de Dios), recently acquired by Film Movement. “Slave” follows an Israeli agent and an Arab saboteur whose religious convictions put them on a collision course culminating in the real-life bombing of a 1994 Jewish community center. It's arguably the best-reviewed of the five and papa Jose Ramon produced it, so the Venezuelans may not feel they are snubbing papa for hijo. At this year's Festival of Venezuelan film, the big winner ("El regreso") was eligible last year, but "God's Slave" and "Bad Hair" both picked up major wins. ("Libertador" was not competing). The Venezuelan Academy is usually pretty fair. I predict “God’s Slave” is the upset choice over favorite “Libertador”, with “Bad Hair” in third. UPDATE: The list of eligible films has just come out and "God's Slave" was released too early to qualify, while director Jose Ramon Novoa has withdrawn his film from contention, citing a lack of transparency in the voting. Venezuelan media is reporting "Bad Hair" and "Libertador" are the only realistic options. Expect a walkover for "Libertador".

27. VIETNAM- "Legend Makers" Vietnam has had a mixed film year. A Vietnamese film opened the Panorama Section at Berlinale 2014, and the country witnessed a large number of high-profile box-office flops interspersed with the two biggest openings in local film history. The National Film Studio productions typically selected for the Oscars have a hard time even getting distribution in Vietnam while arthouse films and violent movies often have trouble with the Communist censors. The Vietnamese Academy typically chooses patriotic war films made with government money, which makes “Legend Makers”, another paint-by-numbers war movie about the Vietnam War, the obvious choice. That said, it doesn’t look very good and it couldn’t muster much support at the National Film Awards (the Golden Kites), winning only four minor awards. The shock winner that night was “The Talent”, a glossy melodrama about the entertainment industry in Vietnam, which won six awards including Best Picture, Best Director and the Critics Choice Awards. That’s definitely not what they typically send to the Oscars, but maybe this year will represent a shift in their thinking? I hope so. “2030” (aka “Water”, Berlin 2014) is Vietnam’s first sci-fi movie/murder mystery, set in the year 2030 when rising sea levels have forced half of society onto floating farms, but reviews have been mixed and the film seems to have failed to get a local cinematic release. Martial arts thriller “Blind Warrior” looks like a Vietnamese Zatoichi, though they’ve only ever chosen this genre once before. Vietnam has a slew of cute comedies, but the dour Vietnamese Academy seems unlikely to choose any of them, even a well-reviewed one like contemporary office comedy “How to Fight in Heels”, described as a Vietnamese “Devil Wears Prada”. A final contender is the upcoming female-helmed village drama “Flapping in the Middle of Nowhere” (Toronto).  Will Vietnam even submit at all this year?  If they do, I predict they make the worst possible choice and send “Legend Makers”, with “Blind Warrior” as the alternate. Sigh.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

The most likely debutante from this group are a pair of feminist-themed films from the Islamic world, namely "Red Blue and Yellow" (Dubai) from the UNITED ARAB EMIRATESand "40 Days of Silence" (Berlin) from UZBEKISTAN. Although I don't expect either film to be submitted, "Red" is about the life of a prominent female artisit, while "Silence" is about a village woman who takes a vow not to speak for 40 days. SENEGAL has produced some of Africa's most acclaimed films of the 21st century but they've never entered the Oscar race, so it's unlikely they will send "Under the Starry Sky", a warmly received film about Senegalese immigrants and the diaspora in Italy and the USA. RWANDA's "Mu Buzima" is about an aspiring musician. As for SYRIA's "Ladder to Damascus" and SOMALIA's "Fishing Without Nets", it's difficult to see how they could possibly get a domestic theatrical release due to war and instability.

Predictions for the 2014 Academy Award for Best Foreign Film- ASIA

 

It's that time of year again.....

In April, GREECE became the first country to elect their "Best Picture" of the year to enter in the Oscar race for Best Foreign Language Film.

Over the years, 104 different countries have entered the race for an Oscar (92 have entered in the past ten years) and on this blog, we give them all equal treatment whether they sent a single film in the 1970s (like Cote d'Ivoire....they won....) or whether they've entered every year since the category was created in 1956 (like France, who has 12 wins but none since "Indochine" won twenty years ago).

Last year, I saw 34 of the record 71 submissions and I thought the five nominees were all "good". However, I was disappointed that more daring films like "The Patience Stone" (Afghanistan) and "Pieta" (Korea) didn't make the finals. My personal favorites were "Les Intouchables" (France) and "Jaque Mate" (Dominican Republic) though I will confess that both of these were "guilty pleasures" and not necessarily Oscar-worthy films.

This year, I'm dividing the world up into four regions-
I- Asia and the Pacific (26 countries),
II- The Americas + Sub-Saharan Africa (26 countries),
III- Western, Central and Northern Europe (26 countries)
IV- the Middle East (including North Africa) and Eastern Europe (including the Balkans)

I've nearly completed my research this year, but feel free to write and tell me what you think your country will send to the Oscars. Most countries won't select their films until September but I'm moving to Seoul this summer, so I've gotten an early start....There will definitely be films coming out this summer that I've surely missed.

Let's start with the region that Oscar completely ignored last year- Asia. 16 of these countries sent films last year to compete, and I think we'll see 17 this year, with New Zealand and Sri Lanka probably rejoining the competition, and Kyrgyzstan likely bowing out.

COUNTRY MOST LIKELY TO ENTER: Japan and Taiwan haven't missed a competition in more than thirty years.
LEAST LIKELY TO ENTER: Probably Fiji, which I think has nothing eligible.
MOST LIKELY TO GET AN OSCAR NOMINATION: It's a bit early to tell, but I'm betting on Hong Kong!


1. AFGHANISTAN- "Wajma: An Afghan Love Story" Despite continuing violence and instability, Afghanistan has become a semi-regular participant in the Foreign Oscar competition since their 2002 debut. Last year, an Afghan filmmaker received an Oscar nomination for the first time (for “Bukhashi Boys” in the Best Live-Action Short category) and they probably also deserved a Foreign Film nod for the riveting “The Patience Stone”, whose sexual themes would have merited the director a death sentence a decade ago. Despite (or perhaps due to) the country’s misogynistic recent history, the Afghan Academy usually submits stories highlighting the lives of women and girls. This year is no exception. The front-runner is “Wajma: An Afghan Love Story”, which won a Screenwriting Prize at Sundance for its story of a woman who is ostracized by family when she becomes pregnant during a secret engagement. The challenger is “A Man’s Desire for a Fifth Wife”, about the plight of Afghan women suffering under abusive marriages. Marina Golbahari, the 10-year old star of “Osama”, now a beautiful 23-year old woman, has a new movie but I don’t think it will be released in time.

2. AUSTRALIA- "The Rocket" Australia is likely to submit the exotic Lao-language “The Rocket” about a little boy who is believed to be cursed since he was born as a twin. When his extended family learns his secret (the other twin died at birth), he is forced out since they fear he will bring the family misfortune. The boy then is forced to try and find a new home on his own. “The Rocket” won three awards in Berlin (including a Crystal Bear) and three awards at Tribeca (including Best Narrative Feature), and it’s already set to have a 2013 U.S. release (through Kino Lorber). It's a shoo-in to represent the Aussies.

3. BANGLADESH- "Television" Bangladesh rarely has movies that compete at the international level , which is why it was a point of pride that Mostafa Farooki’s comic satire “Television” was selected as the Closing Film at the Pusan International Film Festival, and was cited by many critics as one of the festival's most charming surprises. Farooki’s film is about a remote Bangladeshi hamlet whose headman rules the village as an omnipotent dictator, banning television and other “sinful” influences. Eventually, his worldview is changed by a series of mishaps revolving around his upcoming pilgrimage to Mecca. The film is said to be charming and delightful and has been selected for fests in Dubai and Gotheborg. The only obstacle I foresee is that the film seems to have been produced independently of Bangladesh’s cliquey filmmaking system (almost all Bangladeshi Oscar submissions have been made by the dominant studio, Impress Telefilms). However, Farooki has worked with Impress Telefilms before, so I still think this will be their pick. If the Bangladeshis look elsewhere, I could see them choosing “Pita” (from Impress Telefilms), a more traditional production about the 1971 Liberation War seen from the perspective of a father living in a mixed Muslim-Hindu village during the massacres by Pakistani soldiers. Less likely: “Runaway” (which I predicted last year as runner-up), another well-reviewed independent film which finally premiered in Dhaka in March after a year on the film festival circuit. It’s about a rickshaw driver who helps to reunite street children with their families. My prediction: “Television”

 

 4. BHUTAN- "Thank You, Sir!!" The Bhutanese entered the race once in 1999 with the delightful, Oscar-worthy “The Cup”. Tiny Bhutan does have a domestic film industry and runs its own National Film Awards. This year’s awards (announced in May) split the main awards between three films. “Thank You Sir” won most of the most awards (11), but “Jarim Sarim Yeshey Tshogyel”, about a woman from a dysfunctional family who dreams of becoming Miss Bhutan, won Best Picture while “Poenlop Agay Haap” won the all-important cultural awards. I know that Bhutan won’t send anything, but for the sake of completion I’ll choose the expensive “Thank You Sir”. Also of note, Bhutan’s first and only international director, (monk Khyentse Norbu, "The Cup", "Travellers & Magicians") has a new film out this year (“Vara: The Blessing”) but it’s in English.

5. CAMBODIA- "The Missing Picture" Cambodia returned to the Oscar race last year with labor of love “Lost Loves” and they could very well return this year with documentary “The Missing Picture”. Though documentaries rarely score here, director Rithy Panh won the Un Certain Regard Prize at Cannes 2013- probably the highest honor ever received by a Cambodian film. The France-based Panh, Cambodia’s  most internationally well-known filmmaker and director of Cambodia’s 1994 Oscar submission, narrates this unusual, autobiographical documentary about the death of his family during the 1975-1979 genocide, using clay figures.

 

6. CHINA- "Back to 1942" China's Academy has a dilemma. Their three most critically acclaimed films of the year are all by directors who have annoyed the Communist regime by speaking out against the government’s censorship policies. Jia Zhangke’s “A Touch of Sin” was warmly received at Cannes 2013 (with a Best Screenplay Award) but Zhang started his career as an underground filmmaker. In fact, Zhang has said publicly that he has stopped production on several past films rather than conform to the whims of the government censors. “A Touch of Sin” was approved for release in China, but it’s indictment of social problems in modern-day China  (prostitution, the wealth gap, government cover-ups) would make it an odd choice. Lou Ye’s “Mystery” played at Cannes 2012 and won Best Picture at the Asian Film Awards, but the film has divided the critics and Lou was banned from making films twice by the Chinese authorities for making movies (“Suzhou River” and “Summer Palace”) without government approval. His latest ban has expired but “Mystery” still hasn’t been released domestically. Feng Xiaogang is China’s biggest box-office draw, he represented China at the Oscars once before (“Aftershock”) and his hit WWII drama “Back to 1942”, about the outbreak of a wartime famine while fighting Japan, has two Oscar-winning actors in supporting roles (Adrian Brody and Tim Robbins). However, Feng also royally pissed off the Chinese authorities in April by making a speech during a televised award ceremony, noting that “censorship is torment” (it was bleeped out) in China today. Feng also famously said in 2010 that he doesn't care about Oscars and that he made his films for Chinese audiences, not Western ones. And Chuan Lu hasn’t pissed anyone off personally, but his movie has…”The Last Supper” is set in 200BC, but some have claimed it is an allegory for Mao Zedong's gradual seizure of power. That delayed its release from summer to fall, making it eligible this year. Reviews were better overseas than home in China.  What will China do? Well, they could choose an up-and-coming director (though they usually don’t) with a festival favorite like “A Useless Man” (Shanghai Film Festival; set in the 1930s) or either of a pair of films about women trying to make it in the 1990s- box-office hit “So Young” and the more serious “Feng Shui” (Tokyo). They could also (foolishly) select a nationalist dramedy set in the US, namely “American Dreams in China”, though I don’t think they’re dumb enough to do that....Of note, they had the biggest box-office hit in Mainland China history (“Lost in Thailand”) but that won’t matter at Oscar time. My prediction: it’s “Last Supper” vs. “Back to 1942”…it depends how angry they are at Feng Xiaogang. I predict he’ll get it. 

7. FIJI- Nothing eligible??? Tiny Fiji submitted just one film (the first-ever Fijian feature film) in 2005, but most of their involvement in international cinema is as a shooting location. They do have a local film in production called “Unlimited Tamasa”  (in Hindi, the language of 40% of Fijians) which is scheduled to be completed in July but this slapstick comedy-cum-Bollywood-musical about a magic whitening cream is an unlikely Oscar candidate! Anyway, it probably won't premiere until the next Oscar cycle.


8. HONG KONG- "The Grandmaster" Hong Kong is nearly certain to choose Wong Kar-wai’s “The Grandmaster”, which seems to check all the Oscar boxes- it has been praised for deftly balancing artistic and commercial elements, it was made by a renowned auteur director (Wong Kar-wai)  who has made his first box-office hit, it has big international stars (Zhang Ziyi and Tony Leung) and it opened the Berlin Film Festival where it was warmly received. This martial-arts historical drama focuses on Cantonese martial arts master and hero Ip Man (subject of a series of five HK films recently) in China in the 1930s after the first Sino-Japanese War. On top of all that, “The Grandmaster” will have the Weinstein Brothers behind it, since they’ve bought the US rights. I say “The Grandmaster” is in. Hong Kong typically likes to choose genre action films so I suppose “Cold War” (Opening Film in Busan and Best Picture Winner at the HK Film Awards), about a group of renegade cops, or “Drug War” (by four-time selectee Johnnie To, and Best Picture nominee at the Asian Film Awards), about a drug lord forced to work with police to avoid the death penalty, are both going to be considered…but they’ll find it hard to bring down Wong who has, quite unbelievably, only represented Hong Kong in the race once before.  Rounding out the Top Five possibilities in a fairly weak year for Hong Kong cinema overall: melodrama “Bends” (Cannes 2013, Un Certain Regard) and Chow Yun-fat’s big-budget action movie “Monkey King”, which could benefit from an early Oscar qualifying release before its November premiere. Out of luck: “Journey to the West” may be the biggest hit in Hong Kong history, but it won’t be picked here. Prediction: The Grandmaster

9. INDIA- "The Lunchbox"

10. INDONESIA- "Sang Kiai" Indonesia is the third-largest country in the competition (behind India and China) and film output has climbed to about 80 films per year. As usual, the Indonesians don’t have any obvious Oscar nominees but they do have some well-received films so they’ll probably submit something as they have eight of the past ten years. The Indonesians tend to choose pretty historical dramas over arthouse film festival favorites. As I see it, they have five realistic possibilities: “Atambua 39 Degrees Celsius”,a drama about pro-Indonesia refugees escaping from the East Timorese conflict, “Habibie & Ainun”, a unexpected box-office success about the romance of former President Habibie and his wife, “Nine Summers, Ten Autumns”, an autobiographical rags-to-riches drama about a boy who rises above his station, “Sang Kiai”, a religiously tinged drama starring Indonesian grande dame Christine Hakim, about peaceful opposition to Japanese occupation during WWII, and “What They Don’t Talk About When They Talk About Love”, a festival favorite about blind adolescents. “Atambua” and “9 Summers” are by previously submitted directors (the director of “9 Summers” was selected last year”), “Atambua”, “Habibie”and “Sang Kiai” are the sort of historical dramas the Indonesian Academy traditionally fawns over, while “Love” has been seen most widely overseas (including Sundance and Rotterdam). “Sang Kiai” has starpower, while “Habibie”won Favorite Film at this year’s Film Festival Indonesia. It’s a very tight race but I predict the winner will be “Sang Kiai”, which combines patriotism with high production values. Runner-up: Riri Riza’s emotional “Atambua”. Dark horses include “Dream Obama” about a child going to the same school where President Obama studied many years before, “Mursala”, which overcame a lawsuit barring its release and which tells a cultural story about the nation's Batak minority, “Rectoverso”, an omnibus film that represented Indonesia at Cannes Film Market but has gotten middling reviews and “Something In the Way”, which though it competed in Berlin Panorama and Hong Kong, was mostly poorly received for its sexually explicit story of a frustrated taxi driver. Having said all that, Indonesia often has some of its strongest releases in August, so perhaps they’ll choose something I haven’t heard of yet.

11. JAPAN- "Shonen H" Japan always chooses a film out of left-field that nobody expects. They ignore their own Film Awards….except when they don’t (their 2008 and 2010 submissions- which incidentally both made the Oscar shortlist- dominated the Japanese Academy Awards, whereas their films in 2009, 2011 and 2012 netted a grand total of two minor Japanese Academy Award nominations and no wins). Sometimes they choose a commercial film that has no chance at Oscar (“Hula Girls”) and sometimes a film that no one seems to like at all (“Our Homeland”). And when they figure out what Oscar likes, they make sure never to send that kind of film again- they haven’t sent a single costume drama since getting nominated for “The Twilight Samurai” and haven’t sent a single gentle, comedy-drama since winning an Oscar for “Departures”. So, I’m about to give up on trying to predict the Japanese. Though I lived there five years, their Academy is bizarre. Three of their top contenders by three of Japan’s top directors won’t premiere until the fall, meaning they’ll be strong contenders next year (Hirokazu Koreeda’s  Cannes drama “Like Father, Like Son”, Takashi Koizumi’s war movie “Eternal Zero” and Koki Mitani’s all-star period piece “Kiyosu Kaigi”) but they'll all be eligible next year. I see seven contenders  (in alphabetical order): “Chorus of Angels”, a mystery-drama about a widowed music teacher (played by Japan’s Meryl Streep) who returns to her small Hokkaido town to meet with six ex-students, Shion Sono’s “Land of Hope”, the best-received of a slew of post-tsunami dramas,  Ryoichi Kimizuka’s “Reunion”, a tender story about a coroner dealing with the bodies of tsunami victims in a makeshift morgue, Yasuo Furuhata’s “Shonen H”, a coming-of-age story about a young boy growing up against the outbreak of World War II, Masayuki Suo’s “Terminal Trust”, about a woman dealing with terminally ill people who choose to end their lives, “Under the Nagasaki Sky”, a drama about modern-day Japanese dealing with death and religion, and “Unforgiven”, starring Oscar-nominee Ken Watanabe in a samurai-era remake of Clint Eastwood’s Best Picture winner. Four of the seven (“Reunion”, “Shonen H”, “Trust” and “Unforgiven”) are by previously submitted directors and Sono is an up-and-coming horror director who may be rewarded for a foray into more serious territory. As I’ve said the Japanese Academy is notoriously bizarre, so I’ll thrown in a few second-tier dark horses, namely: “Beyond the Vigil”, about a man who wreaks havoc when he contacts his comatose wife’s lovers,  “Millennial Rapture”, an overlong, overwrought film that probably wouldn’t be considered if it weren’t the final film made by the late Koji Wakamatsu, hilarious, super-fun comedy “Tug of War” about a misfit women’s team trying to save their factory jobs and “The Wind Rises”, the latest anime from Hayao Miyazaki. I wouldn’t hold much hope out for Takeshi Kitano’s “Outrage Beyond”….Though the film has been the most widely seen Japanese film at festivals this year, it’s a violent sequel and the Academy has never liked Kitano much. The same may go for Yoji Yamada’s “Tokyo Family”….Though Yamada is a beloved Japanese director and Oscar nominee, this remake of the classic “Tokyo Story” has gotten poisonous reviews overseas. Will the fact that “Unforgiven” is a remake of a US classic help or hurt it? Will 79-year old Furuhata’s age help him to be selected? (It didn’t last year when I predicted “Anata e”) I’m predicting that it will, and that Japan will want a more authentically Japanese story than “Unforgiven”. My prediction: “Shonen H”, with “Chorus of Angels” in second, “Reunion” in third, “Unforgiven” in a very close fourth, and “Nagasaki Sky” rounding out the Top Five. I’d love it if “Tug-of-War” makes it, but that’s asking a bit much.

12. KAZAKHSTAN- "Student" Kazakhstan has about 10 eligible films this year, and the front-runners are a pair of dramas that have quietly been building up a reputation for themselves on the international film festival circuit, namely “The Student” (Cannes  Un Certain Regard 2012) and “Harmony Lessons” (Berlin 2013). “The Student” is a re-telling of Dostoevsky’s “Crime and Punishment” set in modern-day Almaty, while “Harmony Lessons” focuses on the increasingly global problem of high-school bullying and, more specifically, the victim's subsequent desire for revenge. The Kazakhs usually like to send flashier films to the Oscars but this year the bigger-budget movies like “Sword of Victory” (about a modern-day kid who helps a medieval army win a war with the help of a magical sword) or all-star romantic musical “When A Dream Comes True” look either too silly (“Sword”) or too lightweight (“Dream”). These two festival favorites will compete alongside “The Old Man and the Steppe”, which hasn’t been seen much outside of Kazakhstan but which is a companion piece to the remarkable “Kelin” which impressed Oscar voters enough to make it to the shortlist (and a probable 8^th place) in 2009-2010. The filmmaking in “The Old Man” looks rather old-fashioned with its tale of an old man and his young apprentice lost in the wild steppes of Kazakhstan, based loosely on Hemingway’s “The Old Man and the Sea”. My prediction: the tight three-way race finds “The Student” in first place, “The Old Man” in second, and “Harmony Lessons” in third, but all are roughly equally likely. Unlikely but possible: boxing drama “Zhol” and time-travel fantasy “Realtor”.

13. KOREA- "The Face Reader" Poor Korea has tried everything. Every year, they choose a brilliant film and every year they inexplicably fail to make the shortlist. They’ve tried auteurs and festival winners (“Pieta”), they’ve tried commercial successes (“Mother”), they’ve gone funny (“Welcome to Dongmakgol”), cerebral (“Secret Sunshine”), schmaltzy (“A Barefoot Dream”) and pretty (“King and the Clown”). They’ve emulated themes from every Best Foreign Film winner in the past ten years (three movies were about relationships during wartime like “The Counterfeiters”, two were mystery-thrillers like “Secret of their Eyes”, three explored ethics under Communism like “Lives of Others”) and NOTHING EVER WORKS. I am deeply greatly to the Korean Film Council for consistently bringing some of the best films in the world to my attention year after year. Keep trying! Now to this year’s race….Korea usually announces a shortlist of six films or so before electing their final nominee. This year’s I predict the six most likely films on the list will be “The Face Reader”, “Jiseul”, “Miracle in Cell No. 7”, “Moebius”, “My Paparotti” and “Nobody’s Daughter Hae-won”. Depending on the size of the list, you might also see a torture drama by a previously submitted director (“National Security”), a gay-themed festival favorite (“White Night”), a fantasy-melodrama about the friends of a girl killed in n accident (“Dear Dolphin”), a crime thriller (“New World”), a drama about the daughter of a prostitute (“Holly”) or a popular fantasy drama (“A Werewolf Boy”), but I think these are all destined to be also-rans. As for the six top contenders, Korea is one of those countries that really tries (unsuccessfully) to get into the head of the Academy voters. That means that the bizarre box-office hit “Miracle in Cell No. 7”, about a mentally challenged man falsely convicted of rape and murder and his daughter’s efforts to set him free, will be out first. If you think it sounds Oscary, you should know it’s actually a raucous comedy. Next to fall will be “Jiseul”, a low-budget B&W drama about the real-life massacre of innocent civilians in the 1950s who were suspected of being North Korean sympathizers. If selected, “Moebius” would be auteur Kim Ki-duk’s third try at an Oscar. He just cut 80 seconds (under extreme protest) to get the Korean censors to approve the film (they objected to scenes of graphic incest) for its September (Oscar qualifying?) release. But Oscar is unlikely to enjoy incest either, and the Korean Film Council is clearly wary of the film, plus Kim was selected last year. “My Paparotti”, sounds like it was made for Oscar- a music teacher whose opera career was cut short due to illness helps reform a violent gang member and grooms him to explore his God-given talent for music. Oscar would give it heaps of awards were it to star Sandra Bullock, but I just don’t think it’s a “big” enough film to succeed here. That leaves us with period piece “The Face Reader” and “Nobody’s Daughter Hae-won”, which competed in Berlin. In the end, I think the beautiful Chosun Dynasty-era sets and costumes and palace intrigue of “The Face Reader” will win out against the more subtle charms of the quiet festival drama about a woman involved in an affair with a married man. I’m feeling confident about “The Face Reader”.

14. KYRGYZSTAN- "Salam, New York" Kyrgyzstan's small film industry held its first National Film Awards in May, with “Princess Nasik”, a drama about a little girl with an active fantasy life beating out last year’s Oscar submission “Empty Home”. I would predict “Princess” for this year except that it appears it was released a few weeks before the deadline, sadly making it ineligible. Kyrgyzstan has been seeing a film renaissance in the past year, although most of this has been in short film production. The biggest film ever made in Kyrgyzstan is going to be “Kurmanjan Datka: Queen of the Mountains”, a biopic of a Kyrgyz noblewoman who helped unite Kyrgyz tribes to fight the Russian Empire in the 19^th century. It has the support of the Ministry f Culture. However, with “Princess” released too early and with “Kurmanjan” coming out too late (early 2014...count on it representing Kyrgyzstan next year....), Kyrgyzstan doesn’t have much left to choose from. Out of the possible contenders, I think “Salam, New York”, a comedy about a Kyrgyz immigrant trying to make it big in New York City, has the edge over “Mystery of Inheritance”, about a rich man who forces his six children to solve a series of puzzles and riddles in order to collect their inheritance. 

 15. MALAYSIA- "Kil" Malaysia rejoined the Oscar race with Shakespearean family drama “Bunohan” last year after a seven-year absence. All the Best Picture nominees at the Malaysian Film Festival film awards this year (including the Best Picture winner, “Bunohan”) were eligible last year.  The Malaysians don’t have an obvious candidate and may sit out again, but they do have a few options: “Juvana” is the feature film sequel to a television series about a group of older teens serving jail time in juvenile hall. The sequel follows one of the boys after his release, and it was a critical and financial success.  “Kil” is a black comedy-thriller about a suicidal man who makes a deal with a mysterious secret organization to help him end his life....His desperate attempts to undo the deal when he falls in love and changes his mind make up the action of the film. “The New Village” is a Chinese-language historical drama about the relocation of suspected Communists to so-called “new villages” in the 1950s, although I’m very skeptical the race-conscious Malaysians will choose a Chinese film to represent the country, no matter how good it is. The biggest Malaysian movie of the year, “Vikingdom”, is in English and thus not eligible. My prediction: “Kil” or nothing.

 

16. MONGOLIA- "Queen Anu" Mongolia recently held its third annual Film Awards on May 16. Though they don’t award a “Best Picture” award, historical drama “Aravt: The Ten Soldiers of Genghis Khan” won the most awards. The film, which was screened in the UK, was released too early in Ulaanbaatar to rep Mongolia at this year’s Oscars, which is a shame. The other two Mongolian films that split most of the major awards are eligible (“Queen Anu” and Korean co-production “Soar Up”) and the trailers for both films are really gorgeous…they look like something from China or Japan rather than from a developing country. If they want to go quirky, they could also send the most popular Mongolian film on the international circuit this year, namely “Mongolian Bling”, about the country’s up-and-coming hip-hop music industry. Less likely: “Scent of Water”, about a stranded Westerner rescued by some adorable children. Mongolia rarely enters the race but there’s a slight chance they’ll send box-office hit 17^th-century costume drama “Queen Anu”. Check out the trailer here. Looks pretty cool....

17. NEPAL- "Uma" Nepal hasn’t sent a movie since 2006 and they reportedly don’t have an official Oscar selection committee due to internal bureaucratic squabbles. That’s a shame because they had a wonderful movie to send last year (“Highway”) which was one of my favorite movies from last year’s DC International Film Festival. If the Nepalis can get their act together, I think they’ll send “Uma”, a thriller-cum-family-drama about a family torn apart by the Maoist insurgency and civil war in the 1990s, with different family members taking opposing sides. Director Tsering Rhitar Sherpa repped Nepal in the 2000 Oscar race, so he may know how to get the authorities to fill out the paperwork. Two of the Best Picture nominees from Nepal’s 2013 Film Awards are eligible- “Ke Ma Timro Sathi Banna Sakchhu” and “Rhythm”- but these both look like ordinary Bollywood musicals. “Rhythm” screened in Australia, so I suppose it has a better shot than “Ke Ma”. Prediction: “Uma”.

 18. NEW ZEALAND- "White Lies" New Zealand sent a Samoan-language film as their first-ever Oscar entry in 2011 and they are almost certain to enter for the second time with “White Lies”, one of the first-ever feature films filmed primarily in the indigenous Maori language of New Zealand (80%). The film, made by the producer of the Oscar-nominated “Whale Rider” is a beautiful period drama about a Maori medicine woman whose traditional medicine is banned by the white authorities, and what happens when she is asked to use her skills to help hide the secret of an upper-class white woman. Count on it to rep New Zealand on the Oscar longlist, unless the Kiwis object to the director being of Mexican nationality (she lives in Auckland). I'm pretty confident they'll send it in.  

 

19. PAKISTAN- "Ishq Khuda". Pakistan last submitted a film a few weeks before President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963. The beleaguered “Lollywood” film industry has been hurt by domestic  security concerns, a lack of quality filmmaking as well as competition from Bollywood (a few Indian releases are allowed in Pakistani cinemas each year, and the rest are available via pirated DVDs), not to mention Hollywood. Last year was a particular bad year for Pakistani releases, although Pakistan is planning a big blitz of domestic releases in July for the Eid holiday. If they choose to return after a 50-year absence, they are most likely to enter the much-hyped Punjabi-language “romantic, spiritual” musical “Ishq Khuda”, which premiered at the Toronto Punjabi Film Festival in May and has some Indian input. It should beat out the competition from political drama “Chambaili: Fragrance of Freedom”. 

 

20. THE PHILIPPINES- "On the Job" The Philippines probably came their closest ever to an Oscar nomination last year, though Toronto fave “Bwakaw” did not end up making the cut. The Pinoys have quite a lot of festival films to choose from this year (they had three films at Cannes) though I’m not sure many of these gritty, low-budget and often divisive efforts have the gravitas to make it to the Final Nine. Confusing things further is that it’s hard to find the release dates for Filipino independent films (which is what they’ve sent five of the past six years) and the fact that they Pinoys tend to release many of their contenders in late summer so as I write this entry (in late June) it’s possible there are films that will come out of nowhere (like last year’s “Bwakaw”). Here are my Top Five predictions: (1)- “Breakaway” (Pusan) is a thriller-drama about the abduction of a child, (2)- “El Presidente” is not an independent film but it an expensive historical one about the Philippines’ first President….it swept most of the Philippines’ countless end-of-year Film Awards (the FAP Awards, the FAMAS Awards, the Star Awards and finished in 2^nd place in the Metro Manila Film Festival) and was praised by the government, (3)-Gil Portes’ “The Liars”, about a baseball team for impoverished youth, (4)-“On the Job” (Cannes) is a gritty crime thriller about two hit men (including a juvenile) that played in Cannes Director’s Fortnight and (5)- Brillante Mendoza’s “Thy Womb” (Berlin) has played at more than a dozen festivals including Venice and Toronto for its story of an infertile woman trying to find a surrogate for she and her husband to have a child. But there are plenty of other possibilities, including “Apparition”, about cloistered nuns living under the Marcos regime, “Dance of the Steel Bars”, a based-on-a-true-story prison dance drama, “Love and Death”, a 16^th century historical drama about Spanish colonization, or any of prolific Adolfo Alix Jr.’s four new films this year (“Mater Dolorosa, “Death March”, “Wildlife” or “Porno”…Alix repped the Philippines in 2007). My prediction:  the Philippine Academy has never cared much for Brillante Mendoza films, so I’m debating between “Breakaway” and “On the Job”….Let’s say “On the Job” for now. The winners at Cinemalaya 2013 may offer more of a clue. For more on Philippines advances into global independent cinema see here.

 

21. SINGAPORE- "Ilo Ilo" Singapore‘s local films have done great at the box-office this past year, with “Ah Boys to Men” (released in November) and “Ah Boys to Men 2” (released in January) beating all box-office records for local films in Singapore history. These two English-language comedies about army life won’t compete for an Oscar, but they do show the popularity of local stories in multi-lingual Singapore. This year, Singapore also won its first feature-film award at Cannes for “Ilo Ilo” (Camera d’Or for Best First Feature), a film about the relationship between a Filipina nanny, her 10-year old Chinese-Singaporean charge, and the boy’s jealous mother, envious of their warming relationship, all set against the background of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. 23-year old director Anthony Chen is a shoo-in to represent Singapore….if the movie qualifies. That's a big if....Like the streets of Singapore, “Ilo Ilo” is in a combination of English and Chinese and is not certain to hit the 50% mark to qualify as a Foreign Language Film. It also has no local release date yet. If “Ilo Ilo” doesn’t qualify, Singapore will likely go with “That Girl in Pinafore (A Singapore Love Story)”, a charming musical teen romance focused on the local Chinese folk music industry in 1992. I believe three other films are eligible- local comedy “Taxi Taxi!”, local horror film “Ghost Child” and violent sexual thriller “Hotel de Sade”- but they won’t figure in the equation. For now, I’m predicting “Ilo Ilo”.

22. SRI LANKA- "Sri Siddhartha Gautama" Sri Lanka's most likely submission this year is clearly Chandran Rutnam’s lavish biography of Lord Buddha, “Sri Siddartha Gautama”, an expensive biopic of the founder of Buddhism. Although reviews have been mixed, the Sri Lankans generally seem proud of the film, and Rutnam was the director of Sri Lanka’s most recent submission in 2009. “Thanha Rathi Ranga”, about the journey of three friends to a region devastated by the recently ended civil war, has gotten somewhat better reviews, but doesn’t have the scale or hype of Buddha’s life story. The arthouse “August Drizzle”, about a female mortician, has gotten film festival play (the others have not), but reviews have been poor since it finally opened domestically in Spring 2013. Prediction: “Siddharta”

23. TAIWAN- "Ripples of Desire" Taiwan has a pretty modest record at the Oscars once you subtract three-time Oscar winner Ang Lee from the equation. The two most hotly anticipated Taiwanese films- Hou Hsien-hou’s martial arts epic “The Assassin” and Wei Te-sheng’s expensive baseball drama “Kano” won’t be released until next year’s race (when Taiwan will have a hard decision!) so there aren’t many strong possibilities. Taiwan is really unclear this year as they have a half-dozen middle-of-the-road titles with no standouts.  My prediction is expensive period drama “Ripples of Desire” just because it’s “big” (their surprise shortlist spot in 2012 was for a big-budget period film) and I can’t figure out which of their other quiet dramas and dramedies they’d otherwise choose. Directed by Zero Chou, famous for her lesbian-themed films, “Ripples of Desire” is about two twin sisters living amidst 17^th century pirates, leprosy and political intrigue. In second place, I’ll guess drama “Together” about a 17-year old boy from a dysfunctional family and his efforts to  fix the problems around him. In third: “Forever Love”, a nostalgic romantic comedy set primarily in the 1960s about a boy visiting his 70-year grandfather who used to work in the Taiwan film industry. Finishing out the Top Five: “Soul”, a thriller (set to open the Taipei Film Festival) about a man who may be a victim of demonic possession, and “To My Dear Granny”, an auto-biographical film about a boy’s relationship with his grandmother. Less likely but still possible in a weak year: youth drama “Triangle Land”, baseball flick “Faithland”, omnibus film “Taipei Factory”, comedy “Will You Still Love Me?” (Tribeca) and kung-fu musical “The Rooftop”.

24. TAJIKISTAN- "Waiting for the Sea" Tajikistan's impoverished film industry hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2005’s delightfully quirky “Sex & Philosophy”. This year, the Tajiks have been represented at several film festivals by “Telegram”, a drama about an actor who returns to his village for his mother’s funeral. At Tajikistan’s local Didor Film Festival, there was also one other Tajik feature- “The Wheel”.  However, I’m going to predict a possible Tajik return with “Waiting for the Sea”, a surreal drama by Bakhtiar Khodoijnazarov who directed Tajikistan’s initial Oscar submission “Luna Papa” in 1999. “Waiting for the Sea” is about a fishing village that is relocated to the desert by a freak storm, and although Tajik input was minimal (The director is Tajik, but the film was co-produced by production companies from six other countries), Khodoijnazarov is arguably the country’s most prominent director so they may try sending it in. For an interesting interview on the current state of Tajikistan’s beleaguered film industry (with “Telegram”’s director), see here.

25. THAILAND- "King Naresuan Part 5" The Kingdom of Thailand has had the biggest-ever box-office hit in their national history (horror-comedy-fairytale “Pee Mak”, which has actually gotten surprisingly positive reviews) but they have been pretty weak when it comes to films that could potentially compete for an Oscar. The Thai Academy typically likes to choose films that positively showcase Thai culture. This year the national censors have been pretty uppity meaning that two long-awaited contenders have been banned (“Fatherland” about the Muslim-Buddhist conflict in Southern Thailand starring Ananda Everingham and “Shakespeare Must Die”, a drama about political intrigues amidst the Thai government, unofficially based on exiled PM Thaksin). Others that feature controversial subjects likely won’t be picked either (political history documentary “Paradoxocracy” by four-time Oscar director Pen-ek Ratanaruang, and indie darling “Karaoke Girl”, about prostitution). The biggest film of the year- the fifth and concluding chapter in the big-budget historical epic "King Naresuan" series-has no release date, while the biggest box-office hit is a horror-comedy about ghosts. Every contender seems somewhat unlikely: “Grean Fictions” is by a previously submitted director but it’s a lighthearted teen comedy; two eligible Best Picture nominees from this year’s Thai Oscars (the Suphannahongsa Awards) seem unlikely- “Yak: The Giant King”, a computer animated film, and “Countdown”, a NYC-set horror film whose trailer features a Jesus Christ figure/pot dealer breaking a Thai girl's finger- both seem limited by their genre. “Koo Kam” sounds perfect- it’s a WWII romance set during the Japanese occupation about a love triangle between a Thai man and woman, and an influential Japanese captain- but reviews were positively poisonous. So, with so many contenders disqualifying themselves, the Thai may have to look beyond the obvious choices- “Tamruad Peun Hode” (literally translated "Tough Gun Cops") is a social drama by the son of Thailand’s most acclaimed director, though there’s little info about it on line, “Tang Wong” is a youth-themed comedy that was warmly received in Berlin’s youth section, and “Together” was an also-ran at the Thai Oscars, but stars the daughter of His Majesty the King of Thailand. My prediction: “Naresuan 5” gets the Thai nod if they release it before September 30 (the Thai are reportedly choosing an auspicious date and may wait until the King's birthday in December), with the Top Four runner-ups in the following order: “Tamruad Peun Hode”, “Together”, “Koo Kam” and “Tang Wong”.

26. VIETNAM- "Losing Way" Vietnam has one of the most difficult races to predict this year. Communist Vietnam prefers to send conservative, patriotic and/or historical films that showcase Vietnam’s rich history and especially their valiant efforts to fight off foreign aggressors, whether that be during medieval times (2011), the French Colonial era (2005 and 2007) or the Vietnam War (2009 and 2012). They had an excellent candidate last year- the privately funded, action-packed hit historical drama “Blood Letter”, winner of this year’s Golden Kite Award for Best Picture- but they selected a poorly received jingoistic Vietnam War film from the National Film Studio instead. This year, film violence and government censorship has become a major issue ever since a hotly awaited film by one of the country’s most popular directors (Vietnam-born, US-raised Charlie Nguyen and his “Gangs of Chinatown”) was banned by the censors for excessive violence. The two biggest films from the National Film Studio this year- “Hot Sand” (Cat Nong) and “Passion” (Dam Me) represented Vietnam at the Hanoi International Film Festival, but they were both panned by critics and won nothing at the Golden Kite Awards despite their official seal of approval. Two other Vietnamese films have seen a fair bit of international play but both of them are privately funded and deal with controversial issues that may make the Vietnamese authorities squeaming about selecting them. “In the Name of Love” played in Toronto and is made by a previously-submitted director, but this story of a woman who secretly has an extramarital affair to have a child with her infertile husband is said to start off well but descend into maudlin melodrama. “Scandal” has gotten better reviews (it won the Critics Award at the Golden Kites over “Blood Letter”, which won nearly everything else) but it focuses on the scandals and backstage dramas of Vietnam’s film industry and media- once again, not something the Vietnamese seem comfortable with. Nor are the two Vietnamese films from the Cannes Film Market very promising- “Once Upon A Time in Vietnam” (the directorial debut of 21 Jump Street alum Dustin Nguyen) and “Race Tracks” (which was also banned for violence before making extensive cuts) are unlikely to be chosen since they are really just action films, while slick thriller “Cold Summer” which may also be seen as too “genre”. One final contender- “Losing Way” (a.k.a. “Lost” or Lac Loi) was produced by a national film studio and did well at the Golden Kites (finishing second place) but it hasn’t been released yet. A premiere is scheduled for September, just before the Oscar cut-off date but Vietnamese films often have trouble meeting the screening criteria so that’s cutting it close. This is one race I’m really curious about. However, I'm predicting the Vietnamese send this family drama ("Losing Way") about the life of a woman from a rural area (and directed by a rare female director), with “Scandal” in second. Or they may choose to avoid controversy entirely and not submit anything at all.  

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

The most likely debut from Asia is "A Guerra da Beatriz" the first-ever feature film from tiny, impoverished TIMOR-LESTE. "Beatriz" is a retelling of Martin Guerre about a woman's loyalty to her lover during the Indonesian occupation that killed one-third of the tiny enclave's population. Also making their first-ever film is the tiny oil-rich Islamic kingdom of BRUNEI, which produced romantic comedy "Ada Apa Dengan Rina". While it's not an Oscary sort of film, one of the advantages of being a small country is that they can send it in anyway. The MARSHALL ISLANDS (pop: 70,000) have also just produced their first-feature film, "The Sound of Crickets at Night", but unfortunately it was released right before the deadline leaving them out of the race.

Other unlikely possibities: BURMA is opening up to the world and could send human trafficking drama "Kayan Beauty", while NORTH KOREA is closing itself up to the world even more but still found time to make a co-production with their Southern neighbors- "The Other Side of the Mountain" is about the forbidden love between a North Korean nurse and a South Korean soldier during wartime. LAOS' "Red Scarf" got both a domestic release and a release in neighboring Thailand for its eerie ghost story set in the country's rural heartland.