Foreign Film Predictions- Final Five

So, I only got four out of nine finalists right. While I'm thrilled that the Academy recognized the brilliance of Mauritanian debutante "Timbuktu" (which I have seen) and the nontraditional brilliant black comedy of Argentina's "Wild Tales" (which I have not seen), I'm disappointed with their selection of "Ida" (a perfectly ordinary film that I virtually forgot the day after I saw it), "Corn Island" (well-made but dull) and "Force Majeure" (not exactly dull but very pretentious).

And of course, like everyone else I made the mistake of predicting "Two Days, One Night", forgetting that Oscar really, really hates les Freres Dardenne. The trailer for "Two Days" looks great, but I must admit I usually hate the brothers too.

So, who will make the Top Five? It will be really close this year....Eight of the nine are really competitive films while the ninth- Georgia's "Corn Island"- was clearly selected by the Elite Committee perhaps due to some sort of coin toss or fetish for learning how one grows corn.

Final Predictions:
Argentina, Mauritania, Poland, Russia and Venezuela

Who I want to be nominated:
Argentina, Estonia, Mauritania, Netherlands and Russia,

TOP TIER-  
1. RUSSIA- "Leviathan"
2. MAURITANIA- "Timbuktu"
3. POLAND- "Ida"

I think these three films are safe because there is a "consensus" they are great movies. Yesterday's Golden Globe win for political critique "Leviathan" (Best Screenplay at Cannes) probably locked up an Oscar nomination for RUSSIA. It's supposed to be both accessible and intelligent, with a great political backstory (though few Oscar voters care about that sort of thing). Formerly an Oscar superpower, this will only be Russia's second nomination in fifteen years. POLAND's "Ida" is probably also safe. Though I fail to understand how the film is any different from dozens of forgotten low-budget Eastern European submissions over the years, the film has been a critical and box-office success, dominating the Foreign Film Awards among year-end American film critics (possibly the only one many of them saw?) and somehow sweeping the European Film Awards as well. I would love to see a surprise snub, but this B&W nun's tale seems safe. MAURITANIA is competing for the first time and "Timbuktu" was the best film I saw at the Busan International Film Festival last year. Focusing on the 2012 jihadist takeover of the ancient Malian city of Timbuktu in 2012, "Timbuktu" is a perfect "Foreign Language Film". It's surprisingly accessible to Western audiences yet exotic enough to entrance. It's grim and sad, but with many moments of humor. Oscar has often honored this type of film and this is a superior effort.

MIDDLE TIER-
4. ARGENTINA- "Wild Tales"
5. VENEZUELA- "Libertador"
6. NETHERLANDS- "Lucia de B." (aka "The Accused")

These three are really close and I'm not sure who will be left out....Let's look at the Pros & Cons:

ARGENTINA's Almodovar-esque black comedy "Wild Tales"
PRO:   Universally liked and a real crowd-pleaser. Probably the best reviews of any film on the list.
CON: It's a comedy competing in what is usually a very serious, humorless category.

NETHERLANDS' pulled-from-the-headlines legal thriller "Lucia de B."
PRO: Solid mainstream Dutch effort. Supremely accessible, relatable. Director Paula van Oest managed a surprise Oscar nomination once before.
CON: No buzz, no awards. Nobody's heard of the film and the film couldn't even manage a Best Picture nomination at the Golden Calf Awards. Too mainstream? (Similarly themed "Omar Killed Me" made the shortlist but failed to advance)

VENEZUELA's historical biopic of Simon Bolivar, "Libertador"
PRO: Expensive, large-scale historical drama with lots of action and costumes. Rumor has it that it received an exceptionally warm reception during its Oscar screening.
CON: Reviews are easily the weakest of these three films, with many saying it's a rather well-made history lesson. Biopics rarely score well in this category since many people don't know much about the subjects. No awards from anywhere.

In the end, I think Argentina's critical acclaim will get them to the finals (After all, Amelie and Almodovar managed comedy nominations). For the fifth slot, it's a virtual tie for 5th between Netherlands + Venezuela plus Estonia and Sweden. Like "Mongol", I think "Libertador"'s production values will see it through for the fifth and final slot.

BOTTOM TIER-
7. ESTONIA- "Tangerines"
8. SWEDEN- "Force Majeure"
9. GEORGIA- "Corn Island"

These three arthouse films are more divisive, meaning they may struggle to get selected for the Top Five. Quite unbelievably, two of the three films have the same obscure topic, focusing on the lives of ordinary civilians living through the civil war in Abkhazia (!)

It should be noted that Estonia and Sweden both made the Top Five at the Golden Globes. "Force Majeure" has been a critical darling among arthouse critics while "Tangerines" has quietly been building buzz. Both of them are definitely in with a chance. SWEDEN's film- "Force Majeure"- also won the Jury Prize at Cannes (Un Certain Regard) but it's pretentious, cerebral, talky plot is exactly the sort of film that may struggle to overcome the last hurdle to make it to the Final Five. ESTONIA's "Tangerines", about two Estonian settlers in Abkhazia caught in the middle of an ethnic civil war between Abkhazians and Georgians, is said to be a very special film. I've heard very good things about it and would love to predict a first nomination for the smallest of the ex-Soviet republics, but there are some who dislike the film meaning that it will probably just miss out on a nomination. The same can't be said about GEORGIA's "Corn Island", a dull film about an old Abkhaz man and his homely, barely clothed teenaged daughter who shelter a Georgian soldier while spending their year growing corn.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

FINAL PREDICTIONS

I’ve been on the road on and off for most of the past two months without a laptop so I haven’t gotten a chance to rank the Eastern Europeans (you can see a quick review at the end of the Post). But the Final Nine are being announced later today so that means it’s time for my Final Predictions.

This was a rough year. With a record 83 countries, it’s nearly impossible to get a handle on all the films competing. There are no locks. Even Mauritania’s “Timbuktu” (which I see as the most likely candidate) could easily be snubbed. With so many high-profile films in play, it may seem stupid to predict dark horses like Bulgaria and Kyrgyzstan, but I’ve got a hunch we'll see one or both of them on the Final List.

A few words about "Ida", which has somehow emerged as the front-runner for the Oscar. For those of you who haven't seen it, “Ida”, a well-lit, pleasant but forgettable B&W film from Poland. Frankly, I don’t understand all the excitement. Since when does pretty cinematography equal an Oscar? I have been predicting a surprise snub for “Ida” but its recent win at the European Film Awards and its nomination at the Golden Globes show the film clearly has a great deal of love (and momentum). I could pretend it’s the Jewish WWII subject matter, but frankly far superior films (like Hungary’s unrecognized “Fateless”) on that subject have been ignored by the committee before. So, I really don't understand....I still am not sure “Ida” can crack the Top Six but the Elite Committee is probably ready and willing to save it. But I hope not. One interesting possible scenario: BULGARIA’s Jewish themed WWII story “Bulgarian Rhapsody” (which I hear is quite good) does make the Top Six making a snub for “Ida” more palatable, and making room for "Wild Tales". Black comedy "Wild Tales" is probably the best-reviewed film on the whole list, but it will struggle to find a fan base. I hope it replaces "Ida". Fingers crossed.

FINAL PREDICTIONS
1. MAURITANIA- “Timbuktu”
2. BELGIUM- “Two Days, One Night”
3. ISRAEL- “Gett: The Trial of Viviane Absalem”
4. SPAIN- “Living is Easy with Eyes Closed”
5. KYRGYZSTAN- “Kurmandjan Datka: Queen of the Mountains”
6. POLAND- “Ida” (I hope I’m wrong!)
7. RUSSIA- “Leviathan”
8. BULGARIA- “Bulgarian Rhapsody”
9. ESTONIA- “Tangerines”

EQUALLY LIKELY ALTERNATES:
10. CANADA- “Mommy” (elite committee only)
11. CZECH REPUBLIC- “Fair Play”
12. ARGENTINA- “Wild Tales” (fingers crossed! I really hope I’m wrong!!)
13. ITALY- “Human Capital”
14. NETHERLANDS- “The Accused” (Lucia de B.)
15. GREECE- “Little England”

DARK HORSES
16. SWEDEN- “Force Majeure”
17. UKRAINE- “The Guide”
18. TURKEY- “Winter Sleep”
19. HUNGARY- White God”
20. SOUTH KOREA- “Sea Fog” (Haemoo)
21. VENEZUELA- “Libertador”

LONG SHOTS
22. LEBANON- “Ghadi”
23. CUBA- “Conducta”
24. GERMANY- “Beloved Sisters”
25. ETHIOPIA- “Difret”
26. PHILIPPINES- “Norte, the End of History”
27. ICELAND- “Life in a Fishbowl”
28. MALTA- “Simshar”
29. AUSTRALIA- “Charlie’s Country”
30. KOSOVO- “Three Windows and a Hanging”

HONORABLE MENTION
31. CHILE- “To Kill A Man”
32. GEORGIA- “Corn Island”
33. MEXICO- "Cantinflas"
34. PERU- "Gospel of the Flesh"
35. DENMARK- "Sorrow and Joy"
36. PALESTINE- "Eyes of a Thief"

No, I haven't forgotten "The Way He Looks", "Saint Laurent" or "Concrete Night". They're not contenders.

We'll find out later today!

EASTERN EUROPE RANKINGS (if I'd had time)
NO CHANCE IN HELL: Croatia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY: Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Latvia, Slovakia
MIDDLE CANDIDATES: Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Romania
DARK HORSES: Czech Republic, Hungary, Ukraine
FRONT-RUNNERS: Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland, Russia

FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS- A look at the 20 Nominees from Canada, Latin America & Africa

83 submissions?! Only a few years ago 50 films was considered to be a record, so this number is truly astounding. Literally almost every film-making country in the world is here, including several that make films mostly in English. You have to feel for the Academy, which now has to schedule double the screenings in a shorter period than before (shortlist used to be announced in mid-January....Now it's mid-December).

Of course it’s true that half of these films don’t actually have the slightest chance at getting a nomination...But when small countries send their best film to Hollywood, foreign movie fans like me and many others go out in search of them. I’ve seen so many hidden gems this way- Kazakhstan’s “Kelin”, Hong Kong’s “The Day the Sun Turned Cold”, Netherlands’ “Borgman” and Estonia’s “Klass” just to name a few....And that's why I keep up the effort to see everybody's film. The Foreign Film Award is a wonderful way to get publicity for smaller filmmaking industries- which is why I’m so confused as to this year’s two major drop-outs, Albania and Kazakhstan.

One big trend this year is REALITY....With four documentaries (Luxembourg, Panama, Portugal, Switzerland) seven biopics (France, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, Morocco, Venezuela), four "ripped from the headlines" dramas (Chile, Ethiopia, Malta and the Netherlands), one "true story" costume drama (Germany) and no less than THREE autobiographical stories about the lives of their directors (Costa Rica, Denmark and Latvia), not to mention several others with some basis in historical events (Bolivia, New Zealand, etc.), there's less fiction than usual. It'll be interesting to see if any of these "true" stories break through. I tend to find original stories do better in this category (unless they're about World War II).

So, first let’s take a look at the films from The Americas and Africa. Both regions sent a record number of films- (15 + 5), including the return of Bolivia after a 5-year absence, and the first-ever submissions from Mauritania and Panama.

NO CHANCE IN HELL

20. MOROCCO- “The Red Moon”
19. PANAMA- “Invasion”
18. EGYPT- “Factory Girl”
17. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “Cristo Rey”
16. COSTA RICA- “Princesas Rojas" (Red Princesses)

One of this year’s least likely Oscar contenders is the obscure ”La lune rouge” (The Red Moon), a biopic from MOROCCO about the acclaimed blind musician/composer Abdessalam Amer whose career collapsed during the political turmoil of the 1960s and 1970s. Where to start? First of all, American audiences have no idea who Amer is, and they also have no connection to his music (including his famous-in-Morocco tune “La lune rouge”). They probably have even less context to understand the 1971 coup d’etat prominently featured in the film. Add to that the fact that the production values look kind of old-fashioned and hardly anyone has either seen or heard of the film (zero buzz) and La lune rouge is one of the year's biggest non-starters.

Unlike Morocco's 1971 coup, American audiences will definitely have more familiarity with the historical events depicted in PANAMA's documentary “Invasion”. After all, the 1989 US invasion of Panama was only 25 years ago- well within memory- and the documentary is supposed to be a thought-provoking one, exploring the memories and experiences of different people from different social classes whose “true stories” about the invasion all seem to contradict one another. Despite good reviews, it’s a documentary and it’s fairly short (70 minute) meaning I can’t see it advancing against weightier and more sophisticated fare.

Two of Latin America’s smaller countries- COSTA RICA and the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- are also out of luck. “Red Princesses” (Berlinale 2013), a small-scale drama about two girls growing up in a family of Communist revolutionaries during the Cold War, has been praised for the performance of its child actresses but higher-profile films with similar subject matter (“Kamchatka”, “Clandestine Childhood”) have failed to advance, and reviews haven't been as strong as those Argentinian films. “Cristo Rey” is a Dominican re-telling of Romeo & Juliet with overt racial overtones about two half-brothers (one with a Dominican mother, the other with a deported Haitian one) pursuing the same girl in the Dominican inner city. It looks interesting but critics say the film is "okay" but flawed.

That leaves EGYPT and their supposedly feminist drama “Factory Girl”. It's about a poor factory worker who daydreams about her handsome supervisor only to find her reputation destroyed after a rumor spreads that she is pregnant with his child. Though the film has been well-received in Arab fests, Western critics have not been kind. They criticize both the performance of the lead actor and a story they say does not translate well to Western audiences (they see it as misogynist rather than feminist). Egypt has been submitting films since the 1950s with no success, and "Factory Girl" won’t change things.

PROSPECTS NOT MUCH BETTER:

15. BOLIVIA- “Olvidados” (The Forgotten)
14. SOUTH AFRICA- “Elelwani”
13. COLOMBIA- “Mateo”
12. ECUADOR- “Silencio en la tierra de los sueños" (Silence in Dreamland)
11. URUGUAY- “Mr. Kaplan”
These five obscure films haven’t won any awards internationally and so will struggle to make an impact in a field of 83 films. I’ve seen URUGUAY's droll “Mr. Kaplan”, a comedy about an elderly Jewish man who escaped the Holocaust as a child, who tries to find meaning in his life by kidnapping an elderly German man he suspects (without any proof) of being a Nazi. Although some like the film, I found it mostly forgettable- not funny enough as a drama and not dramatic enough as a drama (I felt the director's previous "A Bad Day to Go Fishing" balanced the two genres better). COLOMBIA's “Mateo” is about a gangbanger teenager whose crime boss uncle asks him to infiltrate a local actor’s troupe. Despite his rough past, Mateo develops strong relationships with the people he is supposed to be spying on. It has also gotten some good reviews, although critics consistently point out this is “a youth film with a moral”, with one even comparing it (albeit favorably) to an After-School special. Ouch. BOLIVIA 's “Olvidados” (The Forgotten) is an historical drama about a dying General confessing the sins that he and the Bolivian Government committed during Bolivia’s 1970s military dictatorship to his adult son on his deathbed, including abductions, arbitrary arrest and kidnappings. The film boasts Damian Alcazar (one of Mexico's greatest actors) and might be well-suited to a Human Rights Film Festival. However, the political subject matter may alienate some Academy memebrs and reviews have been decidedly mixed at home in Bolivia.

From South America to Africa, we have “Elelwani” the first-ever film made in the Venda language and the first South African Oscar submission ever to be directed by a Black director. Though SOUTH AFRICAis usually a contender and though the feminist plot is interesting (a modern young woman’s dreams of studying abroad are rudely interrupted when her traditionalist parents suddenly announce her engagement to an elderly nobleman in their home village), reviewerss note that is definitely a work of a director still learning his craft. I’ve heard it’s well-meaning but rather average, with many comparing it to a telefilm.

Finally, ECUADOR's “Silence in Dreamland” is the hardest film to rank...Although it beat out Berlinale favorite “Feriado” to represent Ecuador, there’s virtually no information about it online! The film is about the life of a deaf widow who retreats into a world of fantasy after the death of her husband. Clearly the life of a deaf woman presents certain cinematic challenges (see “Be With Me”) and the trailer looks decidedly arty, albeit with some lovely music. It’s just hard to see this getting very far, but with no reviews, one never knows!



UNLIKELY CANDIDATES:

10. ETHIOPIA- “Difret”
9. CHILE- “To Kill A Man”
8. PERU- “Gospel of the Flesh”
7. BRAZIL- “The Way He Looks”
6. MEXICO- “Cantinflas”



I’ve been hearing Brazil, Chile and Ethiopia mentioned frequently in the “shortlist” conversation (and Mexico's "Cantinflas" a bit less so), but these four films are all likely to be passed over this year due to different obstacles. Let’s start with the high-profile “Cantinflas” from MEXICO. This biopic of one of Mexico’s most respected comedians quickly got a US distributor and a US release. Working against it? Well, no one really loves the film. Reviews have ranged from “positive but unenthusiastic” to decidedly negative. In its favor? Well, easy/unchallenging Mexican soap operas like “Father Amaro” and “Tear this Heart Out” managed to make the shortlist with similarly unenthusiastic reviews. It also features enough quite a bit of English to make the film an easier watch for American audiences (but not enough to risk disqualification). It will probably finish better than most people expect but “Cantinflas” would have a better shot in a weaker year.

BRAZIL's LGBT-youth drama “The Way He Looks” has the opposite problem. Everyone seems to really like the film. It’s rarely gotten a bad review for its sweet story about a blind teen dealing with first love at his school. As touched as everyone is by the story, LGBT films rarely score here and most people admit that as charming as the film is, it’s really just a well-done coming-of-age story...not a legitimate awards contender. The elderly large committee may be turned off by the gay angle, and the elite committee will be looking for something more edgy.

CHILE's tense thriller “To Kill A Man” arranged an early release to represent Chile, easily winning the nod (and doubtlessly causing annoyance to surreal drama “Dance of Reality” and family mystery “Illiterate” which lost their chance). The violent revenge film about a meek middle-class father avenging a crime perpetrated against his family is said to be disturbing and unpleasant to watch. While the filmmaking may be good, this is not the sort of genre usually honored at the Oscars, and many viewers simply don't like it. Too divisive.

ETHIOPIA's “Difret” also deals with the issue of justifiable homicide. Based on a true story, “Difret” deals with a teenaged girl who is put on trial for murder when she kills an older man trying to abduct her into a forced marriage. The title is a play on words in Amharic...it can mean “courage” or “rape”. “Difret” has gotten a lot of buzz because of executive producer Angelina Jolie and because it’s exotic and because we rarely see films from Ethiopia on the international film festival circuit. Despite winning two big Audience Awards (Sundance and Berlinale Panorama) this year, most film critics say “Difret” is primarily a culturally interesting film with a powerful cultural message.

Last in this group is PERU's “Gospel of the Flesh”, a gritty “Amores Perros”-style drama about the intersecting lives of three men (an undercover cop, a football coach and a bus driver who has found religion) as they deal with personal struggles tragedies and moral dilemmas in modern-day Lima. Unlike the other four, this film has no buzz, but those who have seen it say it’s very good. Ultimately, it will probably place better than we expect (perhaps 25th or 30th out of the 83 films), but probably won’t contend for a nomination.

DARK HORSES

5. CUBA- “Conducta” (Behavior)
4. VENEZUELA- “Libertador” (Liberator)
3. CANADA- “Mommy”

Canada, Cuba and Venezuela all made smart choices this year and are hoping to grab the eighth or ninth spot on the list. Cuba and Venezuela face an uphill climb.

VENEZUELA's "Libertador" is a rumored 50-million dollar biopic of national hero Simon Bolivar. With excellent production values, lavish battle scenes and gorgeous costumes and the added bonus of an interesting, complicated historical figure, critics have mostly praised the film. However, biopics rarely score here (American viewers may not be overly familiar with South America's most important historical figure) and even fans of the film note the inherent impossibility of condensing Bolivar's life into two hours. Key reviewers note that it lacks the "spark" (Variety) to reach greatness. From CUBA comes "Conducta" a simple, low-budget tale about the relationship between a poor boy from a dysfunctional family and his elderly teacher who's being forced into retirement. No battle scenes, just a good story, simply told. I haven't seen the film, but I've heard it's very good. If this were ten years ago, with 50 countries and a traditional committee that loves simple stories about kids, "Conducta" might be in with a chance. Now, this small film will probably just be recognized as a good film among two or three dozen good films.

That leaves Xavier Dolan's "Mommy" from CANADA. Dolan is brilliant and "I Killed My Mother" (which Canada submitted) and "Heartbeats" (which Canada did NOT) deserved Oscar nominations. Cannes Jury Prize winner "Mommy"- about a mother dealing with a hyperactive, foul-mouthed, occasionally violent, occasionally loveable teenager- is not my favorite Dolan film, but it does seem to be the most accessible. The reason I love Dolan's films are their flawed but completely relatable characters. In "Mommy", I simply didn't LIKE Steve. In any case, I'm worried that Oscar's elderly crowd just doesn't GET Dolan and his hyper-verbose ultra-modern screenplays...Will the Elite Committee save him and continue Canada's obscene winning streak (6 films shortlisted in 8 years)? They very well may....And despite being a pre-nomination favorite, that's probably "Mommy"'s only chance.

FAVORITES

2. ARGENTINA- “Wild Tales”
1. MAURITANIA- “Timbuktu”

With contenders from Argentina, Canada and Mexico, who would have guessed that this group's top contender is from MAURITANIA??? Yet France-based Abderrahmane Sissako's brilliant, gentle, touching, sad, funny, shocking and human "Timbuktu" is surely one of the best films on the list, but being "good" doesn't guarantee you a trip to Hollywood. "Timbuktu" however checks all the right boxes. Its story of the Islamic takeover of Timbuktu (in neigboring Mali) is relevant and topical, but doesn't require any deep knowledge of the Malian politican situation. It's artistic and beautiful yet surprisingly accessible. It's serious, but has a sense of humor. I was lucky to see "Timbuktu" at the Busan Film Festival and I'm fairly certain this one will be on the list. If so, Mauritania will become the first country to get an Oscar nomination on their first try since Nepal's "Caravan" achieved the feat in 1999/2000.

As for ARGENTINA, I'm a little less sure. Black comedy "Wild Tales" is wildly popular and reviews have been great. The film has won numerous Audience Awards (though few other awards) at festivals around the world for its six comedic stories of love and revenge. I can't wait to see it. There's a big debate as to whether or not this Tarantino/Ritchiesque film will be able to snag a nomination. The large committee prefers serious but non-challenging films. The elite committee is rumored to like more artistic, festival fare. "Wild Tales" doesn't seem to fall into either of these categories and risks being left off entirely. Although Oscar doesn't usually like comedies, they can certainly be great films. This one is on the bubble but it's so well-liked it will certainly be a big threat.

Now, the statistics:

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Seven. 13 films are in Spanish while 2 are in Arabic. That leaves one each in Amharic (Ethiopia), French (Canada), Portuguese (Brazil) and the first-ever feature film in Venda (South Africa). Mauritania’s “Timbuktu” is in six languages, primarily Hassaniya (a distinct dialect of Arabic) and Tamazight.

Highest profile film: Most people would say Argentina’s buzzy black comedy “Wild Tales”, co-produced by Pedro Almodovar, though the Canadians might disagree.

Number of American/African countries participating this year: 20.

Number of debuts: 2. Mauritania and Panama.

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 28

Number of countries opting out: Almost nobody! This year saw record participation from both regions. Of the countries that didn’t submit, Chad and Nicaragua probably had no films that met all the eligibility requirements and Puerto Rico is no longer invited by AMPAS. The remaining countries (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Guatemala, Kenya and Tanzania) have only ever submitted one film apiece.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Four

Number of countries I predicted correctly: I did pretty good! I got 10/20 correct (Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Rep., Egypt, Ethiopia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay) and would have gotten three more (Brazil, Chile and Venezuela) were it not for slippery release dates (Brazil’s “Casa Grande” didn’t open in time...Chile’s “To Kill A Man” did an early qualifying release). Ecuador and Morocco admittedly caught me completely by surprise.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've seen the films from Canada (B+), Mauritania (A-) and Uruguay (C). Now I’m most excited to see front-runner “Wild Tales” and Ethiopia’s “Difret”.

Feature Debuts: 5: Laura Astorga (Costa Rica), Maria Gamboa (Colombia), Zeresenay Mehari (Ethiopia), Tito Molina (Ecuador) and Daniel Ribeiro (Brazil)

Number of Comedies: 2- Argentina and Uruguay

Number of Animated Films, Documentaries or Horror Films: 1 documentary- Panama’s “Invasion”

Oscar History: The only prior Oscar nominee is Mexican director Carlos Bolado (this year representing Bolivia) who was nominated for Best Documentary Feature for co-directing “Promises” in 2002.

Six of the twenty directors have been entered in the Foreign Oscar race before. Ironically, Xavier Dolan (Canada), Ernesto Daranas (Cuba) and Alvaro Brechner (Uruguay) all faced off five years ago for “I Killed My Mother”, “Fallen Gods” and “A Bad Day to Go Fishing” respectively. Dolan definitely deserved an Oscar nomination, Daranas definitely didn’t while Brechner was on my bubble. Also submitted before: Leticia Tonos (“Love Child”, Dominican Republic, 2011), Mohamed Khan (“In the Heliopolis Flat”, Egypt, 2007) and Alberto Arvelo (twice for Venezuela, 1997/2001 for “One Life & Two Trails” and “House with a View of the Sea”).

Out of the 20 countries, three (Argentina, Canada and South Africa) have won the award while two more (Brazil and Mexico) have been nominated numerous times. Chile, Cuba and Peru have earned a single nomination each.

Number of Female Directors: The three Latina ladies competing are Laura Astorga (Costa Rica), Maria Gamboa (Colombia) and Leticia Tonos (Dominican Republic).

Oldest and Youngest Directors: It’s difficult to believe Xavier Dolan is only 25 (this is his fifth film). He’s the youngest out of all the 83 competitors this year. The oldest is Mohamed Khan of Egypt, who just turned 72.

Familiar Faces: American audiences will be most likely to recognize Michael Imperioli (“The Sopranos”) who plays the American agent in Mexico’s “Cantinflas". Venezuela’s Edgar Ramirez plays the title role in “Libertador”, and he has recently done a lot of English-speaking work in the States (“Bourne Ultimatum”, “Carlos”). Co-star Iwan Rheon is on "Game of Thrones". Argentina’s Ricardo Darin (“Wild Tales”) is also a familiar face.

Although not household names, two notable Spanish actors are in the mix: Goya winner Oscar Jaenada (“Cantinflas” but also "Pirates of the Caribbean 4") and Dario Grandinetti (“Wild Tales”) who some will remember from “Talk to Her”. Anne Dorval (“Mommy”), Damian Alcazar ("Olvidados") and Hani Abdel (“Factory Girl”) are well-known in their native Quebec, Mexico and Egypt respectively.

Special mention goes to Frank Perozo (“Cristo Rey”) who has co-starred in four Dominican submissions in a row, not to mention the final two submissions from neighboring Puerto Rico.

Having said all that, the most familiar “face” was actually behind-the-scenes...That’s Oscar winner Angelina Jolie, executive producer of Ethiopia’s “Difret.

Controversies and Changes: A virtually controversy-free year! There were some rumblings in Venezuela that the voting process was politically motivated. Jose Ramon Novoa (who repped Venezuela twice) and a few other unknown directors withdrew their films from consideration in protest but the fact is that this was always a two-way race between “Libertador” and “Bad Hair”. For the second year in a row, Venezuela ignored an acclaimed LGBT film but truth be told “Libertador” has the best chance to get a nomination for Venezuela this year, so I think Venezuela made the right choice (unlike last year, when they should have chosen the delightful “My Straight Son”/”Azul y no tan rosa” which became the first-ever Venezuelan film to win a Goya). The only other controversy is that Puerto Rico continues to be banned for no good reason.

Omissions: No mind-blowing snubs this year...Probably the most surprising omission is that there is no film from Nigeria. Nigeria had announced earlier in the year that they would be participating in the Oscar race for the first time, but they later changed their mind. Other than that, ”Bad Hair” (Toronto 2013) from Venezuela and “Feriado” (Berlin 2014) certainly had their supporters, particularly in the LGBT community. And I was a bit surprised to see Bolivia and Chile ignore “Yvy Maraey” (which got sent to the Goyas) and “The Dance of Reality”, made by two of their most celebrated national directors, as well as South Africa’s box-office hit thriller “iNumberNumber”. Also out of the running: the prolific Xavier Dolan defeated himself meaning no Oscar for “Tom at the Farm” and Viggo Mortensen couldn’t beat “Wild Tales” with period drama “Jauja”.

Last year's race: Last year, these regions sent a total of 15 films. I only saw 3- the outstanding, funny, sad and superbly charming “Gloria” (A) from Chile, the surprisingly good character study “GriGris” (B+) from Chad and the mostly forgettable “Neighbouring Sounds” (C+) from Brazil. I will see Canada’s “Gabrielle” this week.

OSCAR SUBMISSION PREDICTIONS 2014-2015, A-C

It's that time of year again.....Here are my predictions for what each country will choose as its Foreign Oscar submission. Over the years, 108 countries have sent films to the Oscars and this list considers each of them equal, whether they've sent a film each and every year since 1956 (like France) or a single film in the 1970s (like Cote d'Ivoire).

 

I've left off China for now. Any ideas?

 

Also...this year, I tried to give a little more info on each country's domestic film industry in 2014. Let the games begin!

 1. AFGHANISTAN- "Soil and Coral" Afghanistan has submitted seven films in the twelve years since the fall of the Taliban, despite a desperate shortage of funding, a precarious security situation (increasing costs) and a lack of cinemas that will conform to AMPAS screening requirements. Despite no Foreign Oscar nominations yet, the Afghans have defied the odds gotten and a Best Short Film nomination (“Buzkashi Boys”) and won a Golden Globe (“Osama”). In fact all four Afghan submissions I have seen were some of the best of the year. Afghan submissions mostly depend on expat directors (Barmak Akram and Atiq Rahimi are based in France…Sonia Cole and the late Jawed Wassel came to the USA as young refugees). While they occasionally feature foreign talent (Golshifteh Farahani, Jack Scalia), they more often feature talented locals. As for 2014, Siddiq Barmak has a new film in production (“Eclipse”) but otherwise things have been pretty quiet. I know of three films that have come out recently, but I'm not sure any of them qualify- “Icy Sun” and “A Man’s Desire For a Fifth Wife”, both taboo-breaking films about violence and sexual assault against women, each had their Afghan premieres in Spring 2013 (too early to compete this year), but I don’t think they ran for seven days. That means they could qualify if they organize a seven-day run specifically to compete for the Oscars (like “Black Tulip” in 2010). There’s also “Soil and Coral”, a drama co-starring Marina Golbahari (the little girl from “Osama”, all grown up). It’s directed by an Iranian but features a mostly Afghan crew in a story about an Afghan in Iran who returns home for his daughter’s wedding. That’s my pick, if indeed they send anything at all.

2. ALBANIA- "Amsterdam Express" Albania only had one eligible film last year (“Agon”), which was also their only domestic feature in competition at their National Film Festival last year. This year, they have more eligible films to choose from, although I see only one legitimate Oscar contender, namely “Amsterdam Express” by one of Albania’s most famous directors, Fatmir Koci. I remember Koci’s grand “Time of the Comet” failed to be submitted due to some sort of technicality a few years ago (I think Albania was confused about eligibility dates, but I don’t remember the whole story) so Koci is obviously keen. “Amsterdam Express” is a gritty thriller about an Albanian émigré caught up in the world of drugs and human trafficking while seeking out a better life abroad. Trailer looks quite good. Runner-up “Bota” (Karlovy Vary), an Italian co-production about a café in desolate, rural Albania. The Albanians usually send films with local heartthrob Nik Xhelilaj- he has two films out this year, but one is in English and the other still being filmed (“The Angels Are Far Away”). You can pencil in “Angels” as a near certainty next year's race.

 3. ALGERIA- "Le crépuscule des ombres" Algeria (and Oscar) loves anything by Rachid Bouchareb. However, since “Two Men in Town” (starring Harvey Keitel, Forest Whitaker and Brenda Blethyn) is completely in English, that won’t be an option for them this year. The Algerians have four viable candidates, two of which have screened in Algiers but it appears none of them have gotten a seven-day qualifying run in cinemas. I predict Algeria will organize a qualifying run for “Le crépuscule des ombres”, the first film by 80-year old Palme d’Or winner Mohammed Lakhdar-Hamina in nearly thirty years. It’s an epic film set in the Algerian desert in the early 1960s focusing on an Algerian freedom fighter, a French colonial commander and a young French soldier sympathetic to the Algerian cause. Lakhdar-Hamina was the Bouchareb of the 1970s and 80s and remains the only African or Arab Palme d’Or winner to date. He faces stiff competition from “The Man From Oran” (Lyes Salem), following the lives of two friends beginning in the heady days of independence in the 1960s to Algeria’s subsequent decline. If neither one of those gets a release, it’s possible they’ll send slice-of-life, multi-story drama/mystery “Rooftops” by controversial Merzak Allouache (Venice 2013) or Kabyle-language historical biopic “Fadhma N’Soumer”. However, Allouache may have stepped on too many toes in his censorship battles recently. Lakhdar-Hamina’s reputation should see him through.

 

4. ARGENTINA- "Wild Tales" (Relatos salvajes) Argentina had four films premiering in Cannes and four more premiering in Berlin. That’s a pretty amazing lineup, even for Argentina which is the only Latino country ever to win an Oscar (twice). With so many titles in play, it’s also amazing that one film has 95% of the buzz. Premiering in the main competition of Cannes, black comedy “Wild Tales” stars Argentine superstar Ricardo Darin, it's produced by Spanish superstar Pedro Almodovar and has already been picked up for a US release by Sony Pictures Classics. It’s a genuine crowd pleaser featuring a dark anthology of six crazy stories about what happens when people lose their temper and seek (hilarious) revenge. It is true that the Argentine Academy has been mostly humorless lately. The past eight years, they’ve sent a pretty dour, humorless bunch of dramas, but I still think “Tales” is a safe bet. The Argentine Academy votes separately for the Oscar and Goya nominees. We can expect to see some votes for Daniel Burman’s latest romantic comedy, “The Mystery of Happiness”, as well as two big star vehicles, both of which were featured in Cannes, namely Gael Garcia Bernal’s abduction western “El Ardor” and Viggo Mortensen’s period drama “Jauja”, about a Danish father and daughter in 19^th century Argentina. The latter won the Fipresci Award in the Un Certain Regard section.  Less likely: Berlin slice-of-life drama “Third Side of the River” and domestic abuse drama “Refugiado”. Out of the running: gay-themed romance “Hawaii”, by the director of my favorite Argentine film of all time, “Plan B”.
 

 

5. ARMENIA- "The Romanticists" Armenia rarely sends films to the Oscars (just 4 films in the 20 years since they were recognized as independent). Ironically the big winner at this year’s Hayak Awards was “Paradjanov”, a Ukrainian co-production which represented Ukraine last year. Two other films were nominated in the Best Film category, namely- (A)- “The Romanticists” which won Best Screenplay for its realist modern-day tale of an aspiring actor and his circle of friends during some sort of vacation weekend, and (B)- “The Splinter” which won Best Cinematography for its more traditional Armenian story (read: abstract, surreal and confusing) of a dying man confronted by an angel. "The Romanticists" is also one of only three local features being shown at the Golden Apricot Film Festival in July, alongside their second possibility, multi-strand drama "The Abode". Dark horse: long-awaited historical animated film “Anahit” is waiting for a release date, but I think "The Romanticists" will be sent.

6. AUSTRALIA- "Charlie's Country" Australia is obviously a mostly English-speaking country, but they have sent seven films to the Foreign Language Oscar race since 1996. I've seen them all and the worst of the lot- “Samson & Delilah”- inexplicably made it to the 9-film shortlist five years ago. Three of their films were about immigrants trying to adjust to life Down Under (from Hong Kong, China and Spain), two were about Australia’s indigenous Aborigines, and two were foreign films made by Australian directors working abroad (about Germany and Laos). The Aussies often have the Oscar committee reaching for their stopwatch (films must be 50% in a Foreign Language) and that will probably be the case again this year. The obvious choice is “Charlie’s Country”, another aboriginal tale by Rolf de Heer (whose “Ten Canoes” was sent in 2006) which just won Best Actor at Cannes and which has gotten very strong overall reviews. Looking at the trailer, it appears to be roughly 50-50 in English and Yol-Ngu…let’s hope it meets the 50% mark. If not, the mostly likely choice is “Arrows of the Thunder Dragon”, a Dzongkha-language Australian film made in Bhutan or, less likely “Wanderers”, about Chinese students living in Australia.

 

7. AUSTRIA- "The Dark Valley" Austria had an unusually prominent presence in various sections at this year’s Berlinale (“Beloved Sisters”, “Cracks in Concrete”, “Fever” and “Macondo”) and “Amour Fou” appeared in Un Certain Regard at Cannes. Two Best Picture nominees from this year’s Austrian Film Awards (“October-November” and “Soldier Jane”…they both lost) are also eligible. Add in one critically acclaimed piece by a previously submitted director (Houchang Allahyari’s “The Last Dance”), two acclaimed genre pieces (rom-com “High Performance” and horror-thriller “I Spy, I Spy”) and two gorgeous and expensive period pieces set in the remote mountains (“The Dark Valley” and “Silent Mountain”) and Austria has a surprisingly long list comprising a dozen contenders with no real front-runner. So what will the two-time winners choose? I think we can safely narrow it down to four:“Amour Fou”, “Macondo”, “The Dark Valley” and “The Last Dance”. For some reason, the Austrian Academy prefers gritty modernism to costume dramas (they haven’t chosen any period pieces in decades, other than the two Stefan Ruzowitzky films, including Oscar winner “The Counterfeiters”) . That would seem to work against dark comedy “Amour Fou” (set in 1811 Berlin) about a young poet trying to convince his beautiful cousin to enter into a suicide pact, and “The Dark Valley” (set in 1865 in the Tyrol Mountains) a “Western” about a stranger who wanders into an unwelcoming town filled with secrets. The Austrian Academy does like immigrant stories, which may help “Macondo”, a docudrama about Chechen refugees or “The Last Dance”(directed by an Iranian émigré), about a young man who is arrested and whose story (involving a relationship with an eccentric old woman at the hospital where he works) is told in flashbacks. Negative review from Variety notwithstanding, I think the Austrians will choose “The Dark Valley” which has the same bleak style of recent Austrian submissions, and which recently won Second Prize at the German Lola Awards and which has already brokered a US distribution deal with Film Movement. In second place, “Macondo”, with “Amour Fou”, “The Last Dance” and Berlin love-triangle drama “Beloved Sisters” rounding out the Top Five. 

 

8. AZERBAIJAN- "Chameleon" Azerbaijan's Oscar submissions are typically the most obscure ones of the longlist…They’re rarely on the film festival circuit, making them hard to research. I think the two front-runners are (A)- “Chameleon”, a quiet, unassuming rural drama (just like almost all the Azeri submissions thus far) about a man in financial difficulties selling his house in the countryside and (B)- the awkwardly titled “Don’t Be Afraid, I’m With You 1919”, a Russian co-production made by the national film studio, involving some sort of story about an abduction (I think). Also possible: “Down the River” (Karlovy Vary), about a tense father-son relationship struck by tragedy, and biopic “From the Cradle to Eternity”, based on the memoirs of beloved Soviet crooner Muslim Magomayev. My prediction: “Chameleon”.  

9. BANGLADESH- "Ant Story" Bangladesh has had a great film year despite political violence and instability at home. 2014 will go down in history as one of the first years where Bangladeshis were actually excited about a number of new releases, including Bangladesh’s first sci-fi and horror films and two films described as the most expensive ever made in the country. According to one website, 2014 will see film output treble from 51 to over 150. I predict the Bangladeshis will sent either Liberation War drama “Shongram 1971” or arthouse fantasy “Ant Story” (Dubai 2013). The war for independence in 1971 still makes front-page news in Bangladesh and their first two Oscar submissions were set against the backdrop of the war. “Shongram” co-stars Asia Argento as a British reporter, and is said to be the most expensive war drama made in Bangladesh. However,  Bangladesh has (smartly) been going with more festival films lately, making me think that “Ant Story”, a Walter Mitty-esque tale about a daydreaming young man with an avid fantasy life has the edge. Director Farooki was selected to represent Bangladesh in 2010 and 2013. Will that help (they clearly like him)? Or hurt him (jealousy)? More commercial options include alien encounter film “Porobashinee”, Bollywood-style romance “Purno Doirgho Prem Kahini” (which rocked the local box-office in late 2013), and commercial female assassin revenge thriller “Agnee”.  I predict “Ant Story”.

10. BELARUS- "Babu"- Belarus has a small domestic film industry but they haven’t sent a film to the Oscars since sending two Jewish-themed films in 1994 and 1996. They’re the only European country to be absent for that long. This year’s most likely submission is “Babu”, a crime drama about the kidnapping of the seven-year old daughter of an Azerbaijani oligarch living in Moscow. It’s the first co-production between Belarus and Azerbaijan since the fall of the USSR, but I doubt they’ll enter. Belarus' highest-profile recent film- independent HIV youth drama “Horizon Sky”- remains banned at home.

 

11. BELGIUM- "Two Days, One Night" Belgium's race is always complicated by the fact that the French- and Dutch-speaking regions each think they are a different country. They have separate film academies and separate national film awards. No matter how much they dislike the idea however, they are from the same country and they can only send one film. From the Dutch side (which got an Oscar nomination last year), the front-runner is Oscar nominee Stijn Coninx’s ("Daens") immigrant drama “Marina”, about a family of Italians struggling in Belgium in the post-war era. However, it would be foolish to bet against the front-runner from the French side, namely “Two Days, One Night” (Cannes 2014 + Best Picture at Sydney 2014), starring French Oscar nominee Marion Cotillard as a desperate woman facing the prospect of being laid off at work, but who can avoid her fate if she convinces her fellow employees to forsake their annual bonus to keep her on. Directed by the sleep-inducing Dardenne Brothers (selected by Belgium three times, but snubbed for their last two films, “The Kid With a Bike” and “Lorna’s Silence”), this is actually supposed to be one of their more accessible efforts. The power of Cannes and Cotillard should make this easy for “Two Days”. Belgium occasionally chooses a three-film shortlist before announcing their pick. If so, that third slot will probably go to either French-language “The Taste of Blueberries”, about an octogenarian couple attempting to visit their son’s grave, or Dutch-language “The Verdict”, a thriller about a man taunted by the sex offender long suspected of murdering his brother who disappeared decades before. “Two Days” should win this contest rather easily. Other dark horses that may muster some support at home:  from the Dutch side, bizarre horror-dramedy “The Miracle of Life, about a woman who gives birth to a stillborn baby but a live and sentient placenta and “The Treatment”, a popular thriller, or, from the French side, “Melody”, about a child surrogate left alone and pregnant when her sponsor is tragically killed. I haven't forgotten the violent serial killer couple in “Alleluia” (Cannes) or LGBT drama “All Yours” (Karlovy Vary) but they won't be picked, nor will the Belgian film I most want to see this year: comedy “Moroccan Gigolos”, whose trailer looks hilarious.

12. BHUTAN- "Kushuthara: Pattern of Love"- Bhutan, a tiny Buddhist kingdom in the Himalayas, entered the Oscar race once in 1999 with Khyentse Norbu's charming "The Cup". Norbu, a high-ranking Buddhist monk, has a new film this year- “Vara: A Blessing”, which opened the Busan Film Festival (Asia's largest) in 2013. But the film is entirely in English so it won’t figure in here. The two big winners at the National Film Awards this year were “My Teacher, My World”, a drama about a stuck-up woman who returns to her village after a disastrous marriage to become the village teacher, and “Sakteng Metog”, a Bollywood-style romance about a young woman in a remote village choosing among her many suitors. However, these are both films purely for local consumption. If they are coaxed back to the race, it will probably be with “Kushuthara: Pattern of Love”, an ambitious tale of unrequited love, several years in the making by Bhutan’s first female director. It has a British lead though….Too much English? Dark horse: AUSTRALIA’s “Arrows of the Thunder Dragon”, a film wholly made in Bhutan by an Australian director.

13. BOLIVIA- "Yvy Maraey" Bolivia has gotten films on the Oscar longlist five times and three of these were directed by Juan Carlos Valdivia. His latest film “Yvy Maraey: Tierra sin Mal” was postponed from a September 2013 to October 2013 release, meaning that though I predicted it to represent Bolivia last year, it is actually eligible this year. “Yvy Maraey” is a visually rich road movie about a man delving deep into the culture of Bolivia’s indigenous people. This fits in well with the Bolivian government’s objective of promoting indigenous languages and cultures. It faces stiff competition from a pair of important historical dramas “The Forgotten”, a drama starring Oscar nominee Damien Alcazar about the 1970s military dictatorship, and “Boqueron”, about the Chaco War.  My prediction: “Yvy Maraey” brings Bolivia back to the race for the first time in five years.

 

14. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "With Mom" Bosnia's two high-profile films are both internationalist efforts. “For Those Who Can Tell No Tales” would be a contender if it weren’t mostly in English. “Bridges of Sarajevo”, a multi-lingual documentary omnibus film by thirteen international directors got a special berth in Cannes and would appear to technically qualify by the rules since it has one Bosnian director (Aida Begic), some Bosnian crew and it’s clearly “about” Bosnia more than any other country. But it’s not really a “Bosnian film”. The same goes for “Love Island” a breezy comedy with an international cast set in Croatia and funded mostly by Croatia but with a Bosnian director. The two more authentic local contenders are “With Mom”, a contemporary family drama about the relationship between a young artist, her domineering mother dying of cancer and the rest of the family; and “Krajina: Life and Death”,  about two close friends who meet up years after the war in Krajina. Of course, the Bosnians also may choose some new film from the Sarajevo  Film Festival that we haven’t heard about yet. My prediction is: “With Mom” edges out “Bridges of Sarajevo”, which has gotten mixed reviews.

15. BRAZIL- "Casa Grande" Buzz from Brazil has focused on three films, all of which played in different sections at Berlinale 2014. The hottest title is “The Way He Looks”, a lovable gay-themed adolescent drama about a blind boy who falls for his classmate. Internet buzz has this as the sentimental favorite to represent the Brasilieros but while everyone likes the film, critics tend to call it “a sweet movie” rather than a groundbreaking film. “Casa Grande” (Berlin Film Market), about a wealthy family in dire financial straits, focuses on the more cerebral topics of class struggle and race relations. It all sounds like Bolivia’s “Zona Sur” from a few years back, except from the point of view of the son instead of the parents. Karim Ainouz’s “Future Beach” is the possible arthouse pick, though it’s said to be more “pretty to look at" than anything else and Ainouz has never been selected to rep Brazil even for his more acclaimed films. Coming in under the radar is a fourth film- revenge thriller “Wolf at the Door”- focusing on the disappearance of a missing child. It's a dark horse with less buzz, but equally good (better?) reviews. We can certainly expect to see films like “Entre Nos”, “The Pilgrim”, “Tattoo” and “Man of the Crowd” (based on an Edgar Allen Poe story) on Brazil’s shortlist (which tends to be ridiculously long), but I think the finalist will certainly be one of the above four films. I think “Casa Grande” fits in better with what the Brazilian Academy usually goes for so it’s my pick, followed by sentimental favorite “The Way He Looks” and possible surprise “Wolf at the Door” (which would have the best chance with the Academy incidentally).  

16. BULGARIA- "The Judgement" Bulgaria has two good options this year, but I think they’ll be rewarding Stephan Komandarev for getting Bulgaria’s first and only shortlist spot in 2010. Komandarev has a new movie this year- “The Judgement”- which is also the only Bulgarian movie selected to get a gala screening at the Sofia International Film Festival, where it also won Best Bulgarian Film. It also has a baity plot- an impoverished man attempts to repent for a sin committed 25 years prior.  Its chief competition is “Viktoria”, an quirky dramedy about three generations of women in Communist Bulgaria, including a young wife desperate to emigrate to America. Her plans are thwarted when Baby Viktoria is randomly declared to be “Socialist Baby of the Decade”, meaning a lifetime of being feted (and followed) by the State. Variety says it is a brilliant film for the first hour-and-a-half. Unfortunately, the film is 2 ½ hours long! I think these two options are pretty strong contenders. Unlikely but possible: amnesiac comedy “Living Legends”, WWII drama “Bulgarian Rhapsody” and “Rat Poison”, a juvenile delinquent drama set during the fall of communism. Dark horse: last year’s acclaimed illegal adoption drama “Alienation” may have premiered in Bulgarian cinemas this year, I’m not sure.

17. BURKINA FASO- "Soleils" Burkina Faso likes to think of itself as the cinematic capital of Africa because they host the bi-annual FESPACO Film Festival and because they have long been the traditional heart of African arthouse cinema (though this is not necessarily true today). They entered the Oscar race just once way back in 1989 which is such a shame (the haunting “A Night of Truth”, for example, would have made a great choice)....If they return this year, it’s likely to be “Soleils”, a road movie about an old man asked to take an amnesiac young woman on a journey through Africa and Europe. With French and Burkinabe co-directors, it’s supposed to be a beautiful film but don’t count on them filling out the paperwork.

 

18. CAMBODIA- "The Last Reel" Cambodia’s emotional documentary “The Missing Picture” was the surprise nominee at last year’s Oscars (I’m still shocked) and only the second film from Southeast Asia to be nominated for the award (Vietnam’s “Scent of Green Papaya” got a nomination in a much weaker year, way back in 1994). This year, I predict the Cambodians send “The Last Reel”, a drama about a teenaged girl who discovers her mother was a famous film actress before the Khmer Rouge genocide. It sounds interesting and is said to be one of the first films from Cambodia to have Western-style production values. The backstory is interesting as well. Actress Dy Saveth who plays the Mom is also a former Cambodian movie star who escaped the genocide by fleeing to France as a refugee. Interestingly enough, FRANCE also has a possible Cambodian film, namely Regis Wargnier’s “The Gate”, the true story of a French anthropologist  who escaped the genocide. Wargnier won the Foreign Oscar for the Southeast Asian-themed “Indochine” and was nominated for the Russian-themed “East-West”, but I think Cambodia will stick with a locally directed film. If “Reel” is not eligible, another possibility is human trafficking drama “3:50” but I hear it's been having trouble with Cambodian censors and seems to have too much English.

 

19. CAMEROON- "W.A.K.A." Cameroon was the first country to send a movie made by a Black African director to the Oscars. That was in 1980. They’ve never sent another film and they won’t do so this year either. For the sake of completion, this year’s highest-profile film is “W.A.K.A.”, a drama about a prostitute ready to make any sacrifice necessary to take care of her young son.

 

 

 

20. CANADA- "Mommy" 25-year old wunderkind Xavier Dolan will be his own worst enemy this year as he has two great films that were released in Canadian cinemas in calendar year 2014. Psychological thriller “Tom at the Farm”, featuring Dolan as a grieving man attending the funeral of his closeted boyfriend, won the FIPRESCI award at Venice 2013 but premiered in Quebec in March 2014. Then “Mommy”, about a trashy Quebecois widow trying to control her violent teenaged son, premiered in competition at Cannes 2014, winning the Jury Prize. It will premiere in Quebec cinemas in September 2014, making both Dolan films eligible to represent the Canucks. One would expect strong competition from Denys Arcand ("Barbarian Invasions"), the acclaimed 70-year old director who has represented Canada four times and never failed to make at least the 9-film shortlist. However, his latest (talky drama “An Eye for Beauty”) has come and gone with little fanfare and little love from critics. Dolan’s two films really do seem to be the two best-reviewed Quebecois films of the year. Some other (unlikely) options: “The Auction”, a re-telling of King Lear in which a proud landowner is forced to sell his land and property to help a daughter in dire financial straits; “Tu dors Nicole”, a B&W indie that played at Cannes Director's Fortnight; “La petite reine”, a drama about a female athlete who resorts to doping, and “Le vrai du faux”, a dramedy treading a careful line between laughs and tears, about PTSD survivors back from war. Canada sometimes strays away from French-language fare (2001 and 2006). Punjabi-language historical drama “Punjab 1984” about the massacres in India’s Punjab State would seem to have a better chance over pre-colonial Inuktikut-language drama “Maina” and Hindi-language missing child drama “Siddharth”, though those are all far-fetched. It’s possible we may see something new in Toronto, but I think “Mommy” will get Dolan to Hollywood for the first time since his brilliant debut "I Killed My Mother" (also starring Anne Dorval as the two title Moms).

 

21. CHAD- "Mariam" Congratulations to the nation of Chad! Last year, they became the second country in sub-Saharan Africa (after heavyweight South Africa) to send a film to the Foreign Oscar race more than once. Director Mahamat-Saleh Haroun also became the first Black African director to have a film submitted twice (All but one of South Africa’s submissions have been made by White directors). Haroun is the country’s only internationally celebrated filmmaker, but they do have an option this year in “Mariam”, a low-budget fiction film dealing with societal issues involving the rape and abuse of underage girls in Chadian culture.

22. CHILE- "The Dance of Reality" (La danza de la realidad) Chile deserved a Best  Foreign Film nomination for "Gloria" and easily a Best Actress win for the flawless Paulina Garcia, but neither was to be. This year, Chilean film output is up, although they don’t have too many Oscar contenders. I think the Chilean winner will be surreal fantasy “The Dance of Reality (La danza de la realidad) by 85-year old Alejandro Jodorowsky (“El Topo”). Anyone who has seen “El Topo” will know that the film, set at a circus in 1929, will be surreal and weird, but reviews have been strong, calling the film surprisingly funny and touching. The Chilean Academy has shown they respect age and reputation (witness “Dawson Isla 10” beating “The Maid” a few years back), which makes me think it will beat the other four main contenders: “Illiterate” (starring “Gloria”’s Paulina Garcia), about a woman learning to read in order to solve the mystery of her father’s long-ago disappearance, “Neruda”, the biopic of Chile’s famous dissident poet Pablo Neruda, “Patagonia of Dreams”, about a French immigrant family settling in indigenous lands in the 1870s, and “The Quispe Sisters” (Winner Best Cinematography, Venice 2013), the tragic story of three adult shepherdesses living a hardscrabble existence in rural Chile in the 1970s.  Less likely: thriller “The Vineyard”, London-set comedy-drama “I Am From Chile” (co-starring Paulina Garcia as a landlady) and “Devil’s Liquor” (La chupilca del Diablo), about an elderly man, his grandson and a failing factory. Unknown quality: two-time Oscar nominee Miguel Littin has a new historical docudrama “Allende, tu nombre me sabe a hierba”, scheduled to open in September. He is filming in socialist Venezuela, complaining that he had trouble making the film in Chile. Littin was selected for a last-minute film a few years ago, and this could potentially happen again. Eligible next year:  well-reviewed revenge thriller “To Kill a Man” is set to appear in October. Prediction: “Dance” reps Chile, with “Illiterate”, “Patagonia”, “Allende” and “Neruda” rounding out the Top Five.

23. CHINA- TBD

24. COLOMBIA- "Todos se van" Colombia tends to go very “arthouse” when choosing their films, choosing slow-paced, meandering dramas four of the past five years (the rest of the time, they choose drug-addled action films), even over more Oscary types of films (like last year’s “Roa”). One major problem that Colombia has this year is that several of their most high-profile films were made by American directors working in Colombia, including mining documentary “Marmato” (winner three awards including Best Colombian film at Cartagena) and rural drug trafficking drama “Manos sucias” (Tribeca). Oscar has loosened up (a bit) since disqualifying Colombia’s “Maria, Full of Grace” ten years ago but the Colombians are likely to be prickly on the subject. Two other wholly Colombian films from Cartagena are contenders, namely “Dust on the Tongue” (Tierra en la lengua) and “Mateo”. “Dust”, winner of Best Picture, seems to have a better chance for its story of a family plotting to help kill their domineering grandfather/patriarch. “Mateo” (winner of the Jury Prize and Best Colombian Director), is a smaller-scale story of a teen dominated by his crime boss uncle. Also from the "arthouse" school of filmmaking comes last year’s “Chasing Fireflies” (Cazando luciernaga), a beautifully shot but very slow rural drama about an old man reconnecting with the teenaged daughter he never knew, and “Chronicles of the End of the World” (Cronica del fin del mundo), a talky apolocalyptic drama about a man who decides to tell off everyone he knows before the apocalypse. If they want something a bit more lively, they could choose “Dangerous Loves” (Amores peligrosos), a thriller by a previously submitted director. And if they premiere in time, they could also consider the upcoming “La Sargento Machaco”, a historical drama about partisan conflict in 1948, “Gente de Bien" (Cannes Critics Week), a family drama set in the barrios, or “Everyone Leaves” (Todos se van), a drama about a little girl in 1980s Cuba in the midst of a fierce custody battle. It’s based on a popular novel and the first film in a decade by one of Colombia’s finest directors (Sergio Cabrera). This is really one of the toughest races to predict this year….So many options and no front-runner. I’m predicting “Everyone Leaves”, which is scheduled to premiere right before the deadline, followed by “Dust on the Tongue” and “Chasing Fireflies” with dark horses “La Sargento Machaco” and “Mateo” rounding out the Top Five. I don't think "Gente de Bien" will make it to cinemas in time. But I’m really confused by this one.

25. CONGO-KINSHASA has not cashed in on the international success of Djo Tunda’s gritty arthouse success “Viva Riva” (which they foolishly did not send to the Oscars). The Congolese sent a film to Hollywood once in 1997 (Zeka Laplaine’s “Macadam Tribu”) but nothing since. Both Djo Tunda and Laplaine have interesting new films in development (“Chandra” and “The Reptiles”) but I don’t think either one will be released in time (in fact, it's likely they never will be released at all in chaotic Kinshasa).Congo has a couple of feature documentaries- the highest profile is “Atalaku” about comedians seeking to get involved in the presidential elections- but they’ll definitely sit out this year. 



26. COSTA RICA- "Red Princesses" (Princesas Rojas) Costa Rica has had a fairly good film year, with no less than three movies released within a one-month period last October.  I hate to predict the same movie two years in a row but “Red Princesses” (Berlin 2013) didn’t get a domestic release until then. It’s almost certain to be selected for its story of a family of Communists raising two young girls, who return to Costa Rica secretly under an assumed name, after years in political exile. Tico films never make festivals like Berlin so it'd be hard to deny them the chance. Unlikely but possible: nationalistic World Cup drama “Italia 90”, or cockfighting dramedy “All About the Feathers”, which represented the country in Vancouver and Miami.




27. COTE D’IVOIRE- "Run" The Cote d’Ivoire (a.k.a. the Ivory Coast) sent a movie to the Oscars way back in 1976….eventually winning the Oscar for the French film “Black and White in Color”. They never entered the race again, but they have their best chance in decades with Cannes thriller “Run”, a French co-production about a young man who goes into hiding after assassinating the Prime Minister. The film was the first beneficiary of the country’s new Film Fund and its prestigious spot in Cannes Un Certain Regard line-up can only help. For more on attempts to jump-start the Ivorian film industry, see here. Trivia: Since Pakistan rejoined the race last year, the Cote d’Ivoire now holds the record for the longest absence of any country- 37 years and counting.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Not many possibilities from these countries. The most likely candidate would be BURMA (aka MYANMAR) for “Ice Poison” (Berlin Panorama 2014), a drama about an impoverished young couple who get mixed up in the drug trade on the Chinese border. Reviews have been good, but there’s no guarantee it will premiere in Burma. Burma-born director Midi Z. works mostly in Taiwan and the negative subject matter may scare off the (liberalizing) Burmese authorities. Another option is ANGOLA’s impressive-looking historical drama “Njinga Rainha de Angola”, about a warrior princess facing off against the encroaching Portuguese colonizers. However, I’m not even clear whether this is an actual feature film or a miniseries. Tiny BRUNEI has martial arts drama “Yasmine”, but surely won’t fill out the paperwork.