FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS- Eastern Europe (20 Films)

Wow! 20 movies from Eastern Europe! Eight of these are from the former USSR (two more will be reviewed in the Asian section) and five of are from the former Yugoslavia. So the break-ups of those two countries have really increased the number of movies that end up in Hollywood. Even though most of these movies are long-shots, it's nice to see so many countries interested in competing at this level.

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:
20. ESTONIA- "Mushrooming"
19. ARMENIA- "If Only Everyone"
18. LATVIA- "Gulf Stream Under the Iceberg"
17. LITHUANIA- "Ramin"
16. UKRAINE- "Firecrosser"

I don't mean to pick on the countries of the former USSR, but I can't see any of these obscure titles advancing, or even coming close.

LITHUANIA has chosen (for the second time) a documentary short. Oscar rules state that a film must be more than 40 minutes long. Clocking in at a spare 58 minutes, "Ramin" tells the story of 75-year old Ramin Lomsadze, a former Soviet champion wrestler who searches for his long-lost love in rural Georgia. It's all said to be very uplifting but this low-key documentary won't be able to keep its head above water in a field of 71 films, especially considering its spare length and a natural prejudice of some voters that documentaries don't really belong in this category.

Telling three separate stories based on Lilith, the mythical first wife of Adam, LATVIA's "Gulf Stream Under the Iceberg" is a Russian-language costume drama set in the 17th, 19th and 20th centuries. Each version has a different incarnation of Lilith as seductress in the Latvia of a different century. It sounds fascinating and it looks gorgeous. Its problem is that the narrative is said to make very little sense. Although IMDB ratings have absolutely nothing to do with Oscar predictions, it's interesting to note that "Iceberg" has the lowest rating of all 71 films (5.5)

The final Baltic republic is the least likely of all- I saw ESTONIA's black comedy "Mushrooming" in November, whose story concerns a corrupt politician and his wife going hunting for mushrooms with an obnoxious local rock star. The film is advertised as a dark black comedy filled with murder and mayhem, but without giving much away, this is quite misleading. Not much happens, and by the end you feel like you've spent 90 minutes watching a bickering married couple get lost in the woods (in fact, you have). And somewhat surprisingly, the end message almost seems like it's justifying corruption.

I've also seen UKRAINE's "Firecrosser" which is an interesting film based on the life of Ivan Datsenko, a Ukrainian Soviet war hero who went from national hero to Soviet gulag prisoner to Canadian Indian chief (yes, really....) It's an interesting film about a man whose fascinating life is unknown in the West but this first Ukrainian blockbuster is a bit uneven. Most damaging for its Oscar chances, the third act- set in Canada and with the Ukrainian cast speaking or dubbed mostly in English- is a bit painful to watch. I saw it on http://cinecliq.com/ in case you want to check it out. It's worth a watch, if only to see a film from this beautiful (yet cinematically unknown) country.

Lastly, we have possibly the most obscure film in the Foreign Film race- ARMENIA's patriotic "If Only Everyone"- a government effort which concerns a mixed Armenian-Russian woman who seeks to locate the grave of her father who died in Armenia's war with Azerbaijan in the 1990s. She discovers that the grave lies across the border in enemy Azerbaijan and enlists the help of an Armenian army commander to secretly cross the border and lay flowers at the grave. It won Best Armenian Feature at the Golden Apricot Film Festival but the film has zero buzz and the politics are probably going to be too obscure for the Academy. The Azerbaijanis have protested that the Armenians plagiarized a story by an Azerbaijani writer. I can't see it making it very far.

NOT MUCH MORE LIKELY:

15. SLOVAKIA- "Made in Ash"

14. BULGARIA- "Sneakers"

13. SLOVENIA- "A Trip"
12. RUSSIA- "White Tiger"
11. GEORGIA- "Keep Smiling"


These five films (including two of the three remaining Soviet republics in Europe) are pretty much on the same level as those I ranked 16 thru 20. None of them have the buzz or the critical acclaim necessary to advance to the next round.

Four of the films are about the lives of disillusioned 20-somethings in the post-Communist era. BULGARIA's "Sneakers" was a box-office hit in Bulgaria in 2011, but this story of six aimless, borderline-violent slackers (5 guys, 1 girl) escaping their problems on a trip to the seaside was described by the Hollywood Reporter as "the most irritating bunch of whining screen narcissists", despite a somewhat positive review. This angst-ridden youth drama set to a soundtrack of Bulgarian rock music is unlikely to appeal to the older-skewing Oscar committee.

SLOVENIA has also sent a road movie, this time a drama centering on three old high-school friends (straight guy, gay guy, straight girl) reuniting for a road trip through the Slovenian countryside (I did this in May! It's a great idea!). One of the guys is about to be deployed to Afghanistan, and the three have clearly grown apart since their carefree days at school. It's a low-budget film with lots of talking and though it's gotten good reviews, it's too low-key to advance here.

Also made on a low budget, SLOVAKIA's "Made in Ash" is a road movie of a completely different nature...It's a gritty drama about a young Roma woman in Slovakia seeking work and a better life across the border in Germany. As inevitably happens to young women in these sorts of movies, she ends up lured and trafficked into stripping and prostitution. Noticed have been positive but not enthusiastic, and the low budget won't help.

In a somewhat lighter vein is GEORGIA's dark comedy "Keep Smiling", skewing reality TV and beauty pageants. In the film, ten women- most in dire financial straits- compete in a televised beauty pageant (Georgia Mother 2010) to win an apartment and a desperately needed cash prize. The Hollywood Reporter describes it as "Honey Boo Boo" made by the people behind "Desperate Housewives". "Keep Smiling" looks like fun but I've heard it's a flawed film. It'll need a huge amount of support to get that coveted "out-of-nowhere" slot on the shortlist (like comedy "Everybody Famous" in 2001). That's doubtful.

Lastly, we have RUSSIA's strange fantasy "White Tiger". During World War II, an injured Russian soldier is nearly killed in battle. He miraculously heals from his wounds within days but suffers from amnesia and claims an ability to communicate with machines, particularly the tanks on the battlefield. Just like the story of Moby Dick, the soldier becomes obsessed with defeating one particular German tank. Filmed in the old-school Soviet-style, the film is said to be "very Russian", meaning abstract and philosophical. The one other film I've seen by director Karen Shakhnazarov leads me to believe his films are an acquired taste. Despite some positive notices, the film has won no awards. My friend that saw it fell asleep. Maybe next year for Russia.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK:
10. ALBANIA- "Pharmakon"
9. BOSNIA- "Children of Sarajevo"
8. CROATIA- "Cannibal Vegetarian"
7. AZERBAIJAN- "Buta"
6. HUNGARY- "Just the Wind"

In a weak Eastern European field, these five films are likely to finish in the Top Half, but probably won't threaten for the shortlist.

ALBANIA's "Pharmakon" was the only Albanian film eligible, which made choosing the national submission rather easy. I can't find a single review online, but this film about a love triangle between a cruel, domineering father, his son who has recently returned from abroad, and a nurse working in the father's clinic looks very interesting. Despite its small film industry, Albania has sent good films in the past (particularly "Alive", but also "East West East" and "Slogans") which gives me confidence that it's a decent movie, although likely not an Oscar contender.

AZERBAIJAN has returned to the competition with "Buta", a culturally rich film (I saw the trailer...there also appear to be no reviews online) about a little boy living in a remote village with his grandma, and his friendship with an old man. Turns out this old man used to court his grandmother in their youth, decades before. "Buta" is both the little boy's name and a style of carpet made in the village. Oscar loves stories about old people and children ("Kolya", "Central Station", "The Thief") or just children ("Children of Heaven", "Vitus", "The Day My Parents Went On Vacation") but I've heard this is more of a children's film than one for adults, and it has zero buzz...Azerbaijan is traditionally not a contender in this category.

Moving on to BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, we have "Children of Sarajevo", the story of a brother and sister fifteen years after they were orphaned in the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. The siblings are now 21 and 14, and the older sister, now sporting an Islamic headscarf, is struggling to support the family and keep her younger brother from juvenile deliquency in 2012 Sarajevo. The film is said to be a good one and it won an award in the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes, but I think it's too low-key and quiet to advance.

CROATIA's "Cannibal Vegetarian" is said to be one of the most disturbing films in this year's competition. "Vegetarian" is about an unscrupulous gynecologist/surgeon, who performs abortions when the local mafia-owned prostitutes get pregnant. After botching an operation, he is ordered to perform an abortion on a woman who's already eight months along. A scene of animal cruelty is said to be particularly disturbing. The movie is said to be disturbing and depressing, but also fast-paced...one of those Eastern European films that makes you question whether life has any meaning. The larger committee will hate it, and I don't believe the film has what it takes to get "saved".

HUNGARY won the Silver Bear in Berlin for "Just the Wind", the story of a Roma family eking out a living against the backdrop of a series of racial murders targeting the Roma community. Despite its award in Berlin and generally positive reviews, "Just the Wind" is just the sort of slow, minimalist film with little dialogue that the Academy rarely chooses. Not everyone likes it, so it's probably out of luck here.

DARK HORSES:
5. MACEDONIA- "The Third Half"
4. SERBIA- "When Day Breaks"
3. POLAND- "80 Million"

Important events in the 20th century histories of Poland and the former Yugoslavia form the plotlines of these three dramas.

If Oscars were given based on plots, then SERBIA's "When Day Breaks" would probably win this year, since it combines virtually all of Oscar's favorite themes (World War II!! Musical Composers!! Jews!!) in one film. In this Goran Paskaljevic film, a 70-year old Orthodox Serbian professor discovers that his real parents were Jewish deportees who gave him away to neighbors in order to save him from the Nazis during WWII. He finds that his father was a composer in pre-WWII Yugoslavia and sets out to have his last unfinished symphony performed. It's total Oscar bait, but reviews have been decidedly mixed in the West leading me to believe that it's a long shot for the shortlist. I'll see it in January when it premieres here in Washington, DC and make up my own mind.

POLAND's "80 Million" focuses not on World War II but on the Solidarity movement against Communism in the 1980s. It's an exciting, commercial thriller that sounds like a Hollywood heist film. In the film, a series of Solidarity (an anti-Communist labor group that helped overthrown Communist rule in Poland) activists race against the clock to save the group's assets from being seized by the Polish Communist government in 1981. They accomplish this by staging a daring bank robbery of some sort. This is the sort of light and entertaining but still serious movie that the Academy sometimes goes for. Perhaps it's a bit too commercial? We'll see....

A bigger long-shot is MACEDONIA's controversial "The Third Half", about a football (soccer) team in 1940s Macedonia, coached by a German Jew in what was then a region of Yugoslavia occupied by Nazi-allied Bulgaria. Bulgaria has strongly protested that the film incorrectly shows Bulgarians deporting Jews. The Macedonians say this indeed happened and that thousands of Jews were deported to concentration camps in this way. The Oscar committee will likely know little or nothing about the controversy so that won't affect the film's chances in any way. The film hasn't made much of a blip outside of the Balkans. In its favor is its WWII theme and its exciting story. It also has the highest IMDB rating of all 71 films worldwide (although I'd say the voting looks SUSPICIOUSLY high....may be some vote stuffing involved). All in all, the politics and subject matter are probably a bit too obscure for the Oscar committee and I've heard that the mishmash of languages (Macedonian, Bulgarian, German, Serbian) makes it difficult for Westerners to figure out who's who....But who knows?

FRONT-RUNNERS:

2. ROMANIA- "Beyond the Hills"
1. CZECH REPUBLIC- "In the Shadow"

Even though there are 20 films in the running, I'm not really sure if either of these two films will end up making the shortlist!

Most people are certainly saying that ROMANIA's "Beyond the Hills"- winner of Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Cannes 2012- is one of the favorites. However, this two-and-a-half hour movie about two women, a convent, lesbianism (maybe?) and an exorcism (maybe?) is definitely too weird to make it out of the larger committee. In the film, a Romanian woman living in Germany journeys to a remote convent in rural Romania to meet the best friend from her youth. The woman demands that her friend return with her to the West. Her friend insists she will stay in the convent. From there, things go a bit haywire. Some say that the Oscars wouldn't ignore Cristian Mungiu ("4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days") a second time, but "4 Months" was a much more popular film that "Hills". Reviews have been positive but not as strong as "4 Months", and the film earned only a single nomination (and no wins) at the European Film Awards (for Screenplay; it lost to a Danish film). It's entirely possible that the elite committee will "save" Mungiu in order to avoid a second snub. Indeed, that is "Hills" only chance....I think in the end, they're going to miss out.

That brings us to the CZECH REPUBLIC. The Czechs used to be a major power in this category, although they've only been nominated once in the past decade (for "Zelary", which I never got round to seeing). This year's nominee- "In the Shadow"- hasn't gotten much attention on the film festival circuit but it has gotten great reviews from those who have seen it, and it features a number of the themes that this category likes best. Shot in gorgeous film noir, this complicated mystery-thriller focuses on a routine burglary in 1953 Prague that proves to be part of a major conspiracy, leading to "show trials" in which many Czechoslovakians ending up being executed. Featuring strong acting performances and themes revolving around anti-Semitism, Communism, morality and all the big themes that Hollywood likes. "Shadow" has got a definite shot.

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 21

Number of countries participating this year: 20

Number of countries opting out: Only grouchy BELARUS is sitting out this year and that’s no surprise considering they haven’t sent a movie since President Lukashenko came to power in 1996. Tiny MONTENEGRO, now the smallest nation in Eastern Europe, considered sending a film for the first time (http://www.pobjeda.me/2012/09/01/crna-gora-i-dalje-bez-izbora-kandidata-za-oskara/) but decided against it since the only film that met the screening requirements (“Local Vampire”) was a lowbrow comedy with little critical appeal. KOSOVO and MOLDOVA are the only other Eastern European countries which have never entered the race.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Probably only four, but I wouldn’t be surprised if all of them missed it. It should be noted that in the past four years, these countries have only managed two shortlist spots (for which only “In Darkness” was nominated)

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 15 primary languages. Albanian, Armenian, Azeri, Bulgarian, Czech, Estonian, Georgian (Georgia, Lithuania), Hungarian, Macedonian, Polish, Romanian, Russian (Armenia, Latvia, Russia, Ukraine), Serbo-Croatian (Bosnia, Croatia, Serbia), Slovak and Slovene. The Armenian nominee appears to be equal-parts bilingual. You’ll also hear quite a bit of German in entries from Czech Republic, Macedonia and Slovakia.

The films from Macedonia and Ukraine are also multi-lingual this year….. Perhaps most surprising is that Lithuania sent a film in Georgian, which is not spoken anywhere near the country.

Highest profile film: Romania’s “Beyond the Hills” easily has the most buzz since it’s the first feature directed by Cristian Mungiu since “4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days”, Mungiu’s snub in 2008 is rumored to have prompted the creation of an “elite committee” to assist in selecting the the Oscar shortlist. “Beyond the Hills” won Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Cannes 2012. As usual, there are quite a few obscure films on the list. I can’t find a single online review for three of them.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Probably the Czech Republic’s under-the-radar thriller.  

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Estonia’s meandering black comedy “Mushrooming”.

Number of Comedies: Two, from Estonia and Georgia.

Number of Animated Films or Horror Films: None.

Number of Documentaries: One, a documentary short from Lithuania.

Oscar History: Nobody’s been nominated before, but seven of the twenty directors have been in the race before.

Goran Paskaljevic has had one of his films submitted for an Oscar for the fourth time after “Special Treatment” (1980), “Time of Miracles” (1990), “The Powder Keg” (a.k.a. “Cabaret Balkan; 1998) and “A Midwinter Night’s Dream” (2005), alternately representing Serbia and unified Yugoslavia.

Branko Schmidt of Croatia (“Queen of the Night”, “Vukovar: The Way Home”) and Karen Shakhnazarov of Russia (“Ward No. 6”, “Zero City”) are each in the race for the third time.

Aida Begic (Bosnia, “Snow”), Benedek Fliegauf (Hungary, “Forest”), Darko Mitrevski (Macedonia, “Goodbye 20^th Century) and Cristian Mungiu (Romania, “4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days”) are in the race for a second time.

Four countries have won the Oscar for their countries (Bosnia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia), three others have been nominated (Georgia, Macedonia and Poland) and two others (Bulgaria and Serbia) have been short-listed. Croatia, Serbia and Slovakia have never been nominated since becoming independent, but their films have been nominated as part of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. The three Baltic republics, as well as Albania, Slovenia and, surprisingly, Romania have had no luck yet with Oscar.

Number of Female Directors: Four ladies are in the running- Aida Begic (Bosnia), Nataliya Belyauskene (Armenia), Rusudan Chkonia (Georgia) and Iveta Grofova (Slovakia). Belyauskene and Grofova are the first women to represent their countries.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Ukraine’s Russian-born Mykhailo Ilienko is 65 while Slovenia’s Nejc Gazvoda is only 28.

Familiar Faces: Though some actors are surely famous in their home countries, there are no internationally well-known faces in this crop of films. Oscar watchers may recognize the lead in Croatia’s “Cannibal Vegetarian” (Rene Bitorajac) as one of the two stars of Bosnia’s Oscar-winning “No Man’s Land” (he played the Serb soldier).

His “Cannibal Vegetarian” co-star, Bosnian actor Emir Hadžihafizbegović, is appearing in his eleventh Oscar submission (5 Bosnian ones, 4 Croatian ones, 1 Serbian one + 1 Yugoslavian one)...Is that some kind of record?

Tough Choices: In my view, the biggest snubs were for “Parada”, the gay-themed comedy from Serbia that proved to be a major hit all over the former Yugoslavia, and “The Exam”, a Cold War thriller from Hungary. Both were beaten by more artistic works.

It was a bad year for films that won their 2012 National Film Awards…”Ave” (Bulgaria), “Flower Buds” (Czech Republic), “Citadel of Sleeping Butterflies” (Lithuania), “Rose” (Poland), “Once Upon A Time There Lived A Simple Woman” (Russia) and “Archeo” (Slovenia) all won Best Picture but were ignored by their Oscar committees. Poland’s acclaimed “Rose” was a particularly shocking snub.

Also eliminated in the preliminaries: “Tadas Blinda” (Lithuania), “The Woman Who Brushed Off Her Tears” starring Victoria Abril (Macedonia), “The Best Intentions” (Romania), Thr Horde (Russia) and “The Confidant” (Slovakia)

Controversies and Changes: Some minor controversies….

AZERBAIJAN accused ARMENIA of plagiarizing the work of an Azerbaijani writer and “twisting” the plot so that the Armenian characters are seen as the good guys. The accusations are likely untrue as the two countries routinely fight over everything, as could be seen most recently in the Armenia boycott of Azerbaijan’s successful hosting of Eurovision 2012.

LITHUANIA’s vote had to be extended to a second round after their Oscar committee couldn’t decide. The reason wasn’t announced, but it was probably due to the fact that many preferred “Tadas Blinda”- a big-budget, box-office period movie- over the barely Lithuanian documentary short made in faraway Georgia.

Perhaps the biggest controversy came from MACEDONIA’s film “The Third Half”.  Though the selection of the well-received film was not controversial in Macedonia, it caused a huge stir in neighboring Bulgaria. Many in Bulgaria object to the portrayal in the film of Bulgarian soldiers helping to deport Jews from current-day Macedonia to concentration camps. Bulgaria, which was allied to Nazi Germany, has always maintained that it was the only Nazi ally which categorically refused to deport its Jewish population. Macedonia maintained that the film was historically accurate and several Bulgarian members of the European Parliament variously called for the film to be banned, or for Macedonia to be condemned.

SERBIA introduced a new selection format this year, requiring filmmakers to submit their films for consideration, along with a  300 euro fee. In previous years, all Serbian releases were eligible. The eventual winner, “When Day Breaks”, arranged a one-theatre release in an obscure town in order to compete, meaning that the film was virtually unknown when was is selected, beating out its main competition, hit gay-pride comedy “Parada”.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: 7- ALBANIA, ARMENIA, BOSNIA, ESTONIA, LATVIA, SLOVENIA and UKRAINE. The release dates were really what screwed me up this year. I was well aware of the strength of the Macedonian, Romanian, Serbian and Slovak candidates (see my predictions!), but thought they would be eligible next year.

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve seen the nominees from Estonia and Ukraine (which you can watch yourself legally like I did at http://cinecliq.com/) but missed out on four others at this year’s EU Film Festival in Washington, DC, which was notable only for absurdly inconvenient times and schedules.

There are so many interesting films on the list this year. If I could only choose one, it would have to be Georgia’s reality TV comedy “Keep Smiling”, though I’d feel terrible missing out on the intriguing stories of “Cannibal Vegetarian”, “Pharmakon” and “Buta”.

Last year's race: I only saw five of last year’s mostly obscure list of 16 films. Eventual nominee (and probable Oscar runner-up) “In Darkness” was the best of the five (A-), with Slovakia’s “Gypsy” also very good (B+). I was less a fan of Croatia’s “72 Days” (C), Hungary’s “Turin Horse” (C-) and Slovenia’s “Silent Sonata” (C+)

Next up: the 17 films from The Americas, Africa, Australia and the Middle East.  

FOREIGN FILM OSCAR PREDICTIONS- WESTERN EUROPE (17 films)

Here are my predictions for the 17 films from Western Europe (including Turkey)

OUT OF THEIR LEAGUE:
17. GREECE- “Unfair World”
16. PORTUGAL- “Blood of My Blood”
15. TURKEY- “Where the Fire Burns”
14. NORWAY- “Kon-Tiki”
13. GREENLAND- “Inuk”

There are actually no embarrassingly bad films this year to make fun of...I just don’t think any of these five mostly well-received films will have the gravitas to advance to the next round.

GREECE has selected a black comedy about an aging police detective going through a series of moral dilemmas involving murder, innocence and romantic love for a young, mysterious neighbor. I’ve seen “Unfair World” and it’s an interesting yet forgettable film that goes on a bit too long, and peters out in the second half. Despite winning the Best Picture award at the Greek Oscars, it’s a 6/10 at best.

PORTUGAL chose box-office hit “Blood of my Blood” over the more favored, arty “Tabu”. It’s a sprawling family soap opera set in the slums of Lisbon and I liked it quite a lot. Unfortunately, the projector broke during its DC screening after one hour and I’m dying to find out what happened! In any case, it is what it is….a big soap opera and I can’t see it advancing any further.

TURKEY’s “Where the Fire Burns” is a drama about so-called “honor killings”, based on the 2003 murder of a pregnant, unmarried woman by her remorseless father. Though it won the Grand Prize in Montreal, I’ve heard from Turks that it didn’t deserve to represent Turkey (who had a fairly strong year), and while the film is said to highlight a fascinating and topical issue, both the Hollywood Reporter and Variety note sadly that it does so very, very slowly.

GREENLAND and NORWAY (along with ICELAND) are both channeling their Viking pasts with films about men making great journeys. In Norway’s big-budget “Kon-Tiki”, it is the journey of acclaimed explorer Thor Heyerdahl and his crew, making their way across the Pacific Ocean in 1947 in a small, traditional raft. The story was already made into a film in 1951 (by Heyerdahl himself) which ironically won an Oscar for Best Documentary. Technically solid, the film- reportedly the most expensive in Norwegian history- is praised as a rollicking adventure with solid tech credits but a bit formulaic and lacking in character development. Huge but underpopulated GREENLAND (population: 57,000) is the smallest country to compete in this category (stealing this honor from neighboring Iceland in 2010) and their film “Inuk” has gotten the most solid reviews among these five. Everyone says it’s a really interesting film about a Greenlandic teenager from a dysfunctional family making a journey from the capital city (pop: 15.000) to a foster family in the far North. It’s a coming-of-age film and a journey into Greenland’s resurgent indigenous culture, but most of the praise comments on the cultural aspects and the beauty of the landscape. The audience will sit back and enjoy it but not rate it highly enough to compete with the big boys. Thanks to Greenland for sending. I can’t wait to see it.

UNLIKELY TO ADVANCE:

12. NETHERLANDS- “Kauwboy”
11. ICELAND- “The Deep”
10. ITALY- "Caesar Must Die"
9. SWEDEN- “The Hypnotist”

All four of these films face an uphill battle to the shortlist due to one or more problems. The NETHERLANDS’ “Kauwboy” is about a 10-year boy who lives with his single father, and his efforts to care for a small bird. It’s gotten very strong reviews for managing to stay on the right side of sentimental but it’s first and foremost a children’s film. The Dutch probably do these better than everyone, but they’re not likely to be honored here. (Has a children’s movie ever been nominated in this category? I don’t think so).

SWEDEN’s “The Hypnotist” has it all on paper...It’s a mainstream thriller by an Oscar-nominated director and starring an Oscar-nominated actress. The film, Lasse Halstrom’s first Swedish film in 25 years, concerns a detective trying to solve the murder of an entire family by hypnotizing the only surviving witness. It sounds like it could be another “Secret in Their Eyes”. The only problem? Well, it’s not supposed to be very good. Reviews by critics have been the weakest of the Western European films (and also the lowest rating on IMDB- a 5.7) and that should be enough to send the Swedes packing. Neighboring ICELAND’s “The Deep” is said to be a better film, but it’s a difficult one to watch. Based on the true story of the sole survivor of a shipwreck in frigid Icelandic waters, much of the movie is spent watching a man battle alone against the elements.

As for ITALY’s “Caesar Must Die”, this 75-minute winner of the Golden Bear in Berlin is just too oddball to make the cut. As you probably know, it’s a filmed version of William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar (in several Italian dialects) made starring real inmates at a maximum-security Italian prison. Not everyone likes the movie and winning Berlinale is not a guarantee of making the shortlist (Turkey’s boring “Honey” didn’t make it two years ago). I think it’s much too weird to advance but I’m placing it above films like “Kauwboy” and “Kon-Tiki” on the off chance that the Elite Committee saves it. But I doubt it.


DARK HORSES-

8. FINLAND- “Purge”
7. GERMANY- “Barbara”
6. BELGIUM- “Our Children”
5. SWITZERLAND- “Sister”
Here we have a quartet of grim dramas about Communism, infanticide and family dysfunction. I don’t think any of them will make the Final Nine, but it’s possible one of them may slip through if either of the two Committees really likes them.

The strongest buzz is coming from “L’Enfant en Haut” (aka “Sister”) from SWITZERLAND. Having seen the movie, I’m a bit surprised by this- I thought it was well-made but was somewhat turned off by the unlikable lead characters- but it’s definitely in with a chance. In the film, a 12-year old boy lives with his pretty but aimless and irresponsible older sister near a ski resort in Switzerland. The sister disappears for days at a time with a random series of men. The boy steals everything from food to skis and wallets to support them.

Also from the French-speaking world is BELGIUM’s “A perdre la raison” (aka “Our Children”), based on a real-life series of brutal murders committed by a young mother (Genevieve Lhermitte) against her five young children (reduced to four in the film). I thought the film was a tad too sympathetic to the obviously troubled young mother, but the director does a good job at presenting a story which (in the director’s words) is a different film for everyone who sees it.

FINLAND has chosen “Purge”, based on a bestselling novel. It’s a female-driven film set in neighboring Estonia (but was filmed in the Finnish language) contrasting the lives of two women thrown together by fate. The young woman has just escaped an instance of human trafficking while the older woman was brutalized during the Communist era by Soviets. The film is said to be violent and difficult to watch, but with brilliant acting performances. Though Oscar likes WWII, this may be a bit much for them to take.

This brings us to GERMANY. In the past ten years, the Germans have racked up two wins, four nominations (that lost) plus one additional shortlist spot. The three German films that did not advance included the two best ones the Germans sent (“Goodbye Lenin!” and “Edge of Heaven”). Statistically, that means that this year’s nominee- the cold, forgettable Cold War drama of “Barbara”- should do great. Many people are hailing the film as one of the favorites (it got a Best Pic nomination at the European Film Awards?!) but I found it to be so “average” in every way that I simply can’t believe it will advance. I forgot most of this story of an East German female doctor exiled to small town within hours of seeing the film in Paris (where it was a box-office success).

Switzerland might squeeze through, but I think the others are out.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES:

4. FRANCE- “Les Intouchables”
3. SPAIN- “Blancanieves”
2. DENMARK- “A Royal Affair”

A costume drama, a silent fairy tale and a box-office hit comedy from three of the European powers all stand a decent shot at making this year's shortlist.

FRANCE's "Les Intouchables" was a major box-office hit in the USA by foreign-language standards (it made 10 million Stateside). It's a broadly played comedy about the friendship between a wealthy quadriplegic and his African caretaker. While not a typical Oscar contender, it has won over audiences worldwide. It's a funny and charming film. However, ever since the film beat the most artistic "Rust & Bone" to represent France at the Oscars, there has been an unfortunate backlash against the film which is a shame, because it really is a goof movie. Not every movie at the Oscars has to be about children dying, marital angst or the horrors of World War II! Well-done comedies should have a shot. When all is said and done, "Les Intouchables" is a bit light for the Oscars. It will have to fight hard for that sixth-place slot in the Large Committee because the small one ain't choosing it.

DENMARK's 18th century costume drama "A Royal Affair" has gotten universally positive reviews for it's story of a young queen married to an insane king who falls into the arms of another man. Critics laud it as both a beautiful film and for its exciting screenplay detailing a true story of palace intrigue in a decidedly unstuffy way. It is also said to be a Dark Horse contender for some tech awards like Costume Design. I'm planning on seeing it this week. It's nearly a lock.

I don't think SPAIN's silent, B&W film adaptation of the fairy tale Snow White ("Blancanieves") will impress the large committee. I think the film, set in the 1920s amidst bullfighting, will be too weird for them and it won't appeal to this older, mainstream group. However, I feel pretty strongly that "Blancanieves" stands a strong chance at getting one of the three Elite spots in the way "Kelin" did a few years ago. (They never publicly announce which three films were "saved" by the elite committee, but it's sometimes easy to figure out). Nostalgia for silent films and the recent popularity of "The Artist" will help, not hurt.

LOCKS:

1. AUSTRIA- “Amour”
Even if the larger committee hates “Amour” (and they’ll probably love it...), the small, elite committee was specifically created to make sure films like this get saved. Therefore, Michael Haneke’s “Amour” , the story of a man trying to care for his aging wife, and the winner at the European Film Awards and at Cannes 2012 is an absolute lock for the shortlist and is the favorite to win (though I’m probably predicting Australia).

Now, the statistics:

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 20

Number of countries participating this year: 17

Number of countries opting out: LUXEMBOURG, which decided that they didn’t have  any Oscar-calibre films for the third year in a row, plus IRELAND and the UK, who obviously make mostly English-language films. The Brits should be well-represented in the other categories and are the front-runner for Best Actor (again) thanks to Daniel Day-Lewis.  

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Quite a few are in a chance….I’d say seven.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Four of the front-runner films are in French (Austria, Belgium, France and Switzerland) + one each in Danish, Dutch, Finnish, German, Greek, Greenlandic, Icelandic, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Swedish and Turkish. The Spanish film is silent with Spanish intertitles. In Italy’s “Caesar Must Die”, the actors each speak  in their own native Italian dialects.

Highest profile film: Michael Haneke’s “Amour”  (Austria) certainly has all the buzz thanks to near-universal love and its win at Cannes, while “Les Intouchables” (France) has all the box-office success. “A Royal Affair” (Denmark) and Berlin winner “Caesar Must Die” (Italy) are also pretty high-profile.

Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Of course, it’s Austria.  

Longest Shot for a Nomination: Greece’s “Unfair World” is not a bad film, but among this very strong field, reviews have been decidedly mixed.

Number of Comedies: France’s “Les Intouchables” is a mainstream comedy while Greece’s “Unfair World” is a black comedy-drama

Number of Animated Films, Horror Films or Documentaries: None, although “Caesar Must Die” has elements of a documentary.

Oscar History:  We have two former Oscar nominees in the running. Sweden’s Lasse Halstrom has never been in the running for a Foreign Language Oscar, although he does three Oscar nominations for Best Director (“My Life as a Dog”, “Cider House Rules”) and Best Screenplay (“My Life as a Dog”). Though “My Life as a Dog” was a critical success in the US, Sweden elected to send “Ronia, The Robber’s Daughter” to the Oscars instead of “Dog” way back in 1985

Also, Michael Haneke was nominated for “The White Ribbon” in 2010 but for Germany, not Austria (which has unsuccessfully submitted Haneke films four times previously).

Iceland’s Baltasar Kormakur has represented Iceland three times before (“The Sea”, “White Night Wedding” and “Jar City”) without luck. Italy’s Taviani Brothers (“The Night of the Shooting Stars, 1982), Portugal’s Joao Canijo (“Noite Escura”), Switzerland’s Ursula Meier (“Home”, 2009) and Norway’s Joachim Ronning & Espen Sandberg (“Max Manus, 2009) are also trying their luck with Oscar for the second time.

Nine of the seventeen countries have won an Oscar, while five others have been nominated and one (Turkey) has been shortlisted. Only hapless Portugal (which holds the world record for the most submissions without a nomination) and debutante Greenland (who has only ever entered the race once before) have never made the Final Nine.

Number of Female Directors: Just one. Switzerland’s Ursula Meier.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: The youngest director in the group is Belgium’s 37-year old Joachim Lafosse. 83-year old Vittorio Taziani and his 81-year old brother Paolo are the oldest directors in the competition worldwide.

Familiar Faces:      Experienced cineastes will certainly recognize the octogenarian leads of Austria’s Amour (Jean-Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva) who have been mainstays of the French cinematic scene for more than half a century. However, more familiar to contemporary audiences are a trio of French actors crossing the border- French actress Lea Seydoux (“Mission Impossible III”, “Inglourious Basterds”) plays the title role in Switzerland’s “Sister”, grande dame Isabelle Huppert co-stars in Austria’s “Amour” while Tahar Rahim (“Un Prophete”) plays the father in Belgium’s “Our Children”.

You’ll likely also recognize American actress Gillian Anderson (“X-Files”) who plays a small role in Switzerland’s “Sister” as well as Mads Mikkelsen in Denmark’s “Royal Affair”, Maribel Verdu in Spain’s “Blancanieves” and Oscar nominee Lena Olin in Sweden’s “The Hypnotist”.

Tough Choices: The toughest decision (as usual) belonged to France, who probably agonized over their decision to dump the acclaimed “Rust & Bone” (starring Best Actress contender Marion Cotillard) for “Les Intouchables”.

Denmark, Spain and Switzerland found themselves in the unusual position of having to eliminate four prior Oscar winners, including two returning to their home countries for the first time in decades. Bille August (“Pelle the Conqueror”) and Xavier Koller (“Journey of Hope”) won the Oscar in 1989 and 1991 respectively and had hoped for a second chance with period dramas “Marie Kroyer”  and “Someone Like Me”. The producers of “Kroyer” apparently opened their film their film early to qualify for the Oscars. Up against “A Royal Affair”, that was a dumb move. The third film on the Danish shortlist was Susanne Bier’s romantic comedy “Love Is All You Need”. Bier won the Oscar in 2011 for “In A Better World”. Fernando Trueba of Spain won the Oscar for “Belle Epoque” in 1994 and his French-language “The Artist and the Model” is widely expected to have come in second place to “Blancanieves” in this year’s Spanish race. 

A few other tough choices of note:  abstract B&W drama “Tabu” was widely expected to represent Portugal. Assisted suicide drama “Time of My Life” dominated the Flemish Film Awards but lost to the French-language “Our Children” (Contrary to popular belief, the Belgians do not automatically take turns between the two halves). I was not a big fan of Mateo Garrone’s horribly overrated “Gomorra” but many predicted he would rep Italy this year with “Reality”.

Also out of the running: “Paradise: Love” (Austria), “Naked Harbor” (Finland), “Alps” (Greece), “Suskind” (Netherlands), “Play” (Sweden) and “Araf” (Turkey).

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I’ve already seen the films from Belgium (B+), France (A-), Germany (C+), Greece (C+) and Switzerland (B) plus half the film from Portugal (the projector broke. L). My first priority would be to finish that film (which I liked quite a lot), but of course I’m also dying to see “Amour”, as well as “Inuk”.

Last year's race: I saw nine of last year’s eighteen films. Two of them were worthy of Oscar nominations (Ireland’s “As If I Am Not There” (A) + France’s “Declaration of War” A-) and it’s rather shocking that they failed to make the cut over mediocrities like “Bullhead” (C-), and “Superclasico”  (C). Worst film of 2011: Greece’s “Attenberg” (F).

NEXT: The candidates from Eastern Europe

Foreign Film Oscar Prediction 2012-2013, POLAND to VIETNAM

I was about to start a review of the year's race, but realized that my "P to Z" Post of predictions was somehow deleted....Not sure how that happened, so I'm reposting with no changes. Obviously I got a lot of these wrong!

79. POLAND’s most acclaimed film of the year is “Roza”, a story of the terrible violence committed against women living in the constantly shifting border regions of Germany, Poland and the USSR in 1945/6. It won Best Picture at the Polish Eagles (defeating Oscar nominee “In Darkness”) and has gotten universally positive reviews, making it an easy choice for the Polish Oscar submission. It should be able to beat “Totentanz: Scenes from the Warsaw Uprising”, a film premiering at the Moscow Film Festival, about the Polish capital immediately after the war. If they don’t want a movie about the end of WWII, they may try to go to back to the beginning with “The Secret of Westerplatte”, a controversial new film about a team of Polish soldiers trying unsuccessfully to fend off the 1939 German invasion. Films from this era have produced Poland’s two recent Oscar nominations. If they want more contemporary stories, they have “To Kill a Beaver”, a thriller about a man returning to his hometown for mysterious purposes and “Courage”, about a man mourning the death of his brother who was murdered after defending a woman from thugs while he stood idly by. Very dark horses: Juliette Binoche’s prostitute drama “Elles”, incest drama “Shameless”, and“Yuma”, about two friends who take divergent paths after the fall of Communism”. My Top Four: “Roza” with “Westerplatte” a close second, “Totentanz” in third (it may not open in time) and “To Kill A Beaver” in fourth.

80. PORTUGAL is hopeless in this category. Portugal holds the record for the most submitted films without a nomination (tied with Egypt) For the first time in many years, last year they had a genuine contender. “Mysteries of Lisbon” got a U.S. theatrical release, excellent reviews (despite a four-hour running time) and had lush production values. Portugal send a documentary about a local Nobel Literature laureate instead. Sigh. They simply don’t seem to know or care what Oscar likes. To that end, the most likely submission this year is the strange, arty B&W drama “Tabu”, which won two awards at Berlin. The plot is confusing…something about an old woman, multiple stories, Africa and crocodiles. It’s the sort of arthouse that the Portuguese send again and again, and the director has already been chosen once before (for “Our Beloved Month of August”). “Tabu”’s two chief challengers are box-office hits are family soap opera “Blood of My Blood” (the highest-grossing Portuguese film of 2011) and biodrama “Florbela” (the highest-grossing Portuguese film so far in 2012). “Blood of My Blood”, about a family in the slums of Lisbon, won Best Picture at this year’s Golden Globes, while “Florbela” is a popular melodrama about an early 20th century poetess. Reviews for both have been mixed in the West, which is normal for Portugal. If it’s released in time, “The Lines of Wellington” will be a strong contender. The war drama premieres at Venice and co-stars Catherine Deneuve and John Malkovich. Director Raul Ruiz died during filming and his wife completed the film. But I think it will premiere in Portugal next year as will 103-year old Manoel de Oliveira latest, “The Shadow of Gebu”. Other dark horse possibilities include “Hay Road”, about a man trying to avenge a murder and “A Woman’s Revenge”, about a 19th century Duchess who turns to prostitution to shame her husband.

81. PUERTO RICO was banned from the Oscar competition last year. I already ranted about how unfair and how stupid it is to exclude cine Boricua from the Oscars when Greenland, Hong Kong and Palestine are allowed to compete, despite similar status as culturally unique countries without statehood. When Palestine was admitted to the Foreign Oscar family, AMPAS noted that there was definitely a culture of distinctly Palestinian filmmakers. AMPAS correctly recognized this for Puerto Rico for 25 years before changing their mind. Hopefully, they will change the rules once again to re-admit Puerto Rico, but I doubt it. Still, I feel it is my responsibility to continue to include them. This year, film output was up (including the biggest-ever Puerto Rican box office success, “Que Joyitas!”) and, If allowed to send a film this year, I predict they would send “La Granja” (The Farm), a grim drama about three lives- a barren midwife, a failed boxer and a fat little boy- in a drug-addled Puerto Rican slum. They also would have considered “Los Condenados” (The Condemned) about a woman returning to her ancestral home, encountering townspeople and supernatural goings-on.

82. ROMANIA, surprisingly enough, has never been nominated for an Oscar. This year’s Romanian race has two front-runners and two dark horses. Dramas “The Best Intentions” (Locarno, Best Director 2011) and “Beyond the Hills” (Cannes, Best Screenplay/Actress, 2012) are the favorites, while comedies “Everybody in Our Family” (Winner, Sarajevo 2012) and “The Phantom Father” are fairly strong challengers. “Beyond the Hills” is the third feature by Cristian Mungiu (“4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days”). It’s a two-and-a-half film about a frantic Romanian girl trying to get her childhood friend- now a nun at a remote monastery- to return with her to Germany. It doesn’t have the buzz of “4 Months”, but it will likely represent the Romanians if it’s released before September 30. The problem is that it doesn’t yet have a domestic release date, which leaves the door wide open for “The Best Intentions”, a “realism” drama (sounds a bit like “Mr. Lazarescu”) about a man and his reaction to his mother’s stroke. It lost Best Picture at the Romanian Gopo Awards to “Aurora”, which in turn lost last year’s Romanian Oscar race against “Morgen”. “Everybody in Our Family” has gotten mixed reviews, though some think it’s a brilliant black comedy about a divorced man trying to salvage a vacation to the seaside with his young daughter. “The Phantom Father” is a road movie featuring an American professor trying to track down his roots in Romania by visiting the birthplace of a Chicago mobster ancestor. There’s too much competition for comedy “The Last Corrupted Man in Romania” by elderly Sergei Nicolaescu (who repped Romania five times) and “Loverboy”, a trafficking drama about a charming, sweet-talking young man who sells girls into prostitution, though the latter did manage a Best Picture nom at the Gopos despite middling reviews, and reunites the cast of “If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle”. My prediction: “Best Intentions” is Romania’s selection, with “Beyond the Hills” competing next year.

83. RUSSIA 83. created a big controversy last year when its selection committee chose a film a politically connected three-time Oscar nominee over two other more acclaimed productions. This year I predict that the Russians will send one of two frontrunners: either "The Conductor" (Shanghai, 2012), a spiritual music drama about a concert conductor haunted by the suicide of his son, who leads his company on a tour of Israel and "Siberia Mon Amour" (Moscow, 2011), the story of a seven-year old boy and his family living in the desolate Siberian taiga. The director of "Conductor", Pavel Lungin, has been passed over so many times, I wonder if they will feel he is due, or whether they just don't like him? Among the other films that shouldn't be counted out are "The Admirer" (which opened the Moscow Film Festival this year) which tells the story of a platonic love between Anton Chekhov and a married woman, "Dom: A Russian Family", about a man who returns to his dysfunctional family after years away, "The Horde", a beautiful epic period drama which shows the Russian resistance to the Mongol invasions, "Once Upon a Time There Lived a Simple Woman", which won the Nika for Best Picture about the daily miseries of a farmer and his wife living in early twentieth century Russia, and "White Tiger" directed by Karen Shakhnazarov, a fantasy-drama about a man who can talk to tanks during the Second World War. My prediction: "Siberia" will represent Russia, followed closely by "The Conductor" and "The Admirer" with "White Tiger" and "Dom: A Russian Family" completing the top five.

84. SERBIA can be proud that the top two films at the box office over the past eighteen months have been domestic Serbian features- black comedy “The Parade” (#3 in history) and 19th century dramedy “Professor Kosta Vujic’s Hat”. Serbia can also be embarrassed that the #3 film was “The Smurfs”. Oh well. Unlikely hit comedy “The Parade” is about a middle-aged, homophobic Serbian gangster who reluctantly agrees to protect a gay pride parade in Belgrade against neo-Nazis after a gay couple saves his dog from a bullet wound. How’s that for an original plot? “The Parade”’s director has been chosen twice before to rep Serbia, and the film has been a hit all over the former Yugoslavia. It has also forced the countries of the region to examine their poor record on LGBT human rights. Reviews have been mostly (but universally) positive but it’s one of the films I’m most looking forward to seeing this year. The Serbs have a talent for black comedies and frequently send them to the competition. The competition is not so strong. “Redemption Street” is a rare thriller that acknowledges Serbian war crimes, “Klip” is about a teenaged girl with a penchant for webcams, “Dr. Ray and his Devils”, about an American filmmaker living in Communist Yugoslavia, and the aforementioned box-office hit “Hat”, which examines a nineteenth century teacher’s relationship with his students who would go on to be important historical figures. All films have gotten middling reviews, although “Dr. Ray” and especially “Redemption Street” have a chance at bashing “The Parade” into second place. I’m interested in seeing a pair of black comedies “Death of a Man in the Balkans” (a man commits suicide on a webcam which is left on after his death, and which records his friend’s and neighbor’s reactions for 80 minutes) and “Loveless Zoritsa”, about a young woman whose lovers all meet a quick and untimely death, but neither has a chance to represent Serbia. The competition may be weak this year, but three of Serbia’s greatest modern-day directors have films scheduled to be released in late 2012. Next year will be extremely competitive due to new films by Srdan Golubovic (“The Trap”), Goran Markovic (“Tito and Me”, “Turneja”) and Goran Paskaljevic (“Powder Keg”), dealing with the Bosnian War, the break-up of Yugoslavia and the Holocaust respectively.

85. SINGAPORE has sent films four of the past seven years, since rejoining the Oscar race in 2005. Three of those four films were arthouse films directed by Eric Khoo, all of which competed at the Cannes Film Festival. Singapore cinema has been doing incredibly well at the local box office lately, but their slate of locally themed comedies and horror movies aren’t made for critics awards. I think Singapore will skip this year, but their most likely submission is “Imperfect”, an action-drama about local teens getting involved with triad violence. Sending a commercial local film like comedy “Already Famous” or “We Not Naughty” (by Jack Neo, who helped jump-start the Singapore film industry in the late 1990s), or a sentimental romance like “Timeless Love” would be surprising but not unheard of. They sent one commercial feature- musical “881”- in 2007.

86. SLOVAKIA’shighest-profile film of the year is “Made in Ash”, the debut film ofIveta Grofova. Like last year’s entry (“Gypsy”), this film focuses on the trials and tribulations of Slovakia’s Roma population (2% of the national population). In the documentary-style “Made in Ash”, we meet a Roma teenager who unwittingly enters the world of human trafficking while seeking work across the border. The question is whether the film will be released in Slovak cinemas before September 30. I don’t think it will, so I’m predicting the Slovaks send “The Confidant”, a thriller-comedy-drama about a man who becomes a police informant to protect his girlfriend. It’s by a previously submitted director (Juraj Nvota) and the highest-grossing Slovak film of 2012 so far. The two main challengers include “Visible World” which, like “Confidant” is a Czech co-production about surveillance (“World” focuses on a creepy, introverted Czech living in Bratislava who spies on the people around him), and “Tigers in the City”, a quirky romantic comedy about three twenty-somethings looking for love. “Miracle”, a drama about a 15-year old who is forced out of a love affair and into a rehab center, by the director of “Blind Loves”, could come into play if it’s released in time, or it may challenge “Made in Ash” next year. Probably out of their league: “Dance Between the Fragments”, an abstract drama about life an dance, “Love” (Slovak slang for money), a hit drama about a young man tempted by gangster life and “Immortalitas”, Slovak’s first attempt at 3D science-fiction.

87. SLOVENIA was disqualified last year, reportedly because their secretary forgot to actually send their film to Los Angeles (they had officially selected odd silent drama “Circus Fantastictus”). Hopefully they’ll remember to go to the post office this year. Seven of the past eight years, Slovenia has selected the Best Picture winner at the Festival of Slovenian Film, held every autumn. That should theoretically make last year’s winner- abstract drama “Archeo”- the frontrunner, but I’m guessing this story of a nameless man, woman and child existing in the wilderness is going to be a bit too weird to send in. Like last year’s nominee, “Archeo” has no dialogue. More likely is “The Trip”, a road movie about three best friends (a straight guy, gay guy and straight girl) who reunite for a road trip and discover how much they have grown apart. It won five awards (including Actor, Actress and Screenplay and the Slovenian Critics Award) at the Festival and seems much more accessible. “Bread and Circuses” (winner of the Audience Award), a nostalgic family comedy about a luckless family in pre-independence Slovenia who are selected to appear on a game show, should be a considered a dark horse but it is clearly more for local audiences than international ones. “Shanghai Gypsy”, about a Roma family, is scheduled to premiere in October and may be competitive for next year’s race.

88. SOUTH AFRICA’s multi-lingual film industry makes finding an eligible film difficult, since most of their movies (like much of their population) switch languages back and forth between English, Afrikaans and one or more African languages. To be eligible for the Academy Award, films must be more than 50% in a language other than English. I predict this year’s nominee from South Africa will be “Lucky”, the story of a cranky (and borderline racist) Indian South African woman and a 10-year old AIDS orphan. The film, in Hindi, Zulu and English, has gotten good reviews and Oscar just loves a story about old people bonding with small children. The main problem is that its Anglo-Indian director is not a South African, but I’m predicting it anyway. Another contender is “Man on Ground” (in Zulu, Sotho, English and the Yoruba language of Nigeria) a mystery-thriller about two Nigerians living in South Africa which, if chosen, would be the first time a black director has repped South Africa at the Oscars (which is ironic because its director is not a local, but a naturalized South African citizen from Nigeria). The low-budget “Otelo Burning” (in Zulu), was filmed with a handheld camera through extensive workshops with local kids….Directed by a white South African woman raised in NYC, it’s about young black surfers from the townships in apartheid-era 1989. It’s unlikely but possible. Hit romantic comedy “Semi-Sweet” (basically “The Proposal” in Afrikaans) made a lot of money but isn’t supposed to be that good…..

89. SPAIN has four favorites and only three places on its annual shortlist. All four are thrillers and three of them are set in the past....Which one will Spain choose and which one will be ignored in the final Three? Starting chronologically, in the 1880s we have "Holmes & Watson: Madrid Days", the latest film from four-time Oscar-nominee (and one-time winner) Jose Luis Garci. Garci has not been selected by the Spanish Academy in ten years, but each of his productions has been a finalist. This latest production finds Sherlock Holmes up against English serial killer Jack the Ripper in Madrid. Set in the 1950s we "Miel de naranjas" (Honey Orange), another film about the Spanish Civil War, this time a historical thriller about a young man who changes sides during the conflict. From the 1980s we have "Grupo 7" (Unit 7) a corrupt cop thriller. This film has been acquired by HBO for a US release. Finally, we have "No habrá paz para los malvados" (No Rest for the Wicked), a thriller about a crazed cop who kills several innocent people while pursuing an Islamic fundamentalist group. This rare film noir won Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor at the Spanish Goya Awards. My prediction: "Wicked" will represent Spain with "Group 7" and "Holmes & Watson" being the other finalists.

90. SRI LANKA (last submitted 2009) has sent films twice- one arthouse film in 2003, and one somewhat political film in 2009 about the recently ended civil war. This year, I predict the Sri Lankans will send “Matha”, a somewhat controversial film about two Tamil youths (a girl and boy) who are conscripted by the LTTE terrorists who are waging war against the Sri Lankan government. The film is by a respected director and fits nicely with the Government’s point of view on the civil war, which they are actively trying to promote abroad. It also sounds like quite an interesting film. If they want to go arthouse instead, they have “August Drizzle”, a slow and poorly reviewed film about the life of a lady mortician. The Sri Lankans have never chosen a period film, but they also have “Kusa Paba”, a colorful Bollywood-style period fairy tale set 2500 years ago.

91. SWEDEN has four main contenders. From 2011, we have “Play” and “Simon & the Oaks”, which competed against each other for Best Picture at this year’s Guldbagge Awards (they both lost to “She-Monkeys”, which was eligible last year). Best Director winner “Play” is a challenging film that looks at racial issues in modern-day Swedish society, in which a group of black kids bully and rob a Swedish classmate (but it’s a bit more complicated than that). “Simon & the Oaks”, a coming-of-age tale set against the backdrop of WWII in neutral Sweden, got the most nominations at this year’s Guldbagges, although in the end it only won two acting awards. (Like in “Simple Simon”, Bill Skarsgard plays the title character of “Simon”). Oscar nominee Patrick Eklund has “Flicker”, which won Best Picture at the Gothenborg Film Festival. It revolves around a number of quirky characters enduring a power blackout in their small Swedish town. Eklund got an Oscar nomination for his comic short film “Instead of Abracadabra” in 2010 (it lost but deserved to win). The final contender is “The Hypnotist” by three-time Oscar nominee Lasse Halstrom. While he has received Oscar nominations for Best Director (twice) and Best Screenplay, his films have never been selected to represent his native Sweden. “The Hypnotist” is a thriller about a police detective and a psychologist trying to unravel a mystery with the help of a traumatized young witness. It’s Halstrom’s first Swedish-language film in 25 years. Dark horse: “Big Boys Gone Bananas”, a documentary about the efforts of the Dole Corporation trying to prevent a Swedish documentary about the company from being released. I think this will come down to a two-way race between “Play” and “Flicker”. My prediction: “Flicker” represents Sweden, with “Play” in second and “Simon and the Oaks” in third.

92. SWITZERLAND made things easy this year by setting an early deadline for submissions, and announcing in mid-July that five films were competing for the award. The frontrunner has to be “Someone Like Me” by 1991 Foreign Oscar winner Xavier Koller (“Journey of Hope”), in what is only Koller’s second Swiss film in the past two decades. The Swiss German-language “Someone Like Me” is a period piece based on a famous novel about a young barber with a harelip who falls in love with a village girl whose parents oppose the union. It lost Best Picture at the Swiss Film Awards to last year’s Swiss Oscar submission (the unloved “Summer Games”) but should manage to represent Switzerland this year. Challenger Ursula Meier (“Home”) is hoping for an upset for her film, “Sister” (Berlin), a French-language film about a 12-year old thief and his older sister trying to make ends meet at a ski resort town. In third place: Swiss German drama “The Foster Boy”, about a teenager without parents forced to work for an abusive village family. It was also nominated for Best Picture at the Swiss Film Awards this year. It’s difficult to see them choosing either of the other two films, namely the upcoming “Lullaby Ride” (in German), about a middle-aged couple trying to chase down the two punks who stole their car with their sleeping toddler inside, or “Operation Libertad” (in French), a docudrama about 70s leftists which has gotten universally negative reviews. Surprisingly missing from the shortlist: post-apocalyptic thriller “Hell”, about a world parched by the Sun, which I predicted last year, but which actually opened in Switzerland in October 2011. It is executive produced by Roland Emmerich (“Independence Day”) and got a Best Picture nomination at the German Lolas.

93. TAIWAN made the Oscar shortlist last year for the first time since Ang Lee went to Hollywood, although they probably got some help from the Executive Committee for their four-hour aboriginal action film. This year, I predict Taiwan will send “GF*BF” (aka “Girlfriend Boyfriend”), a love triangle drama set against the backdrop of three decades of political turmoil in Taiwan in the 60s, 70s and 80s. It opened the Taipei Film Festival in July and will premiere in cinemas in September. In second place: Zero Chou’s new costume drama “Ripples of Desire” (a.k.a. “Lovers are Gamblers”, “Hua Yang” or “Scarlet”) which opens this summer and has something to do with pirates. The problem with predicting two films that haven’t opened is if both films flop or fail with critics. In that case, the nomination will probably go to “Starry Starry Night”, a visually impressive film fantasy-drama about two teens fleeing family dysfunction. Less likely: “Four Hands”, about an old man looking back on his long life, and “Return to Burma”, about a Burmese immigrant in Taiwan who returns to his home country. Successful lightweight local films like “Din Tao”, about a band of teen drummers, or popular romantic comedies “Love” or “Soul of Bread” may entertain, but won’t be able to compete here. Some may predict “Eat Drink Man Woman 2”, the sequel to Taiwan’s second Oscar nominee, but reviews have not been good.

94. TAJIKISTAN (last submitted 2005) rarely produces feature films although the ones I have seen have been among the best from Central Asia (Luna Papa, Sex & Philosophy). This year, Tajikistan got a nomination for Best CIS-Baltic Film at the Russian Nika Awards for the first time since the award was introduced in 2006. The nominee “Presumed Consent” is a majority Russian production by a Tajik director about the discrimination faced by the Uzbek community in Moscow. It’s their most likely choice. There’s also fully Tajik film “Suicider” (Самоубийца), a low-budget fairy tale about a proud father who is given disturbing news by a fortune teller. It looks interesting, but pretty amateur.

95. TANZANIA’s (last submitted 2001) most likely submission this year is “Zamora”, a mystical Swahili-language romance filmed on the formerly independent island of Zanzibar, featuring a love story between an African man and a mysterious Arab-Omani girl who encourages him to settle down on the island. I doubt the film will inspire Tanzania to rejoin the Oscar race though, which they only entered once in 2001.

96. THAILAND usually sends quirky and entertaining films to the Oscars (except when they feel international pressure to send, for example, a dreadful Cannes winner like “Uncle Boonmee”) but they’ve never managed to make the next round. Last year, they selected a “pretty film” about a Thai dance troupe with poor reviews, admitting that they chose films in large part to promote Thai culture abroad. Thai audiences love gross-out comedy, ghosts and “omnibus” films that feature interlocking stories. This year, there are five leading contenders: “Four Stations” is a low-budget anthology co-funded by the Thai Culture Ministry (I think they choose the Thai nominee!) featuring four stories- one from each of Thailand’s traditional regions; “Headshot”, directed by Pen-ek Ratunaruang (who represented Thailand at the Oscars three times between 2000 and 2003) is a thriller, made largely for international audiences, about a corrupt cop who sees the world upside down after a gunshot wound; “Home”, directed by Chookiat Sakveerakul (“Love of Siam”, the charming 2008 Thai candidate), is a three-story drama about love and friendship set in Chiang Mai, including another (possibly) gay teen love story; “King Naresuan 5” is the latest film in the big-budget royalist franchise (the noble-born director just declared bankruptcy) whose second part repped Thailand in 2007; and “Shambala”, a long-awaited road movie set in Tibet and starring local heartthrob Ananda Everingham. The Thais are unpredictable and could really go for any of these, or even “P-047”, a quirky but divisive indie about burglars “who steal memories” that has been visible on the film festival circuit, “It Gets Better”, a well-received local film about a transgender woman in love, or”Mother’s Milk”, a morality drama like Thailand used to send in the 80s and 90s. “Naresuan” and “Stations” would best rep Thai culture, but I’m going to predict “Home” based on its reviews, with “Headshot” in second place and “King Naresuan” in third.

97. TUNISIA (last submitted 2002)’s political transition has effectively slowed down their filmmaking industry, with mostly documentaries and shorts being produced since the Tunisians sparked the Arab Spring in 2011. The Tunisians haven’t sent a film in a decade, so they’ll probably sit this year out as well, until the cameras get rolling again. If they do decide to re-enter the race, the most likely option would be “Rouge Parole”, probably the best documentary about the Arab Spring made this year. It focuses on the nationwide fervor to overthrown President Ben Ali outside the major cities seen on international news. If they want to send a fiction film, they could send “Tunisian Stories”, about the lives of three modern Tunisian women or, less likely, “Always Brando”, a bizarre film (half in English) about Hollywood morality and a Marlon Brando-lookalike. It’s directed by Ridha Behi, who helmed Tunisia’s last submission in 2002

98. TURKEY’s Academy has gone arthouse four of the past five years, perhaps heartened by their shortlist spot for “Three Monkeys”. They don’t have any long, boring Ceylan/Kaplanoglu films this year so the Turkish spot is up for the grabs and I see four main contenders. If they want to go “big”, they’ll choose “Conquest 1453”, an expensive 15th century period epic/action movie that screened for the Prime Minister, and has sold more tickets than any Turkish film in history. If they want to go a bit lighter, they’ll choose comedy “Ecotopia”, about a group of intellectual environmentalists who move to a small village to be closer with nature. It dominated the awards at the Ankara Film Festival (one of Turkey’s three main festivals). If they want something more sentimental, they’ll choose “My Grandfather’s People”, a popular, mainstream drama about the wave of 2 million Turks who left Greece in the 1920s. If they want something a bit more arthouse, they could easily choose “Night of Silence”, which won a Crystal Bear in Berlin, about a child bride trying to avoid consummating her marriage on her wedding night. A strong fifth option is “Inside”, an acclaimed but dark film about a singularly unpleasant antihero (based on a Dostoevsky story) which won a number of awards in Istanbul (though it lost Best Picture). I suppose this year’s winners of Best Turkish Film at Anatalya (multi-strand drama “To Better Days”) and Istanbul (psychological horror film “Beyond the Hill”) are also in with a shot, while controversial gay-themed drama “Zenne Dancer” (which has won lots of awards but caused lots of controversy) is probably out of luck. Either melodrama “Can” or socialist youth drama “Love and Revolution” may join the above eight films on the shortlist but won’t come into play. My predictions: the gentle drama of “My Grandfather’s People” will get the better of the popular spectacle of “Conquest 1453”, with “Night of Silence” a distant third.

99. UKRAINE (last submitted 2008) hasn’t entered the race in four years. They have however usually made an announcement that their official national committee did convene and determined that qualified/eligible films weren’t available. So they theoretically seem to want to enter. This year’s clear front-runner is “Firecrosser”, a patriotic true story of a heroic Ukrainian Soviet soldier whose amazing life including combat in WWII, capture by the Nazis, imprisonment in a Soviet gulag and emigration to Canada where he apparently became a Mohawk Indian chief. It has won numerous awards in the former USSR, it was co-financed by a government ministry and it was released in Ukrainian cinemas in January (unlike some art films) so it appears to qualify. “Land of Oblivion” (Venice 2011), the story of a number of Chernobyl survivors over the years, is more high-profile but this French majority co-production with an Israeli director may not be considered Ukrainian enough by the Film Academy. It premiered in Ukrainian cinemas in April. In third place: Karlovy Vary “East of the West” winner “House with a Turret”, a B&W drama about a boy orphaned during a journey with his sick mother in 1945. Ukrainian cinema seems to be slowly waking up from a long slumber with a number of diverse productions including teen drama (“Gamer”), family comedies (“Rock n Ball”), horror (“Synevir”) and even a co-production with Nigeria (“Feathered Dreams”) but these won’t be of interest to Oscar.

100. The UNITED KINGDOM doesn’t appear to have any Welsh-language films this year, meaning they’ll have to look further afield to their immigrant communities or, more likely, not to send a film at all. The only options I can see available to them are the Hindi-language Bollywood-style musical “Naachle London!” or Persian-language action-thriller “Black Day”. I doubt the UK will send anything this year, but “Naachle London”, directed by a Kolkata-born Brit, is the more likely of the two. Filled with singing and dancing, this romantic comedy-drama has cheerfully billed itself as the first-ever “Bolly-Brit” film, “with its heart in Bollywood, head in Hollywood but made entirely in Britain!” The Brits have said in the past that they will only send a film if it has a realistic chance of competing for the Oscar, but if they want to promote British cinema, it would be nice to have them in the race.

101. URUGUAY had films at Berlin and Cannes this year, and it’s possible they may dump them both for an unheralded comedy. They’ve done it before…When “Gigante” won the Silver Bear in Berlin in 2009, they ignored it for “A Bad Day to Go Fishing”. No Oscar nomination, but it was a smart move. “Bad Day” was the better film. “Three”, a minimalist dysfunctional family comedy by the director of “Whisky”, played at Director’s Fortnight at Cannes but hasn’t gotten great reviews. “The Delay” (“La Demora”) tells the sad story of an overwhelmed single mother who, in a moment of stress, abandons her elderly father in a park. It won the Prize of the Ecumenical Jury in Berlin 2012 and takes place in Uruguay, but the director is Mexican and the Uruguayans may still be stung from when they picked a movie by an Argentinian director, got nominated and were disqualified a few weeks before the Oscars. I’m guessing they choose “La Culpa del Cordero” (Lamb’s Fault), a dramedy about a retired couple who invite their four children for a weekend in the country where unexpected secrets are revealed. A fourth option is “Solo”, a droll comedy about a man whose wife leaves him and who soon finds himself being sent to Antarctica. It’s the sort of droll comedy that the Uruguayan’s have a habit of sending. My prediction: “La Culpa del Cordero” is the surprise pick for the Oscars, followed by “La Demora” and “Solo”.

102. VENEZUELA’s major national film festival is the Festival del Cine Venezolano. This year, two films- “Brecha en el silencio” (Pit of Silence) and “Patas Arriba” (Upside Down)- won nearly all the awards. I’m going to make things easy and predict they go with “Patas Arriba”, a family drama about a grandfather and granddaughter who escape their dysfunctional family to the countryside in order to fulfill a promise to the man’s late wife. It won Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and Actor and so should be considered the frontrunner. Other films that did well at the festival, “Brecha en el silencio”, a gritty drama about a hearing-impaired woman living in a slum, won the Audience Award plus five others and “Memories of a Soldier”, a costume drama set in the early years of Venezuelan independence, which won three technical prizes. Dark horses include “The Blue Apple” about a spoiled city kid bonding with his elderly grandfather in the countryside, “The Two Faces of Caracas”, another film about slum life, and “Eternal Ashes”, about a woman stranded in the Amazon jungle, where she encounters an isolated tribe. I predict they send “Patas”, with “Brecha” in second and “Ashes” in third.

103. VIETNAM is still the only Southeast Asian country to get an Oscar nomination (in 1993 for the dull “Scent of Green Papaya”). This year’s four main competitors include two films by the national film studio- “Scent of Burning Grass” and “Mother’s Heart”, and two films from the independent film studios that are churning out more popular films, “Blood Letter” and “Lost in Paradise”. The gay love story at the center of “Lost in Paradise” has caused controversy in conservative Vietnam, but the film has been an unexpected critical and financial success. It got a local release in fall 2011, as did martial-arts-epic-cum-costume-drama (Vietnam sent one last year) “Blood Letter”, directed by Vietnamese-American Victor Vu. “Scent of Burning Grass”, a Vietnam War drama (they sent one in 2009), won the top award at the Vietnamese Golden Kite Awards, but it has not managed to get a local release yet, nor has “Mother’s Heart”. “Heart”, about a single mother and her daughter in the countryside, is a quiet outsider, co-funded by the Global Film Initiative. I think it will come down to “Burning Grass” vs. “Blood Letter”, although I’m rooting for “Lost in Paradise”. Since neither film from the national studio has made it to cinemas, I predict “Blood Letter” gets chosen.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

Other than South Africa, only seven films from sub-Saharan Africa have ever been submitted for this award. That’s a shame because Africa produces some good films. This year’s most likely debutante from Africa is clearly SENEGAL, which had a banner year, competing for the Golden Bear in Berlin (for “Today”) and also in Cannes Un Certain Regard competition (for “The Pirogue”). Senegal really should send one of the films but, alas, they probably won’t. “Le Pirogue”, a drama about tensions aboard a small, overcrowded boat ferrying Senegalese and Guinean illegal immigrants to Spain, is the more likely of the two to get Senegal into the race. The UNITED ARAB EMIRATES has been dedicating ample funds to film and film development and one of these days, they’ll become a regular participant at the Oscars. This year I think they may send “Sea Shadow”, about teenage love/flirting in conservative Emirati society. It premiered at the Abu Dhabi film festival and got a theatrical release in 2012. I don’t really think we’ll see a debutante from the Asia-Pacific region this year, but the most likely ones are UZBEKISTAN for “Hanaan”, a depressing drama that played in Locarno, about disenfranchised youth from the country’s large Korean community.

71 Nominees!

Wow! AMPAS accepted 71 films! I think the previous record was 65....

This is great because it means that AMPAS didn't disqualify any of the 68 previously announced films...Some national submissions were definitely borderline, so I applaud them for showing some flexibility!

You can see the official list here:
http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2012/20121008a.html

KENYA was accepted to the competition for the first time (though their press release indicates they previously tried to send "Heart of Fire" a German co-production filmed in Kenya by an Italian director, about the civil war in Eritrea...) while CAMBODIA, GREENLAND and MALAYSIA all submitted for the second time.

I find it interesting that every year, we see some common themes crossing across international boundaries. As always, we see a lot of historical themes revolving about World War II (Australia, Macedonia, Russia, Serbia), Communism (Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Poland, Ukraine) and Latin American dictatorships in the 1970s (Argentina, Chile, Peru) plus cute kids coming of age (Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Netherlands, Palestine).....

However, this year we're also seeing movies about "reality TV and the new media" (China, Dominican Republic, Georgia), "young women crossing borders to seek a better life" (Kyrgyzstan, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia), as well as "eldercare/convalescent care" (Afghanistan, Austria, France, Uruguay) reflecting a number of global trends.

We also have one documentary short, one silent movie, a remake of a telenovela and a kickboxing movie! And with eleven films directed by women, I think that's a new record as well.....

Over the next few months, I'll be doing an analysis of the 71 films from the front-runners (probably Australia and Austria) to the longest of long-shots (probably Greece and Lithuania) and everyone in-between. I've seen five of the nominees and hope to see a lot more in the coming months.

PS- For those of you living in the United States, two of the nominees are already available on Netflix (Hong Kong and Thailand)

Happy viewing!