Predictions for the 2014 Academy Award for Best Foreign Film- EASTERN EUROPE + THE MIDDLE EAST

Here are my predictions for the 26 countries of Eastern Europe (including Russia, the Balkans and the surrounding neighborhood) plus the Middle East and North Africa.

Last year, 18 of these countries sent films....This year, we may actually see up to 20, since I think we may see a debut from Eastern Europe (Montenegro?) and the return of one of the Middle Eastern countries (Iraq?). Sadly, I don't see Iran returning this year, although I hope they do.

MOST LIKELY TO ENTER: Lots of these countries submit every year....ISRAEL is most likely since they automatically send their Ophir winner, although Croatia, Russia and Serbia have submitted every year since at least 1994.
LEAST LIKELY TO ENTER: Grumpy BELARUS, which last sent a film in 1996.
MOST LIKELY TO GET AN OSCAR NOMINATION: There are some definite contenders (Palestine, Romania) but I'm going to predict the Dark Horse from SERBIA.

1. ALBANIA- "Agon" Albania's most likely submission is “Agon”, a controversial, violent film about two Albanian brothers trying to adjust to life as migrants in Greece. One brother attempts to assimilate, while the other gravitates towards a life of crime. As far as I know, it’s Albania’s only fiction feature this year, although they also have “Anija- The Boat”, a documentary about Albanians fleeing the collapsing Communist regime in the early 1990s on treacherous boats to Italy. It recently won Best Documentary at Italy’s David di Donatello Awards. Albania has entered five years in a row and will probably enter. I predict “Agon”.

2. ALGERIA- "Yema" Algeria, in a fair world, would submit Merzak Allouache's “The Repentant” (Cannes 2012), a critically acclaimed drama about a former jihadist who faces anger and resentment when he returns to his village after accepting a government amnesty. However, the controversial subject matter and Allouache’s censorship problems with Algerian authorities will probably prevent that from ever happening. I don’t think “Repentant” has even been able to screen in Algeria. The Algerian nominee is thus probably going to be “Yema” (Best Director at Dubai 2012, also played at FESPACO), a film revolving around intrigues and conflicts within a Kabyle (Berber) family led by a grim matriarch, immediately after the death of one of her sons. Reviewers compare it to a Berber version of a Greek tragedy. Other possibilities include a pair of European co-productions about Algerian homecomings: “Perfumes of Algiers” (with Italy), a drama about a sister who returns from France after her brother is arrested for terrorist activity, and “Born Somewhere”, a French comedy co-starring Jamel Debbouze ("Amelie", "Days of Glory") about a French-Algerian (not Jebbouze) who goes to Algeria for the first time after the death of his father. I’m hoping for “The Repentant” or “Born Somewhere”, but I have a feeling this will go to “Yema”.

 

3. ARMENIA- "I'm Going to Change My Name" Armenia submits infrequently (four obscure films since their 2001 debut) but they just celebrated the the 10^th anniversary of their National Film Festival, and they inaugurated their first annual National Film Awards in 2012 so I think we'll begin seeing them more regularly. This year, I predict they send "I'm Going To Change My Name" (aka "It's Not Me"), the winner of the local Armenian Oscars (the Hayak Awards) and one of two Armenian films competing in the Main Section of the Golden Apricot Film Festival. It's a thriller about virtual dating, about a lonely young woman who meets a potentially dangerous man on the Internet. I was originally going to choose "Voice of Silence", an abstract drama about a recently returned émigré from America on a road trip with a very unattractive woman. It was made by a well-regarded previously submitted director (Vigen Chaldranyan) who keeps company with the Armenian President, but the trailer consists mostly of the two of them beating on drums. It really looks bad. Armenia sent a documentary once, so I wouldn’t count out “The Endless Return”, a feature-length documentary about the Armenian diaspora and their connection to the motherland. Less likely: Historical biopic “Garegin Nzhdeh” looks stunning but reviews weren’t as strong as the other films, “Paradjanov” is the biopic of a renowned Armenian film director but it's a Ukrainian co-production, "Wandering", an odd little rock opera, played at the Golden Apricots but it wasn't selected for the Main Competition. My prediction: “It’s Not Me", followed by "Voice of Silence" and “Endless Return”.

4. AZERBAIJAN- "Ambassador Sübhün" Azerbaijan has become a semi-regular participant recently, submitting four films since their 2007 debut. They’ve also been pouring a lot of their oil money into the arts (film, theatre, sports, and of course Eurovision!) and you can now watch some of their recent films for free online. This year, I predict they send “Ambassador Sübhün”, a 19^th century biopic of a renowned writer and statesman. In second place should be “Steppe Man” (aka Çölçü ), a languorous look at the life of a shepherd living in a remote rural area, and his quest to find a bride after his father’s death. It has represented Azerbaijan at a number of international film festivals (including Georgia, Italy, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan).

5. BELARUS- "To Steal Belmondo" Belarus sent two Jewish-themed films in the mid-1990s shortly after independence (although neither was directed by a Belarusian), but they’ve been absent since 1996. “In the Fog”, a drama about a man suspected of Nazi collaboration by the Communist resistance in 1942 Nazi-occupied Belarus, competed for the Palme d’Or at Cannes 2012. It is set in Belarus and directed by a Belarus-born (but Russian-based) filmmaker, but it is clearly a Russian-majority production. Belarus also had two features showing at the Listopad Film Festival in Minsk, namely spy thriller “Saltpeter No. 7” and intriguing comedy “To Steal Belmondo” (aka "Stealing Belmondo"), about a man whose trip to Paris, France accidentally lands him in the tiny rural village of Paris, Belarus. They won’t enter of course, but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Belmondo”.

6. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker" Bosnia is almost certain to choose the awkwardly titled “An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker”. Though it sounds like a Soviet documentary from the 1970s, it’s actually the latest drama from Danis Tanovic who won the Foreign Oscar for “No Man’s Land” in 2002. It’s the grim tale of a laborer from a Roma (Gypsy) village who can’t afford appropriate medical treatment for his ailing, pregnant wife. It won two awards in Berlin which, combined with his previous Oscar win, makes it a certainty to represent Bosnia. The chief competition is “The Stranger”, a Croatian co-production about a Bosnian Croat conflicted over whether to attend the funeral of a dear Bosniak Muslim friend years after the war (the Bosnians may not consider it to be a true "Bosnian" film). Dark horses:  “Krivina”, by a Canadian-Bosnian émigré who left Bosnia during the war as a child, and “For Those Who Can Tell No Tales” by Bosnia’s second-most acclaimed director (after Tanovic), Jasmila Zbanic, which may run into language issues (the lead is Australian) and may not premiere before the September 30 deadline. We may also see an unknown new contender debut at the Sarajevo Film Festival in August, (perhaps upcoming family drama "Berina's Chakras")

7. BULGARIA- "Colour of the Chameleon" Bulgaria‘s two usual precursors are the Best Bulgarian Feature at the Sofia International Film Festival (SIFF) and Best Picture Award at the Bulgarian Film Awards. This year’s biggest film at international film festivals has been the peculiar “Colour of the Chameleon”, a somewhat abstract comedy-thriller about a Bulgarian spy and his antics making life difficult for people before and after Communism. It’s supposed to be very weird, but it won Best Picture at the Bulgarian Oscars and its fans say it’s a lot of fun. “Colour of the Chameleon” lost the SIFF award to “Alienation”, a drama about a Greek family who cross the border to Bulgaria in order to buy a baby but who end up sitting out a storm with the family, waiting for it to be born.  I’m predicting “Colour of the Chameleon”, which has gotten more play internationally. Although Bulgaria has traditionally chosen the SIFF winner, they haven’t done so the past three years. If they opt for something else, it’s most likely to be either “July” (Moscow 2012), about three women (including a trafficking victim) who encounter violence and corruption at a seemingly idyllic resort, or “Sunny Side”, a Bulgarian "Brigadoon" about a church that periodically re-emerges from a flooded plain. Unlikely but possible:  the other main nominee from this year’s Bulgarian Oscars, “I Am You”, about the life of a 90-year old woman, and Russian co-production, “Incognita” about life at the opera. Not eligible: I’ve heard warmly received comedy “Migration of the Belted Bonito” appeared on television before cinemas. Fun but impossible: the Bulgarian “Pistol, Briefcase and 3 Stinking Barrels”, a parody (copy?) of the British film “Lock Stock”. Not finished: “The Judgement, directed by Stephen Komandrev who got Bulgaria its first-ever slot on the Oscar shortlist, will probably represent Bulgaria next year for its story of a border guard haunted by memories of killing an East German couple fleeing Communism.

8. CROATIA- "Halima's Path" Croatia’s national cinema is traditionally one of the weakest in Eastern Europe (and former Yugoslavia). Since independence, Croatia has produced a modest number of arthouse pieces, most of which were barely seen inside or outside Croatia. Things are turning around. In the past six months, Croatia has seen the Top 2 domestic box-office hits since independence, namely comedies “Sonja and the Bull” and “The Priest’s Children”. The Pula Film Festival this month is showing a record 14 new local films. And, a few weeks ago, Croatia joined the European Union, meaning they will now be invited to EU Film Festivals and more doors will be open to co-productions with the richer countries of Western Europe. This year, I predict the Croatians will elect drama “Halima’s Path” to the Oscars. It's about a Bosniak woman desperate to identify the remains of her son killed during the war but who refuses to submit to a DNA test in order to conceal the fact that she is not his biological mother. Director Arsen Ostojic has repped Croatia twice before, and “Halima” has been well-received by critics abroad. The only downside is that the film is a Bosnian co-production (like another contender “The Stranger”) and the Croatians may not consider it as a genuinely local film…but I think Ostojic's credentials will be enough to qualify for the Croatian nod. If not, I think they’ll choose hit comedy “The Priest’s Children” about a priest furious at lax attitudes towards Catholic dogma on contraception and who then gleefully sabotages a town’s condom supply, resulting in a huge baby boom. Director Vinko Bresan has also repped Croatia twice and the film is more "Croatian" than "Halima". Two other dark horses: if the Croatians go sentimental, they may want to choose “Flower Square”, about a family targeted by the local mafia. It was the final film of Krsto Papic who just died this past spring....Or there's “A Stranger” (another Bosnian co-production, this time made by a Croatia-based Bosnian Croat), about a Croat unsure of whether to attend the funeral of a dear old Muslim friend. We also may see some new contenders among the winners of this month's Pula Film Festival which concludes July 27, although many winners won't premiere in Croatian cinemas until after the deadline. The most promising look to be village comedy "Handymen" and thriller “Not All About the Money” about a couple who will be killed if they don’t pay a debt in seven days. Unlikely to premiere in time: “Bridge at the End of the World” (war refugees). I don’t particularly expect last year’s abstract Pula Best Picture winner (“Letter to My Dad”) or popular rom-com “Sonja and the Bull” to figure in.

9. EGYPT- "Chaos Disorder" Egypt began submitting films to the Oscars in 1958 but they haven't had any luck so far. Since the Arab Spring, their film industry has been in a state of flux- secular nationalist censorship by the Mubarak government was replaced by pseudo-religious censorship by the Morsi government and after last week's "people power overthrow/military coup d'etat", who knows what will happen? Last year Egypt didn't send a film at all, despite a number of possibilities. Variety speculated that the reason was that the front-runner, “After the Battle” (released 9/28/2012), presented a controversial version of the Arab Spring. I’m unsure if Egypt will return this year but if they do, I’m predicting “Chaos Disorder” which won the Arab Special Jury Prize in Dubai 2012 and which is not overtly political or offensive to anyone. It’s also one of a number of strong new Egyptian films directed by women. “Chaos Disorder” is a love triangle set in a lower-class Egyptian neighborhood, where two local boys fight for the hand of a neighborhood “princess”. Two other films have been prominent on the international circuit this year, though both have received mixed reviews. “Winter of Discontent” (Venice, Cairo, Dubai) takes place in the years leading up to the Arab Spring and has secured domestic and some international distribution but most critics say the film is already outdated. “Coming Forth by Day” (Abu Dhabi, Carthage, FESPACO) is a slow, slice-of-life film (directed by another woman) about 24 hours in the life of a young Cairo woman. If they want something more “mainstream”, the Egyptians may choose “Mosawer Qateel” (“Blood On My Hands”), a commercial mystery-fantasy-thriller about a man trying to solve the murder of his wife with the help of a mysterious camera, or “Asham”, an arty film (by another woman) about the intersecting lives of a number of young adults in Cairo. My prediction for the Top Five: “Chaos Disorder”, “Winter of Discontent”, “Mosawer Qateel”, “Asham” and “Coming Forth by Day”.  

10. GEORGIA- "In Bloom" Georgia has two movies this year that have gotten some international critics talking about a possible “Georgia New Wave”. I think “In Bloom”, winner of several of the main prizes in Hong Kong (and featured in Berlin Forum) is easily the front-runner. “In Bloom” has gotten warmer reviews than the main competition (“A Fold in My Blanket”) for its story of two adolescent girls living a normal life of boyhood crushes and schoolyard dilemmas, juxtaposed against a background of abnormal historical events, namely Georgian independence and the civil war in Abkhazia. “A Fold in My Blanket” was prominently featured in Berlin but most reviews for this “Twin Peaks" redux of strange events in a small town have not been kind. A few upcoming releases could compete if they turn out to be good- “Dzma" is the story of 12- and 16-year old brothers growing up in the troubled 1990s and it has a better chance than sci-fi drama “The Parts” or intriguing Estonian co-production  “Tangerines” about an ethnic Estonian village forced to take sides when ethnic conflict breaks out between rival Abkhaz and Georgian belligerents.

11. GREECE- Official Academy Award Submission- "Boy Eating the Bird's Food" Greece became the first country to announce their Oscar submission in April when they predictably chose “Boy Eating the Bird’s Food”, an independent drama about an impoverished young man living in modern-day Athens. It won Best Picture at the Hellenic Film Awards and the main award for Greek films at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (winning this award used to automatically qualify the film as the Greek Oscar nominee). This surreal, arty film- which features the boy eating his own semen- won’t have much luck in Hollywood. The chief films disappointed by the pick are the probable runner-up “The Daughter” (Berlin 2013, Best Director/Screenplay at the Hellenic Film Awards), about a teenaged girl in who kidnaps a neighbor child for revenge, as well as “What If”, a surreal hit romantic drama about a series of coincidences that lead to the fateful meeting of a man and woman in Athens. They also could have selected “JACE”, a stylish thriller about a 7-year old whose foster family was massacred, or “ACAB”, about a young anarchist woman. “JACE” won many of the tech awards at the Hellenic Film Awards and (though I haven’t seen it) sounds like the best film of the five. Unsurprisingly, all of these films deal to some extent with modern life amidst Greece’s current economic crisis.

12. IRAN- "Restitution" Iran boycotted the Oscars last year, marking the first time ever that I know of in which a country didn’t send a film for exclusively political reasons. The Iranians were clearly divided last year. They issued statements to the press in quick succession indicating first that (1)- they were considering a boycott, (2)- then confirmed that they would send a movie anyway (“A Cube of Sugar”), and then finally (3)- that they would boycott unless AMPAS issued an apology for a Youtube video made by an Egyptian in the United States maligning Islam. The big question is now whether the Iranians will continue their silly boycott, or rejoin the Oscar family. Despite poisonous relations with the US, Iran participated in the Oscars every year between 1997 and 2012, making them one of only seven non-European nations to do so (friendly Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Israel, Japan, Mexico and Taiwan are the others). So, this year the Iranian nominee will depend on two things: (1)- will they participate at all?, (2)- if they do, will they choose a festival favourite like “A Separation”, or a domestic protection that better conforms to Iranian government-sponsored values? With Iran still bitter about "Argo" winning Best Picture and probably also annoyed at dissident director Jafar Panahi’s invitation to AMPAS membership this year, I think Iranian participation is iffy at best, and that the chances of them selecting a popular festival movie is pretty low. If they chose fairly, it would probably be “The Last Step”, a quiet domestic drama starring Leila Hatami (the wife in “A Separation”) as a middle-aged, widowed actress whose deceased husband plays the other lead role. Should they rejoin, I think the Iranians will choose a more blatantly nationalist film, instead of their usual small, intimate family dramas.  The two big winners at the Fajr International Film Festival (the closest Iran has to a national film awards) were “Restitution” (aka “Refund” or "Give Back"), about the Allied occupation of Iran during World War II, and “Rule of Accident”, a family drama about a theatrical troupe of actors. “Rule of Accident” won the International Competition, though it was mostly ignored in the domestic Iranian Competititon (it won Screenplay). The winner there was “Restitution”, which was nominated in nearly every category. “Berlin 7”, an anti-Western film about an Iranian refugee facing anti-Islamic sentiment in Germany may be the sort of anti-Western film they're looking for (though maybe the refugee angle will annoy them?). A few other options including “Painting Pool” (co-winner of the Audience Award in Fajr), about a pair of handicapped parents trying to raise a family, “Darband”, which won Best Director for its social drama of a single woman living in a boarding house, “Parviz”, about a lazy Iranian slacker, and “Sinners”, a film noir murder mystery about a woman murdered after returning from the United States. You can forget Asghar Farhadi’s latest French-language film and any film that has a controversial plotline like “Scandal” (clerics) or “Hush, Girls Don’t Scream” (child sexual abuse) or anything by a director who has pissed off the mullahs (previously selected artistes like Bahman Ghobadi and Jafar Panahi ). I’m going to be surprised if Iran enters (the theme of cinematic seminars at Fajr were "combating negative Western and Zionist influence!), but if they do I predict “Restitution”. My alternates are “Painting Pool” and “The Last Step”.

13. IRAQ- "Bekas" Iraq has little in common with the peaceful Kingdom of Belgium except that both have two distinct, ethnic-based and very separate film industries. In Iraq, it’s clearly the minority Kurdish region that has been producing the best films, with Iraq represented this year at “Arab” film festivals solely through Kurdish-language works. They even got their own sidebar at Karlovy Vary this year! Although both the Arab and Kurdish halves of Iraq have begun dedicating increasing government resources to producing new films, it is the Kurds who have harnessed the input of the large Iraqi Kurdish diaspora and partnerships with the international co-production market. This year, the Iraqi Kurds have been well-received at Tribeca (Norwegian co-production  “Before Snowfall”, about honor killings), Dubai (French co-production “Shirin”, about a pair of star-crossed lovers, which was the opening film in the Iraqi Kurdish capital's newly re-opened cinema in January) and even Cannes (French co-production “My Sweet Pepperland”, about a glum former peshmerga warrior adjusting to civilian life). However, the Iraqi front-runner is  probably Swedish co-production “Bekas”, the feature-length version of short film “Bekas” which won a Student Academy Award in 2011. The film follows two orphaned boys who decide to emigrate to America (which they presume is a “a few miles away”) and who go in search of the comic-book hero to help them. More of a children’s film than an Oscar contender, I’m hopeful they pick the probable runner-up, “Pepperland”, by Hiner Saleem (who represented Armenia once when Iraq was still under Saddam) and starring exiled Iranian actress Golshifteh Farahani. Dark horse: “111 Girls”, a darkly comic drama about a petition by Iranian Kurdish girls to the Iranian leadership (directed by an Iraqi Kurdish couple) to supply them with prospective husbands. Of note: "Before Snowfall" is also one of the chief contenders for Norway.

 

14. ISRAEL- "A Place in Heaven" Israel automatically sends their Best Picture winner at the Ophirs in September (assuming it meets language requirements) as their representative to the Oscars. I predict the five nominees will be “Big Bad Wolves”, a revenge thriller with a dark sense of humor, starring Lior Ashkenazi turning the tables on a child killer, "Fragile", a family drama set in the 1960s, “Hunting Elephants”, co-starring Patrick Stewart as one of a group of elderly jewel thieves planning a big heist,““Inheritance”, the directorial debut of Hiam Abbass, about a Palestinian student who returns to her hometown in the West Bank, “A Place in Heaven” (Karlovy Vary), a complicated and intriguing drama about a race against time to nullify a Faustian bargain, covering forty years of Israeli history. A UK co-production “Zaytoun” starring Stephen Dorff as a marooned Israeli pilot forced to work with a Palestinian refugee to get home will probably nab an Ophir nod if it’s eligible, but it won’t be eligible for the Oscars due to English. I wouldn't be at all surprised if “Not in Tel Aviv”(Locarno 2012), a jet black comedy about a high-school teacher who goes berserk, "Youth" (Berlin), about two brothers from a dysfunctional family, or “She’s Coming Home”, the story of a shy 30-something living at home who becomes involved with a married man, get an Ophir nomination either, but I would be very surprised if they make it to the Oscars. It's a competitive years. A final dark horse is "Mivtza Hamaniya", a historical drama about the Israeli nuclear program (will it be released??) It’s a competitive year!

 

Sadly, a trio of gay-themed films are probably out of luck;  the Israeli Academy seems open to Arab-themed cinema, but not gay cinema (“The Bubble” got three minor Ophir nominations, while “Yossi” got none). “Out in the Dark”, a well-reviewed Israeli “Brokeback Mountain” about a steamy love affair between an Israeli lawyer and a Palestinian student, co-won Best Israeli Film in Haifa, “Snails in the Rain” is about a straight man disturbed by anonymous gay love letters and gay director Eytan Fox has a new musical-comedy “Cupcakes", but none will do well at the Ophirs. Lastly, I don’t think “Dawn”, a drama by a Swiss director, a Scottish screenwriter and an English lead actor, based on an Elie Wiesel story about the creation of Israel, will be eligible. We should get a better idea of what’s going on after the Jerusalem Film Festival concludes this weekend (seven Israeli films are playing), but for now my prediction is victory for “A Place in Heaven".

15. JORDAN- "Line of Sight" Jordan submitted an excellent film just once in 2008 but they seem to have given up on Hollywood despite a slowly growing local industry. This year’s most likely submission is “Line of Sight” about the armed standoff between a housewife and a car thief, told through flashbacks that slowly tell what brought each of them to this particularly dangerous moment in time. The film has the backing of the Royal Film Commission, but if Jordan ignored Berlinale drama “Last Friday” and popular rom-com “When Mona Lisa Smiled” last year, I'm just not sure they'll enter.

 

16. KUWAIT- "Scenario" Kuwait has not sent a film to the Oscars since 1978 and they’re not likely to send anything this year. “Tora Bora” won the top prize at the Gulf Film Fest in Kuwait in May 2012, but it was released domestically in 2011. The only other Kuwaiti film I know about this year is “Scenario”, a thriller about an independent film director who assembles a cast of friends to make a low-budget film which results in a unexpected death.

 

17. LEBANON- "Asfouri" Lebanon's biggest film of the year is the amazing drama “The Attack” by Ziad Doueiri, a protégé of Quentin Tarantino. I saw the film at its DC premiere in May, and it’s a fascinating movie about moral dilemmas and secrets, focusing on a successful Israeli-Arab doctor traumatized by the death of his beloved wife in a suicide bombing- only to learn that she was in fact the bomber. Unfortunately “The Attack” was banned in Lebanon because it was filmed partially in Israel with a partially Israeli cast. This renders the film ineligible (and also violates Lebanese laws regarding treason, which have thankfully not been enforced against M. Doueiri). Lebanon has also called on all Arab countries to ban the film (not everyone has signed on….Morocco, which doesn’t recognize Israel, awarded the film the Grand Prize at the Marrakech Film Festival, and it also played in Dubai). I don’t think Lebanon will enter the contest this year (they didn’t last year, even though they had the popular “Heels of War”) although they do have a few eligible films. The front-runner is “Asfouri”, a drama in Arabic and Armenian, about an apartment building which witnesses numerous stories over the course of Lebanon's 15-year civil war. It got better reviews than “Blind Intersections”, a drama about a series of interlocking stories and characters. If they want to do something more unusual they could send feature-length documentary “The Lebanese Rocket Society” by a pair of previously submitted directors, but I think it’s “Asfouri” or nothing.

18. MACEDONIA- "Balkan Is Not Dead" Macedonia's clear front-runner is “Balkan Is Not Dead”, a period drama set in 1905 about life in Macedonia just before the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Photos from the movie look quite lavish and Macedonia chose a similarly-themed historical drama last year. Ironically, its key competition comes from another historical drama set circa 1905, and focusing on a love “quadrangle” between a Balkan rebel, a local gentleman and a Turkish soldier with a cosmopolitan European woman. This one, “To the Hilt” is directed by one of Macedonia’s most respected directors (Stole Popov) and seems a bit more coarse than "Balkan" (the English-language tagline for the movie is “Fuck lifeif you are not ready to die for it”). It’s also unclear whether it will premiere in time. I give the edge to “Balkan” even if they are both released (Macedonia tends to premiere their nominees in September). Unlikely: “The Piano Room”, a modern-day abstract drama about the various people who visit a particular hotel room. 

19. MOROCCO- "God's Horses" Morocco has had a strong film year, and their Oscar submission will be the winner of a two-way race between two films that have been jointly doing Morocco proud on the film festival circuit (often competing against each other). “God’s Horses” premiered at Cannes 2012 and played at international festivals for over a year before opening in Moroccan and French cinemas in February 2013. “Horses” is a critically acclaimed and very topical drama about how impoverished youth from the slums of Casablanca were recruited and convinced to take part in the terrorist bombings that hit the city in 2003. “Zero” is a stylish (and violent) film noir about an alcoholic cop trying to bust a child prostitution ring.  “God’s Horses” has wowed the international critics, while “Zero” has dazzled the domestic ones. "Zero" won Best Moroccan film (over “Horses” and others) at the Tangier International Film Festival. Both were commercial successes in Morocco (but “Zero” was a bigger hit) and both directors have been selected to represent Morocco before (Ayouch in 1998 and 2000, Lakhmari in 2009). A possible dark horse is all-star funeral dramedy “Rock the Casbah” (co-starring Hiam Abbass of “The Visitor”, Nadine Labaki of “Caramel” and Lubna Azabal of “Incendies”) which will open in September. Movies like “Malak” (about the stigma of being a single mother in Moroccan society), “Road to Kabul” (a hit comedy about four aimless 20-somethings who end up in Afghanistan when they try to illegally emigrate to Europe) and “Miscreants” (a troupe of actors are kidnapped by Islamists) have a slight chance, but are unlikely. The same goes for child abduction drama “Sack of Flour”, by a Belgian-Moroccan director (Morocco made it to the shortlist with “Omar Killed Me”, a European co-production). Like last year, I’m keeping my prediction as “God’s Horses”.

 

20. PALESTINE- "Omar" Palestine has the easiest decision of any of the 104 countries in the competition this year. “Omar” is the first Arabic-language film made by director Hany Abu-Assad since Palestine received its their only Oscar nomination for “Paradise Now” (which is still the only non-Arab country- bar Algeria- ever to be nominated for an Oscar).  Add the fact that it won the Jury Prize in the Un Certain Regard competition at Cannes 2013, and that it's also the first film to be made almost entirely with local Palestinian funds. The Palestinians are sure to choose this drama about the hardships imposed by the Israeli occupation on a pair of lovers in the Gaza Strip.

 

21. ROMANIA- "Child's Pose" Romania finally made it to the Oscar shortlist last year after entering films without any success since 1966. “Beyond the Hills” probably came in seventh place last year (out of 71…the largest field ever), just missing out on Romania’s first Oscar nomination. The Romanian Academy has a pretty easy choice this year- it will certainly be “Child’s Pose”, the winner of the 2013 Golden Bear in Berlin, and a film that bears certain similarities to the Oscar winning “A Separation”. In the film, Luminita Gheorgieu (“Death of Mr. Lazarescu”) plays a wealthy, high-society mother who will stop at nothing to exonerate her (guilty) son, who has just killed a child in a automobile accident. This “moral dilemma” drama has gotten great reviews, won a major film festival and could very possibly finally net Romania their overdue first Oscar nomination. I consider “Child’s Pose” to be a lock, but if you’re looking for alternate choices, look no further than two films by previously submitted directors- “Domestic” is a comedy about an apartment building arguing over the status of a pet dog, and “Rocker” is about a 40-year old ex-hippie, who is taking care of his young son. Less likely is comedy “Chasing Rainbows” (which got a Best Pic nom at the National Gopo Awards). While these are all possible, I don’t think anyone from Romania will be able to dislodge (or even seriously challenge) “Child’s Pose”. 

 

22. RUSSIA- TBD

 

23. SERBIA- "Circles" Serbia probably made a mistake last year by sending well-meaning but overwrought drama “When Day Breaks” instead of super-fun gay-pride comedy (and surprise box-office blockbuster) “The Parade”, which was one of my favorite films of the year. Serbia (controversially) changed its rules last year to specify that film producers had to pay a fee to be considered for the Oscars; in previous years all Serbian releases were evaluated. So, what Serbia selects will depend in part on who ponies up the 300 euros! Half of Serbia’s eligible films seem to rely on the same tropes (the aftermath of 1990s Balkan wars; or three intersecting stories). The probable candidate is “Circles”, a chilling take on “Six Degrees of Separation” by the director of the outstanding “Klopka/The Trap". During the Balkan wars, a Serbian is murdered by thugs when he tries to save a Muslim man, who survives the attack. Years later paths cross again and revenge is in the cards. Golubovic is a master of morality tales and “Circles” has gotten good reviews. The two runner-ups (in case “Circles” is somehow not submitted for consideration) are likely to be: “The Falsifier”, a drama by respected director Goran Markovic (“Tito & Me”) about a merry counterfeiter and dedicated Communist in 1960s Yugoslavia; and “The Withering”, a Karlovy Vary drama about a man who returns from Belgrade to his village to sell his land and move to Europe. Rounding out the Top Five: “The Whirlpool” (the most likely of the films about “intersecting stories”), a drama set in the turbulent 1990s, and “Barbarians”, about the life of Serbians set against the backdrop of the Kosovo wars. “See You in Montevideo”, the sequel to their 2011 football-themed submission, might come into play if it's released in time. My prediction: “Circles” is the one to beat.

 

24. TUNISIA- "Hidden Beauties" Tunisia’s film industry has begun to get back on its feet after the country initiated the Arab Spring in 2011, leaving the country with more serious issues than making movies. Tunisia premiered three new local features at their Carthage International Film Festival, and Tunisian films competed in Abu Dhabi, Cairo, Doha, Dubai and Ouagadougou as well. The front-runner is clearly “Hidden Beauties”, a film about two young women struggling to maintain their independence in a male-dominated society and amidst creeping Islamism in the country after the 2011 democratic revolution. It is by one of Tunisia’s most acclaimed modern directors and it won Best Arab Feature in Abu Dhabi 2012. In 2002 (the last year Tunisia competed at the Oscars) however, Tunisia sent an unknown also-ran instead of a critically acclaimed feminist front-runner (“Satin Rouge”), so if feminism bothers Tunisia’s Academy, they’ll probably send “Kingdom of Ants”, about the more politically correct struggles of the Palestinians. Less likely: 1970s political drama “The Professor” although I’m betting on “Hidden Beauties”. Then again, they haven’t entered since 2002, so maybe they’ll just send nothing!

 

25. TURKEY- "Beyond the Hill" Turkey's pick is notoriously difficult to predict. The Turks have three major film festivals (Anatalya, Istanbul and Ankara) which all have Turkish Film Competitions, but none of the winners of any of these festivals has been selected for the Oscars since 2003 (when the dreadful “Distant” swept all three festivals and got to represent Turkey at the Oscars). That spells bad news for European immigration drama “Your Beauty is Worth Nothing” (which won the 2012 Antalya competition despite being a majority German-Austrian production) and fantasy drama “Thou Gildst the Even”, about a small, dull town where people have magical powers (Winner, Istanbul 2013). I’d hold out a bit more hope for “Beyond the Hill” (Winner of both Istanbul 2012 and Ankara 2013), an arty movie about the theft of a lamb which erupts into a violent blood feud. It  opened in Turkey in December after nearly a year winning awards around the world (including Berlin 2012 and the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards). I consider it to be one of the front-runners. It’s two chief competitors are “Strangers in the House”, a drama about Turkey’s history with long-time rival Greece as seen through the eyes of an 80-year old woman who fled Turkey decades before, and “Watchtower” (Rotterdam/Toronto), a quiet drama (Turkey loves these) about a couple coming together in rural Anatolia.  “The Butterfly’s Dream” had gotten great reviews in Turkey for its story of two poets in the 1940s, and 16^th century period romance “Mahmut & Maryam” looks very pretty but Turkey hasn’t sent a period film to the Oscars since 1999. Other possibilities include: “Cold” (Berlin) about three Russian women living near the Turkish-Georgian border, “The Mountain”, a thriller about two Turkish soldiers trying to survive a terrorist ambush on an isolated mountain, and “Lifelong”, a relationship drama. Highly unlikely: Reha Erdem has been selected before and “Jin” got good reviews, but its controversial Kurdish topic will be enough to knock it out of contention; “Gallipoli”, a big-budget war movie sequel, will confuse those who don't know the history detailed in the first film. Having said that, two of the past four years they’ve chosen a film that was released right before the deadline. None of these movies are jumping out at me, so maybe they’ll do that this year too….This is one of my shakier predictions, but here goes: “Beyond the Hill” represents Turkey, with “The Butterfly’s Dream” in second, and “Watchtower” in third

 

26. UKRAINE- "The Guide" Ukraine rejoined the Oscar race after a three-year absence last year. Although they have no particular front-runner, they’ll likely submit a film if they have something that meets the seven-consecutive-day screening requirements, which is sometimes a problem for them. Five films of note: “Eastalgia”- a drama about cross-cultural love stories in Kyiv, Belgrade and Munich- was the only local Ukrainian film in competition at the country’s Molodist Film Festival in Kyiv;  “Eternal Return”- a drama about a man who returns to his hometown to meet the two women he loves….it's directed by Kira Muratova, and it won Best CIS/Baltic Film at this year’s Russian Oscars (the third time Muratova has won the award);  “The Guide”- a stylish thriller about an American boy and a blind musician in Communist-era Ukraine made by a previously submitted director; “Paradjanov” is the biopic of a famed, abstract Soviet-Armenian filmmaker which has Armenian and Ukrainian co-directors; and “Strong Ivan”, a family-friendly biopic about an early 20^th century circus strongma....it's said to be one of the most expensive Ukrainian films ever made, but I predict it won’t be released in time. Dark horses include “Backstreet Champions”, a football drama about a tournament for the homeless, “Dreams in Plasticine”, a thriller about a young girl who falls in love with her good-looking, 20-something neighbor and “Goodbye Ukraine”, an omnibus of short films. My prediction: “The Guide” pips “Eastalgia” to represent Ukraine.

 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

There are only three small Eastern European republics that have never entered a film in the Oscar race and all of them have potential contenders this year. The most likely to send a film is MONTENEGRO's "The Boys from Marx-Engels Street". Montenegro mulled over sending a film last year, but they felt they didn't have a suitable candidate (just one horror-comedy). "The Boys" is a intriguing drama about two brothers facing a momentous night in both their lives- one will lose his virginity and the other will kill a man. Newly independent KOSOVO has joined the European Film Promotion group, has its own Film Festival and began participating in the Berlin and Cannes Film Markets in 2012. Last year's Kosovar war drama "Agnus Dei" is a take on Oedipus that won some awards locally. Lastly, MOLDOVA is one of only three former Soviet republics that has never entered (the others are the odd Asian dictatorships in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), but they had a film in competition at Karlovy Vary, namely "The Unsaved", about a boy from a small town trying to avoid the life of petty criminality.The Hollywood Reporter called it "solidly made".

From the Middle East, the most likely debutante is "Aseen", the second-ever feature film from the Sultanate of OMAN. This gentle story of a nomadic boy and his camel has played at a lot of regional festivals. SAUDI ARABIA should also make it's debut with the critically acclaimed "Wadjda", but this female-helmed film about a sweet little girl who wants a bicycle isn't eligible for the Oscars since cinemas are banned in Saudi Arabia.

Predictions for the 2014 Academy Award for Best Foreign Film- ASIA

 

It's that time of year again.....

In April, GREECE became the first country to elect their "Best Picture" of the year to enter in the Oscar race for Best Foreign Language Film.

Over the years, 104 different countries have entered the race for an Oscar (92 have entered in the past ten years) and on this blog, we give them all equal treatment whether they sent a single film in the 1970s (like Cote d'Ivoire....they won....) or whether they've entered every year since the category was created in 1956 (like France, who has 12 wins but none since "Indochine" won twenty years ago).

Last year, I saw 34 of the record 71 submissions and I thought the five nominees were all "good". However, I was disappointed that more daring films like "The Patience Stone" (Afghanistan) and "Pieta" (Korea) didn't make the finals. My personal favorites were "Les Intouchables" (France) and "Jaque Mate" (Dominican Republic) though I will confess that both of these were "guilty pleasures" and not necessarily Oscar-worthy films.

This year, I'm dividing the world up into four regions-
I- Asia and the Pacific (26 countries),
II- The Americas + Sub-Saharan Africa (26 countries),
III- Western, Central and Northern Europe (26 countries)
IV- the Middle East (including North Africa) and Eastern Europe (including the Balkans)

I've nearly completed my research this year, but feel free to write and tell me what you think your country will send to the Oscars. Most countries won't select their films until September but I'm moving to Seoul this summer, so I've gotten an early start....There will definitely be films coming out this summer that I've surely missed.

Let's start with the region that Oscar completely ignored last year- Asia. 16 of these countries sent films last year to compete, and I think we'll see 17 this year, with New Zealand and Sri Lanka probably rejoining the competition, and Kyrgyzstan likely bowing out.

COUNTRY MOST LIKELY TO ENTER: Japan and Taiwan haven't missed a competition in more than thirty years.
LEAST LIKELY TO ENTER: Probably Fiji, which I think has nothing eligible.
MOST LIKELY TO GET AN OSCAR NOMINATION: It's a bit early to tell, but I'm betting on Hong Kong!


1. AFGHANISTAN- "Wajma: An Afghan Love Story" Despite continuing violence and instability, Afghanistan has become a semi-regular participant in the Foreign Oscar competition since their 2002 debut. Last year, an Afghan filmmaker received an Oscar nomination for the first time (for “Bukhashi Boys” in the Best Live-Action Short category) and they probably also deserved a Foreign Film nod for the riveting “The Patience Stone”, whose sexual themes would have merited the director a death sentence a decade ago. Despite (or perhaps due to) the country’s misogynistic recent history, the Afghan Academy usually submits stories highlighting the lives of women and girls. This year is no exception. The front-runner is “Wajma: An Afghan Love Story”, which won a Screenwriting Prize at Sundance for its story of a woman who is ostracized by family when she becomes pregnant during a secret engagement. The challenger is “A Man’s Desire for a Fifth Wife”, about the plight of Afghan women suffering under abusive marriages. Marina Golbahari, the 10-year old star of “Osama”, now a beautiful 23-year old woman, has a new movie but I don’t think it will be released in time.

2. AUSTRALIA- "The Rocket" Australia is likely to submit the exotic Lao-language “The Rocket” about a little boy who is believed to be cursed since he was born as a twin. When his extended family learns his secret (the other twin died at birth), he is forced out since they fear he will bring the family misfortune. The boy then is forced to try and find a new home on his own. “The Rocket” won three awards in Berlin (including a Crystal Bear) and three awards at Tribeca (including Best Narrative Feature), and it’s already set to have a 2013 U.S. release (through Kino Lorber). It's a shoo-in to represent the Aussies.

3. BANGLADESH- "Television" Bangladesh rarely has movies that compete at the international level , which is why it was a point of pride that Mostafa Farooki’s comic satire “Television” was selected as the Closing Film at the Pusan International Film Festival, and was cited by many critics as one of the festival's most charming surprises. Farooki’s film is about a remote Bangladeshi hamlet whose headman rules the village as an omnipotent dictator, banning television and other “sinful” influences. Eventually, his worldview is changed by a series of mishaps revolving around his upcoming pilgrimage to Mecca. The film is said to be charming and delightful and has been selected for fests in Dubai and Gotheborg. The only obstacle I foresee is that the film seems to have been produced independently of Bangladesh’s cliquey filmmaking system (almost all Bangladeshi Oscar submissions have been made by the dominant studio, Impress Telefilms). However, Farooki has worked with Impress Telefilms before, so I still think this will be their pick. If the Bangladeshis look elsewhere, I could see them choosing “Pita” (from Impress Telefilms), a more traditional production about the 1971 Liberation War seen from the perspective of a father living in a mixed Muslim-Hindu village during the massacres by Pakistani soldiers. Less likely: “Runaway” (which I predicted last year as runner-up), another well-reviewed independent film which finally premiered in Dhaka in March after a year on the film festival circuit. It’s about a rickshaw driver who helps to reunite street children with their families. My prediction: “Television”

 

 4. BHUTAN- "Thank You, Sir!!" The Bhutanese entered the race once in 1999 with the delightful, Oscar-worthy “The Cup”. Tiny Bhutan does have a domestic film industry and runs its own National Film Awards. This year’s awards (announced in May) split the main awards between three films. “Thank You Sir” won most of the most awards (11), but “Jarim Sarim Yeshey Tshogyel”, about a woman from a dysfunctional family who dreams of becoming Miss Bhutan, won Best Picture while “Poenlop Agay Haap” won the all-important cultural awards. I know that Bhutan won’t send anything, but for the sake of completion I’ll choose the expensive “Thank You Sir”. Also of note, Bhutan’s first and only international director, (monk Khyentse Norbu, "The Cup", "Travellers & Magicians") has a new film out this year (“Vara: The Blessing”) but it’s in English.

5. CAMBODIA- "The Missing Picture" Cambodia returned to the Oscar race last year with labor of love “Lost Loves” and they could very well return this year with documentary “The Missing Picture”. Though documentaries rarely score here, director Rithy Panh won the Un Certain Regard Prize at Cannes 2013- probably the highest honor ever received by a Cambodian film. The France-based Panh, Cambodia’s  most internationally well-known filmmaker and director of Cambodia’s 1994 Oscar submission, narrates this unusual, autobiographical documentary about the death of his family during the 1975-1979 genocide, using clay figures.

 

6. CHINA- "Back to 1942" China's Academy has a dilemma. Their three most critically acclaimed films of the year are all by directors who have annoyed the Communist regime by speaking out against the government’s censorship policies. Jia Zhangke’s “A Touch of Sin” was warmly received at Cannes 2013 (with a Best Screenplay Award) but Zhang started his career as an underground filmmaker. In fact, Zhang has said publicly that he has stopped production on several past films rather than conform to the whims of the government censors. “A Touch of Sin” was approved for release in China, but it’s indictment of social problems in modern-day China  (prostitution, the wealth gap, government cover-ups) would make it an odd choice. Lou Ye’s “Mystery” played at Cannes 2012 and won Best Picture at the Asian Film Awards, but the film has divided the critics and Lou was banned from making films twice by the Chinese authorities for making movies (“Suzhou River” and “Summer Palace”) without government approval. His latest ban has expired but “Mystery” still hasn’t been released domestically. Feng Xiaogang is China’s biggest box-office draw, he represented China at the Oscars once before (“Aftershock”) and his hit WWII drama “Back to 1942”, about the outbreak of a wartime famine while fighting Japan, has two Oscar-winning actors in supporting roles (Adrian Brody and Tim Robbins). However, Feng also royally pissed off the Chinese authorities in April by making a speech during a televised award ceremony, noting that “censorship is torment” (it was bleeped out) in China today. Feng also famously said in 2010 that he doesn't care about Oscars and that he made his films for Chinese audiences, not Western ones. And Chuan Lu hasn’t pissed anyone off personally, but his movie has…”The Last Supper” is set in 200BC, but some have claimed it is an allegory for Mao Zedong's gradual seizure of power. That delayed its release from summer to fall, making it eligible this year. Reviews were better overseas than home in China.  What will China do? Well, they could choose an up-and-coming director (though they usually don’t) with a festival favorite like “A Useless Man” (Shanghai Film Festival; set in the 1930s) or either of a pair of films about women trying to make it in the 1990s- box-office hit “So Young” and the more serious “Feng Shui” (Tokyo). They could also (foolishly) select a nationalist dramedy set in the US, namely “American Dreams in China”, though I don’t think they’re dumb enough to do that....Of note, they had the biggest box-office hit in Mainland China history (“Lost in Thailand”) but that won’t matter at Oscar time. My prediction: it’s “Last Supper” vs. “Back to 1942”…it depends how angry they are at Feng Xiaogang. I predict he’ll get it. 

7. FIJI- Nothing eligible??? Tiny Fiji submitted just one film (the first-ever Fijian feature film) in 2005, but most of their involvement in international cinema is as a shooting location. They do have a local film in production called “Unlimited Tamasa”  (in Hindi, the language of 40% of Fijians) which is scheduled to be completed in July but this slapstick comedy-cum-Bollywood-musical about a magic whitening cream is an unlikely Oscar candidate! Anyway, it probably won't premiere until the next Oscar cycle.


8. HONG KONG- "The Grandmaster" Hong Kong is nearly certain to choose Wong Kar-wai’s “The Grandmaster”, which seems to check all the Oscar boxes- it has been praised for deftly balancing artistic and commercial elements, it was made by a renowned auteur director (Wong Kar-wai)  who has made his first box-office hit, it has big international stars (Zhang Ziyi and Tony Leung) and it opened the Berlin Film Festival where it was warmly received. This martial-arts historical drama focuses on Cantonese martial arts master and hero Ip Man (subject of a series of five HK films recently) in China in the 1930s after the first Sino-Japanese War. On top of all that, “The Grandmaster” will have the Weinstein Brothers behind it, since they’ve bought the US rights. I say “The Grandmaster” is in. Hong Kong typically likes to choose genre action films so I suppose “Cold War” (Opening Film in Busan and Best Picture Winner at the HK Film Awards), about a group of renegade cops, or “Drug War” (by four-time selectee Johnnie To, and Best Picture nominee at the Asian Film Awards), about a drug lord forced to work with police to avoid the death penalty, are both going to be considered…but they’ll find it hard to bring down Wong who has, quite unbelievably, only represented Hong Kong in the race once before.  Rounding out the Top Five possibilities in a fairly weak year for Hong Kong cinema overall: melodrama “Bends” (Cannes 2013, Un Certain Regard) and Chow Yun-fat’s big-budget action movie “Monkey King”, which could benefit from an early Oscar qualifying release before its November premiere. Out of luck: “Journey to the West” may be the biggest hit in Hong Kong history, but it won’t be picked here. Prediction: The Grandmaster

9. INDIA- "The Lunchbox"

10. INDONESIA- "Sang Kiai" Indonesia is the third-largest country in the competition (behind India and China) and film output has climbed to about 80 films per year. As usual, the Indonesians don’t have any obvious Oscar nominees but they do have some well-received films so they’ll probably submit something as they have eight of the past ten years. The Indonesians tend to choose pretty historical dramas over arthouse film festival favorites. As I see it, they have five realistic possibilities: “Atambua 39 Degrees Celsius”,a drama about pro-Indonesia refugees escaping from the East Timorese conflict, “Habibie & Ainun”, a unexpected box-office success about the romance of former President Habibie and his wife, “Nine Summers, Ten Autumns”, an autobiographical rags-to-riches drama about a boy who rises above his station, “Sang Kiai”, a religiously tinged drama starring Indonesian grande dame Christine Hakim, about peaceful opposition to Japanese occupation during WWII, and “What They Don’t Talk About When They Talk About Love”, a festival favorite about blind adolescents. “Atambua” and “9 Summers” are by previously submitted directors (the director of “9 Summers” was selected last year”), “Atambua”, “Habibie”and “Sang Kiai” are the sort of historical dramas the Indonesian Academy traditionally fawns over, while “Love” has been seen most widely overseas (including Sundance and Rotterdam). “Sang Kiai” has starpower, while “Habibie”won Favorite Film at this year’s Film Festival Indonesia. It’s a very tight race but I predict the winner will be “Sang Kiai”, which combines patriotism with high production values. Runner-up: Riri Riza’s emotional “Atambua”. Dark horses include “Dream Obama” about a child going to the same school where President Obama studied many years before, “Mursala”, which overcame a lawsuit barring its release and which tells a cultural story about the nation's Batak minority, “Rectoverso”, an omnibus film that represented Indonesia at Cannes Film Market but has gotten middling reviews and “Something In the Way”, which though it competed in Berlin Panorama and Hong Kong, was mostly poorly received for its sexually explicit story of a frustrated taxi driver. Having said all that, Indonesia often has some of its strongest releases in August, so perhaps they’ll choose something I haven’t heard of yet.

11. JAPAN- "Shonen H" Japan always chooses a film out of left-field that nobody expects. They ignore their own Film Awards….except when they don’t (their 2008 and 2010 submissions- which incidentally both made the Oscar shortlist- dominated the Japanese Academy Awards, whereas their films in 2009, 2011 and 2012 netted a grand total of two minor Japanese Academy Award nominations and no wins). Sometimes they choose a commercial film that has no chance at Oscar (“Hula Girls”) and sometimes a film that no one seems to like at all (“Our Homeland”). And when they figure out what Oscar likes, they make sure never to send that kind of film again- they haven’t sent a single costume drama since getting nominated for “The Twilight Samurai” and haven’t sent a single gentle, comedy-drama since winning an Oscar for “Departures”. So, I’m about to give up on trying to predict the Japanese. Though I lived there five years, their Academy is bizarre. Three of their top contenders by three of Japan’s top directors won’t premiere until the fall, meaning they’ll be strong contenders next year (Hirokazu Koreeda’s  Cannes drama “Like Father, Like Son”, Takashi Koizumi’s war movie “Eternal Zero” and Koki Mitani’s all-star period piece “Kiyosu Kaigi”) but they'll all be eligible next year. I see seven contenders  (in alphabetical order): “Chorus of Angels”, a mystery-drama about a widowed music teacher (played by Japan’s Meryl Streep) who returns to her small Hokkaido town to meet with six ex-students, Shion Sono’s “Land of Hope”, the best-received of a slew of post-tsunami dramas,  Ryoichi Kimizuka’s “Reunion”, a tender story about a coroner dealing with the bodies of tsunami victims in a makeshift morgue, Yasuo Furuhata’s “Shonen H”, a coming-of-age story about a young boy growing up against the outbreak of World War II, Masayuki Suo’s “Terminal Trust”, about a woman dealing with terminally ill people who choose to end their lives, “Under the Nagasaki Sky”, a drama about modern-day Japanese dealing with death and religion, and “Unforgiven”, starring Oscar-nominee Ken Watanabe in a samurai-era remake of Clint Eastwood’s Best Picture winner. Four of the seven (“Reunion”, “Shonen H”, “Trust” and “Unforgiven”) are by previously submitted directors and Sono is an up-and-coming horror director who may be rewarded for a foray into more serious territory. As I’ve said the Japanese Academy is notoriously bizarre, so I’ll thrown in a few second-tier dark horses, namely: “Beyond the Vigil”, about a man who wreaks havoc when he contacts his comatose wife’s lovers,  “Millennial Rapture”, an overlong, overwrought film that probably wouldn’t be considered if it weren’t the final film made by the late Koji Wakamatsu, hilarious, super-fun comedy “Tug of War” about a misfit women’s team trying to save their factory jobs and “The Wind Rises”, the latest anime from Hayao Miyazaki. I wouldn’t hold much hope out for Takeshi Kitano’s “Outrage Beyond”….Though the film has been the most widely seen Japanese film at festivals this year, it’s a violent sequel and the Academy has never liked Kitano much. The same may go for Yoji Yamada’s “Tokyo Family”….Though Yamada is a beloved Japanese director and Oscar nominee, this remake of the classic “Tokyo Story” has gotten poisonous reviews overseas. Will the fact that “Unforgiven” is a remake of a US classic help or hurt it? Will 79-year old Furuhata’s age help him to be selected? (It didn’t last year when I predicted “Anata e”) I’m predicting that it will, and that Japan will want a more authentically Japanese story than “Unforgiven”. My prediction: “Shonen H”, with “Chorus of Angels” in second, “Reunion” in third, “Unforgiven” in a very close fourth, and “Nagasaki Sky” rounding out the Top Five. I’d love it if “Tug-of-War” makes it, but that’s asking a bit much.

12. KAZAKHSTAN- "Student" Kazakhstan has about 10 eligible films this year, and the front-runners are a pair of dramas that have quietly been building up a reputation for themselves on the international film festival circuit, namely “The Student” (Cannes  Un Certain Regard 2012) and “Harmony Lessons” (Berlin 2013). “The Student” is a re-telling of Dostoevsky’s “Crime and Punishment” set in modern-day Almaty, while “Harmony Lessons” focuses on the increasingly global problem of high-school bullying and, more specifically, the victim's subsequent desire for revenge. The Kazakhs usually like to send flashier films to the Oscars but this year the bigger-budget movies like “Sword of Victory” (about a modern-day kid who helps a medieval army win a war with the help of a magical sword) or all-star romantic musical “When A Dream Comes True” look either too silly (“Sword”) or too lightweight (“Dream”). These two festival favorites will compete alongside “The Old Man and the Steppe”, which hasn’t been seen much outside of Kazakhstan but which is a companion piece to the remarkable “Kelin” which impressed Oscar voters enough to make it to the shortlist (and a probable 8^th place) in 2009-2010. The filmmaking in “The Old Man” looks rather old-fashioned with its tale of an old man and his young apprentice lost in the wild steppes of Kazakhstan, based loosely on Hemingway’s “The Old Man and the Sea”. My prediction: the tight three-way race finds “The Student” in first place, “The Old Man” in second, and “Harmony Lessons” in third, but all are roughly equally likely. Unlikely but possible: boxing drama “Zhol” and time-travel fantasy “Realtor”.

13. KOREA- "The Face Reader" Poor Korea has tried everything. Every year, they choose a brilliant film and every year they inexplicably fail to make the shortlist. They’ve tried auteurs and festival winners (“Pieta”), they’ve tried commercial successes (“Mother”), they’ve gone funny (“Welcome to Dongmakgol”), cerebral (“Secret Sunshine”), schmaltzy (“A Barefoot Dream”) and pretty (“King and the Clown”). They’ve emulated themes from every Best Foreign Film winner in the past ten years (three movies were about relationships during wartime like “The Counterfeiters”, two were mystery-thrillers like “Secret of their Eyes”, three explored ethics under Communism like “Lives of Others”) and NOTHING EVER WORKS. I am deeply greatly to the Korean Film Council for consistently bringing some of the best films in the world to my attention year after year. Keep trying! Now to this year’s race….Korea usually announces a shortlist of six films or so before electing their final nominee. This year’s I predict the six most likely films on the list will be “The Face Reader”, “Jiseul”, “Miracle in Cell No. 7”, “Moebius”, “My Paparotti” and “Nobody’s Daughter Hae-won”. Depending on the size of the list, you might also see a torture drama by a previously submitted director (“National Security”), a gay-themed festival favorite (“White Night”), a fantasy-melodrama about the friends of a girl killed in n accident (“Dear Dolphin”), a crime thriller (“New World”), a drama about the daughter of a prostitute (“Holly”) or a popular fantasy drama (“A Werewolf Boy”), but I think these are all destined to be also-rans. As for the six top contenders, Korea is one of those countries that really tries (unsuccessfully) to get into the head of the Academy voters. That means that the bizarre box-office hit “Miracle in Cell No. 7”, about a mentally challenged man falsely convicted of rape and murder and his daughter’s efforts to set him free, will be out first. If you think it sounds Oscary, you should know it’s actually a raucous comedy. Next to fall will be “Jiseul”, a low-budget B&W drama about the real-life massacre of innocent civilians in the 1950s who were suspected of being North Korean sympathizers. If selected, “Moebius” would be auteur Kim Ki-duk’s third try at an Oscar. He just cut 80 seconds (under extreme protest) to get the Korean censors to approve the film (they objected to scenes of graphic incest) for its September (Oscar qualifying?) release. But Oscar is unlikely to enjoy incest either, and the Korean Film Council is clearly wary of the film, plus Kim was selected last year. “My Paparotti”, sounds like it was made for Oscar- a music teacher whose opera career was cut short due to illness helps reform a violent gang member and grooms him to explore his God-given talent for music. Oscar would give it heaps of awards were it to star Sandra Bullock, but I just don’t think it’s a “big” enough film to succeed here. That leaves us with period piece “The Face Reader” and “Nobody’s Daughter Hae-won”, which competed in Berlin. In the end, I think the beautiful Chosun Dynasty-era sets and costumes and palace intrigue of “The Face Reader” will win out against the more subtle charms of the quiet festival drama about a woman involved in an affair with a married man. I’m feeling confident about “The Face Reader”.

14. KYRGYZSTAN- "Salam, New York" Kyrgyzstan's small film industry held its first National Film Awards in May, with “Princess Nasik”, a drama about a little girl with an active fantasy life beating out last year’s Oscar submission “Empty Home”. I would predict “Princess” for this year except that it appears it was released a few weeks before the deadline, sadly making it ineligible. Kyrgyzstan has been seeing a film renaissance in the past year, although most of this has been in short film production. The biggest film ever made in Kyrgyzstan is going to be “Kurmanjan Datka: Queen of the Mountains”, a biopic of a Kyrgyz noblewoman who helped unite Kyrgyz tribes to fight the Russian Empire in the 19^th century. It has the support of the Ministry f Culture. However, with “Princess” released too early and with “Kurmanjan” coming out too late (early 2014...count on it representing Kyrgyzstan next year....), Kyrgyzstan doesn’t have much left to choose from. Out of the possible contenders, I think “Salam, New York”, a comedy about a Kyrgyz immigrant trying to make it big in New York City, has the edge over “Mystery of Inheritance”, about a rich man who forces his six children to solve a series of puzzles and riddles in order to collect their inheritance. 

 15. MALAYSIA- "Kil" Malaysia rejoined the Oscar race with Shakespearean family drama “Bunohan” last year after a seven-year absence. All the Best Picture nominees at the Malaysian Film Festival film awards this year (including the Best Picture winner, “Bunohan”) were eligible last year.  The Malaysians don’t have an obvious candidate and may sit out again, but they do have a few options: “Juvana” is the feature film sequel to a television series about a group of older teens serving jail time in juvenile hall. The sequel follows one of the boys after his release, and it was a critical and financial success.  “Kil” is a black comedy-thriller about a suicidal man who makes a deal with a mysterious secret organization to help him end his life....His desperate attempts to undo the deal when he falls in love and changes his mind make up the action of the film. “The New Village” is a Chinese-language historical drama about the relocation of suspected Communists to so-called “new villages” in the 1950s, although I’m very skeptical the race-conscious Malaysians will choose a Chinese film to represent the country, no matter how good it is. The biggest Malaysian movie of the year, “Vikingdom”, is in English and thus not eligible. My prediction: “Kil” or nothing.

 

16. MONGOLIA- "Queen Anu" Mongolia recently held its third annual Film Awards on May 16. Though they don’t award a “Best Picture” award, historical drama “Aravt: The Ten Soldiers of Genghis Khan” won the most awards. The film, which was screened in the UK, was released too early in Ulaanbaatar to rep Mongolia at this year’s Oscars, which is a shame. The other two Mongolian films that split most of the major awards are eligible (“Queen Anu” and Korean co-production “Soar Up”) and the trailers for both films are really gorgeous…they look like something from China or Japan rather than from a developing country. If they want to go quirky, they could also send the most popular Mongolian film on the international circuit this year, namely “Mongolian Bling”, about the country’s up-and-coming hip-hop music industry. Less likely: “Scent of Water”, about a stranded Westerner rescued by some adorable children. Mongolia rarely enters the race but there’s a slight chance they’ll send box-office hit 17^th-century costume drama “Queen Anu”. Check out the trailer here. Looks pretty cool....

17. NEPAL- "Uma" Nepal hasn’t sent a movie since 2006 and they reportedly don’t have an official Oscar selection committee due to internal bureaucratic squabbles. That’s a shame because they had a wonderful movie to send last year (“Highway”) which was one of my favorite movies from last year’s DC International Film Festival. If the Nepalis can get their act together, I think they’ll send “Uma”, a thriller-cum-family-drama about a family torn apart by the Maoist insurgency and civil war in the 1990s, with different family members taking opposing sides. Director Tsering Rhitar Sherpa repped Nepal in the 2000 Oscar race, so he may know how to get the authorities to fill out the paperwork. Two of the Best Picture nominees from Nepal’s 2013 Film Awards are eligible- “Ke Ma Timro Sathi Banna Sakchhu” and “Rhythm”- but these both look like ordinary Bollywood musicals. “Rhythm” screened in Australia, so I suppose it has a better shot than “Ke Ma”. Prediction: “Uma”.

 18. NEW ZEALAND- "White Lies" New Zealand sent a Samoan-language film as their first-ever Oscar entry in 2011 and they are almost certain to enter for the second time with “White Lies”, one of the first-ever feature films filmed primarily in the indigenous Maori language of New Zealand (80%). The film, made by the producer of the Oscar-nominated “Whale Rider” is a beautiful period drama about a Maori medicine woman whose traditional medicine is banned by the white authorities, and what happens when she is asked to use her skills to help hide the secret of an upper-class white woman. Count on it to rep New Zealand on the Oscar longlist, unless the Kiwis object to the director being of Mexican nationality (she lives in Auckland). I'm pretty confident they'll send it in.  

 

19. PAKISTAN- "Ishq Khuda". Pakistan last submitted a film a few weeks before President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963. The beleaguered “Lollywood” film industry has been hurt by domestic  security concerns, a lack of quality filmmaking as well as competition from Bollywood (a few Indian releases are allowed in Pakistani cinemas each year, and the rest are available via pirated DVDs), not to mention Hollywood. Last year was a particular bad year for Pakistani releases, although Pakistan is planning a big blitz of domestic releases in July for the Eid holiday. If they choose to return after a 50-year absence, they are most likely to enter the much-hyped Punjabi-language “romantic, spiritual” musical “Ishq Khuda”, which premiered at the Toronto Punjabi Film Festival in May and has some Indian input. It should beat out the competition from political drama “Chambaili: Fragrance of Freedom”. 

 

20. THE PHILIPPINES- "On the Job" The Philippines probably came their closest ever to an Oscar nomination last year, though Toronto fave “Bwakaw” did not end up making the cut. The Pinoys have quite a lot of festival films to choose from this year (they had three films at Cannes) though I’m not sure many of these gritty, low-budget and often divisive efforts have the gravitas to make it to the Final Nine. Confusing things further is that it’s hard to find the release dates for Filipino independent films (which is what they’ve sent five of the past six years) and the fact that they Pinoys tend to release many of their contenders in late summer so as I write this entry (in late June) it’s possible there are films that will come out of nowhere (like last year’s “Bwakaw”). Here are my Top Five predictions: (1)- “Breakaway” (Pusan) is a thriller-drama about the abduction of a child, (2)- “El Presidente” is not an independent film but it an expensive historical one about the Philippines’ first President….it swept most of the Philippines’ countless end-of-year Film Awards (the FAP Awards, the FAMAS Awards, the Star Awards and finished in 2^nd place in the Metro Manila Film Festival) and was praised by the government, (3)-Gil Portes’ “The Liars”, about a baseball team for impoverished youth, (4)-“On the Job” (Cannes) is a gritty crime thriller about two hit men (including a juvenile) that played in Cannes Director’s Fortnight and (5)- Brillante Mendoza’s “Thy Womb” (Berlin) has played at more than a dozen festivals including Venice and Toronto for its story of an infertile woman trying to find a surrogate for she and her husband to have a child. But there are plenty of other possibilities, including “Apparition”, about cloistered nuns living under the Marcos regime, “Dance of the Steel Bars”, a based-on-a-true-story prison dance drama, “Love and Death”, a 16^th century historical drama about Spanish colonization, or any of prolific Adolfo Alix Jr.’s four new films this year (“Mater Dolorosa, “Death March”, “Wildlife” or “Porno”…Alix repped the Philippines in 2007). My prediction:  the Philippine Academy has never cared much for Brillante Mendoza films, so I’m debating between “Breakaway” and “On the Job”….Let’s say “On the Job” for now. The winners at Cinemalaya 2013 may offer more of a clue. For more on Philippines advances into global independent cinema see here.

 

21. SINGAPORE- "Ilo Ilo" Singapore‘s local films have done great at the box-office this past year, with “Ah Boys to Men” (released in November) and “Ah Boys to Men 2” (released in January) beating all box-office records for local films in Singapore history. These two English-language comedies about army life won’t compete for an Oscar, but they do show the popularity of local stories in multi-lingual Singapore. This year, Singapore also won its first feature-film award at Cannes for “Ilo Ilo” (Camera d’Or for Best First Feature), a film about the relationship between a Filipina nanny, her 10-year old Chinese-Singaporean charge, and the boy’s jealous mother, envious of their warming relationship, all set against the background of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. 23-year old director Anthony Chen is a shoo-in to represent Singapore….if the movie qualifies. That's a big if....Like the streets of Singapore, “Ilo Ilo” is in a combination of English and Chinese and is not certain to hit the 50% mark to qualify as a Foreign Language Film. It also has no local release date yet. If “Ilo Ilo” doesn’t qualify, Singapore will likely go with “That Girl in Pinafore (A Singapore Love Story)”, a charming musical teen romance focused on the local Chinese folk music industry in 1992. I believe three other films are eligible- local comedy “Taxi Taxi!”, local horror film “Ghost Child” and violent sexual thriller “Hotel de Sade”- but they won’t figure in the equation. For now, I’m predicting “Ilo Ilo”.

22. SRI LANKA- "Sri Siddhartha Gautama" Sri Lanka's most likely submission this year is clearly Chandran Rutnam’s lavish biography of Lord Buddha, “Sri Siddartha Gautama”, an expensive biopic of the founder of Buddhism. Although reviews have been mixed, the Sri Lankans generally seem proud of the film, and Rutnam was the director of Sri Lanka’s most recent submission in 2009. “Thanha Rathi Ranga”, about the journey of three friends to a region devastated by the recently ended civil war, has gotten somewhat better reviews, but doesn’t have the scale or hype of Buddha’s life story. The arthouse “August Drizzle”, about a female mortician, has gotten film festival play (the others have not), but reviews have been poor since it finally opened domestically in Spring 2013. Prediction: “Siddharta”

23. TAIWAN- "Ripples of Desire" Taiwan has a pretty modest record at the Oscars once you subtract three-time Oscar winner Ang Lee from the equation. The two most hotly anticipated Taiwanese films- Hou Hsien-hou’s martial arts epic “The Assassin” and Wei Te-sheng’s expensive baseball drama “Kano” won’t be released until next year’s race (when Taiwan will have a hard decision!) so there aren’t many strong possibilities. Taiwan is really unclear this year as they have a half-dozen middle-of-the-road titles with no standouts.  My prediction is expensive period drama “Ripples of Desire” just because it’s “big” (their surprise shortlist spot in 2012 was for a big-budget period film) and I can’t figure out which of their other quiet dramas and dramedies they’d otherwise choose. Directed by Zero Chou, famous for her lesbian-themed films, “Ripples of Desire” is about two twin sisters living amidst 17^th century pirates, leprosy and political intrigue. In second place, I’ll guess drama “Together” about a 17-year old boy from a dysfunctional family and his efforts to  fix the problems around him. In third: “Forever Love”, a nostalgic romantic comedy set primarily in the 1960s about a boy visiting his 70-year grandfather who used to work in the Taiwan film industry. Finishing out the Top Five: “Soul”, a thriller (set to open the Taipei Film Festival) about a man who may be a victim of demonic possession, and “To My Dear Granny”, an auto-biographical film about a boy’s relationship with his grandmother. Less likely but still possible in a weak year: youth drama “Triangle Land”, baseball flick “Faithland”, omnibus film “Taipei Factory”, comedy “Will You Still Love Me?” (Tribeca) and kung-fu musical “The Rooftop”.

24. TAJIKISTAN- "Waiting for the Sea" Tajikistan's impoverished film industry hasn’t sent a film to the Oscars since 2005’s delightfully quirky “Sex & Philosophy”. This year, the Tajiks have been represented at several film festivals by “Telegram”, a drama about an actor who returns to his village for his mother’s funeral. At Tajikistan’s local Didor Film Festival, there was also one other Tajik feature- “The Wheel”.  However, I’m going to predict a possible Tajik return with “Waiting for the Sea”, a surreal drama by Bakhtiar Khodoijnazarov who directed Tajikistan’s initial Oscar submission “Luna Papa” in 1999. “Waiting for the Sea” is about a fishing village that is relocated to the desert by a freak storm, and although Tajik input was minimal (The director is Tajik, but the film was co-produced by production companies from six other countries), Khodoijnazarov is arguably the country’s most prominent director so they may try sending it in. For an interesting interview on the current state of Tajikistan’s beleaguered film industry (with “Telegram”’s director), see here.

25. THAILAND- "King Naresuan Part 5" The Kingdom of Thailand has had the biggest-ever box-office hit in their national history (horror-comedy-fairytale “Pee Mak”, which has actually gotten surprisingly positive reviews) but they have been pretty weak when it comes to films that could potentially compete for an Oscar. The Thai Academy typically likes to choose films that positively showcase Thai culture. This year the national censors have been pretty uppity meaning that two long-awaited contenders have been banned (“Fatherland” about the Muslim-Buddhist conflict in Southern Thailand starring Ananda Everingham and “Shakespeare Must Die”, a drama about political intrigues amidst the Thai government, unofficially based on exiled PM Thaksin). Others that feature controversial subjects likely won’t be picked either (political history documentary “Paradoxocracy” by four-time Oscar director Pen-ek Ratanaruang, and indie darling “Karaoke Girl”, about prostitution). The biggest film of the year- the fifth and concluding chapter in the big-budget historical epic "King Naresuan" series-has no release date, while the biggest box-office hit is a horror-comedy about ghosts. Every contender seems somewhat unlikely: “Grean Fictions” is by a previously submitted director but it’s a lighthearted teen comedy; two eligible Best Picture nominees from this year’s Thai Oscars (the Suphannahongsa Awards) seem unlikely- “Yak: The Giant King”, a computer animated film, and “Countdown”, a NYC-set horror film whose trailer features a Jesus Christ figure/pot dealer breaking a Thai girl's finger- both seem limited by their genre. “Koo Kam” sounds perfect- it’s a WWII romance set during the Japanese occupation about a love triangle between a Thai man and woman, and an influential Japanese captain- but reviews were positively poisonous. So, with so many contenders disqualifying themselves, the Thai may have to look beyond the obvious choices- “Tamruad Peun Hode” (literally translated "Tough Gun Cops") is a social drama by the son of Thailand’s most acclaimed director, though there’s little info about it on line, “Tang Wong” is a youth-themed comedy that was warmly received in Berlin’s youth section, and “Together” was an also-ran at the Thai Oscars, but stars the daughter of His Majesty the King of Thailand. My prediction: “Naresuan 5” gets the Thai nod if they release it before September 30 (the Thai are reportedly choosing an auspicious date and may wait until the King's birthday in December), with the Top Four runner-ups in the following order: “Tamruad Peun Hode”, “Together”, “Koo Kam” and “Tang Wong”.

26. VIETNAM- "Losing Way" Vietnam has one of the most difficult races to predict this year. Communist Vietnam prefers to send conservative, patriotic and/or historical films that showcase Vietnam’s rich history and especially their valiant efforts to fight off foreign aggressors, whether that be during medieval times (2011), the French Colonial era (2005 and 2007) or the Vietnam War (2009 and 2012). They had an excellent candidate last year- the privately funded, action-packed hit historical drama “Blood Letter”, winner of this year’s Golden Kite Award for Best Picture- but they selected a poorly received jingoistic Vietnam War film from the National Film Studio instead. This year, film violence and government censorship has become a major issue ever since a hotly awaited film by one of the country’s most popular directors (Vietnam-born, US-raised Charlie Nguyen and his “Gangs of Chinatown”) was banned by the censors for excessive violence. The two biggest films from the National Film Studio this year- “Hot Sand” (Cat Nong) and “Passion” (Dam Me) represented Vietnam at the Hanoi International Film Festival, but they were both panned by critics and won nothing at the Golden Kite Awards despite their official seal of approval. Two other Vietnamese films have seen a fair bit of international play but both of them are privately funded and deal with controversial issues that may make the Vietnamese authorities squeaming about selecting them. “In the Name of Love” played in Toronto and is made by a previously-submitted director, but this story of a woman who secretly has an extramarital affair to have a child with her infertile husband is said to start off well but descend into maudlin melodrama. “Scandal” has gotten better reviews (it won the Critics Award at the Golden Kites over “Blood Letter”, which won nearly everything else) but it focuses on the scandals and backstage dramas of Vietnam’s film industry and media- once again, not something the Vietnamese seem comfortable with. Nor are the two Vietnamese films from the Cannes Film Market very promising- “Once Upon A Time in Vietnam” (the directorial debut of 21 Jump Street alum Dustin Nguyen) and “Race Tracks” (which was also banned for violence before making extensive cuts) are unlikely to be chosen since they are really just action films, while slick thriller “Cold Summer” which may also be seen as too “genre”. One final contender- “Losing Way” (a.k.a. “Lost” or Lac Loi) was produced by a national film studio and did well at the Golden Kites (finishing second place) but it hasn’t been released yet. A premiere is scheduled for September, just before the Oscar cut-off date but Vietnamese films often have trouble meeting the screening criteria so that’s cutting it close. This is one race I’m really curious about. However, I'm predicting the Vietnamese send this family drama ("Losing Way") about the life of a woman from a rural area (and directed by a rare female director), with “Scandal” in second. Or they may choose to avoid controversy entirely and not submit anything at all.  

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

The most likely debut from Asia is "A Guerra da Beatriz" the first-ever feature film from tiny, impoverished TIMOR-LESTE. "Beatriz" is a retelling of Martin Guerre about a woman's loyalty to her lover during the Indonesian occupation that killed one-third of the tiny enclave's population. Also making their first-ever film is the tiny oil-rich Islamic kingdom of BRUNEI, which produced romantic comedy "Ada Apa Dengan Rina". While it's not an Oscary sort of film, one of the advantages of being a small country is that they can send it in anyway. The MARSHALL ISLANDS (pop: 70,000) have also just produced their first-feature film, "The Sound of Crickets at Night", but unfortunately it was released right before the deadline leaving them out of the race.

Other unlikely possibities: BURMA is opening up to the world and could send human trafficking drama "Kayan Beauty", while NORTH KOREA is closing itself up to the world even more but still found time to make a co-production with their Southern neighbors- "The Other Side of the Mountain" is about the forbidden love between a North Korean nurse and a South Korean soldier during wartime. LAOS' "Red Scarf" got both a domestic release and a release in neighboring Thailand for its eerie ghost story set in the country's rural heartland.