Well, well, well....All five favorites made it in, but four dark horses did too!
GERMANY's "The White Ribbon" is the most awarded foreign film of the year, winning at Cannes and the Golden Globes....
FRANCE's prison drama "Un Prophete" got even more solid reviews proving that the French really know how to pick a winner in this category....
ARGENTINA's myster-suspense drama "Secret of Her Eyes" hasn't had a single bad word said against it.
ISRAEL, with multi-character drama "Ajami", is going for three nominations in a row with a politically fascinating drama about Jewish-Arab people-to-people relations
NETHERLANDS's "Winter in Wartime" is the only one of the World War II submissions to get through....it's a baity film about a teenaged boy fighting alongside the Resistance
BULGARIA's awkwardly titled charmer "The World is Big and Salvation Lies Around the Corner", about a road trip between an old man and his amnesiac grandson was the likely sixth film chosen by the Larger committee....
The three surprises (and likely choices of the smaller, elite committee) were PERU's Berlin Film Festival winner "The Milk of Sorrow", AUSTRALIA's Aboriginal teen drama "Samson & Delilah" and "Kelin", an obscure drama from KAZAKHSTAN told without dialogue, which is potentially the real Cinderella story of the Awards.
Once again, I'm most disappointed in the snub of the fine Asian films....IRAN's "About Elly" and JAPAN's "Nobody to Watch Over Me" and KOREA's "Mother" were all given short shrift....
The nominations come out tomorrow and it's obvious the favorites are ARGENTINA, FRANCE, GERMANY, ISRAEL, and the NETHERLANDS, but how boring would that selection be? In such an unpredictable category, one of them may be knocked out by the dark horse from BULGARIA. Although they've been sending films since 1971, they're fighting for their first-ever Oscar nomination....
My predictions (in order):
PRETTY MUCH A YES
1. ARGENTINA- "The Secret of Their Eyes"
2. FRANCE- "Un Prophete"
3. GERMANY- "The White Ribbon"
HANGING ON FOR DEAR LIFE
4. ISRAEL- "Ajami" (too confusing? too many plotlines?)
5. BULGARIA- "The World is Big & Salvation Lurks Around the Corner" (too low-budget?)
6. NETHERLANDS- "Winter in Wartime" (too treacly? too "old hat"?)
PRETTY MUCH A NO
7. AUSTRALIA- "Samson & Delilah"....Dreary teen angst...Little dialogue...
8. PERU- "Milk of Sorrow"....Overly arty...Weakest reviews of the nine films...
9. KAZAKHSTAN- "Kelin"....Silent? Kazakh? Too weird.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
FOREIGN FILM SHORTLIST PREDICTIONS
Well, the 9-film Oscar shortlist is scheduled to come out sometime next week....
Remember, first, six films are chosen by the larger Oscar Foreign committee. This older, more conservative body typically chooses safe films, and the six are those with the highest overall scores....Look for family dramas, war dramas and films that don't piss off anyone (lest they risk low scores throwing off their averages).
After that, three more films are chosen by the small, elite committee. Nobody knows exactly how they make their decisions, but look for them to choose big-name films that are more arty, intellectual and awards-laden. The smaller committee is supposed to insure that no cinematic great works are snubbed by the Oscar seniors....
I'm moved up some films with good buzz (Japan, Netherlands, Poland) and moved down some films I previously thought would be major threats (Czech Republic, Russia)
Here are my final predictions for the 2010 Foreign Oscar shortlist. I'm not happy with the list...Way too many dry European historical dramas for my taste....But that's what Oscar likes.
2010 Oscar Shortlist
1. ARGENTINA- "The Secret of Her Eyes" (First Six)
2. FRANCE - "Un Prophete" (First Six)
3. THE NETHERLANDS- "Winter in Wartime" (First Six)
4. ISRAEL- "Ajami" (Elite Committee)
5. GERMANY- "White Ribbon" (Elite Committee)
6. NORWAY- "Max Manus" (First Six)
7. IRAN- "About Elly" (Elite Committee)
8. ITALY- "Baaria" (First Six)
9. SLOVAKIA- "Broken Promise" (First Six)
VERY STRONG CONTENDERS
10. AUSTRIA- "For A Moment, Freedom"
11. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Protektor"
12. JAPAN- "Nobody to Watch Over Me"
13. SOUTH KOREA- "Mother"
14. MEXICO- "El Traspatio" (Big Committee ONLY)
15. POLAND- "Reverse"
16. ROMANIA- "Police, Adjective" (Elite Committee ONLY)
17. CHILE- "Dawson, Isla 10"
18. CANADA- "How I Killed My Mother"
UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
19. BULGARIA- "The World is Big & Salvation Lurks Around the Corner" (Big Committee)
20. AUSTRALIA- "Samson & Delilah" (Small Committee)
21. DENMARK- "Terribly Happy"
22. LUXEMBOURG- "Refractaire" (Big)
23. SPAIN- "The Dancer & the Thief" (Big)
24. CHINA- "Forever Enthralled"
25. GEORGIA- "The Other Bank"
26. SWITZERLAND- "Home" (Small)
27. PERU- "Milk of Sorrow" (Small)
I haven't forgotten FINLAND (which is predicted on thefilmexperience.net, my favorite Oscar site), or perennial powers RUSSIA or SWEDEN.....I don't think they're contenders....
LEAST LIKELY TO GET A NOMINATION:
65. PHILIPPINES- "Grandfather is Dead"
64. ARMENIA- "Autumn of the Magician"
63. VENEZUELA- "Libertador Morales"
62. PUERTO RICO- "Kabo & Platon"
61. BANGLADESH- "Beyond the Circle"
Overly arty films that not everyone loves (Australia, Peru and Romania) can only hope that the elite committee falls for their obscure charms and gives them the "Three Monkeys" slot.
COUNTRY MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE LIST FOR THE FIRST TIME: THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC, which hasn't been nominated since earning its independence in 1993.....South Korea, Romania and Chile are also in the running.....
We'll find out next week and see how many I get right!
Remember, first, six films are chosen by the larger Oscar Foreign committee. This older, more conservative body typically chooses safe films, and the six are those with the highest overall scores....Look for family dramas, war dramas and films that don't piss off anyone (lest they risk low scores throwing off their averages).
After that, three more films are chosen by the small, elite committee. Nobody knows exactly how they make their decisions, but look for them to choose big-name films that are more arty, intellectual and awards-laden. The smaller committee is supposed to insure that no cinematic great works are snubbed by the Oscar seniors....
I'm moved up some films with good buzz (Japan, Netherlands, Poland) and moved down some films I previously thought would be major threats (Czech Republic, Russia)
Here are my final predictions for the 2010 Foreign Oscar shortlist. I'm not happy with the list...Way too many dry European historical dramas for my taste....But that's what Oscar likes.
2010 Oscar Shortlist
1. ARGENTINA- "The Secret of Her Eyes" (First Six)
2. FRANCE - "Un Prophete" (First Six)
3. THE NETHERLANDS- "Winter in Wartime" (First Six)
4. ISRAEL- "Ajami" (Elite Committee)
5. GERMANY- "White Ribbon" (Elite Committee)
6. NORWAY- "Max Manus" (First Six)
7. IRAN- "About Elly" (Elite Committee)
8. ITALY- "Baaria" (First Six)
9. SLOVAKIA- "Broken Promise" (First Six)
VERY STRONG CONTENDERS
10. AUSTRIA- "For A Moment, Freedom"
11. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Protektor"
12. JAPAN- "Nobody to Watch Over Me"
13. SOUTH KOREA- "Mother"
14. MEXICO- "El Traspatio" (Big Committee ONLY)
15. POLAND- "Reverse"
16. ROMANIA- "Police, Adjective" (Elite Committee ONLY)
17. CHILE- "Dawson, Isla 10"
18. CANADA- "How I Killed My Mother"
UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
19. BULGARIA- "The World is Big & Salvation Lurks Around the Corner" (Big Committee)
20. AUSTRALIA- "Samson & Delilah" (Small Committee)
21. DENMARK- "Terribly Happy"
22. LUXEMBOURG- "Refractaire" (Big)
23. SPAIN- "The Dancer & the Thief" (Big)
24. CHINA- "Forever Enthralled"
25. GEORGIA- "The Other Bank"
26. SWITZERLAND- "Home" (Small)
27. PERU- "Milk of Sorrow" (Small)
I haven't forgotten FINLAND (which is predicted on thefilmexperience.net, my favorite Oscar site), or perennial powers RUSSIA or SWEDEN.....I don't think they're contenders....
LEAST LIKELY TO GET A NOMINATION:
65. PHILIPPINES- "Grandfather is Dead"
64. ARMENIA- "Autumn of the Magician"
63. VENEZUELA- "Libertador Morales"
62. PUERTO RICO- "Kabo & Platon"
61. BANGLADESH- "Beyond the Circle"
Overly arty films that not everyone loves (Australia, Peru and Romania) can only hope that the elite committee falls for their obscure charms and gives them the "Three Monkeys" slot.
COUNTRY MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE LIST FOR THE FIRST TIME: THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC, which hasn't been nominated since earning its independence in 1993.....South Korea, Romania and Chile are also in the running.....
We'll find out next week and see how many I get right!
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
OSCAR FOREIGN 2010- WESTERN EUROPE
Last and certainly not least are the Western European countries, whose films tend to dominate the Oscar nominations....though with so many countries competing, their share of the nominations seems to dwindle every year....Last year, they got four of the nine spots on the shortlist, and the year before, only two.
Whereas most of the Asian, South American and Eastern European countries seem to enter films to promote their film industries and to compete alongside the best, most of the European countries enter to win a nomination. Nine of these countries have won the award in the past (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland), four more have racked up multiple nominations (Belgium, Greece, Norway and the UK) and two of the smaller countries (Finland & Iceland) have scored a single nod apiece. Only perennial bridesmaid Portugal and tiny Luxembourg have never scored here.....Luxembourg has a baity film, so we'll see if they can make it this year....
NO CHANCE
17. GREECE- "Slaves in Their Bonds"
16. SWEDEN- "The Involuntary"
15. BELGIUM- "The Misfortunates"
These three mid-size European countries simply do not have realistic contenders this year.....The Belgians have selected a vulgar, crass drama with a wicked sense of humor, called "The Misfortunates". It's about a group of deadbeat, alcoholic brothers helping to raise their 10-year old nephew and it's probably most famous for several scenes of nude biking, which the director and cast humorously re-enacted at the Cannes Film Festival. Reviews haven't been bad, but the rough characters aren't beloved by all.....The Greeks haven't been nominated since the 1978 Oscars, and "Slaves in their Bonds", a period romance about a cash-poor landowner marrying off his daughter to settle his debts, and set on the beautiful island of Corfu, hasn't gotten very good reviews, and Variety confirms it hasn't got a chance here. The Swedes waver between Oscar-friendly and Oscar-unfriendly movies, and this year they've chosen a very divisive one that many people dislike- "The Involuntary". A series of five vignettes that I don't think end up linked together, the stories features odd lensing with characters out of frame(similar to BOLIVIA), and a series of situations (stripping, touching teenagers...straight guys playing a sexual joke on a male friend) that do their best to make the viewer uncomfortable....Some people love the film, but it's definitely too divisive for a nomination here.
TOO MUCH COMPETITION TO BREAK OUT
14. ICELAND- "Reykjavik-Rotterdam"
13. FINLAND- "Letters to Father Jacob"
12. PORTUGAL- "Doomed Love"
11. UNITED KINDGOM- "Afghan Star"
10. SWITZERLAND- "Home"
Kudos to all five of these countries. I think that all five made a smart selection based on what they had this year (though Switzerland would have done better to choose "Marcello, Marcello"), and all five of these films are supposed to be thought-provoking impressive stories. FINLAND has chosen a quiet fable about a surly, convicted murderess who reluctantly becomes the assistant to a blind preacher in rural Finland. ICELAND has chosen an action-comedy-thriller about smugglers. PORTUGAL has chosen a modern redux of "Romeo & Juliet" (actually based on a 19th century novel) about class-crossed lovers. SWITZERLAND has chosen a quirky comedy-drama about a family whose idyllic home becomes a nightmare due to the construction of an interstate highway. THE UNITED KINGDOM made a most surprising decision to send acclaimed an Afghan documentary (directed by a British woman) about Afghanistan's hit version of "American Idol" (Pop Idol).
I think the Oscar committee will enjoy all of these films for different reasons, and I'd love to get the opportunity to swee any of them. However, I doubt any will have the "oomph" to make the shortlist. ICELAND and BRITAIN will be handicapped by their genres..."Reykjavik-Rotterdam" is supposed to be a fun, thrilling film, but not an Oscar winner. "Afghan Star" is moving, but ("Waltz with Bashir" notwithstanding), I don't think a documentary can score here. SWITZERLAND's "Home" has gotten mostly good reviews, but not everyone likes it, and it's probably too weird to make the finals. "Letters from Father Jacob", clocking in at a sparse 74 minutes, is too slight to make the cut....As for poor Portugal, "Doomed Love" is supposed to be much better than their recent run of Oscar disasters....but despite positive word of mouth, there's nothing to make me think it can make the finals....
FACING AN UPHILL BATTLE
9. SPAIN- "The Dancer and the Thief"
8. DENMARK- "Terribly Happy"
7. AUSTRIA- "For a Moment, Freedom"
SPAIN. Not good enough.
DENMARK. Not serious enough.
AUSTRIA. Not "big" enough.
Spain is usually a powerhouse in the category, but this was a bad year for Spanish cinema...."Broken Embraces" wouldn't have been that much of a contender either. "The Dancer and the Thief" is supposed to be a harmless, pleasant enough film.....and American critics have been kinder than European ones, but the film's not well-liked enough for a nomination....Then again, the same director won for "Belle Epoque" (also an average, pleasant film).
Denmark's "Terribly Happy" is a black comedy in the style of the Coen Brothers that has been chosen for a US remake. I think it's just the wrong genre to succeed her.e
Austria's obscure "For A Moment, Freedom" is a well-reviewed film about Iranian refugees trying to reach Europe via Turkey. It's supposed to have a lot of Oscary qualities- bittersweet, emotional, funny, sad....and a similarly themed film won this category for neighboring Switzerland's "Journey of Hope" back in 1990. I don't think it's on a grand-enough scale to make an impact here, but Austria's been on a roll the past two years, so it could surprise....
DARK HORSES FROM THE LOW COUNTRIES
6. LUXEMBOURG- "Refractaire"
5. THE NETHERLANDS- "Winter in Wartime"
Nobody is really talking about these two low-key dramas from the Low Countries, but they have what this committee usually goes for- young people suffering through the indignities of World War II. "Winter in Wartime", about a 16-year old joining the Dutch resistance, was the Netherlands' second choice, but it's probably a better choice than the African drama they originally chose. "Refractaire" tells the world about an interesting part of tiny Luxembourg's World War II history. After Germany occupied the tiny Dutchy, they ordered young men to be conscripted into the German army, forcing many young teens into hiding. "Wartime" could surprise...."Refractaire" may be too small to compete here, but there's so little about it on the Internet that it's difficult to tell.....
REAL THREATS FROM THE EUROPEAN SUPERPOWERS
4. ITALY- "Baaria"
3. GERMANY- "The White Ribbon"
2. FRANCE- "A Prophet"
Three of the four European cinema superpowers stand a good chance at getting on Oscar's shortlist this year. (Spain doesn't). FRANCE is nearly certain to get a place in the next round because it's prison drama, "A Prophet". will appeal to both the large and small committee. The story of a young French-Arab petty criminal becoming a crime lord in prison has gotten great reviews, and France is very savvy at choosing its films....If it doesn't make the Top Six in the large committee (and I think it will), it will almost certainly be snapped up by the elite committee for one of the remaining three slots. Clocking in at nearly three hours, ITALY's "Baaria" is a light-hearted and nostaglic homage to growing up in small-town Sicily by Oscar winner Giuseppe Tornatore. The film has gotten decidely bad reviews in Europe, but American critics have been kinder and Oscar has shortlisted ALL THREE of Tornatore's previous Oscar submissions ("Cinema Paradise" won the award). The sentimental, good-hearted film has a good chance of making the Top Six with the big group....but if not, the elite committee will pass. GERMANY's "The White Ribbon", by auteur Michael Haneke, won the Palme d'Or Cannes Film Festival and is an intelligent, and thought-provoking look at the origins of World War I and World War II. While the film will probably miss out on the Top Six in the bigger committee, the elite committee, seeking to avoid embarrassment, will make sure it makes the list.
LOCK FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. NORWAY- "Max Manus"
First of all, this film is the biggest WWII film on the list, so based on past history, it's in.....It's well known that nothing "turns on" the Foreign Oscar committee than a big World War II film...."Max Manus", the big-scale biography of a leader of the little-known Norwegian resistance who sabotaged German supply lines and ships in occupied Norway, has also garnered very good reviews across the board. So I think it's in. I've seen the film, and I think it's a well-made, well-acted exceptionally AVERAGE film. Sounds like "The Counterfeiters"....It's definitely in, damn it.
With a comination of
Now, the statistics:
Number of countries invited: 18
Number of countries participating: 17
Number of countries disqualified: None.
Number of countries opting out: Only IRELAND, which didn't have any foreign-language features.
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Surprisingly few...Probably five to seven
Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 13. Three films are in French (France, Luxembourg and Switzerland), two in Dutch (Belgium, Netherlands) and somewhat shockingly, two films are mostly in Persian! (Austria and the UK). Also, one each in Danish, Finnish, German, Greek, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Sicilian, Spanish and Swedish. Interestingly enough, the films from Belgium and Denmark are in dialects that make it difficult even for locals to understand.
Highest profile films: Definitely Germany's Cannes winner, "The White Ribbon", followed closely by France's "A Prophet".
Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: NORWAY's WWII drama "Max Manus"
Country with the Least Shot at a Nomination: GREECE's poorly reviewed period melodrama, "Slaves in their Bonds"
Number of Comedies: 3- Italy plus Denmark and Iceland which both selected black comedy-thrillers...Belgium and Switzerland have comedic elements to their stories.
Oscar History: Two past Oscar winners have films competing. Italy's Giuseppe Tornatore won the 1990 Oscar for "Cinema Paradiso", and he was also nominated for "The Starmaker" and shortlisted for "La Sconosciuta". Spain's Fernando Trueba won the 1994 Foreign Oscar for "Belle Epoque". Also, Klaus Härö represented Finland in 2003 and 2005, Michael Haneke (representing Germany this year) represented Austria four times between 1989-2005 and Mario Barroso represented Portugal once before in 2004. 15 out of 17 countries have been nominated before.....Luxembourg and Portugal are both waiting for their first Oscar nods....
Number of Female Directors: Two- Havana Marking (UK) and Ursula Meier (Switzerland)
Familiar Faces: The biggest name is France's Isabelle Huppert, who plays the lead role in Switzerland's "Home". Ricardo Darin (Argentina) and Ariadna Gil (Spain) co-star in Spain's "The Dancer and the Thief", and Monica Bellucci has a small part in Italy's "Baaria"....Ingvar Eggert Sigurðsson, a famous actor in Iceland, co-stars in his sixth Icelandic submission.....Icelandic director Baltasar Kormakur (The Sea) and Norwegian director Petter Naess (Elling) co-star in their respective national submissions.....They may not be household names, but two of my favorite foreign actors- Austria's Susanne Lothar and Swedish-Lebanese actor Fares Fares- co-star in the German and Austrian nominees respectively.
Tough Choices: The biggest snubs were a trio of well-reviewed biopics- "John Rabe", a WWII drama set in China was short-listed by GERMANY, Audrey Tautou's "Coco avant Chanel" which gave "Un Prophete" a run for its money to represent FRANCE, and "Vincere" which was the runner-up to represent ITALY. Also out early was Pedro Almodovar's "Broken Embraces". "Marcello, Marcello" SHOULD HAVE been selected to represent SWITZERLAND, since "Home" is rather divisive.....Other than those, "Dogtooth" was expected to represent GREECE.....BELGIUM could have opted for "Loft", DENMARK for "Deliver Us From Evil", and NETHERLANDS for "The Storm"....Spain and Sweden, two great film-making countries, had unusually weak years, and Iceland had but a single eligible film.....
Controversies and Changes: THE NETHERLANDS kept going back and forth this year....First, they chose "Silent Army", but producers of rival films protested that the film wasn't eligible for a number of reasons, and was a poor choice because it was a bad film. The director of "Silent Army" kvetched that he was hurt by the harsh treatment, Holland Film decided to withdraw the film and reconvene to choose a new film. The committee met again and nominated "Silent Light" a second time. By that time, AMPAS had been asked for an advisory opinion, and it turned out that "Silent Light" was indeed ineligible (too much English dialogues and having been screened in a different version in the Netherlands)....The Netherlands chose "Winter in Wartime" as a replacement, and nobody was particularly happy....Other than that, AUSTRIA was reportedly irked when GERMANY announced that "The White Ribbon" would represent them in late August. Having chosen Michael Haneke films four times before, Austria argued that "The White Ribbon" was theirs to submit. Greece changed their nomination procedures this year, dropping the requirement that the Greek winner at the Thessaloniki Film Festival automatically get the spot.....Internet rumors swore that GREECE was sending "Dogtooth" but these proved false when they announced "Slaves in Their Bonds". SPAIN got a lot of heat for not even placing "Broken Embraces" on their three-film shortlist.
Number of countries I predicted correctly: Woops! Only three- Finland, Italy and Luxembourg, although I also predicted "White Ribbon" for the wrong country (Austria). I came incredibly close to getting Denmark, the Netherlands and Switzerland, which were all tough. The movie I predicted for Iceland didn't premiere, but it will probably get selected next year.
Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: So far, I've only seen "Max Manus", which is fairly good. I'm quite excited to see the engaging British documentary, "Afghan Star". Out of the fiction films, "Reykjavik-Rotterdam" would be my first choice.
Last year's race: I saw the Oscar-nominated film from France, as well as the also-rans from Belgium, Denmark and Iceland. France definitely had the strongest film of the four.
Whereas most of the Asian, South American and Eastern European countries seem to enter films to promote their film industries and to compete alongside the best, most of the European countries enter to win a nomination. Nine of these countries have won the award in the past (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland), four more have racked up multiple nominations (Belgium, Greece, Norway and the UK) and two of the smaller countries (Finland & Iceland) have scored a single nod apiece. Only perennial bridesmaid Portugal and tiny Luxembourg have never scored here.....Luxembourg has a baity film, so we'll see if they can make it this year....
NO CHANCE
17. GREECE- "Slaves in Their Bonds"
16. SWEDEN- "The Involuntary"
15. BELGIUM- "The Misfortunates"
These three mid-size European countries simply do not have realistic contenders this year.....The Belgians have selected a vulgar, crass drama with a wicked sense of humor, called "The Misfortunates". It's about a group of deadbeat, alcoholic brothers helping to raise their 10-year old nephew and it's probably most famous for several scenes of nude biking, which the director and cast humorously re-enacted at the Cannes Film Festival. Reviews haven't been bad, but the rough characters aren't beloved by all.....The Greeks haven't been nominated since the 1978 Oscars, and "Slaves in their Bonds", a period romance about a cash-poor landowner marrying off his daughter to settle his debts, and set on the beautiful island of Corfu, hasn't gotten very good reviews, and Variety confirms it hasn't got a chance here. The Swedes waver between Oscar-friendly and Oscar-unfriendly movies, and this year they've chosen a very divisive one that many people dislike- "The Involuntary". A series of five vignettes that I don't think end up linked together, the stories features odd lensing with characters out of frame(similar to BOLIVIA), and a series of situations (stripping, touching teenagers...straight guys playing a sexual joke on a male friend) that do their best to make the viewer uncomfortable....Some people love the film, but it's definitely too divisive for a nomination here.
TOO MUCH COMPETITION TO BREAK OUT
14. ICELAND- "Reykjavik-Rotterdam"
13. FINLAND- "Letters to Father Jacob"
12. PORTUGAL- "Doomed Love"
11. UNITED KINDGOM- "Afghan Star"
10. SWITZERLAND- "Home"
Kudos to all five of these countries. I think that all five made a smart selection based on what they had this year (though Switzerland would have done better to choose "Marcello, Marcello"), and all five of these films are supposed to be thought-provoking impressive stories. FINLAND has chosen a quiet fable about a surly, convicted murderess who reluctantly becomes the assistant to a blind preacher in rural Finland. ICELAND has chosen an action-comedy-thriller about smugglers. PORTUGAL has chosen a modern redux of "Romeo & Juliet" (actually based on a 19th century novel) about class-crossed lovers. SWITZERLAND has chosen a quirky comedy-drama about a family whose idyllic home becomes a nightmare due to the construction of an interstate highway. THE UNITED KINGDOM made a most surprising decision to send acclaimed an Afghan documentary (directed by a British woman) about Afghanistan's hit version of "American Idol" (Pop Idol).
I think the Oscar committee will enjoy all of these films for different reasons, and I'd love to get the opportunity to swee any of them. However, I doubt any will have the "oomph" to make the shortlist. ICELAND and BRITAIN will be handicapped by their genres..."Reykjavik-Rotterdam" is supposed to be a fun, thrilling film, but not an Oscar winner. "Afghan Star" is moving, but ("Waltz with Bashir" notwithstanding), I don't think a documentary can score here. SWITZERLAND's "Home" has gotten mostly good reviews, but not everyone likes it, and it's probably too weird to make the finals. "Letters from Father Jacob", clocking in at a sparse 74 minutes, is too slight to make the cut....As for poor Portugal, "Doomed Love" is supposed to be much better than their recent run of Oscar disasters....but despite positive word of mouth, there's nothing to make me think it can make the finals....
FACING AN UPHILL BATTLE
9. SPAIN- "The Dancer and the Thief"
8. DENMARK- "Terribly Happy"
7. AUSTRIA- "For a Moment, Freedom"
SPAIN. Not good enough.
DENMARK. Not serious enough.
AUSTRIA. Not "big" enough.
Spain is usually a powerhouse in the category, but this was a bad year for Spanish cinema...."Broken Embraces" wouldn't have been that much of a contender either. "The Dancer and the Thief" is supposed to be a harmless, pleasant enough film.....and American critics have been kinder than European ones, but the film's not well-liked enough for a nomination....Then again, the same director won for "Belle Epoque" (also an average, pleasant film).
Denmark's "Terribly Happy" is a black comedy in the style of the Coen Brothers that has been chosen for a US remake. I think it's just the wrong genre to succeed her.e
Austria's obscure "For A Moment, Freedom" is a well-reviewed film about Iranian refugees trying to reach Europe via Turkey. It's supposed to have a lot of Oscary qualities- bittersweet, emotional, funny, sad....and a similarly themed film won this category for neighboring Switzerland's "Journey of Hope" back in 1990. I don't think it's on a grand-enough scale to make an impact here, but Austria's been on a roll the past two years, so it could surprise....
DARK HORSES FROM THE LOW COUNTRIES
6. LUXEMBOURG- "Refractaire"
5. THE NETHERLANDS- "Winter in Wartime"
Nobody is really talking about these two low-key dramas from the Low Countries, but they have what this committee usually goes for- young people suffering through the indignities of World War II. "Winter in Wartime", about a 16-year old joining the Dutch resistance, was the Netherlands' second choice, but it's probably a better choice than the African drama they originally chose. "Refractaire" tells the world about an interesting part of tiny Luxembourg's World War II history. After Germany occupied the tiny Dutchy, they ordered young men to be conscripted into the German army, forcing many young teens into hiding. "Wartime" could surprise...."Refractaire" may be too small to compete here, but there's so little about it on the Internet that it's difficult to tell.....
REAL THREATS FROM THE EUROPEAN SUPERPOWERS
4. ITALY- "Baaria"
3. GERMANY- "The White Ribbon"
2. FRANCE- "A Prophet"
Three of the four European cinema superpowers stand a good chance at getting on Oscar's shortlist this year. (Spain doesn't). FRANCE is nearly certain to get a place in the next round because it's prison drama, "A Prophet". will appeal to both the large and small committee. The story of a young French-Arab petty criminal becoming a crime lord in prison has gotten great reviews, and France is very savvy at choosing its films....If it doesn't make the Top Six in the large committee (and I think it will), it will almost certainly be snapped up by the elite committee for one of the remaining three slots. Clocking in at nearly three hours, ITALY's "Baaria" is a light-hearted and nostaglic homage to growing up in small-town Sicily by Oscar winner Giuseppe Tornatore. The film has gotten decidely bad reviews in Europe, but American critics have been kinder and Oscar has shortlisted ALL THREE of Tornatore's previous Oscar submissions ("Cinema Paradise" won the award). The sentimental, good-hearted film has a good chance of making the Top Six with the big group....but if not, the elite committee will pass. GERMANY's "The White Ribbon", by auteur Michael Haneke, won the Palme d'Or Cannes Film Festival and is an intelligent, and thought-provoking look at the origins of World War I and World War II. While the film will probably miss out on the Top Six in the bigger committee, the elite committee, seeking to avoid embarrassment, will make sure it makes the list.
LOCK FOR THE SHORTLIST
1. NORWAY- "Max Manus"
First of all, this film is the biggest WWII film on the list, so based on past history, it's in.....It's well known that nothing "turns on" the Foreign Oscar committee than a big World War II film...."Max Manus", the big-scale biography of a leader of the little-known Norwegian resistance who sabotaged German supply lines and ships in occupied Norway, has also garnered very good reviews across the board. So I think it's in. I've seen the film, and I think it's a well-made, well-acted exceptionally AVERAGE film. Sounds like "The Counterfeiters"....It's definitely in, damn it.
With a comination of
Now, the statistics:
Number of countries invited: 18
Number of countries participating: 17
Number of countries disqualified: None.
Number of countries opting out: Only IRELAND, which didn't have any foreign-language features.
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Surprisingly few...Probably five to seven
Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 13. Three films are in French (France, Luxembourg and Switzerland), two in Dutch (Belgium, Netherlands) and somewhat shockingly, two films are mostly in Persian! (Austria and the UK). Also, one each in Danish, Finnish, German, Greek, Icelandic, Norwegian, Portuguese, Sicilian, Spanish and Swedish. Interestingly enough, the films from Belgium and Denmark are in dialects that make it difficult even for locals to understand.
Highest profile films: Definitely Germany's Cannes winner, "The White Ribbon", followed closely by France's "A Prophet".
Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: NORWAY's WWII drama "Max Manus"
Country with the Least Shot at a Nomination: GREECE's poorly reviewed period melodrama, "Slaves in their Bonds"
Number of Comedies: 3- Italy plus Denmark and Iceland which both selected black comedy-thrillers...Belgium and Switzerland have comedic elements to their stories.
Oscar History: Two past Oscar winners have films competing. Italy's Giuseppe Tornatore won the 1990 Oscar for "Cinema Paradiso", and he was also nominated for "The Starmaker" and shortlisted for "La Sconosciuta". Spain's Fernando Trueba won the 1994 Foreign Oscar for "Belle Epoque". Also, Klaus Härö represented Finland in 2003 and 2005, Michael Haneke (representing Germany this year) represented Austria four times between 1989-2005 and Mario Barroso represented Portugal once before in 2004. 15 out of 17 countries have been nominated before.....Luxembourg and Portugal are both waiting for their first Oscar nods....
Number of Female Directors: Two- Havana Marking (UK) and Ursula Meier (Switzerland)
Familiar Faces: The biggest name is France's Isabelle Huppert, who plays the lead role in Switzerland's "Home". Ricardo Darin (Argentina) and Ariadna Gil (Spain) co-star in Spain's "The Dancer and the Thief", and Monica Bellucci has a small part in Italy's "Baaria"....Ingvar Eggert Sigurðsson, a famous actor in Iceland, co-stars in his sixth Icelandic submission.....Icelandic director Baltasar Kormakur (The Sea) and Norwegian director Petter Naess (Elling) co-star in their respective national submissions.....They may not be household names, but two of my favorite foreign actors- Austria's Susanne Lothar and Swedish-Lebanese actor Fares Fares- co-star in the German and Austrian nominees respectively.
Tough Choices: The biggest snubs were a trio of well-reviewed biopics- "John Rabe", a WWII drama set in China was short-listed by GERMANY, Audrey Tautou's "Coco avant Chanel" which gave "Un Prophete" a run for its money to represent FRANCE, and "Vincere" which was the runner-up to represent ITALY. Also out early was Pedro Almodovar's "Broken Embraces". "Marcello, Marcello" SHOULD HAVE been selected to represent SWITZERLAND, since "Home" is rather divisive.....Other than those, "Dogtooth" was expected to represent GREECE.....BELGIUM could have opted for "Loft", DENMARK for "Deliver Us From Evil", and NETHERLANDS for "The Storm"....Spain and Sweden, two great film-making countries, had unusually weak years, and Iceland had but a single eligible film.....
Controversies and Changes: THE NETHERLANDS kept going back and forth this year....First, they chose "Silent Army", but producers of rival films protested that the film wasn't eligible for a number of reasons, and was a poor choice because it was a bad film. The director of "Silent Army" kvetched that he was hurt by the harsh treatment, Holland Film decided to withdraw the film and reconvene to choose a new film. The committee met again and nominated "Silent Light" a second time. By that time, AMPAS had been asked for an advisory opinion, and it turned out that "Silent Light" was indeed ineligible (too much English dialogues and having been screened in a different version in the Netherlands)....The Netherlands chose "Winter in Wartime" as a replacement, and nobody was particularly happy....Other than that, AUSTRIA was reportedly irked when GERMANY announced that "The White Ribbon" would represent them in late August. Having chosen Michael Haneke films four times before, Austria argued that "The White Ribbon" was theirs to submit. Greece changed their nomination procedures this year, dropping the requirement that the Greek winner at the Thessaloniki Film Festival automatically get the spot.....Internet rumors swore that GREECE was sending "Dogtooth" but these proved false when they announced "Slaves in Their Bonds". SPAIN got a lot of heat for not even placing "Broken Embraces" on their three-film shortlist.
Number of countries I predicted correctly: Woops! Only three- Finland, Italy and Luxembourg, although I also predicted "White Ribbon" for the wrong country (Austria). I came incredibly close to getting Denmark, the Netherlands and Switzerland, which were all tough. The movie I predicted for Iceland didn't premiere, but it will probably get selected next year.
Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: So far, I've only seen "Max Manus", which is fairly good. I'm quite excited to see the engaging British documentary, "Afghan Star". Out of the fiction films, "Reykjavik-Rotterdam" would be my first choice.
Last year's race: I saw the Oscar-nominated film from France, as well as the also-rans from Belgium, Denmark and Iceland. France definitely had the strongest film of the four.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
OSCAR FOREIGN FILM 2010- ASIAN SUBMISSIONS
The Asian countries (courtesy of Japan) should be proud to have won the award last year. That was only the second time an Asian film has won the Oscar since the award was created (the other was "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" in 2001). "Departures" may not have been the very Best Foreign Film of 2008, but it was a great film and was definitely the best of the five selected nominees. Most people who complain that the grumpy, grainy, talky and overrated "Waltz with Bashir" should have won the award are probably the same people who haven't seen "Departures". I'm so proud of Japan!
Most of this year's Asian films don't stand any chance at all....but three are major threats....
Here's the countdown:
DIDN'T MAKE IT PAST THE STARTING GATE
17. MONGOLIA- "By the Will of Genghis Khan"
Oscar voters might have had a case of deja vu had they had the chance to watch this film- a lavish biography of the life of Genghis Khan with an international cast and a Russian director....It sounds just like "Mongol", submitted by Kazakhstan in 2007. However, the film did not appear on Oscar's official list, despite reports that Mongolia had selected it to represent them. Filmed mostly in Russia, by a Russian director in a mixture of Russian and a number of other regional languages, with Russian and American money, the film was certainly not a majority-Mongolian production. However, Mongolia and Mongolians were involved and one wonders why AMPAS couldn't be a bit more flexible to give a small filmmaking country a chance to get their name out there. Oh well. I'd be curious to know if AMPAS actually received it and rejected it. There's no news out there.
NO CHANCE
16. PHILIPPINES - "Grandpa is Dead"
15. THAILAND- "Best of Times"
14. BANGLADESH- "Beyond the Circle"
Bangladesh, the Philippines and Thailand have never been nominated for an Oscar, and they will not be nominated this year either....Bangladesh's "Beyond the Circle" tells the story of a naive Hindu musician who moves to the big city to pursue his career....The Philippines chose a broadly acted comedy- "Grandpa is Dead"- about five siblings preparing for the funeral of their beloved father....Thailand chose a romantic comedy-drama about two couples- one young, one old- a stray dog with painted eyebrows and an overall theme of memory. None of these films have gotten particularly good reviews, particularly "Grandpa"....which has so much hysterical screaming and local humor that it will struggle to appeal to anybody on the board. I've also seen the Thai nominee...it's not a bad film but it's too long and (ironically) it's largely forgettable. Bangladeshi films don't have the money or resources to compete in this category, and "Beyond the Circle" hasn't gotten reviews as strong as the same director's "On the Wings of Dreams" which failed to make the cute in the 2007 Foreign Film competition.
However, cheers to all three for competing alongside the heavyweights!
ALSO-RANS
13. SRI LANKA- "The Road from Elephant Pass"
12. INDONESIA- "Jamila and the President"
11. KAZAKHSTAN- "Kelin"
10. HONG KONG- "Prince of Tears"
These four films may well be interesting and worth watching, but none of them have the power to convince anyone that they are the best films of the year and most of them have barely made a blip on the international film circuit.
Indonesia and Sri Lanka are back in the competition (Indonesia took last year off...Sri Lanka last submitted a film in 2003) with topical dramas dealing with ongoing political issues. The Indonesians have chosen a film based on a controversial play ("The Prostitute and the President") about a prostitute who is jailed for murdering a prominent and respected politician. It turns out that the woman has been a victim of human trafficking. Sri Lanka's film, "The Road from Elephant Pass", is set against the backdrop of the country's recently ended civil war, following a senior military man and a young woman trying to cross through enemy territory. There's barely any info on either film on the web, but the trailers don't look like Oscar contenders. Production values are okay but unimpressive and the films both look a little preachy.
Hong Kong and Kazakhstan have been nominated before and their nominees are period dramas that have been seen at major festivals (Hong Kong's premiered in Venice; both were seen at Toronto). However, both have chosen films too divisive to contend for the award. Hong Kong's "Prince of Tears" is a historical drama set in Taiwan during a brutal purge against perceived Communist sympathizers. Despite the baity subject matter, reviews have not been great, and the odd juxtaposition of gay-friendly director Yonfan's pretty boys and serious Cold War politics doesn't sound like it works particularly well. Kazakhstan's "Kelin" is said to be a gorgeous costume drama about a woman married off against her will....It has no dialogue, which I don't think will play very well with the Oscar committee. Although the film looks great, reviews say that the lack of any talking begins to grate in the last half hour. You can count all four out.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY
9. TAIWAN- "No Puedo Vivir Sin Ti"
8. TURKEY- "I Saw the Sun"
7. CHINA- "Forever Enthralled"
6. VIETNAM- "Don't Burn It"
What makes a good film? It's not just a matter of acting and storyline....When "4 Months" missed the Oscar shortlist, a lot of people speculated that even a great film with a low budget and gritty camerawork will not make the cut due to a large contingent of Oscar voters with a technical background, who consider quality production values to be a requirements for an Oscar nominee. They have a point.
Turkey and China have selected beautifully shot films with top-notch production values. Turkey's "I Saw the Sun", is about two Kurdish families forced to leave their village due to war, and their subsequent attempts to adjust to difficult new lives in Istanbul and Norway respectively. China's "Forever Enthralled" is a lavish biopic about one of the premiere stars of Beijing opera, and its director Chen Kaige was nominated for a similarly themed film ("Farewell My Concubine") in 1994.
Taiwan and Vietnam have chosen small-scale dramas based on true stories. Taiwan's independent black-and-white drama "No Puedo Vivir Sin Ti" has no stars and a slow pace, but it's a powerful film about a poor, nearly homeless man whose custody over his beloved daughter (the mother abandoned the family) is threatened by government red tape. It just won Best Picture at the Golden Horse awards. Vietnam's "Don't Burn It" is about a idealistic young female doctor whose life is cut short in 1970, during the Vietnam War. Despite arguably stronger reviews than the Chinese and Turkish films, both films are likely to get lost in the shuffle.
Put these two groups together and you might get an Oscar nominee, but none of these films are on anybody's "Best of the Year" list, and with 65 films in the running, they're basically out of luck. Vietnam's patriotic drama, which won the Audience Award at the Fukuoka Film Festival, over the Iranian favorite "About Elly", has the best chance of breaking out.
DARK HORSE POSSIBILITIES
5. INDIA- "Harishchandrachi Factory"
4. JAPAN- "Nobody to Watch Over Me"
For the first-time since the inauguration of the award in 1956, Japan is the "returning champion". Their film- "Nobody to Watch Over Me" -is pretty obscure (so was last year's "Okuribito")- but it's supposed to be very good. A police officer is assigned to protect a teenager from public reprisals, after her older brother is arrested for a couple of brutal murders. India, whose media obsesses annually over India's lack of Oscar success, has sent another obscure film- "Harishchandrachi Factory". The film is not a Bollywood musical like many of India's past nominees. Instead, the film is a loving retelling of the production of India's first-ever feature film- which eventually led to the world's largest film industry. The film is in the regional Marathi language (spoken in the state around Mumbai's Bollywood). There's not much info on the net, but despite a low budget, the film's subject matter may well be able to charm the selection committee. Japan and India are dark horses, but shouldn't be counted out entirely.
REAL CONTENDERS
3. SOUTH KOREA- "Mother"
2. ISRAEL- "Ajami"
These two crowd-pleasing and suspenseful dramas are both very much in the running for the shortlist. Both countries are trying to make Oscar history in their respective countries- Israel has been nominated for the past two years in a row, and would like to achieve a third consecutive nomination (quite difficult these days with so many countries competing....) for "Ajami", a drama co-directed by an Israeli Jewish and Israeli Arab director, and which is the first Israeli submission primarily in Arabic. "Ajami" is supposed to be great- it's a thriller following a number of intersecting stories in modern-day, multi-ethnic Israel. It beat out the internationally favored "Lebanon" at the Israeli Ophir Awards and stands a good chance at being nominated by either the large or elite committee. "Mother" has gotten more attention, but stands a slightly weaker chance. The film is about a devoted mother trying to prove her mentally disabled son is innocent of a brutal murder. Reviews have been good, but the film has a few too many detractors to make the Top Six in the large committee. Korea has an Oscar curse....Also, despite sending excellent films each and every year, Oscar has yet to reward them with a nomination. Why? No clue. Anyway, "Mother" might very well make the shortlist, but will likely miss out on the Top Five.....Or as always, the unfortunate Koreans may be snubbed again.
GOOD CHANCE AT A NOMINATION
1. IRAN- "About Elly" 
I'm ranking "About Elly" #1 in Asia because they have a strong chance at qualifying through either the larger committee and the elite committee. "Elly" is about a group of eight modern, young Iranians on a beach holiday, and what happens when one girl among the group (Elly) mysteriously vanishes. The film has gotten universally positive reviews, and has managed to win some awards. It's supposed to be accessible and interesting, and already has a US distribution deal. It would be a high-profile choice- artistic, thought-provoking and also topical, and would be only the second film from Iran to ever advance in this competition. I say it's in.
Now, the statistics:
Number of countries that have participated in the past: 31
Number of countries accepted into the competition: 16
Number of countries disqualified: 1- MONGOLIA announced "By the Will of Genghis Khan", which was clearly a majority-Russian production (director, writers, language), but which had minority Mongolian input. I assume it was quietly disqualified.
Number of countries opting out: Eight important ones: AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, KYRGYZSTAN, LEBANON, NEPAL, PALESTINE, SINGAPORE and TAJIKISTAN...The Lebanese (who have been a regular participant recently) and the Palestinians (who had a great film year) were particular surprises. Four other countries have only ever submitted films once apiece (Bhutan, Cambodia, Jordan and Malaysia) and 2 others haven't sent films in 30 years (Kuwait and Pakistan).
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many at all....Three or four.
Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 16. Arabic, Bengali, Farsi, Hakka, Hebrew, Indonesian, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin Chinese, Marathi, Sinhala, Tagalog, Taiwanese, Thai, Turkish and Vietnamese. The movies from Israel and Taiwan are multi-lingual. Interestingly enough, the Indian movie is in Marathi, the Israeli movie is majority Arabic, and the Kazakh movie has no spoken dialogue.
Highest profile films: The most well-known are probably China's "Forever Enthralled", Iran's "About Elly" and Korea's "Mother"
Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: IRAN's "About Elly".
Country with the Least Shot at a Nomination: PHILIPPINES' poorly reviewed "Grandfather is Dead".....Wrong genre, and too much local humor
Number of Comedies: Three- India and the Philippines plus Thailand, which sent a comedy-drama.
Oscar History: China's Chen Kaige was nominated for an Oscar for "Farewell My Concubine", representing British Hong Kong back in 1994. Golam Rabbany Biplob represented Bangladesh in 2007 but didn't get nominated.
Number of Female Directors: Only one- Former Indonesian political prisoner Ratna Sarumpaet.
Familiar Faces: The biggest name cast comes from China's "Forever Enthralled" which costars Leon Lai, Zhang Ziyi and Japan's Masanobu Ando. Christine Hakim, the grande dame of Indonesian cinema, came back from semi-retirement for "Jamila & the President". Iranian actress Golshifteh Farahani co-starred with Russell Crowe in "Body of Lies", and caused a controversy at home by appearing unveiled. 70-year old Kenneth Tsang appears in Hong Kong's "Prince of Tears"; he's a familiar face after appearing in "Anna & the King", "The Replacement Killers", "Rush Hour 2", and a slew of John Woo films.
Tough Choices: CHINA foolishly chose tepid opera drama "Forever Enthralled" over the acclaimed "City of Life and Death" about the rape of Nanking. China doesn't like controversy and "City" was presumably too divisive. ISRAEL's Academy was criticized for choosing "Ajami" over Venice Film Festival winner "Lebanon", but in retrospect this may have been a wise choice (we'll see in January). KAZAKHSTAN might very well have been nominated for acclaimed historical drama "Gift to Stalin", but chose a strange new film in its place. THE PHILIPPINES did not shortlist Brillante Mendoza's films and snubbed favorite "Lola" for an odd gay-interest comedy. HONG KONG ignored their Best Picture winner "Ip Man", while Taiwan turned down aboriginal drama "1895". Sri Lanka flip-flopped its decision, originally announcing "Flowers in the Sky" before switching to "The Road from Elephant Pass".....this meant snubbing crowd-pleasing comedy "Machan" twice (they say they believed it was ineligible due to its Italian director, but the producer and crew were all Sri Lankan).
Controversies: As mentioned earlier, Sri Lanka changed its mind, Mongolia appears to have been disqualified and the Palestinians opted out.....According to press reports, the director of "Lola", a rival film, told press that his film would be repping the Philippines, but this turned out to be a false rumor. Taiwan threatened to withdraw a film subsidy from "Prince of Tears" if it competed at the Oscars for Hong Kong. "About Elly" was almost disqualified from the Fajr Iran Film Festival, but it was reinstated, reportedly due to pressure from President Ahmadinejad who (strangely enough) liked the film.
Number of countries I predicted correctly: 6- China, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Korea and Vietnam. (China and Israel were tough...) I came really close with Japan, having it in second place.
Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've seen the films from Japan (A-), Taiwan (B), Turkey (B), Thailand (C+) and the Philippines (C-). The DVDs from China and Korea are already out so I should see those soon. I'm especially excited to see the nominees from front-runners Iran and Korea.
Last year's race: I saw eleven of the nineteen Asian submissions last year. They range from Below Average (Bangladesh) to Average (Hong Kong, India, Israel, Taiwan and Turkey) to Quite Good (Kazakhstan, Lebanon and Thailand), to two excellent films deserving of Oscar nominations- Japan's Oscar-winning "Departures and Korea's tearjerker North Korean refugee drama- "Crossing".
Most of this year's Asian films don't stand any chance at all....but three are major threats....
Here's the countdown:
DIDN'T MAKE IT PAST THE STARTING GATE
17. MONGOLIA- "By the Will of Genghis Khan"Oscar voters might have had a case of deja vu had they had the chance to watch this film- a lavish biography of the life of Genghis Khan with an international cast and a Russian director....It sounds just like "Mongol", submitted by Kazakhstan in 2007. However, the film did not appear on Oscar's official list, despite reports that Mongolia had selected it to represent them. Filmed mostly in Russia, by a Russian director in a mixture of Russian and a number of other regional languages, with Russian and American money, the film was certainly not a majority-Mongolian production. However, Mongolia and Mongolians were involved and one wonders why AMPAS couldn't be a bit more flexible to give a small filmmaking country a chance to get their name out there. Oh well. I'd be curious to know if AMPAS actually received it and rejected it. There's no news out there.
NO CHANCE
16. PHILIPPINES - "Grandpa is Dead"
15. THAILAND- "Best of Times"
14. BANGLADESH- "Beyond the Circle"
Bangladesh, the Philippines and Thailand have never been nominated for an Oscar, and they will not be nominated this year either....Bangladesh's "Beyond the Circle" tells the story of a naive Hindu musician who moves to the big city to pursue his career....The Philippines chose a broadly acted comedy- "Grandpa is Dead"- about five siblings preparing for the funeral of their beloved father....Thailand chose a romantic comedy-drama about two couples- one young, one old- a stray dog with painted eyebrows and an overall theme of memory. None of these films have gotten particularly good reviews, particularly "Grandpa"....which has so much hysterical screaming and local humor that it will struggle to appeal to anybody on the board. I've also seen the Thai nominee...it's not a bad film but it's too long and (ironically) it's largely forgettable. Bangladeshi films don't have the money or resources to compete in this category, and "Beyond the Circle" hasn't gotten reviews as strong as the same director's "On the Wings of Dreams" which failed to make the cute in the 2007 Foreign Film competition.
However, cheers to all three for competing alongside the heavyweights!
ALSO-RANS
13. SRI LANKA- "The Road from Elephant Pass"
12. INDONESIA- "Jamila and the President"
11. KAZAKHSTAN- "Kelin"
10. HONG KONG- "Prince of Tears"
These four films may well be interesting and worth watching, but none of them have the power to convince anyone that they are the best films of the year and most of them have barely made a blip on the international film circuit.
Indonesia and Sri Lanka are back in the competition (Indonesia took last year off...Sri Lanka last submitted a film in 2003) with topical dramas dealing with ongoing political issues. The Indonesians have chosen a film based on a controversial play ("The Prostitute and the President") about a prostitute who is jailed for murdering a prominent and respected politician. It turns out that the woman has been a victim of human trafficking. Sri Lanka's film, "The Road from Elephant Pass", is set against the backdrop of the country's recently ended civil war, following a senior military man and a young woman trying to cross through enemy territory. There's barely any info on either film on the web, but the trailers don't look like Oscar contenders. Production values are okay but unimpressive and the films both look a little preachy.
Hong Kong and Kazakhstan have been nominated before and their nominees are period dramas that have been seen at major festivals (Hong Kong's premiered in Venice; both were seen at Toronto). However, both have chosen films too divisive to contend for the award. Hong Kong's "Prince of Tears" is a historical drama set in Taiwan during a brutal purge against perceived Communist sympathizers. Despite the baity subject matter, reviews have not been great, and the odd juxtaposition of gay-friendly director Yonfan's pretty boys and serious Cold War politics doesn't sound like it works particularly well. Kazakhstan's "Kelin" is said to be a gorgeous costume drama about a woman married off against her will....It has no dialogue, which I don't think will play very well with the Oscar committee. Although the film looks great, reviews say that the lack of any talking begins to grate in the last half hour. You can count all four out.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY
9. TAIWAN- "No Puedo Vivir Sin Ti"8. TURKEY- "I Saw the Sun"
7. CHINA- "Forever Enthralled"
6. VIETNAM- "Don't Burn It"
What makes a good film? It's not just a matter of acting and storyline....When "4 Months" missed the Oscar shortlist, a lot of people speculated that even a great film with a low budget and gritty camerawork will not make the cut due to a large contingent of Oscar voters with a technical background, who consider quality production values to be a requirements for an Oscar nominee. They have a point.
Turkey and China have selected beautifully shot films with top-notch production values. Turkey's "I Saw the Sun", is about two Kurdish families forced to leave their village due to war, and their subsequent attempts to adjust to difficult new lives in Istanbul and Norway respectively. China's "Forever Enthralled" is a lavish biopic about one of the premiere stars of Beijing opera, and its director Chen Kaige was nominated for a similarly themed film ("Farewell My Concubine") in 1994.
Taiwan and Vietnam have chosen small-scale dramas based on true stories. Taiwan's independent black-and-white drama "No Puedo Vivir Sin Ti" has no stars and a slow pace, but it's a powerful film about a poor, nearly homeless man whose custody over his beloved daughter (the mother abandoned the family) is threatened by government red tape. It just won Best Picture at the Golden Horse awards. Vietnam's "Don't Burn It" is about a idealistic young female doctor whose life is cut short in 1970, during the Vietnam War. Despite arguably stronger reviews than the Chinese and Turkish films, both films are likely to get lost in the shuffle.
Put these two groups together and you might get an Oscar nominee, but none of these films are on anybody's "Best of the Year" list, and with 65 films in the running, they're basically out of luck. Vietnam's patriotic drama, which won the Audience Award at the Fukuoka Film Festival, over the Iranian favorite "About Elly", has the best chance of breaking out.
DARK HORSE POSSIBILITIES
5. INDIA- "Harishchandrachi Factory"
4. JAPAN- "Nobody to Watch Over Me"
For the first-time since the inauguration of the award in 1956, Japan is the "returning champion". Their film- "Nobody to Watch Over Me" -is pretty obscure (so was last year's "Okuribito")- but it's supposed to be very good. A police officer is assigned to protect a teenager from public reprisals, after her older brother is arrested for a couple of brutal murders. India, whose media obsesses annually over India's lack of Oscar success, has sent another obscure film- "Harishchandrachi Factory". The film is not a Bollywood musical like many of India's past nominees. Instead, the film is a loving retelling of the production of India's first-ever feature film- which eventually led to the world's largest film industry. The film is in the regional Marathi language (spoken in the state around Mumbai's Bollywood). There's not much info on the net, but despite a low budget, the film's subject matter may well be able to charm the selection committee. Japan and India are dark horses, but shouldn't be counted out entirely.
REAL CONTENDERS
3. SOUTH KOREA- "Mother"
2. ISRAEL- "Ajami"
These two crowd-pleasing and suspenseful dramas are both very much in the running for the shortlist. Both countries are trying to make Oscar history in their respective countries- Israel has been nominated for the past two years in a row, and would like to achieve a third consecutive nomination (quite difficult these days with so many countries competing....) for "Ajami", a drama co-directed by an Israeli Jewish and Israeli Arab director, and which is the first Israeli submission primarily in Arabic. "Ajami" is supposed to be great- it's a thriller following a number of intersecting stories in modern-day, multi-ethnic Israel. It beat out the internationally favored "Lebanon" at the Israeli Ophir Awards and stands a good chance at being nominated by either the large or elite committee. "Mother" has gotten more attention, but stands a slightly weaker chance. The film is about a devoted mother trying to prove her mentally disabled son is innocent of a brutal murder. Reviews have been good, but the film has a few too many detractors to make the Top Six in the large committee. Korea has an Oscar curse....Also, despite sending excellent films each and every year, Oscar has yet to reward them with a nomination. Why? No clue. Anyway, "Mother" might very well make the shortlist, but will likely miss out on the Top Five.....Or as always, the unfortunate Koreans may be snubbed again.
GOOD CHANCE AT A NOMINATION
1. IRAN- "About Elly" 
I'm ranking "About Elly" #1 in Asia because they have a strong chance at qualifying through either the larger committee and the elite committee. "Elly" is about a group of eight modern, young Iranians on a beach holiday, and what happens when one girl among the group (Elly) mysteriously vanishes. The film has gotten universally positive reviews, and has managed to win some awards. It's supposed to be accessible and interesting, and already has a US distribution deal. It would be a high-profile choice- artistic, thought-provoking and also topical, and would be only the second film from Iran to ever advance in this competition. I say it's in.
Now, the statistics:
Number of countries that have participated in the past: 31
Number of countries accepted into the competition: 16
Number of countries disqualified: 1- MONGOLIA announced "By the Will of Genghis Khan", which was clearly a majority-Russian production (director, writers, language), but which had minority Mongolian input. I assume it was quietly disqualified.
Number of countries opting out: Eight important ones: AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, KYRGYZSTAN, LEBANON, NEPAL, PALESTINE, SINGAPORE and TAJIKISTAN...The Lebanese (who have been a regular participant recently) and the Palestinians (who had a great film year) were particular surprises. Four other countries have only ever submitted films once apiece (Bhutan, Cambodia, Jordan and Malaysia) and 2 others haven't sent films in 30 years (Kuwait and Pakistan).
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Not many at all....Three or four.
Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 16. Arabic, Bengali, Farsi, Hakka, Hebrew, Indonesian, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin Chinese, Marathi, Sinhala, Tagalog, Taiwanese, Thai, Turkish and Vietnamese. The movies from Israel and Taiwan are multi-lingual. Interestingly enough, the Indian movie is in Marathi, the Israeli movie is majority Arabic, and the Kazakh movie has no spoken dialogue.
Highest profile films: The most well-known are probably China's "Forever Enthralled", Iran's "About Elly" and Korea's "Mother"
Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: IRAN's "About Elly".
Country with the Least Shot at a Nomination: PHILIPPINES' poorly reviewed "Grandfather is Dead".....Wrong genre, and too much local humor
Number of Comedies: Three- India and the Philippines plus Thailand, which sent a comedy-drama.
Oscar History: China's Chen Kaige was nominated for an Oscar for "Farewell My Concubine", representing British Hong Kong back in 1994. Golam Rabbany Biplob represented Bangladesh in 2007 but didn't get nominated.
Number of Female Directors: Only one- Former Indonesian political prisoner Ratna Sarumpaet.
Familiar Faces: The biggest name cast comes from China's "Forever Enthralled" which costars Leon Lai, Zhang Ziyi and Japan's Masanobu Ando. Christine Hakim, the grande dame of Indonesian cinema, came back from semi-retirement for "Jamila & the President". Iranian actress Golshifteh Farahani co-starred with Russell Crowe in "Body of Lies", and caused a controversy at home by appearing unveiled. 70-year old Kenneth Tsang appears in Hong Kong's "Prince of Tears"; he's a familiar face after appearing in "Anna & the King", "The Replacement Killers", "Rush Hour 2", and a slew of John Woo films.
Tough Choices: CHINA foolishly chose tepid opera drama "Forever Enthralled" over the acclaimed "City of Life and Death" about the rape of Nanking. China doesn't like controversy and "City" was presumably too divisive. ISRAEL's Academy was criticized for choosing "Ajami" over Venice Film Festival winner "Lebanon", but in retrospect this may have been a wise choice (we'll see in January). KAZAKHSTAN might very well have been nominated for acclaimed historical drama "Gift to Stalin", but chose a strange new film in its place. THE PHILIPPINES did not shortlist Brillante Mendoza's films and snubbed favorite "Lola" for an odd gay-interest comedy. HONG KONG ignored their Best Picture winner "Ip Man", while Taiwan turned down aboriginal drama "1895". Sri Lanka flip-flopped its decision, originally announcing "Flowers in the Sky" before switching to "The Road from Elephant Pass".....this meant snubbing crowd-pleasing comedy "Machan" twice (they say they believed it was ineligible due to its Italian director, but the producer and crew were all Sri Lankan).
Controversies: As mentioned earlier, Sri Lanka changed its mind, Mongolia appears to have been disqualified and the Palestinians opted out.....According to press reports, the director of "Lola", a rival film, told press that his film would be repping the Philippines, but this turned out to be a false rumor. Taiwan threatened to withdraw a film subsidy from "Prince of Tears" if it competed at the Oscars for Hong Kong. "About Elly" was almost disqualified from the Fajr Iran Film Festival, but it was reinstated, reportedly due to pressure from President Ahmadinejad who (strangely enough) liked the film.
Number of countries I predicted correctly: 6- China, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Korea and Vietnam. (China and Israel were tough...) I came really close with Japan, having it in second place.
Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've seen the films from Japan (A-), Taiwan (B), Turkey (B), Thailand (C+) and the Philippines (C-). The DVDs from China and Korea are already out so I should see those soon. I'm especially excited to see the nominees from front-runners Iran and Korea.
Last year's race: I saw eleven of the nineteen Asian submissions last year. They range from Below Average (Bangladesh) to Average (Hong Kong, India, Israel, Taiwan and Turkey) to Quite Good (Kazakhstan, Lebanon and Thailand), to two excellent films deserving of Oscar nominations- Japan's Oscar-winning "Departures and Korea's tearjerker North Korean refugee drama- "Crossing".
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
OSCAR FOREIGN FILM 2010: EASTERN EUROPE
The Eastern European republics have submitted 17 films this year....It's difficult to believe that in 1991, there were only eight countries that existed in the region!. Last year, the ex-Communist countries were snubbed entirely, despite strong contenders from Poland, Romania and Russia. This year, the list can basically be divided into two halves- half the films are clearly out of their league and will have little to no chance at getting an Oscar nomination....The other half the films are real threats, and it will be really difficult to figure out which of these will resonate with the Oscar committee and which ones will not.
NOT A CHANCE IN HELL
17. ARMENIA- Autumn of the Magician What to say? This film has so many strikes against it....The film is a a "short film" (only 50 minutes long), not a feature....The film is a documentary, not fiction....And it's boring. Honestly, it's gotten good reviews at documentary film festivals, but I had never heard of the subject (89-year old Tonino Guerra) and had never seen any of his films....The film buffs on the Oscar committee will likely be more moved than I was, but it stands no chance at a nomination. Armenia should have chosen "Bonded Parallels" instead. Anyway, if you want to see the film, it's available online (for 3 euros) so you can watch it and judge for yourself like I did: http://www.joiningthedocs.tv/main.aspx?level=Society_culture_sport&content=748293715969
YUGOSLAVIAN ALSO-RANS
16. MACEDONIA- "Wingless"
15. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Nightguards"
14. CROATIA- "Donkey"
13. SERBIA- "St. George Shoots the Dragon"
These four films from the former Yugoslavia are all destined to be also-rans....None of them have won any major awards, and none have gotten better-than-average reviews. The Bosnians have chosen a comedy-drama "Nightguards" about a number of quirky characters, including security guards at a furniture store, one of whom thinks he's pregnant. The Croatians have chosen "Donkey", a drama about a family reunion at the end of the Yugoslav wars and the donkey that witnesses family secrets being revealed. It couldn't even manage Best Croatian Film at Croatia's National Film Awards (The Pula Film Festival National Competition). The Macedonians had no Macedonian-language films this year, so they had to choose the only film that was eligible- the Czech-language coproduction, "Wingless". Despite an interesting plot- a Czech man is prophesized to die at the age of 29 and strange things begin to happen when his birthday approaches- the film is supposed to be overly surreal and allegorical. The Serbians have chosen a big-budget World War I drama- "St. George Shoots the Dragon". It's supposed to be a good enough movie, but nobody "loves" it, and it was only chosen when Serbia's original film was found to be ineligible. Director Srdjan Dragojevic directed the brilliant and harrowing war drama "Pretty Village, Pretty Flame". If he couldn't get a nomination for that, then forget "George". The former Yugoslavia's brighest hope this year is the film from Slovenia (See next section). Better luck next year.
GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH
12. ALBANIA- "Alive"
11. LITHUANIA- "Vortex"
10. SLOVENIA- "Landscape No. 2"
9. HUNGARY- "Chameleon"
The Albanians have chosen a drama ("Alive!") about a carefree (and gorgeous) Albanian college student who finds himself involved in a centuries-old blood feud when he returns to his ancestral village for a funeral. Hungary submitted a light drama about a con artist who falls for one of the women he is trying to cheat. The Lithuanians have selected a beautifully filmed black & white drama ("Vortex" aka "Waterhole") about the travails of one man's difficult life under Communism. The Slovenians have chosen a horror-thriller ("Landscape No. 2") about an amoral thief who realizes too late that some stolen documents have the power to destroy him and everyone he cares for. Four interesting films!!
Albania and Lithuania are recent arrivals to the Oscar competition, and each produces only a few films each year. "Alive" and "Vortex" have both received decent enough reviews, but Albania's film suffers from lower-than-average production values, and Lithuania's is too long for its own good. Hungary has a distinguished record in this competition (they still rank in the top twelve of all time...) but they haven't been nominated in 20 years (How the superior "Fateless" missed out with its built-in, baity Holocaust theme, I'll never know...). "Chameleon" is supposed to be an interesting film and I hope to see it, but it's out of its league here. I've seen "Landscape No. 2" and it's a great film...it also has the best reviews of these four films. However, it's a bleak and bloody film...almost a horror movie in terms of its plot and its violence. Not the right genre for Oscar...FYI, the Slovenian nominee is on DVD in the United States already. Go see it if you can!
DARK HORSES
8. ESTONIA- "December Heat"
7. GEORGIA- "The Other Bank"
6. POLAND- "Reverse"
5. BULGARIA- "The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner"
BULGARIA has selected a drama about a grandfather and his amnesiac teenage grandson cycling around the European countryside to restore his memory ("The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner"). ESTONIA has selected "December Heat", a box-office hit at home, drenched in 1920s period music, and featuring a patriotic true story about an attempted coup organized by the Russians during Estonia's first go at independence. GEORGIA has set their story against a more modern set of political problems- the war in Abkhazia. "The Other Bank" follows a young boy whose family is separated by this longstanding but little-known war, as he searches for his father in a war zone. POLAND has selected a period black comedy- "Reverse"- set in the 1950s, about a girl, her mother and her elderly grandmother trying to cover up the murder (and dispose of the body) of a Communist agent.
All of these films are likely to leave a positive impression on the Academy, but are likely to miss the mark in making the Top Nine- They don't have the universally good reviews to make the Top Six for the large committee, nor the awards and/or backing to get one of the Wildcard slots from the smaller committee.
Bulgaria really does have a baity plot though...this sort of "Kolya-esque" intergenerational drama has worked in the past, and could potentially charm the older voters who serve on the committee. It's also the biggest Bulgarian production in decades, and it can't be counted out entirely.
CONTENDERS
4. RUSSIA- "Ward No. 6"
3. ROMANIA- "Police, Adjective"
ROMANIA and RUSSIA have sent two highbrow films that have gotten very good reviews. Russia's "Ward No. 6" is based on a Chekhov story about a doctor who becomes a patient in his own mental asylum. The story has been transplanted to contemporary Russia and is supposed to be a thought-provoking and intellectual film. It may be too highbrow for the larger committee, but stands a chance with the elite one. ROMANIA (along with SOUTH KOREA) suffers from an Oscar curse....Nearly every year, they send high-quality films that come close to being nominated....but every year they fail to make the shortlist. This year is no exception, and "Police, Adjective" may become the first Romanian movie to make the cut....Having said that, I predicted they Romania would make it to the finals for the past two years. I was wrong both times. "Police, Adjective", another intellectual film, concerns a Romanian cop surveilling a juvenile criminal. Both films have a lot of great acting, great writing and moral dilemmas but what they both lack is being part of the....
HOLOCAUST SHOWDOWN OF 2009
2. SLOVAKIA- "Broken Promise"
1. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Protektor"
Under Communism, Czechoslovakia was second only to the former USSR in the number of Oscar nominations...Each of the two republics of the former Czechoslovakia have sent World War II films that focus on the relations of Jews and Christians around the early 1940s. "Protektor" is about a Czech radio announcer who agrees to broadcast Nazi propaganda in return for a guarantee of protection for his flamboyant Jewish wife who refuses to follow new anti-Semitic rules in German-occupied Bohemia. It's brand-new and there's not much information about the film on the Internet...."Broken Promise" is about a young Jewish man coming-of-age in the increasingly Fascist 1930s.
The film boasts very strong acting and has appeared at a number of mid-range film festivals worldwide. Neither film has won any major awards and neither film has gotten reviews as good as the films from Romania or Russia....The Slovak movie is made on somewhat of a low-budget. What they DO have is the Holocaust. The Oscar committee can rarely resist a WWII movie or a Holocaust movie. I expect one of these films (but probably not both) will join Norway's "Max Manus" on the Oscar shortlist. This isn't really fair, but that's the way this committee votes!
Now, the statistics:
Number of countries invited: 21
Number of countries submitting films: 17
Number of countries disqualified: None.
Number of countries opting out: 4- AZERBAIJAN, LATVIA and UKRAINE, all submitted films last year. BELARUS is also missing, but they last submitted in 1996. Also missing: MONTENEGRO, which produced its first film since independence- "Look At Me". Too bad. Belarus' Post-WWII drama "Cadet" might have been a contender.
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Lots of dark horses....I'd say eight are threats.
Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Thirteen- Serbo-Croatian (3 films) and Czech (2 films) + one film each in Albanian, Bulgarian, Estonian, Georgian, Hungarian, Lithuanian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Slovak and Slovene....The Armenian film is a mystery- the version I saw was almost entirely in English with a little bit in Italian, so I'm not sure how it qualified at all.
Highest profile film: ROMANIA's "Police, Adjective" has made the biggest name internationally, but there's a lot of potential on this list.
Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Probably, the CZECH REPUBLIC
Country with the Least Shot at a Nomination: ARMENIA's dull documentary short.
Number of Comedies: Poland sent a black comedy about three women covering up a murder....I've heard that some consider the Bosnian film to be a black comedy as well.
Oscar History: Lots of young, up-and-coming directors on this list....Nobody has been nominated for an Oscar before although Macedonia's Ivo Trajkov ("The Great Water"), Russia's Karen Shakhnazarov ("Zero City") and Serbia's Srdjan Dragojevic (the awesome "Pretty Village, Pretty Flame") have been in this race before.
Number of Female Directors: Just one- Hungary's Krisztina Goda
Familiar Faces: Discerning viewers may recognize Vlad Ivanov ("4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days") in the Romanian submission. Lazar Ristovski of Serbia and Emir Hadzihafizbegovic of Bosnia (who costars in the Croatian film), are easily the most famous actors in their respective countries. I'd never heard of Tonino Guerro, the documentary subject of Armenia's film, but apparently he's quite a name to some people.
Tough Choices: A lof of people thought Poland would go with Andrzej Wajda's "Sweet Rush", even though reviews weren't great....The Russians had a nine-film shortlist, of which "Wild Field" was the most acclaimed. Also ignored: "Operation Danube" (Czech Republic), "Ordinary People" (Serbia) and "Tales from the Golden Age" (Romania).
Controversies: Armenia's odd selection was directed by the President of Armenia's Film Board. The director of the Russian submission was on this year's selection Committee. Serbia's Oscar committe originally chose "Here and There" co-starring Cyndi Lauper (?!) by one vote over "St. George". They consulted with AMPAS and were advised the film was more than 50% in English, causing them to switch to their runner-up. Macedonia's film got through the nationality requirements despite being featuring a Czech cast speaking Czech.
Number of countries I predicted correctly: Only 5- Estonia, Macedonia, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia....I chose Bulgaria's film LAST YEAR since it played on the film festival circuit for nearly a year before premiering at home in Bulgaria. I came pretty close with Albania, Georgia and Romania....And my picks for Bosnia ("On the Road") and Russia ("Tsar") didn't premiere in time but could be threats next year.
Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen the nominees from Armenia (terribly boring) and Slovenia (suspenseful, great but not Oscary). I'd love to see Poland's black comedy "Reverse" and Albania's blood feud drama "Alive!", but doubt they will ever come out in the USA.
Last year's race: I saw the submissions from Estonia ("I Was Here"), Latvia ("Defenders of Riga") and the Czech Republic ("The Karamazovs"). Estonia's was great, Latvia's well-made and the Czech film is the only time I have made the conscious decision to go to sleep in a cinema. Just awful.
Next: the films from Asia
NOT A CHANCE IN HELL
17. ARMENIA- Autumn of the Magician What to say? This film has so many strikes against it....The film is a a "short film" (only 50 minutes long), not a feature....The film is a documentary, not fiction....And it's boring. Honestly, it's gotten good reviews at documentary film festivals, but I had never heard of the subject (89-year old Tonino Guerra) and had never seen any of his films....The film buffs on the Oscar committee will likely be more moved than I was, but it stands no chance at a nomination. Armenia should have chosen "Bonded Parallels" instead. Anyway, if you want to see the film, it's available online (for 3 euros) so you can watch it and judge for yourself like I did: http://www.joiningthedocs.tv/main.aspx?level=Society_culture_sport&content=748293715969YUGOSLAVIAN ALSO-RANS
16. MACEDONIA- "Wingless"
15. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "Nightguards"
14. CROATIA- "Donkey"
13. SERBIA- "St. George Shoots the Dragon"
These four films from the former Yugoslavia are all destined to be also-rans....None of them have won any major awards, and none have gotten better-than-average reviews. The Bosnians have chosen a comedy-drama "Nightguards" about a number of quirky characters, including security guards at a furniture store, one of whom thinks he's pregnant. The Croatians have chosen "Donkey", a drama about a family reunion at the end of the Yugoslav wars and the donkey that witnesses family secrets being revealed. It couldn't even manage Best Croatian Film at Croatia's National Film Awards (The Pula Film Festival National Competition). The Macedonians had no Macedonian-language films this year, so they had to choose the only film that was eligible- the Czech-language coproduction, "Wingless". Despite an interesting plot- a Czech man is prophesized to die at the age of 29 and strange things begin to happen when his birthday approaches- the film is supposed to be overly surreal and allegorical. The Serbians have chosen a big-budget World War I drama- "St. George Shoots the Dragon". It's supposed to be a good enough movie, but nobody "loves" it, and it was only chosen when Serbia's original film was found to be ineligible. Director Srdjan Dragojevic directed the brilliant and harrowing war drama "Pretty Village, Pretty Flame". If he couldn't get a nomination for that, then forget "George". The former Yugoslavia's brighest hope this year is the film from Slovenia (See next section). Better luck next year.
GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH
12. ALBANIA- "Alive"
11. LITHUANIA- "Vortex"
10. SLOVENIA- "Landscape No. 2"
9. HUNGARY- "Chameleon"
The Albanians have chosen a drama ("Alive!") about a carefree (and gorgeous) Albanian college student who finds himself involved in a centuries-old blood feud when he returns to his ancestral village for a funeral. Hungary submitted a light drama about a con artist who falls for one of the women he is trying to cheat. The Lithuanians have selected a beautifully filmed black & white drama ("Vortex" aka "Waterhole") about the travails of one man's difficult life under Communism. The Slovenians have chosen a horror-thriller ("Landscape No. 2") about an amoral thief who realizes too late that some stolen documents have the power to destroy him and everyone he cares for. Four interesting films!!
Albania and Lithuania are recent arrivals to the Oscar competition, and each produces only a few films each year. "Alive" and "Vortex" have both received decent enough reviews, but Albania's film suffers from lower-than-average production values, and Lithuania's is too long for its own good. Hungary has a distinguished record in this competition (they still rank in the top twelve of all time...) but they haven't been nominated in 20 years (How the superior "Fateless" missed out with its built-in, baity Holocaust theme, I'll never know...). "Chameleon" is supposed to be an interesting film and I hope to see it, but it's out of its league here. I've seen "Landscape No. 2" and it's a great film...it also has the best reviews of these four films. However, it's a bleak and bloody film...almost a horror movie in terms of its plot and its violence. Not the right genre for Oscar...FYI, the Slovenian nominee is on DVD in the United States already. Go see it if you can!
DARK HORSES
8. ESTONIA- "December Heat"
7. GEORGIA- "The Other Bank"
6. POLAND- "Reverse"
5. BULGARIA- "The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner"
BULGARIA has selected a drama about a grandfather and his amnesiac teenage grandson cycling around the European countryside to restore his memory ("The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner"). ESTONIA has selected "December Heat", a box-office hit at home, drenched in 1920s period music, and featuring a patriotic true story about an attempted coup organized by the Russians during Estonia's first go at independence. GEORGIA has set their story against a more modern set of political problems- the war in Abkhazia. "The Other Bank" follows a young boy whose family is separated by this longstanding but little-known war, as he searches for his father in a war zone. POLAND has selected a period black comedy- "Reverse"- set in the 1950s, about a girl, her mother and her elderly grandmother trying to cover up the murder (and dispose of the body) of a Communist agent.
All of these films are likely to leave a positive impression on the Academy, but are likely to miss the mark in making the Top Nine- They don't have the universally good reviews to make the Top Six for the large committee, nor the awards and/or backing to get one of the Wildcard slots from the smaller committee.
Bulgaria really does have a baity plot though...this sort of "Kolya-esque" intergenerational drama has worked in the past, and could potentially charm the older voters who serve on the committee. It's also the biggest Bulgarian production in decades, and it can't be counted out entirely.
CONTENDERS
4. RUSSIA- "Ward No. 6"
3. ROMANIA- "Police, Adjective"
ROMANIA and RUSSIA have sent two highbrow films that have gotten very good reviews. Russia's "Ward No. 6" is based on a Chekhov story about a doctor who becomes a patient in his own mental asylum. The story has been transplanted to contemporary Russia and is supposed to be a thought-provoking and intellectual film. It may be too highbrow for the larger committee, but stands a chance with the elite one. ROMANIA (along with SOUTH KOREA) suffers from an Oscar curse....Nearly every year, they send high-quality films that come close to being nominated....but every year they fail to make the shortlist. This year is no exception, and "Police, Adjective" may become the first Romanian movie to make the cut....Having said that, I predicted they Romania would make it to the finals for the past two years. I was wrong both times. "Police, Adjective", another intellectual film, concerns a Romanian cop surveilling a juvenile criminal. Both films have a lot of great acting, great writing and moral dilemmas but what they both lack is being part of the....
HOLOCAUST SHOWDOWN OF 2009
2. SLOVAKIA- "Broken Promise"
1. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Protektor"
Under Communism, Czechoslovakia was second only to the former USSR in the number of Oscar nominations...Each of the two republics of the former Czechoslovakia have sent World War II films that focus on the relations of Jews and Christians around the early 1940s. "Protektor" is about a Czech radio announcer who agrees to broadcast Nazi propaganda in return for a guarantee of protection for his flamboyant Jewish wife who refuses to follow new anti-Semitic rules in German-occupied Bohemia. It's brand-new and there's not much information about the film on the Internet...."Broken Promise" is about a young Jewish man coming-of-age in the increasingly Fascist 1930s.
The film boasts very strong acting and has appeared at a number of mid-range film festivals worldwide. Neither film has won any major awards and neither film has gotten reviews as good as the films from Romania or Russia....The Slovak movie is made on somewhat of a low-budget. What they DO have is the Holocaust. The Oscar committee can rarely resist a WWII movie or a Holocaust movie. I expect one of these films (but probably not both) will join Norway's "Max Manus" on the Oscar shortlist. This isn't really fair, but that's the way this committee votes! Now, the statistics:
Number of countries invited: 21
Number of countries submitting films: 17
Number of countries disqualified: None.
Number of countries opting out: 4- AZERBAIJAN, LATVIA and UKRAINE, all submitted films last year. BELARUS is also missing, but they last submitted in 1996. Also missing: MONTENEGRO, which produced its first film since independence- "Look At Me". Too bad. Belarus' Post-WWII drama "Cadet" might have been a contender.
Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Lots of dark horses....I'd say eight are threats.
Number of Foreign Languages Represented: Thirteen- Serbo-Croatian (3 films) and Czech (2 films) + one film each in Albanian, Bulgarian, Estonian, Georgian, Hungarian, Lithuanian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Slovak and Slovene....The Armenian film is a mystery- the version I saw was almost entirely in English with a little bit in Italian, so I'm not sure how it qualified at all.
Highest profile film: ROMANIA's "Police, Adjective" has made the biggest name internationally, but there's a lot of potential on this list.
Country with the Best Shot at a Nomination: Probably, the CZECH REPUBLIC
Country with the Least Shot at a Nomination: ARMENIA's dull documentary short.
Number of Comedies: Poland sent a black comedy about three women covering up a murder....I've heard that some consider the Bosnian film to be a black comedy as well.
Oscar History: Lots of young, up-and-coming directors on this list....Nobody has been nominated for an Oscar before although Macedonia's Ivo Trajkov ("The Great Water"), Russia's Karen Shakhnazarov ("Zero City") and Serbia's Srdjan Dragojevic (the awesome "Pretty Village, Pretty Flame") have been in this race before.
Number of Female Directors: Just one- Hungary's Krisztina Goda
Familiar Faces: Discerning viewers may recognize Vlad Ivanov ("4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days") in the Romanian submission. Lazar Ristovski of Serbia and Emir Hadzihafizbegovic of Bosnia (who costars in the Croatian film), are easily the most famous actors in their respective countries. I'd never heard of Tonino Guerro, the documentary subject of Armenia's film, but apparently he's quite a name to some people.
Tough Choices: A lof of people thought Poland would go with Andrzej Wajda's "Sweet Rush", even though reviews weren't great....The Russians had a nine-film shortlist, of which "Wild Field" was the most acclaimed. Also ignored: "Operation Danube" (Czech Republic), "Ordinary People" (Serbia) and "Tales from the Golden Age" (Romania).
Controversies: Armenia's odd selection was directed by the President of Armenia's Film Board. The director of the Russian submission was on this year's selection Committee. Serbia's Oscar committe originally chose "Here and There" co-starring Cyndi Lauper (?!) by one vote over "St. George". They consulted with AMPAS and were advised the film was more than 50% in English, causing them to switch to their runner-up. Macedonia's film got through the nationality requirements despite being featuring a Czech cast speaking Czech.
Number of countries I predicted correctly: Only 5- Estonia, Macedonia, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia....I chose Bulgaria's film LAST YEAR since it played on the film festival circuit for nearly a year before premiering at home in Bulgaria. I came pretty close with Albania, Georgia and Romania....And my picks for Bosnia ("On the Road") and Russia ("Tsar") didn't premiere in time but could be threats next year.
Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've already seen the nominees from Armenia (terribly boring) and Slovenia (suspenseful, great but not Oscary). I'd love to see Poland's black comedy "Reverse" and Albania's blood feud drama "Alive!", but doubt they will ever come out in the USA.
Last year's race: I saw the submissions from Estonia ("I Was Here"), Latvia ("Defenders of Riga") and the Czech Republic ("The Karamazovs"). Estonia's was great, Latvia's well-made and the Czech film is the only time I have made the conscious decision to go to sleep in a cinema. Just awful.
Next: the films from Asia
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