OSCARS 2023: Predictions for the American Submissions

 And here are the predictions for Canada and the countries of Latin America:

1.   ARGENTINA- “Argentina 1985” Argentina loves Ricardo Darin. He hasn’t made a movie in three years (they sent his last one, “Heroic Losers”) but he’s back on screen with “Argentina 1985”, a weighty drama set to premiere in the main competition at Venice and then in Argentina cinemas at the end of September. Besides Darin and the Venice label, the film is a dramatic thriller about lawyers facing off against the Argentina military dictatorship, which Argentinians will remember is the same setting that won them their first Oscar. And Santiago Mitre is a well respected director what has scripted several Argentinian submissions and come close to being selected himself for films like “The student” and “Paulina”. It should be an easy choice, but for one dark horse- “Official Competition”, the Spanish comedy starring Antonio and Penelope, but directed by the Argentinian pair selected in 2016. Argentina tends to be one of the last countries to select their film, while spain usually decides weeks earlier. There is a chance that if Spain ignores their front runner (as they often do), Argentina may decide to snap up what they believe will be an easy nom. But “1985” is still likely. Unlikely: “Sublime” (Berlin) and “The Substitute” (San Sebastian). 

2.   BOLIVIA- “Utama” Bolivia has had a great film year but winning the Sundance Film Festival probably has the race locked up for “Utama”, which is mentioned as a dark horse for Bolivia’s first Oscar nomination, which would mean so much here (where I’m living now). The only pitfall is that it hasn’t been screened here yet, but I don’t see that as an obstacle. If for some reason it’s release is postponed until next year, they could send “El visitante” (Beat Screenplay, Tribeca) or “Sun and Daughter” (Munich). 

3.   BRAZIL- "Mars One" I wanted to wait for Brazil's (usually very long) shortlist to come out, but other countries are starting to announce so I'll go out on a limb with Brazil and say that they'll choose Afro-Brazilian family drama "Mars One" which has gotten warm notices at U.S. film festivals like Sundance. It's also anti-Bolsonaro so it depends who is on Brazil's committee.  But part of me wants to predict crazy horror-musical "Medusa", which premiered at Cannes last year. It won Best Picture at the Rio de Janeiro Film Prizes and would be a much more visible contender. Brazil has dumped the favorite and gone with a dark horse the past two years (one good, one bad). Other very possible films: "Duetto", about an Italian-Brazilian family, and "Pedro" a glossy 19th century historical drama about the founder of Brazil's short-lived royal dynasty.  

4.  CANADA- “Falcon Lake” The Canadian race is confusing because they have a lot of Canadian films premiering at Toronto (which is normal) and most of the films don’t seem to have any trailers or any indication of whether they’ll be contenders. One of the few Toronto films that (a)- is not in English, (b)- has buzz and (3)- has already played at festivals is “Falcon Lake” (Cannes), a French-language coming-of-age thriller. It seems to check all the right boxes and although Canada has plenty of other films to choose from, this really seems to be the frontrunner.  Other French-language options: hit man thriller “Confessions”, teenage escort drama “Noemie Says Yes”, based-on-a-true-story embezzlement drama “Norbourg” and my choice for runner-up, “Rosie”, an indigenous drama debuting at Toronto starring a cute little orphan girl.  

5.   CHILE- “1976” Chile will probably choose because two films that debuted at the Cannes Film Festival. “1976” is a new film set during the dark days of the Pinochet dictatorship when a middle-class woman accepts a priest’s request to shelter a fugitive. Reviews have been mixed, but the same went for “Spider”, which Chile sent three years ago. “My Imaginary Country”, by Patricio Guzman, is a documentary about the 2019 leftist protests that nearly brought down Chile. Chile got a nomination for a documentary two years ago (though that was a much lighter one), 81-year old Patricio Guzman has won a Goya but never been sent to the Oscars, and- politically- one of the student protest leaders is now President. Dark horse: “Blanquita”, about a Catholic Church scandal, is set to premiere in Venice but there’s no word if it will be eligible this year or next year. Rounding out the Top 5 options for Chile: “The Cow Who Sang a Song Into the Future” (Sundance), a well-reviewed environmental drama, and “Regresar al Final” a family drama set during COVID confinements, which were particularly strict in Chile.

6.   COLOMBIA- “Amparo” With many of Colombia’s major directors working in television, I’m pretty sure they will go with Simon Mesa Soto, a young director who won the Cannes Palme d’Or for Best Short Film in 2014 at the tender young age of 27. Mesa Soto made his feature debut with “Amparo” at Cannes 2021 in the Critics Week section, a film about a mother who finds her 18-year old son is missing, and learns he has been drafted into the military while she was at work. I predicted it last year but it didn’t premiere in Colombia until April 2022. In a very close second place, "Kings of the World", about the lives of a group of teens in Medellin. Its set to premiere at San Sebastian in Spain, and in Colombian cinemas in October. In third and fourth place are two more feature debuts- “La Jauria” (Cannes 2022, Critics Week Grand Prize), about a juvenile detention center in the jungle, and “The Red Tree” (Seattle/Tallinn Black Nights)- about a young man in search of his mother who abandoned the family.  Rounding out the Top Six: “The Rust” (La Roya), about a young man growing up in the rural countryside, and “City of Wild Beasts”, which was just released on Hulu and HBOMax. I see some people predicting Cannes drama “Un varon”, but I don’t think reviews are good enough.

7.  COSTA RICA- “Domingo and the Mist" (Domingo y la niebla) Costa Rica is confusing because I can’t find any information about release dates and I don’t know what’s eligible. What I can say is that teen pregnancy drama “Aurora” won Best Costa Rican Film in 2021 and “La Pasion de Nella Barrantes”, about a woman descending into madness due to religious devotion, won it in 2022. “Domingo and the Mist” debuted at Cannes 2022, and “Volvio”, a well-reviewed comedy about a man awakening from a 19-year coma, is the only one I can confirm was released in theatres. Last but not least, “La hija de la muerte” is based on a well-regarded national novel and is coming out at the end of the year. There’s no way of knowing which of these five films will go forward without knowing what’s eligible. On the off chance that all five are released in 2022, I’d predict “Domingo” and “La hija” as the two frontrunners. For now, let’s assume the Cannes label pushes environmental drama “Domingo & the Mist” to the front of the queue.

8.  CUBA- “The Foam of Days” (La Espuma de los Dias) Cuba submits films about half the time, most recently in 2020. If they send anything, I predict it will be “The Foam of Days”, a drama about the friendship between four men, one of whom has just been released from prison. It screened in Cuba in January so it’s eligible. Last year’s Habana Film Festival didn’t have a single Cuban feature in competition. The highest-profile film is sci-fi indie “Corazon Azul”, but I believe that’s by a dissident director. If they’re released, we could see comedy “Riquimbili” (by one of Cuba’s most prominent regime-allied directors) or “Bajo un sol poderoso”, about a filmmaker dealing with the ghosts of characters from his films.

9.   DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- “La hembrita” The DR has been regularly sending films to the Oscars since 2011 and in these eleven years, they’ve send three films by Leticia Tonos, three films by José Maria Cabral (my favorite) and two films by the directing team of Israel Cardenas and Laura Amelia Guzman. So, that means that “Parsley” (Cabral) and “La hembrita” (Cardenas/Guzman) are statistically the frontrunners. However, I think this year they’d like to send a film by somebody new for the first time since 2018, namely “Carajita”, which won Best Latin American Film in Guadalajara and Miami in 2022. This drama about race and social classes focuses on a girl and her nanny and has very good reviews…but there’s one problem- directors Ulises Porra and Silvina Schnicer are from Spain and Argentina respectively and so it s a lot of the crew. So it’s on the bubble. Picking Cabral’s “Parsley” would also cause a headache, as the film’s focus- a historical massacre of Haitians- is controversial in the DR. Rounding out their choices are music drama “Flow Calle”, directed by a very popular actor, upcoming thriller “Broma de la Justicia”, and “Bantu Mama”, about an Afro-Dominican woman rescued by three teenagers. I think they’ll want to send “Carajita” but will end up with “La hembrita”, about a wealthy woman taking care of her maid’s granddaughters, which would mean Cardenas & Guzman repping the country two years in a row.

10.  ECUADOR- “Lo invisible” Ecuador has now becoming a regular participant in this category, missing just one year since 2013. Two previously submitted directors have promising new movies this year- “Lo invisible” (Toronto), a horror-drama about post-partum depression, and “Octopus Skin”, about a pair of creepy twins. Release dates are confusing but it looks like “Octopus” will open in December, which is too late to compete this year. There’s also historical costume drama “Camino a la libertad” whose release was delayed years by COVID, fantasy-drama “Al Oriente” (Venice 2021), and a weird erotic drama called “The Fever”. I think this is a dead heat between “Lo invisible”, which has the festival cache, and “Camino a la libertad”, which is a bigger, splashier film but one made for local audiences. Based on their previous, gritty indie submissions, I’ll pick “Invisible”.

11.  GUATEMALA- “Roza” Guatemala submitted two films by Jayro Bustamente since 2015, including the shortlisted “La Llorona” which many pundits believe probably came in sixth place in 2020. I’m predicting “Roza”, a film about a migrant worker who returns home to a family and a community that has moved on without him. Two other options: Jayro Bustamente wrote coming-of-age drama “1991” which I predicted last year…but I can’t find a release date; U.S. director Justin Lerner has repped Guatemala at several festivals with “Cadejo Blanco”, which may or may not meet the nationality requirements.

12.  HAITI- “July 7” Haiti submitted a film for the second time last year with “Freda” (Cannes UCR). They have a rather exciting film in post-production- “July 7”- about a woman investigating the real-life assassination of the Haitian President Jovenel Moise in his home in July 2021. But there’s no release date and Haiti isn’t likely to be able to finish the film quickly. Unlikely: if they really want to send something that’s already released, they could send “Vakans”, a rom-com about wealthy young Haitian expats living in Miami.

13.   HONDURAS- “Indomita Salvaje” Honduras has sent films three times in the past five years. They have two new low-budget action movies in cinemas this year (“Esperanza de Honor” and “Indomita Salvaje”) and a well-received indigenous short film (“Bili Kat”) but their selection is a lot worse than last year (which they skipped) so I can’t really see them sending any of these.  

14.   MEXICO- “Bardo” Alejandro Iñárritu has made four feature films in the United States, one in Spain and just one (“Amores Perros”) in his native Mexico. All six netted Oscar nominations. Three of the four American films netted Best Picture nominations (“Birdman” won) and he won Best Director twice in a row for “Birdman” and “The Revenant”. Both Spanish-language films made the Final Five in the Foreign Film category, and both probably came in second place. So, it would be foolish to bet against “Bardo”, his first film made in Mexico in over twenty years, one of the favorites at this year’s Venice Film Festival and a hotly anticipated title on Netflix. This is pretty much a lock. On the off chance, the Mexican Academy doesn’t like this as-yet-unseen film, they could choose “Dos Estaciones” (Sundance)…but I’m sure this will be “Bardo”.

15.   NICARAGUA- “Daughter of Rage” (La hija de todas las rabias) Nicaragua has only sent one film in the past thirty years (“La Yuma” in 2010, which I enjoyed). They do have a fairly significant premiere at San Sebastian, namely “Daughter or Rage” (La hija de todas las rabias) about an impoverished little girl growing up in a landfill.

16.  PANAMA- “Birthday Boy" (Cumpleañero) Panama was shortlisted for the first time last year for “Plaza Catedral” and I expect they’ll be hoping to make it two in a row with the upcoming “Birthday Boy” (Cumpleañero), about a 45-year old who gathered all of his friends together for a huge party…and then announces he plans to commit suicide that evening. Director Arturo Montenegro was selected in 2019. If it’s not released in time, perhaps they’ll send documentary “For Your Peace of Mind, Make Your Own Museum”, which won Best Central American Film at the Costa Rica International Film Festival or, less likely, local COVID comedy “Sancocho Presidencial”.

17.  PARAGUAY - “Eami” Paraguayan films rarely win major international film festivals so when mystical fable/docudrama “Eami” won in Rotterdam, it automatically became the front runner to represent Paraguay at the Oscars. Add that to the fact that there’s really no competition and that director Paz Encima was considered an Oscar contender for “Paraguay Hammock” before Paraguay had a recognized Oscar committee, and this is a lock. Trivia: although Paraguay is officially bilingual (Guarani and Spanish), this would be their second submission in a row in the dying Ayoreo language. 

18.  PERU- “La Pampa” The two Peruvian features in competition at the Lima Film Festival this month were “Tiempos Futuros”, a sci-fi drama and human trafficking drama “La Pampa”. Joining them in contention to rep Peru are “Huesera”, a twisty horror drama that won two awards in Tribeca, “Operation Condor”, a corruption drama set in the  1970s, and “Antonia en la vida”, about a 45-year old woman rediscovering life. I think “La Pampa” will get this, followed by “Huesera” and “Operation Condor” in third.

19.   PUERTO RICO- “Without Prescription” (Receta no incluida) Puerto Rico was unfairly and unceremoniously disinvited from the Oscar competition in 2011, despite submitting films for over two decades. Hopefully, AMPAS will reverse this silly decision in the near future. If Puerto Rico is invited again, they’d certainly send “Without Prescription”, a drama that won the Audience Award at South by Southwest, about a woman living her life with OCD.

20.  SURINAME- “Dear Mister Bouterse” Tiny Suriname sent a film once in 2020. I doubt they’ll enter this year. The only film I know of is 60-minute documentary “Dear Mister Bouterse”, about the country’s eccentric dictator who ruled the country after a coup from 1980-1987 and again as an elected leader 2010-2020. 

21.  URUGUAY- “Nine” I originally counted three contenders- sports drama “9”, upcoming Netflix thriller “Togo”, and trendy horror flick “Virus-32” (they picked a horror movie by the same director in 2011) with one question mark- “The Employer & the Employee” premiered at Cannes Director’s Fortnight in 2021 and submitted itself to represent Uruguay but lost the race to “Broken Glass Theory”. However, after losing that race, its release date was postponed until April 2022. However, on August 3^rd, the Uruguayan Academy (ICAU) announced that three films were being considered- “9”, “The Employer & the Employee” and “Bosco”, a documentary I’d never heard of. Zombies (sad!) and Netflix are out. So, what will they pick? “Employer & the Employee” is the highest-profile and “Bosco”, about the director tracing her roots back to a depopulated village in Tuscany with only 13 inhabitants, probably has the best reviews. But the Uruguayan Academy has already rejected “Employer” and has never selected a documentary before. So, although I hate sports movies, I think they’ll choose “9” which combines the Uruguayan love for football with the trendy topic of social media harassment and bullying.

22.  VENEZUELA- “Jezabel” Despite economic collapse, Venezuela makes some really wonderful films. This year, Venezuela has two main choices- (1)- “Me and the Beasts”, a weird dramedy about a guitarist trying to build a solo musical career amidst Venezuela’s economic crash, or (2)- “Jezabel”, a crime-thriller by Hernan Jabes (who probably came close to a nomination with “Rock, Paper, Scissors” in 2012) about three adults whose lives are still being affected by the murder of a friend sixteen years before. “Me and the Beasts” just beat “Jezebel” for Best Picture and Best Director at the Venezuelan Film Festival. But “Jezabel” won the important Best Picture award from the press, and the Venezuelan Academy tends to select grim, gritty films….and it’s what I think Venezuela will choose to go to the Oscars. Dark horse: the upcoming “Sons of the Revolution”, following two young lovers over 25 years of Venezuelan history. Unlikely but possible: “Three’s a Crowd, Four is a Disaster”, a Birdcage-style comedy based on a local play or “La Toma”, a low-budget Romeo & Juliet story that finished second behind “Me & the Beasts” at the national film awards.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

 EL SALVADOR is the only country in Latin America that's never sent a film to the Oscars. If they decide to make their debut this year, it will probably be "Polvo de gallo", a B&W allegorical tale about abortion (El Salvador has some of the most restrictive anti-abotion laws on earth, imprisoning women simply for having a miscarriage). Director Julio Lopez represented El Salvador in the Central American omnibus "Days of Light", which represented Honduras two years ago. They also have "Antes la Lluvia", about the difficulties of two women seeking to migrate to the United States and "Hoy", a drama about drivers (bus, taxi, etc.) that premiered in 2020 but was delayed due to COVID. 

OSCARS 2023: Predictions for the African and Middle Eastern Submissions

 Here are the 34 countries from Africa and the Middle East. Many of these countries have only sent films once or twice. Last year, 17 of these countries sent films. 

  ALGERIA- “Nos frangins” Algeria seems to have three options. The two true Algerian films are “La vie d’apres”, about a widow and her son who are driven from their village by a series of vicious rumors, and “Argu”, a film set in the ethnically unique Kabylia region, about a young man whose carefree, bohemian lifestyle leads the village elders to place him in a mental institution. I give “La vie d’apres” the edge. But watch out- three-time Oscar nominee Rachid Bouchareb had a new film at Cannes and- as far as I know- Algeria has never failed to send one of his eligible films. “Nos frangins” (Our Brothers) represented France at Cannes and is about the 1986 death of a French-Algerian student due to police violence.

 BURKINA FASO- “The Crossing” Burkina Faso sent a film just once in 1989. They tried again in 2019 and were rejected for not having an approved committee. This year, they could return with “Massoud!”, about the radicalized son of a respected imam, although that faces some nationality issues (The director is Burkinabe but the film was made in Chad). More likely would be “The Crossing”, a drama about a man who returns home to Burkina Faso after ten hard years working in Italy, who agrees to help six young people migrate to Europe.

  CAMEROON- “Kankan” Cameroon has sent films the past two years. The only film I’ve heard of this year is a biopic of one of their most acclaimed comedians called “Kankan”. The poster says it will premiere in Cameroon on October 21. 

  CHAD- “Massoud!” Director and former Minister of Culture Mahamat-Saleh Haroun has made five features in Chad since 2002 and Chad has sent three of them to the Oscars. My favorite was “Grigris”. Chad doesn’t have any other international directors so they’ll probably have to wait until he makes another film.  Dark horse: “Massoud!”, about the radicalized son of a respected imam, was filmed in Chad by a Burkinabe director who has worked as crew on at least one of Haroun’s films.

  CONGO-KINSHASA- “Alone in A Strange World” Congo-Kinshasa submitted a film just once in 1997, even though they’ve had some strong contenders (“Viva Riva”, “Benda Bilili”) since. In the unlikely event that they return this year, they could send “Alone in a Strange World”, about a Congolese family that sends their seven-year old son to Germany to escape the civil wars of the 1990s. It’s played at some African film festivals and has German production partners. Congo-born Rafiki Fariala had a documentary in Berlin (“We Students”), but that film was about his life in the neighboring Central African Republic.

  COTE D’IVOIRE- “Ticket At Any Cost” Côte d’Ivoire (aka Ivory Coast) is another one of those African countries that enters only when their premiere international director makes a movie, in this case Philippe LaCote. LaCote has a new thriller in development (“7 Gold Thieves”) which is scheduled to start filming in Africa and the United States in 2024. This year, I doubt they will enter, although they do have comedy “Ticket At Any Cost”, a comedy about a young man in need of cash who wins the lottery…but I fear it may have been released too early.

  EGYPT- “Kira & El Gin” Of course, everyone knows Egypt should send “Feathers”, possibly their best chance at getting their first Oscar nomination since they began submitting films in 1958. Of course they probably won’t. There has been a weird backlash against the film in Egypt (vague allegations that it "highlighted poverty" which is ridiculous if you've seen prior submissions like "Poisonous Roses" or "Lust") despite its excellent reviews. I believe the film is in fact eligible because of new COVID-19 rules saying a film can qualify with a 2022 cinematic run in another country.  In the past, the Egyptian Academy has made bold, controversial choices so I hope I’m wrong.  Egypt doesn't have many other options. “Kira & El-Gin” is a nationalist, three-hour box-office hit about Egyptian history, namely overthrowing the British in 1919. “The Crime” is about a cold case disappearance (murder?) from the 1970s. Both films are by previously selected directors (Marwan Hamed made “The Yacoubian Building”, which I loved) and geared more towards Egyptian audiences. “You Resemble Me” is a drama about Islamic radicalization directed by New York-based Egyptian Dina Amer, and executive produced by three Oscar winners- Spike Lee, Riz Ahmed and Spike Jonze. This would be a more international choice. But in a weak year, my money is on Hamed and “Kira & El Gin”.

  ETHIOPIA- “Among Us Women” Ethiopia has only sent one film in the past six years and they don’t have any fiction features on the film festival circuit this year. If they do submit, I predict it will be documentary “Among Us Women”, following a pregnant farmer living in a rural village as she deals with medical bureaucracy at her local clinic and the trusted midwife in her local community. The film has German and Ethiopian co-directors, which means it would likely be eligible.

  GHANA- “Public Toilet Africa” I hate predicting the same film two years in a row, but quirky road-movie-cum-revenge-tale “Public Toilet Africa” doesn’t seem to have premiered in Ghana since premiering at Locarno 2021, although it secured a berth at the 2022 SXSW in the United States. Ghana has only sent a film once (in 2019) and the oddly titled “Toilet” (in a mix of Twi, Polish and English) would be a great second one. Critics say it’s a bit of a mess, with a plot all over the place but it paints a fascinating picture of Ghana.

  IRAN- “Leila’s Brothers” Iran has a wide-open race with seven contenders from the three big festivals (Cannes, Berlin and Venice) and four different films that dominated the Fajr Film Festival awards. With a recent crackdown on filmmakers at home, I think they’re going to want to pick someone with impeccable revolutionary credentials (Asghar Farhadi criticized the government last year during the Oscar campaign). I’m predicting they choose 3-hour drama “Leila’s Brothers”, starring Taraneh Alidoosti as a woman fed up with being taken advantage of by her dysfunctional family. It competed in Cannes and has gotten very strong reviews from critics. Young director Saeed Roustayi swept the Fajr Film Awards in 2016, meaning he probably follows the rules. Two films by previously selected directors- “Beyond the Wall” (Venice) by the director of “No Date No Signature” and “Night Guardian” (Fajr; Best Director) by the director of their 2005 and 2014 submissions- will be very strong competitors. Rounding out the Top Five choices for Iran: “Last Snow (Fajr; Jury Prize), a village drama about the mysterious disappearance of a young woman, and “Without Her” (Venice Horizons and Fajr; Best Actress), a mystery about a woman seeking to help an apparent amnesiac. Dark horse: I don’t think “World War III”, set to premiere in Venice, will be eligible until next year but this weighty drama could contend if it gets a late release. Family drama “Hit the Road”, probably the most acclaimed Iranian film of the year, won’t be considered since it was directed by the son of imprisoned, dissident director Jafar Panahi.

  IRAQ- “Our River, Our Sky” One of last year’s great surprises was the return of Iraq, with the riveting thriller “Europa”…perhaps not in my Top 5 but one of the most original and interesting films in last year's competition. Iraq basically runs itself as two completely separate countries- the Arab south and the autonomous Kurdish north. Most (6 of 10) of their Oscar submissions have come from the Kurdish region. This year, the Kurds are probably out of luck. “Goodnight Soldier”, about two feuding families whose kids fall in love, has gotten good reviews in the West but has been reviled among many Kurds for sexually explicit scenes. “The Exam”, a moral dilemma drama about a woman who wants to help her sister cheat on a school exam to avoid an arranged marriage, was my pick last year…but I think it was released too early. From the Arab side, we have “Our River, Our Sky” (Sarajevo 2021) as well as “Tale of a Purple House” (Locarno 2022), a 3-hour intellectual documentary which I doubt will be released in cinemas. So, I think “Our River”, about the chaos of Iraq’s civil war circa 2006, will get this. That would make 74-year old London-based Maysoon Pachachi the first woman ever to represent Iraq. A fifth option- “The Hanging Gardens”- will premiere at Venice but probably won’t make it to cinemas by November 30.

  ISRAEL- “Karaoke” Israel just announced the 27 films eligible for the Ophir Awards. As always, the winner of Best Picture will represent Israel at the Oscars (as long as it’s not in English). That means to predict the Ophir winner, you first need to predict what will be nominated. It’s a very strong list! I’m pretty sure that “35 Downhill” (Winner, Best Israeli film, Jerusalem 2022), “Karaoke” (Tribeca), “June Zero”, and the upcoming family drama “The Silence” will make the cut, and will be the four main contenders to win the Ophir. The final slot is likely to go to Bérénice Bejo’s “Shake Your Cares Away” (Winner, Best Israeli film, Jerusalem 2021) although it could just as easily go to animated film “Where is Anne Frank?” (by the director of “Waltz with Bashir”), “Concerned Citizen” (Berlin), urban drama “Children of Nobody”….or possibly even English-language comedy “My Neighbor Adolf” (which looks like a remake of “Mr. Kaplan” and wouldn’t be eligible to go to the Oscars). So which of those potential nominees will go to the Oscars? My money is on “Karaoke” which has the best reviews, a sizable star (Lior Ashkenazi) and a plot that will be relatable to the older Oscar voters that have historically dominated the voting (though far less than before). "Karaoke" is a comedy-drama about a dull 60-something couple who find a new spark in life when they meet a fascinating new neighbor (Ashkenazi). “June Zero” is also an extremely strong contender, but I wonder if having an American director will make less people vote for it. If it’s not “Karaoke”, I’m pretty sure it will be the as-yet unseen “The Silence” (Hashtika), whose director almost went to the Oscars in 2006 but lost in a tiebreaker vote. 

  JORDAN- “The Alleys” Last year, Jordan cowardly withdrew the provocative “Amina” in response to a social media campaign of people condemning the film, who clearly hadn’t seen it. This year, Jordan has a really difficult decision with four contenders, namely “The Alleys” (Locarno 2021), “Daughters of Abdul-Rahman” (Cairo), “Farha” (Toronto/Busan 2021) and “Salma’s Home” (Netflix). That’s a lot of movies for Jordan! Buzz for “Farha” has faded, but I think the other three stand a great chance of being selected. I am predicting urban thriller “The Alleys”, about the various denizens of a conservative Amman neighborhood, because reviews have been great and because it comes from the screenwriter of Jordanian Oscar nominee “Theeb”. “Daughters of Abdul-Rahman”, a lighter film about four estranged sisters looking for their missing father, is my second pick. As far as I know, only “Alleys” has been released in theatres, although the Netflix release of "Salma” may also count.  

  KENYA- “Gaza” Kenya doesn’t have much of anything this year and I’ve no idea what they’re going to send. Unconventional love story “Blind Love” was released too early, and “Kamtupe”, about a government official who is robbed of a laptop with government secrets, looks too commercial. “Zuena”, about a woman returning to her home village, is a spare 60 minutes, and “Ayaanle”, a thriller about the country’s Somali minority, is more likely to be selected by Somalia. “Gaza” makes more sense but according to IMDB, it’s opening one day after the deadline. This film about a woman who’s just been released from prison could be a good option with a qualifying release one day early.

  KUWAIT- “Akh” Kuwait hasn’t sent a film since 1978, a longer gap than any of the 128 countries that have competed over the years. They obviously won’t send anything this year. According to IMDB, their only option is “Akh”, a horror film loosely based on Cain and Abel. It doesn’t seem to have screened anywhere yet.

  LEBANON- “Memory Box” It’s a case of deja vu! Lebanon had a banner year at international film festivals last year, while this year they’ve mostly been absent. However, three of their films from last year- “Memory Box” (Berlin, Main Competition), “Death of a Virgin and the Sin of Not Living” (Berlin Panorama), and “The Sea Ahead” (Cannes, UCR)- all debuted in Lebanese cinemas in 2022. All three have gotten pretty great reviews, although it’s “Memory Box” that has seen the most festival play and attention. It’s about three women linked by a mysterious box of audiotapes and other memorabilia. I’d love to see comedy-drama “Death of a Virgin” make it- it's about four teenagers losing their virginity to a prostitute- but it’s probably out of luck this year. Lebanon does sometimes like to pick a brand-new film…”Beirut Hold ‘Em ” (starring Saleh Bakri) and “The Anger” could contend but probably not against these heavy hitter festival films. "Dirty Difficult Dangerous" will premiere in Venice but won't be eligible until next year. 

  LESOTHO- Nothing The tiny Kingdom of Lesotho sent “This Is Not a Burial, It's a Resurrection” in 2020 but I don’t think they have had anything eligible since. At their local film festival in December 2021, a film called “Quarantine” won Best Lesotho Film, but there’s no information about it online and I’d imagine it’s probably a short film.

  MALAWI- “Sorry to My Mother” Malawi sent a surprise entry last year. The only film I know of this year is low-budget melodrama “Sorry to My Mother”, which premiered in April 2022. Production values don’t look up to Oscar standards, but this is all they’ve got.

  MAURITANIA- “The Perfumed Hill” Abderrahmane Sissako got a well-deserved Oscar nomination for Mauritania’s only Oscar entry “Timbuktu” way back in 2014/2015. It’s long been assumed that Sissako’s next film would be Mauritania’s second Oscar entry, but he hasn’t made a feature since (he has been making short films, and recently directed a theatrical opera in Paris). As of April 2022, Sissako is in post-production on “The Perfumed Hill”, a drama set amidst the African community in Guangzhou, China. Completion of the film has been delayed due to COVID and I’m not sure if it will premiere in 2022 or 2023. Because Mauritania has been absent longer than five years, they’ll have to get AMPAS authorization for a new committee. 

  MOROCCO- “The Blue Caftan” Like Georgia and Pakistan, Morocco has to decide whether to send their best film of the year…despite its LGBT themes. “The Blue Caftan” is widely recognized as the best Moroccan film of the year. It won the FIPRESCI prize this year at Un Certain Regard at Cannes, it's produced by Morocco’s most well-known director (Nabil Ayouch, who has repped Morocco a record five times), it has a well-known cast (Lubna Azabal and Saleh Bakri) and director Maryam Touzani has represented Morocco once before. But I worry that the theme of a wife dealing with a closeted gay husband may be too much for Morocco, where homosexuality is illegal. However, the film is promoted on the Centre Cinematographique Marocain (CCM) website, and they don’t have any other really strong candidate….My Moroccan friend says it was widely publicized that the film "won an award at Cannes" without talking too much about the gay stuff. So I’m predicting they (quietly) send it. Perhaps they won’t make an announcement and it will just appear on the list? If they’re too shy, they’ll probably send “Life Suits Me Well” (Tallinn), about a man who returns to his hometown after being diagnosed with a fatal illness. Dark horses: “Collapsed Walls” premiered this summer, while feminist adventure “Queens” will close out Venice Critics Week (but Moroccan movies take forever to play in cinemas so it probably won’t premiere in time). Let’s be optimistic and predict “Caftan”. 

  MOZAMBIQUE- “Maputo Nakuzandza” In 2017, Mozambique became the first country in Portuguese-speaking Africa to send a film to the Oscars, with the surprisingly good “Train of Salt and Sugar”. I doubt they’ll send anything this year but if they do, it will be “Maputo Nakuzandza” (Maputo, I Love You), a 60-minute “film-poem” following a variety of characters in the Mozambican capital, directed by Brazilian Ariadine Zampaulo (“Train” was also directed by a Brazilian). 

  NIGER- Nothing Niger sent a film to the Oscars once in 2018. An acclaimed documentary by a female filmmaker, “Zinder”, appeared at several doc-centered festivals in 2021, and premiered at home in Summer 2021. However, I don’t think they have anything this year. 

  NIGERIA- “The King’s Horseman” Nigeria had an Oscar committee approved in 2014, but they’ve only sent one eligible film since then. Most years, including last year, they launch a call for submissions and then declare that none of their submissions were eligible.  If they enter, I see three main possibilities. Horror anthology “Juju Stories” premiered in Locarno 2021 and debuted in Nigerian theatres in January 2022. This looks like a really fun movie, and the trailer appears to be slightly more than 50% in Pidgin English or another African language. Yoruba-language “King of Thieves”, reportedly the most watched African film since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, is a genre-defying period action movie set in a fictional African kingdom, complete with magic, warriors, folklore and melodrama. Culturally, very, very Nigerian. But thanks to the power of Netflix and the prestigious Toronto Film Festival, I think this will go to “The King’s Horseman”, based on a true story from the 1940s in which a respected King’s courtier is expected to commit ritual suicide after the death of the King….but unsurprisingly doesn’t wish to die just yet. 

  PALESTINE- “Mediterranean Fever” Cineuropa calls this “a delightful comedy about depression.” Premiering at Cannes Un Certain Regard, this comedy about the unlikely friendship between a depressed writer and a con artist is probably Palestine’s best (and only) option this year. I don’t think Hany Abu Assad’s “Huda’s Salon” ever premiered in Palestine and anyway, Palestinians protested that the film had too much nudity. Dark horse: Michael Winterbottom’s Gaza documentary “11 Days in May” has a Palestinian co-director…but with Kate Winslet narrating, it probably has too much English. "A Gaza Weekend" will premiere in Toronto and will likely be eligible next year. 

  SAUDI ARABIA- “Quareer” The Saudi Academy has shown itself to be partial to films about strong women (probably partially because of the propaganda value). So with “Quareer”, a provocative anthology of short films by young, female directors, winning Best Film at the Saudi Film Festival, I think this will be an easy win. If not, expect it to be “Route 10”, a rare Saudi thriller about a brother and sister running into all kinds of trouble when they drive cross-country across the Saudi desert after their flight is canceled. 

  SENEGAL- “Saloum” Ditto Ghana. I hate to predict the same film twice in a row, but midnight movie favorite “Saloum”, a unique African horror film set in a remote region of Guinea-Bissau, is finally premiering in Senegal in August 2022, after nearly a year on the film festival circuit after its Toronto premiere in 2021. It’s great to have genre films competing, so here’s hoping Senegal enters.

  SOMALIA- “Ayaanle” A committee in exile formed last year to send the excellent “Gravedigger’s Wife” to the Oscars. Due to Somalia’s security situation, the film was actually made in Djibouti with a cast of Somali émigrés. This year, they could send “Ayaanle”, a Kenyan thriller made by Nairobi-based Somalian director Ahmed Farah and starring Barkhad Abdirahman, an ethnic Somali from Kenya who has appeared in small roles in films like “Captain Phillips”. It’s probably a majority Kenyan production (so Kenya could also send it) and it has quite a lot of English….So, not sure if it will be eligible.

 SOUTH AFRICA- "Good Madam" I honestly have no idea what South Africa will send this year. The winner of Best South African Film at the Durban Film Festival- period drama “1960”- is in English. The trailers for contenders like “Two Thirds of a Man” (Durban), “You’re My Favorite Place” (also Durban; directed by Jahmil XT Qubeka, who repped South Africa in 2018 and 2019) and “Indemnity” are roughly half in English so I have no idea if they’re eligible. 2021 releases “Good Madam” (Toronto) and “Hotel on the Koppies” (Rotterdam) seem to meet the language requirement but I can’t find their release dates anywhere, so again I'm not sure if they're eligible. Lesbian drama “Valley of A Thousand Hills” (in Zulu) is an option that could potentially follow in the steps of the shortlisted “The Wound”. I have a feeling South Africa is going to pick something surprising that I’ve never heard of- perhaps a late 2022 release. But for now, I’m predicting horror-drama “Good Madam” (primarily in Xhosa), about a black woman working as a caretaker for an elderly white lady in what may or may not be a haunted house.

  SUDAN- “The Dam” Sudan made an acclaimed debut in 2020 with “You Will Die at 20”…I’m still trying to figure out the ending. This year, they could potentially submit “The Dam”, which competed for the Camera d’Or at the 2022 Cannes Film Festival. However, the film’s pro-revolution credentials (Sudan’s democratic revolution was overthrown in a counter-revolution in October 2021) and the fact that the director is Lebanese and the writers are French could pose insurmountable obstacles.

 SYRIA- “Nezouh” Syria submitted a film just once in 2017, when they sent a documentary selected by an opposition-backed committee in exile.  This is the last year they can submit without getting re-approved by AMPAS. They do have a really intriguing film premiering at Venice this year- “Nezouh”- about a family trying to make the heartbreaking decision whether to stay in Syria during the war, or flee as refugees. There’s also “Our Memory Belongs to Us”, a documentary about three activists in France who reunite ten years after fleeing Syria.

  TANZANIA- “Tug of War” Tanzania submitted a film over twenty years ago in 2001 but never entered again. This year, they have their best opportunity in two decades to send a film. The Swahili-language “Tug of War”, about the forbidden romance between a revolutionary young man and a Tanzanian-Indian girl fleeing an unwanted marriage, played at Seattle (winning two awards), Palm Springs and Toronto, which is huge for a Tanzanian film. Most importantly, it won the two major Best Picture awards at the Zanzibar International Film Festival, the most important film festival in East Africa. Here’s hoping they return. 

 TUNISIA- “Harka” Tunisia had three films prominently featured at Cannes this year- crime thriller “Ashkal” and rural drama “Under the Fig Trees”  were in Director’s Fortnight, while “Harka” won one of the two acting awards (alongside Vicky Krieps) in Un Certain Regard. They also have two carryovers from last year- “Streams” (Locarno) and “Insurrection” (Carthage, their national film festival). It’s tough to predict because the two 2021 films have both been released in Tunisian cinemas, while the three 2022 Cannes titles haven’t. According to this year’s rules, they could qualify with a release in France (or somewhere else) but they aren’t scheduled to do so until after this year’s November 30 deadline.  I’m predicting “Harka”, about a young man disillusioned by the Arab Spring forced to take care of his sisters after his father’s death, but that depends whether it can get a qualifying release and w. If not, it will probably be “Insurrection”. Dark horse: Ridha Behi (“Satin Rouge”) has a new film with Claudia Cardinale- “Island of Forgiveness”, currently in post-production.

 TURKEY- “Bandirma Missile Club” In the past twelve years, Turkey has picked three films by Semih Kaplanoğlu (I fell asleep during two and didn’t see the third) and three 3-hour ordeals by Nuri Bilge Ceylan. But both these directors have their next films coming out in 2023, so Turkey will be forced to pick something else. It’s a wide open race with the Turkish winners of the country’s three main festivals- “Anatolian Leopard” (Ankara), “Brother’s Keeper” (Antalya) and “The List of Those Who Love Me” (Istanbul) facing off against two new films by previously selected directors- “Godspeed” and “A“Dumlupinar”- a regional box-office smash (“Bergen”), a festival darling (“Burning Days”, Cannes Un Certain Regard), two buzzy upcoming releases (“Heartsong” on Netflix, and “Bandirma Missile Club”) and two films that just have good reviews (“Between Two Dawns” and “A Night in Four Parts”). That’s eleven potential candidates! The Turkish Academy tends to waver between grim, auteur arthouse (Ceylan and Kaplanoğlu, but also “Sivas”, “Cold of Kalandar” and “Where the Fire Burns”….so 9 of the past 12 years) and “pull at your heartstrings” sentimental box-office hits (“Ayla” and “Miracle in Cell #7”). Only once have they deviated from this formula when they picked a splashy, historical costume drama in 2013. Most people are predicting box-office smash biopic “Bergen”, about a famed Turkish singer, Cannes drama “Burning Days”, or “Anatolian Leopard” (Toronto 2021), about intrigue at a local zoo. And all of them are possible. But the popular “Bergen” is not at all what Turkey sends; reviews for “Leopard” aren’t completely positive, and “Burning Days”, which was nominated for the Queer Palm, may have uncomfortable political parallels with the Turkish dictatorship. If they want a nomination, they should send “Brother’s Keeper” (Berlin 2021), easily the most acclaimed Turkish film of the year, but I can’t see this Academy sending a film that’s half in Kurdish. I’m predicting they send the upcoming “Bandirma Missile Club”, a true story about a Turkish high-school club that produced rockets that competed with the latest U.S. and Soviet technology of the time. Not the smartest choice, but it’s my prediction. I have “Burning Days” (Cannes), about political corruption seeking to influence a murder investigation, in second place, “Between Two Dawns”, a moral dilemma drama, in third, submarine thriller “Dumlupinar” in fourth, “A Night in Four Parts” in fifth and critical favorite “Brother’s Keeper” in sixth. I’m really curious how this one will turn out!

  YEMEN- “The Burdened” War-torn Yemen has sent movies to the Oscars twice, most recently with comedy-drama “10 Days Before the Wedding”, one of the most delightful submissions I’ve seen in recent memory. Director Amr Gamal is in post-production with his second film- abortion drama “The Burdened”- which won a special grant in Karlovy Vary last month. I don’t think it will be released in time (all Yemeni cinemas are closed and they had to screen his last film in makeshift wedding halls) but it will probably be Yemen’s next submission. 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

  

 Four other countries in the region- Namibia (2021), Rwanda (2016), Uganda (2019) and the United Arab Emirates (2017)- have gotten official approval from AMPAS to send films to the Oscars, but haven’t sent any.  RWANDA is the most likely debutante this year, with “Father’s Day”, telling three interconnected stories, playing at Berlin Encounters. “Neptune Frost”, a queer musical, played at Cannes last year but that hardly seems likely. UGANDA is the largest African country (by population) that has never entered the race and I think they may send “Tembele” (the trailer looks really good!), a thriller about a garbage man who loses his son, which just won Best Director at the national Film Festival. Not sure if it’s English though. I’ve heard that the UAE selection committee is defunct and not meeting anymore; they had a major action film last year (“The Ambush”) and didn’t send it; this year I just know about “Dalma”, about a woman who angers her whole community through her business ambition. I don’t know that NAMIBIA has anything eligible.

ANGOLA is most likely to form a committee for the first time; they have not one but two films at Locarno (?!)- “Tommy Guns” and “Our Lady of the Chinese Shop”. “Tommy Guns”, which has an Angola-born Portuguese director, is appearing in the more prestigious International Competition section, so that could be Angola’s first-ever submission.  ZAMBIA’s “Maria Kristu: The Buumba Story”, about how religion contributes to the marginalization of women and girls, has played at a lot of African film festivals…The trailer is about 60% in Bemba and 40% in English. I heard that the CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC unsuccessfully tried to submit “Oka!” in 2011, so maybe they’ll try again with Berlinale documentary “We Students!”. Less likely “Biye Retour” from tiny MAURITIUS.