Oscar International Film Predictions for Latin America, North America and the Caribbean

And here are my predictions for the countries of The Americas:

1.      Argentina- “El jockey” (Kill the Jockey) Argentina doesn’t always choose the front runner but they rarely choose a surprise…so it would seem that their submission is likely to be one of three big new releases- “The Blue Star” (San Sebastian 2023), “El Jockey” (set to premiere in Venice) and “Simon of the Mountain” (Cannes). The Spanish director of “Blue Star” has spoken publicly of his hope that the film will go to the Oscars, but it seems more likely to aim for Spain. “Simon” got good reviews at Cannes for its story of a youth with mental/cognitive disabilities…but it would have to arrange a qualifying release since it’s scheduled to premiere in Argentinian cinemas in October. That means the upcoming “El Jockey”, whose director was selected in 2018 for “El angel”, is automatically the favorite. Starring Nahuel Perez Biscayart, it’s about a male and female jockey fleeing a mob boss. Less likely: “Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” (SXSW 2023), “The Freshly Cut Grass” (Tribeca), “A Ravaging Wind”, documentary “The Trial” (Berlinale 2023), and “Vera and the Pleasure of Others” (San Sebastian). Of these, the acclaimed 3-hour “The Trial” (El juicio) seems most likely even though I’ve never heard of Argentina considering a doc before. Likely out: A lot of people were talking about Lucia Puenzo’s “Electrophilia” last year but reviews were not great….

2.      Bolivia- “Mano propia” I lived in Bolivia 2022-2024 and can honestly say that Bolivian cinema makes better movies with fewer resources than its wealthier neighbors. Movies like “Tu Me Manques” and “Utama” deserved far more consideration from AMPAS...They screwed up, because these films deserved at least a shortlist spot. Bolivia has had a slow movie year so far with only one major national release- “Old Soldiers” (Viejos soldados), a big war movie about the Chaco War by Jorge Sanjines…a respected 87-year old director who helped establish Bolivian cinema in the 1960s. Last I heard, there were no English subtitles…the same thing that doomed his film that was going to be submitted in 2012. I’m pretty sure Bolivia will send “Mano propia” by Gory Patino who represented Bolivia in 2018 with the wonderful thriller “Muralla” and would have again in 2022 (for "Pseudo") if “Utama” hadn’t been the best-reviewed Bolivian film in decades. “Mano propia”, a thriller about vigilante justice, is set to premiere a few days before the deadline. Also eligible: “Nicola” is a fantastic new indie LGBT documentary that opened during Pride Month and "An Embrace from the Chaco", is a rare Bolivian animated film….but they're probably too small to compete against these two big directors.

 

3.      Brazil- “I’m Still Here” In 2024, Brazil had just two films in the Main Competition of major film festivals, and they’re both by very well-respected directors- Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here” (Venice) and Karim Ainouz’s “Motel Destino”. “I’m Still Here”, about an unassuming woman forced into political activism after Brazil’s military regime abducts her husband, is the clear favorite. Salles hasn’t made a fully Brazilian film in 15 years, and “Here” reunites Salles with grande dame Fernanda Montenegro (who will be 95 this year) who he helped to a much-deserved Oscar nomination for “Central Station”. It has also been picked up by Sony Pictures Classics which helps a lot. It’s hard to believe, but Brazil hasn’t been nominated in this category since then and “I’m Still Here” may be their best chance in years. However, Salles refused to submit “Linha de Passe” (his last Brazilian film) to the Oscars saying that it was “a far more complex process than it seems….requiring a dedication of several months”. But “I’m Still Here” could actually win….so I BET he’ll agree to try again. Karim Ainouz’s erotic thriller “Motel Destino” premiered at Cannes and reviews have been good but not Oscar worthy.  I plan to update this when Brazil comes up with their “longlist” of official contenders to see if Salles and Ainouz are in play or not. Other films likely to appear on that list include “Betania”, “Heartless”, “The Hijacking of Flight 375”, “Mussum” and “Power Alley”.

4.      Canada- “Universal Language” The hot word is that Canada is going to go with the quirky “Universal Language”, an odd little film by Anglophone filmmaker Matthew Rankin which reimagines Manitoba as a bilingual province speaking Persian and French. It won the Director’s Fortnight Audience Award at Cannes and has gotten very good reviews. However, Canada’s Academy, which used to be so good at picking nominees, has ignored real contenders (including “Falcon Lake” in 2022 and “Solo” in 2023) for documentaries about non-Canadians, both good (“Rojek”) and not so good (“Eternal Spring”). So, “Language” is not a sure thing. “Kanaval”, about Haitian immigrants, or “Ru”, about Vietnamese immigrats, could threaten, as could upcoming dramas “Shepherd” (by the director of Canada’s 2019 submission) and “Le grand vide”. Dark horses: “1995”, an indie film about a man travelling the world making short films, “Red Rooms”, a thriller that got Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay nominees at the Canadian Screen Awards, and “Who By Fire”, which won the 14+ Best Film award at Berlinale.

5.      Chile- “In Her Place” The frontrunner for Chile is clearly two-time Oscar nominee Maite Alberdi’s first fiction feature, “In Her Place”, based on an acclaimed Chilean novel. The question is whether this legal drama about a secretary working on a sensationalist murder case is eligible. It’s set to be released on Netflix in October – after the Oscar deadline – so Chile would need to do a one-week qualifying release before then...and I'm pretty sure they will. They could also consider Bolivian co-production “The Dog Thief” (which has a Chilean director), “Maybe It's True What They Say About Us” (Quizás es cierto lo que dicen de nosotras) about a mother confronting a cult, abortion drama “Outsider Girls” and constitution documentary “Oasis”. Of these, I think “Outsider Girls” has the best chance to defeat Alberdi. UPDATE: Chile announced a six-film shortlist, which includes "In Her Place" and "Maybe It's True" alongside comedies "History and Geography" and "Bad Habits", thriller "Prison in the Andes" and sci-fi/drama "Analogos". I still think "In Her Place" will win this easily, with "Prison in the Andes" second because it highlights Chile's dictatorship history, and "Maybe It's True" in third. The other three will get participation trophies. 

6.      Colombia- “Skin in Spring” (La piel en primavera) I think Colombia will send “Skin in Spring”, a drama about a mother in Medellin seeking a second chance at love and life. It premiered in Berlin and has slightly warmer reviews than their other major contender from Berlin, “I Saw Three Black Nights”, about an elderly Afro-Bolivian man who encounters a paramilitary group while on an important personal journey. Their other three possibilities so far are “La suprema” (Toronto 2023), about an aspiring female boxer, “Malta” (SXSW 2024), about a Colombian saving money to emigrate to Europe, and “Salt Water”, an LGBT film about an adult who reconnects with the priest who molested him. Dark horses: two upcoming films at Toronto 2024 (“Horizonte” and “Pimpinero”) could premiere in time…but probably won’t. Andres Baiz directed one of Colombia’s best-ever submissions (“Satanas”) in 2007 so I’m very excited to see “Pimpinero”, an exciting new thriller.

7.      Costa Rica - “Memories of a Burning Body” (Memorias de un cuerpo que arde) Costa Rica will probably choose Berlinale Panorama winner “Memories of a Burning Body” (Memorias de un cuerpo que arde), about aging and sexuality among three older women. Central American films rarely win awards at an international level like this. It’s main competition is “Not Only the Bird is Beautiful” (No solo es hermoso el pájaro), a surreal drama about a man looking for a missing woman, which won Best Costa Rican film at the national film festival in July. Dark horse: documentary “Lo que olvidamos” tells the story of a middle-class activist gunned down by police while awaiting trial.

8.      Cuba- “Wild Woman” (La mujer salvaje) Cuba only sends films to the Oscars occasionally. Last year, the film’s “Nelsito’s World” appeared on the unofficial AMPAS list of films. It was assigned to a group of Oscar voters but was never downloaded to the Oscar screening room, and mysteriously disappeared from contention. Not sure what happened there, but Cuba has now been absent the past three years. If they do send a film, it’s almost sure to be “Wild Woman” (Toronto), which won some awards at the national film festival and which shows the influence of social media even in Communist Cuba. In a Cuban “Run Lola Run”-type scenario, a young mother out partying is suddenly thrust onto a quest to find her son and flee her neighborhood when a social media post seeks to incriminate and effectively “cancel” her. It’s one of the Latin American films I most want to see this year. Other possibilities: “Natural Phenomena” and “A Night with the Rolling Stones”.

9.      Dominican Republic – “Boca Chica” The Dominican Republic has a fierce race since all three movies I predicted last year (“La hembrita”, “Aire” and “Boca Chica”) are actually eligible this year, as are the two big winners at the 2024 National Film Awards (“The Art Dealer” and “Freddy”) and a few quirky festival offerings (“Pepe”, “Olivia & the Clouds” and “Bionico’s Bachata”) ….So, this will be a competitive and exciting race for the Dominican Republic. For the second year in a row, I’m predicting “Boca Chica” (Tribeca 2023) about the perils of a 12-year old girl coming-of-age in a tourist town famous for sex tourism. It’s arguably the best-reviewed of the eight contenders and seems to match the style of the films the Dominican Republic usually sends (last year was an outlier; they sent a commercial comedy). The DR often likes to submit its favorite directors again and again, which bodes well for “La hembrita”, “Aire” and “Pepe”.  Although reviews have generally been weak, the Berlin berth and Best Director win for “Pepe” should elevate the surreal hippopotamus drama to runner-up….the animal drama angle worked for “EO”. Dominican Film Awards winner “Freddy”, a biopic of a Dominican comedian, should come third, with Leticia Tonos’ innovative sci-fi drama “Aire” (starring Spanish star Paz Vega) fourth and drama “The Art Dealer” (El vendedor del arte) rounding out the Top 5.

10.  Ecuador- “Behind the Mist” (Al otro lado de la niebla) Ecuador had some bad luck last year. Their Academy had a change of leadership and they informed me that they were still awaiting approval for their new Oscar selection committee when last year’s deadline passed….but they committed to returning in 2024 and have already launched a call for submissions. The frontrunner has to be documentary “Al otro lado de la niebla” about Ecuador’s most famous director (Sebastian Cordero) and Ecuador’s most famous mountaineer on an exhibition to Nepal together. It’s directed by Cordero, who has been selected twice before and it got a local release in January. Their two other options are thriller “2 Days in Quito” and drama “On the Invention of Species”( La Invención de las Especies), about a young girl in the Galapagos Islands.

11.  El Salvador- “Indigo” (Añil) El Salvador is the only Latin American country that has never participated in the Oscars. A Salvadoran co-production represented Honduras a few years ago, and the Salvadoran co-director has a new documentary (“Indigo”) analyzing the use of sexual violence against women in modern Salvadoran history. Also eligible: “Dangerous Desires” (El Placer De Dar Placer), a thriller about a bachelor party gone wrong.

12.  Greenland- “Twice Colonized” Politically part of Europe but geographically part of the Americas, Greenland (pop: 57,000) is the smallest country in the Oscar race. Although they submitted films in 2010 and 2012, they haven’t entered the race in over a decade. Some people are talking about “Kalak” (San Sebastian) a film about sexual trauma that was made in Greenland and is clearly about Greenlandic culture….but made by a Swedish director, starring a Norwegian lead actor, and featuring a mostly Danish crew. I’m not sure it would meet the nationality requirements, so I’m predicting “Twice Colonized” (Sundance), a documentary about activists fighting for indigenous Greenlandic rights. It’s much more likely to be considered “Greenlandic” (including a co-writer and co-producer).

13.  Guatemala- “Rita” Guatemala got its Oscar committee re-approved by AMPAS around 2015 and they’ve submitted three films since then. Two were made by Jayro Bustamente, including the shortlisted horror-drama “La Llorona”...so it would be foolish to expect Guatemala to submit anything other than Bustamente’s new film, “Rita”, another urban drama tinged with horror and fantasy. It looks great!

14.  Haiti- “Kidnapping Inc.” Haiti has sent films twice but it’s more unstable than usual this year so I doubt they are really thinking about making movies. Actress/director Gessica Geneus directed Haiti’s last submission and she stars in a new movie that was somehow made amidst the violence in Haiti last year- “Kidnapping Inc.”. According to IMDB, crew members were actually kidnapped during the production. I see this comedy-drama as Haiti’s only real option.

15.  Honduras- “Prisionera”  Honduras submitted three films between 2017-2020 but their selection committee appears to be defunct. If they decide to submit, it will probably be “Prisionera”, about a woman who has been kidnapped to a remote forest location.

16.  Mexico- “Pedro Paramo” Mexico is always confusing but I’m predicting they send the ghostly “Pedro Paramo”, which is set to premiere in September in Toronto and then move to Netflix. Starring Tenoch Huerta (“Black Panther 2”) and written by Mateo Gil (who wrote the Oscar-winning “The Sea Inside”), this seems to have the pedigree to represent Mexico which usually picks films with Netflix deals…and very possibly get them another spot on the shortlist (they’ve somehow been shortlisted four years in a row without a single nomination, although I hated three out of four). The high-profile “Paramo” is likely to meet the same fate. “Sujo” (aka “Son of a Hitman”) won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance and probably should be picked instead….will probably come second. A new film by Oscar nominee Carlos Carrera (and the only one I actually want to see) will come third with family telenovela-cum-thriller “Confessions”. Others likely to be on Mexico’s longlist: “Bad Actor” (Tallinn Black Nights), cockfighting thriller “Mi gallo” and Tatiana Huevo’s grandmas & granddaughters documentary “Echo”, revenge drama “The Day Everything Changed”, and, if eligible”, “Mexico 86” by Guatemalan-Belgian director Cesar Diaz. I expected more from Amat Escalante’s Netflix thriller “Lost in the Night” but that got rather poor reviews so it’s out of contention.

17.  Nicaragua- “Patrol”  Nicaragua hasn’t sent a film since 2010, even though they had quite a strong contender two years ago. They won’t send anything this year but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict documentary “Patrol” which has represented Nicaragua at some Latin American festivals this year. It’s about the devastating effect that miners and ranchers are having on a protected area in Nicaragua.

18.  Panama- “God Is A Woman” Last year, Panama joined the “ten films in a row” club (although one submission didn’t make the final list), the hallmark of a regular participant in this category. Four of these ten films were documentaries. If Panama chooses a documentary this year, it’s likely to be “Bila Burba” or “God Is a Woman”, both of which are about the trials of Panama’s indigenous communities. If they want a fiction film, they’ll probably consider “Chacaleria”, a crime drama, and “Despierta Mama”, about a missing girl. My prediction: “God is a Woman” by Franco-Panamanian Andres Peyrot, about the rediscovery of a lost film about Panama’s indgenous Kuna community. Runner-up: “Chacaleria”.

19.  Paraguay- “The Last” (Los ultimos) Paraguay has a fairly easy choice this year and will likely choose environmental documentary “The Last” (IDFA), whose director produced the award-winning “The Heiresses”…probably the closest Paraguay has ever come to the Oscar shortlist. It focuses on deforestation and wildfires in the vulnerable Gran Chaco region. If it doesn’t get a local release, they could send local horror film “Do No Enter” (No entres)….or not send anything at all like in 2019 when they refused to send any of films that were submitted.

  

20.  Peru- “Yana-Wara” Peru’s submission last year- “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli”- was a master-class in tragicomedy….funny, sentimental and sad. The year before, they sent the flawed but supremely original (and devastatingly sad) “Moon Heart”. Peru is one of the reasons I still try to watch all the films each year…even when so many of them aren’t good. Peru’s problem is that their leading films are often released months (or sometimes over a year) after they appear at festivals. So, having a release date on the books is key. That means this year’s two frontrunners are the Spanish-language “Reinas” (Queens) which premiered at Berlinale and will be released in Peru in August, and the Aymara-language “Yana-Wara”, which was released in April, nearly a year after premiering at last year’s Lima Film Festival. The Quechua-language “Daughter of the Moon” (Killapa Wawan) could join them in the unlikely event it gets a local release after its premiere at the Lima Film Festival last week. This is a tough choice….”Yana Wara”, about a respected Aymara elder accused of a mysterious murder, has a great backstory (the director died partway and the film was completed by his uncle) and slightly better reviews…..while “Reinas”, a family drama set amidst Peru’s political chaos in the 1990s, has the festival prestige of Berlin and Locarno. "Reinas" has already been shortlisted by Switzerland, where it appears to be the favorite...and the Peruvian Academy has a history of highlighting Indigenous stories so I’m predicting “Yana-Wara”…but this will be close. Dark horse: “Diogenes”, about two Quechua siblings being raised in a remote mountain area.  Likely eligible next year: “Through Rocks and Cloud” and “Kinra”, which were in this year's Main Competition at Lima, plus “Family Album” and next year’s probable submission “Los indomables”. 

21.  Puerto Rico- “Feet in the Sand” (Pies en la arena) Puerto Rico was uninvited from the Oscars in 2011 which I’ve always found extremely unfair. But last year, they were invited to submit a film to the Spanish Goyas for the first time- where they managed a nomination against more established Latin American countries. Hopefully this means they will be invited to the Oscars again soon. If they were allowed to send a film, it would probably be “Feet in the Sand”, about two illegal immigrants from Cuba and the Dominican Republic who try to build a new life in Puerto Rico. I was going to pick transgender drama “Fisherman’s Daughter” but it seems to be a majority Colombian production. Hope to welcome back Puerto Rico soon!

22.  Suriname- “Mother Suriname” Tiny Dutch-speaking Suriname sent a film just once in 2020. They don’t seem to have any local films this year, but they could consider “Mother Suriname”, a Netherlands-majority documentary by a Dutch director of Surinamese descent, about one hundred years of Surinamese history, as seen through the eyes of her late grandmother.

23.  Uruguay- “Don’t You Let Me Go” This year, Uruguayan filmmakers have worked mostly on minority co-productions but they’ll still definitely send something…and that is most likely to be “Don’t You Let Me Go” (Agarrame fuerte), which won the Nora Ephron award at Tribeca. It’s a spare 70-minute film about grief, as a woman mourns the loss of her best friend…and yet it does this with the sense of humor that the Uruguayan Academy has shown it loves. Co-director Leticia Jorge has been selected before. That’s the clear frontrunner but Uruguay made a surprise choice last year so hostage thriller “7 Bullets” could also be the one. Most Uruguayan productions this year are documentaries , so Back to the Light” (a blind woman) or “Pepe’s Dreams” (a former President) are dark horses. Eligible next year: zombie comedy “Summer Hit”, by the director of Un Certain Regard winner “Whisky”, will premiere Halloween week.

24.  Venezuela- “Mi tia Gilma” Venezuela has one of the most confusing races in Latin America this year…and not just because they’re going through a political crisis as dictator Nicolas Maduro tries to steal national elections held this summer. Despite contentious relations with the USA, the Venezuelan Academy hasn’t failed to send a film since 1996 (their 2005 submission arrived late after a dispute in Caracas)….and they’ve sent some truly wonderful films over the years (the best I’ve seen have been the two from Lorenzo Vigas, but I haven’t seen them all). Despite pre-election tensions, the annual Festival de Cine Venezolano took place as scheduled in June. The three big winners among the 24 candidates were “La sombra del Catire” (14 prizes including Best Picture, Director, Screenplay), “Visceral” (8 prizes including the Jury Prize) and “Mi tia Gilma” (2 prizes including Best First Film). "Catire" is tentatively scheduled to open in october, and “Visceral” is officially scheduled for November (after the September 30 deadline) and "Gilma" doesn't have a domestic release dates. “Children of the Revolution”, a potential contender from last year, has not been given permission to screen in Venezuelan cinemas by CNAC, which picks the Venezuelan nominee. So, what will they send? Maybe hybrid docudrama “Lost Chapters”, about a woman who returns from abroad to take her of her ailing grandmother? Human trafficking drama “Tango Bar”? Or “Hambre”, about two Venezuelans considering whether to migrate?  “Tango Bar” got a domestic release…but will any of the others? I’m certain to get this one wrong, but I’m going to predict Venezuela somehow manages a qualifying release for “Mi tia Gilma”, about a niece trying to help her upper-class aunt after she is brutally beaten by her husband, a senior military official. I have “Tango Bar” in second, mostly because it’s one of the only contenders that has actually been released.

  

Oscar Predictions for the Middle East and Africa

ALGERIA- “Six Feet Over” Algeria took last year off, although they reportedly did form a committee. I’m not sure what happened. Despite Algeria’s strong anti-colonialist stance, the Algerian Academy tends to prefer films made by Algerian-French rather than homegrown directors….which has always struck me as odd. So, I suspect they’ll pick “Six Feet Over”, a drama about an Algerian university student trying to regularize his immigration status in Lyon. It’s a largely French production but director Karim Bensalah is French and Algerian (and Brazilian!).  In second place, there’s mystery “No Harm Done”, about an actress confronted by a series of murders. It’s directed by Merzak Allouache who repped Algeria way back in 1996. Algeria did have a film at Berlinale Panorama- the grotesquely titled period drama “True Chronicles of the Blida Joinville Psychiatric Hospital in the Last Century, when Dr Frantz Fanon Was Head of the Fifth Ward between 1953 and 1956”….And if it premieres in time, I could see them choosing 16^th century period biopic “Sidi Lakhdar Ben Khlouf” about an acclaimed poet. However, they ignored a much bigger period drama last year and poetry always loses something in translation.

BURKINA FASO- “Katanga- The Dance of the Scorpions ” There’s a great article about how Burkina Faso’s Islamic insurgency and recent military coups have affected the country’s status as Africa’s capital of arthouse cinema. Burkina Faso sent the tragically beautiful “Sira” last year (their first submission in over 30 years) which certainly deserved to be among the Final 5 Oscar nominees. This year, director and griot Dani Kouyate has completed his first film in a decade- an African noir version of Shakespeare’s Macbeth. Burkina Faso’s film industry revolves around the bi-annual FESPACO Film Festival which takes place in 2023 and 2025. That’s why local films premiere in odd years so I think “Katanga” is more likely to compete next year…especially since domestic instability has reduced the number of films produced. We’ll see. It would be great to have Burkina Faso as a more regular participant. 

CAMEROON- “Nganu” Cameroon is split into two linguistic areas- a large French-speaking region and a smaller English-speaking region. Since 2020, Cameroon has sent four films by Anglophone directors from the country’s small NorthWest region in the English-speaking part. I suspect they’ll send “Nganu”, which got a Netflix deal, about an abusive husband who joins the army to channel his anger and rage. The director is also from the Northwest and was an actor/producer on one of Cameroon’s previous submissions. Other options include crime drama “Abakwa” (directed by the Assistant Director of another of Cameroon’s previous submissions and who is also a Northwesterner). The director of “Silent Storm” has been picked twice before, but the film looks like it has way too much (standard) English to qualify.

CHAD- Nothing Chad’s premier international director (and former Minister of Culture) Mahamat-Saleh Haroun has sent three of his films to the Oscars since 2002. He hasn’t made a film since “Lingui” (which was very good!) in 2021. I don’t think they have anything eligible.

CONGO-KINSHASA- “Rising Up At Night” Congo hasn’t sent a film since their Oscar debut in 1997…that’s a longer gap than any country in the world, other than Kuwait. Last year would have been a good year to return since Belgian co-production “Omen” likely would have qualified (Belgium sent it instead). This year, a Congolese director competed in Berlinale Panorama with documentary “Rising Up At Night”, about how persistent blackouts and electricity shortages affect ordinary Congolese. 

CÔTE D’IVOIRE- “Gla” The Ivory Coast sent movies in 2015 and 2020 directed by French-Ivorian director Philippe LaCôte. He doesn’t have any films this year (IMDB says he’s working on his English-language debut with Joseph Gordon Levitt and Shailene Woodley) so they’re unlikely to send anything. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Gla”, a French-language horror-drama about a traditional African mask.

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EGYPT- “Flight 404” Egypt usually sends a film though they’ve missed two of the past ten years. The majority of their films have been “arthouse” dramas, though last year they sent a very well-reviewed commercial comedy. This year, they had two films at Cannes sidebars (docudrama “The Brink of Dreams” and comedy-drama “East of Noon”) and it’s just been announced that they’ll have two more films at Venice sidebars this year (“Seeking Haven for Mr. Rambo” and “Perfumed With Mint”). To these options, I would add two films by previously submitted directors (Hani Khalifa’s “Flight 404” and Abu Bakr Shawky’s “Hajjan” from Toronto 2023) plus “Rat Hole”, a drama that just competed in Moscow. I see the three key contenders as “Flight 104”, “Hajjan” and the upcoming “Seeking Haven for Mr. Rambo”. Ultimately, I think the box-office success and strong critical reviews will boost melodrama “Flight 404”, about a pious Egyptian woman who returns to a past she isn’t proud of when confronted with a financial emergency, to be the Egyptian nominee. “Mr. Rambo”, which will premiere in Venice in September, about a man seeking to protect his dog who has been accused by a neighbor of being vicious, could be picked if it gets good reviews…but it won’t have much time to premiere in Egypt by the September 30 deadline. Camel racing Saudi co-production “Hajjan” should also be a strong contender.

ETHIOPIA- “Doka” Ethiopia sent four films between 2010-2019 and then seemingly gave up. Because of the “five-year rule”, it’s my understanding that Ethiopia will have to reapply to AMPAS if they don’t send a film this year. So, I’m hopeful that they send “Doka” , a new drama about a nurse who saves a child during wartime.

GHANA- “Tejiri” Ghana only sent a movie to the Oscars once in 2019 and they’re unlikely to send anything this year. Most of their movies are made in English, although they do have the mistaken identity comedy “Kwame Atta”, which is mostly in Akan and thriller “Tejiri” which repped Ghana at the Zanzibar Film Festival…but appears to have premiered on television.

IRAN- TBD I've honestly no idea what they'll send....I'll fill this in later. 

IRAQ- “1988” Iraq sends some of the most interesting submissions year after year and it’s a shame they haven’t been nominated yet (my personal favorite was “Reseba: The Dark Wind”). With the country more stable, they have sent films eight of the past ten years. This year, they are likely to send “1988”, about the Saddam Hussein regime’s chemical weapon attacks against Kurdish civilians at Halabja. Arabic directors have been chosen three of the past four years, so it is fitting that this year’s contenders are all from the Kurdish north. They could also consider “Transient Happiness”, a family drama about an elderly couple that just got a release on Amazon, “Where is Gilgamesh?”, about a museum guard trying to recover a lost artifact, or “Grief”, a social drama. 

ISRAEL- “Pink Lady” In late July, Israel announced the 30 feature films that would compete for the 2024 Ophir Awards, which essentially doubles as a “longlist” for the Israeli submission (I think there were 28 last year). It’s a pretty obscure list- only one, rap musical “The City”, has more than 40 votes on IMDB…18 out of 30 don’t have any. The key to predicting Israel’s submission is to predict the five Best Picture nominees at the Ophirs. This is almost impossible to do with such a poorly known list but my guesses are “Come Closer” (Tribeca), “EID” (Winner, Best Israeli Film, 2024 Jerusalem Film Festival), “Pink Lady” (Nir Bergman, 1-time winner and 5-time nominee in this category), “Reading Lolita in Tehran” (a Persian-language drama directed by Eran Riklis and starring exiled Iranian actresses Golshifteh Farahani and Zar Amir Ebrahimi) and “Under the Shadow of the Sun”. However, this lineup would be unusual since it would focus on three minority (Bedouin, Persian and Ethiopian) communities. So, “Milk”, “Neither Day Nor Night” and “Soda” are almost equally probable Ophir nominees. You can see a full list of 29 of the 30 eligible Israeli films here (one- Dondi Schwartz's "Absolutely Combative" isn't on IMDB yet). As for the winner, I’m stumped….it’s way too early to tell until these films get screened for critics. But for now, I’m predicting “Pink Lady”, an upcoming drama about an ultra-Orthodox family who are being blackmailed over a homosexual affair. Bergman is a consistent director who hasn’t won in two decades, and women directors have been picked three of the past four years…so their luck has to run out eventually. As runner-up, I have Tribeca First Feature “Come Closer”, a semi-autobiographical drama about the grief of a young woman for the sudden death of her brother. “EID”, about an Arab Bedouin family, should finish a strong third. UPDATE: "Pink Lady" didn't make the list but I got two right- "Come Closer" and "Eid"- plus my alternate "Milk". Also on the list of finalists: "Highway 65" (not a surprise) plus "Halisa" and "Girls Like Us". "Come Closer" got the most nominations so that's my new prediction.  All except "Halisa" also got Best Director nominations, so that's probably the most unlikely.

JORDAN- “The Strangers’ Case” There are always confusing nationality cases in this category and this year, that looks likely to affect Jordan. “The Strangers’ Case” is a well-reviewed film focusing on the international refugee crisis, and how events in places like Syria can eventually affect countries on the other side of the world. Reviews are good, the short film it was based on was shortlisted for an Oscar (it didn’t get nominated) and it got a prestigious berth in the “Berlinale Special” section….where it was credited as a wholly Jordanian production. The problem? The writer/director is American. Contrary to popular belief, films with American directors have been allowed to compete in the past (Angelina Jolie, Josh Kim) but it’s always risky because AMPAS is often inconsistent in its decisions. Still, I think “Strangers” will qualify. If not, they could send “Saleem”, possibly Jordan’s first animated film, or “My Sweet Land”, a documentary about Armenia.

KENYA- “The Battle for Laikipia” Kenya has submitted films seven years in a row….That’s the best record of any country in Sub-Saharan Africa….But for the past three years they have selected local films that weren’t known outside Kenya…and that did not do particularly well with critics. Hopefully this year will be different because they have two strong options. Documentary “The Battle for Laikipia” played at the Sundance Film Festival and focuses on race relations and climate change in rural Kenya. The co-directors are a Greek woman (who got an Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Short) and a Kenyan man. Coming-of-age drama “After the Long Rains” is about a young village girl who aspires to be an actress in Europe. The director is Swiss-Kenyan. This will be difficult but I’m picking “Laikipia” because it has one director who was actually born and raised in Kenya.

KUWAIT- “Honeymoonish”  The conservative Gulf kingdom of Kuwait used to submit films in the 1970s but hasn’t sent a film since 1978….46 years ago. Oddly enough, their best option this year is the frothy rom-com “Honeymoonish” , about a newly married couple who realize how incompatible they are while on their honeymoon. It’s the first-ever Netflix movie from Kuwait. 

LEBANON- “Arzé” Lebanon failed to send a film last year, for the first time since 2012. I found this very surprising…although I just learned that the two films I predicted they would send (“Mother Valley” and “Dirty Difficult Dangerous”) didn’t get a domestic release until 2024. So maybe that’s why? Both appear to be eligible this year. Two other films- “Arzé” and “Valley of Exile”-  will probably help coax Lebanon back to the competition.  It will be difficult to choose between these four but I expect the feminist “Mother Valley” may be too French and “Dirty”, about the relationship between two migrants from Syria and Ethiopia, may not be considered “Lebanese enough”. “Arzé” (Tribeca) about a family confronted by a stolen bicycle, probably has the edge over Syrian refugee drama “Valley of Exile”…although the fact that the latter film was filmed in a refugee camp may tug at Lebanese heartstrings. It will be close!

LESOTHO- Nothing The tiny Kingdom of Lesotho submitted festival darling “This Is a Burial, Not a Resurrection” during the pandemic in 2020….but they haven’t produced any feature films since. We’ll probably have to wait until director Lemohang Jeremiah Mosese makes his next movie to see Lesotho back.

MALAWI- “16 Barz: King of Bawo” Malawi has sent dramas twice since 2018. This year, they could coming-of-age musical “16 Barz: King of Bawo”, which has the same screenwriter of their last submission.

MAURITANIA- “Black Tea”  Mauritania submitted the brilliant “Timbuktu” as their first-ever Oscar submission way back in 2014….and it got a well-deserved Oscar nomination. Director Abderrahmane Sissako took ten years to make his next movie…and “Black Tea” finally came out in 2024 after years of production delays. The film- about Africans in China- premiered at Berlinale but it has not gotten great reviews so it’s unclear if Mauritania will take the time to send it or not. I think it looks quite interesting.  

MOROCCO- “Hounds” For the second year in a row, I’m predicting father-son thriller and 2023 Cannes Un Certain Regard Jury Prize winner “Hounds”, which premiered in Morocco in January 2024. Another movie about Moroccan criminals from Cannes 2023- “Deserts”- is also eligible this year. “Deserts” is a lighter film by a previous submitted director but reviews for “Hounds” are better. Both got competition berths at the Marrakech International Film Festival, alongside last year’s submission “Mother of All Lies”. Also possible: coming-of-age drama “Fez Summer ‘55” and Moroccan Film Festival winner “My Father Is Not Dead”. Other options seem unlikely- sci-fi drama “Animalia” and fever-dream “Birdland” aren’t universally liked, and “Moroccan Badass Girl” and “Coup de tampon” don’t seem serious enough…As one final note, Morocco never fails to send a Nabyl Ayouch movie but his latest Cannes drama “Everybody Loves Touda” is scheduled to screen in Moroccan cinemas at the end of the year….though they could technically arrange a qualifying release.

MOZAMBIQUE- “The Nights Still Smell of Gunpowder” Mozambique sent a film in 2017 and they are still the only Portuguese-speaking country in Africa to do so. This year, they actually have two interesting contenders that could be their second entry. Documentary “The Nights Still Smell of Gunpowder” screened at Berlinale Forum this year. It’s about one family’s memories of Mozambique’s brutal 15-year civil war. Arthouse drama “Hidden Era” played at the Tribeca Film Festival, and is about a local artist trying to provide for his family in the capital, Maputo. I’d love Mozambique to enter. I’d give “Nights” the edge because the director is Mozambican, while “Hidden Era” is directed by a Berlin-based Colombian. (though Mozambique’s first submission was directed by a Brazilian!).

NAMIBIA- “Lukas” Namibia sent a film to the Oscars for the first time last year with the surreal Lynchian mystery “Under the Hanging Tree” which I really liked…though I couldn’t really articulate  why. This year, they’re likely to submit “Lukas”, directed by a Frenchman who has lived in Namibia for over 25 years. It’s a drama in Afrikaans about a kid living on the streets of Windhoek, the capital. Director Philippe Talavera is probably most famous for directing Namibia’s first LGBT film a few years back.

NIGER- “2G” Niger sent a film just once in 2018. I don’t think they have anything eligible but documentary “2G”, made by an Algerian-Swiss director in Niger, follows the lives of four human smugglers and their lives in the barren Sahara Desert.

NIGERIA- “Freedom Way” Nigeria, home to Africa’s largest (though not best) film industry, has sent three films to the Oscars since 2019. After the disqualification of “Lionheart”, AMPAS decided that films can be sent in Pidgin English (which is ironic because “Lionheart” was in standard English so it seems like it wouldn’t have qualified anyway). Since then, Cameroon and Nigeria have benefited from this new rule…but it’s still a gray area. This year, “Freedom Way”, a new arthouse drama emulating “Crash”, will premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, but I’m not confident it will meet the language requirements as it’s advertised as being in English…but it’s still Nigeria’s best chance. If it’s not eligible, I predict they’ll send “Lakatabu (The Monster)”, a crime thriller mixed with supernatural mysticism in Yoruba…it’s much more in the traditional Nollywood mold. It’s also possible they’ll vote not to send anything (like in 2021 and 2022) …but there’s also Ibo-language Netflix funeral drama “Afamefuna” and Yoruba-language wedding comedy “Ajosepo”.

PALESTINE- “No Other Land” With no end in sight to the war in Palestine, the Palestinian Academy (which I understand is affiliated with the Palestinian Ministry of Culture) is going to look for a film that will rally support to the Palestinian cause…so documentaries will have the advantage. The obvious choice would be “No Other Land” (Berlin), in which a collective of Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers work together to highlight military atrocities in the West Bank. It has very good reviews and shows interethnic cooperation. Another doc, “From Ground Zero” features a compilation of 22 amateur short films shot in Gaza during this year’s conflict. It would also check this box. I personally prefer fiction features and Palestine has two great ones- “To A Land Unknown” (Cannes), about two Palestinian refugees in Greece, and “The Teacher” (Toronto), by Oscar-nominated Palestinian-British director Farah Nabulsi. If selected, “The Teacher” will have AMPAS getting out the stopwatch because it’s roughly half in English. Dark horse: doc “Life is Beautiful”, about a Palestinian filmmaker who goes away on a one-month work trip only to find he’s unable to return to Gaza for seven years after the borders are closed.  

SAUDI ARABIA- “Norah” Saudi Arabia only legalized cinemas in 2018 but they’ve now sent five films in a row.  They’ve sent a diverse group of seven quirky films, including a bold romantic comedy, a supernatural folk tale,  a feminist political drama, and a Saudi “Wolf of Wall Street”. This would have been unthinkable just a decade ago and I really love watching the Saudi submissions. This year, they have three main contenders- “Hajjan” and “Night Courier” (both from Toronto 2023) and “Norah”, the first Saudi Arabian film to premiere in Cannes Un Certain Regard, where it won a Special Mention. The Saudi Academy has mostly chosen popular commercial films in the last few years, which bodes well for dark, alcohol-fueled comedy “Night Courier”, about Saudi Arabia’s new underground nightlife. But the Cannes label will help “Norah”, about the life of a young woman living in a small  community prior to liberalizing reforms. “Hajjan”, a traditional coming-of-age tale set in the Wadi Rum desert, will likely come in third since it doesn’t have a Saudi director. This is a tough call…both frontrunners are feature debuts that are said to be flawed but very promising. I can’t wait to see both but I’m predicting “Norah”. Possible spoiler: upcoming drama “Hobal”.

SENEGAL- “Dahomey” Senegal has become a regular participant in this category, sending five films in the seven years since they made their Oscar debut, This looks like a fierce two-way race between two previously submitted directors who premiered their films at Berlinale- Mati Diop’s “Dahomey” and Mamadou Dia’s “Demba”. Documentary “Dahomey” won the Golden Bear and Mati Diop was shortlisted for her (overrated) African ghost story “Atlantics”….all but assuring her selection. “Dahomey” follows the repatriation of a number of cultural artifacts from France to Benin.  I actually think drama “Demba”, about a retired Senegalese civil servant dealing with grief and depression would actually do better with AMPAS…but that Golden Bear will make this an uphill battle. It’s only hope is that “Dahomey” doesn’t get a domestic release in Senegal in time.

SOMALIA- “The Village Next to Paradise” Somalia sent a film to the Oscars once in 2021, with the excellent “Gravedigger’s Wife”. This year, they had “The Village Next to Paradise” in the Un Certain Regard section of Cannes. It’s a slice-of-life drama set in a Somalian village made by a first-time Somalian director based in Austria, and it would be a great way to highlight the country’s nascent cinema.

SOUTH AFRICA- “Carissa” No longer a strong contender in this category, South Africa is often handicapped by the fact that its best films are made in English. Last year they sent a documentary about Zulu music and the year before they didn’t send anything at all (for the first time since 2007). This year saw a slight uptick in the number of films in local languages….but most of them don’t have release dates, putting their eligibility at risk. The most prestigious possibility is the Afrikaans-language “Carissa”, about a woman who gets a job with a company that she learns is going to dispossess her family’s ancestral land. It’s due to premiere at Venice Horizons in September and is one of the films without a domestic release date. Among the other possibilities are a trio of films that premiered at the 2024 Durban International Film Festival- comedy-thriller “Sierra’s Gold” (in Afrikaans, English and Zulu), comedy “Month End” (in Tswana), and crime drama “Sonti” (in Sotho).  Of these, the low-budget “Sonti” looks like the gritty sort of film that South Africa usually sends. Less likely: crime drama “Inkabi” (in Zulu) and sports drama “Queenstown Kings” (in Xhosa) look like they premiered on Netflix which is no longer allowed post-pandemic.

SUDAN- Nothing  Last year’s “Goodbye Julia” would probably have been my Oscar winner. The fact that it wasn’t even shortlisted shows how unfair the system is. Sudan is in the middle of a brutal civil war and as far as I know, there are no eligible films this year.

SYRIA- “Under the Sky of Damascus” A selection committee in exile, allied to the national opposition, submitted a documentary to the Oscars once in 2017. They haven’t sent anything since but – if they did – it would probably be feminist documentary “Under the Sky of Damascus” which seeks to expose domestic violence and misogyny in the country. It played at Berlinale 2023.

TANZANIA- “EONII” In 2022, Tanzania submitted a film for the first time in over twenty years, with great fanfare, but then they skipped last year. They have a few options, including EONII, the country’s first-ever sci-fi movie and one that won Best Tanzanian Feature at the 2023 Zanzibar International Film Festival. They could also consider “The Empty Grave” (Berlin), a documentary and German co-production which looks at atrocities committed under colonial rule.  Less likely: “Muhali”, a drama about Zanzibari cultural traditions. We may have a better idea when ZIFF 2024 announces its winners on August 4.

TUNISIA- “Who Do I Belong To?” Tunisia appears to have an easy decision since Tunisian-Canadian director and Oscar Short Film nominee Meryam Joobeur made her feature debut in the Main Competition of the Berlin Film Festival with “Who Do I Belong To?”, an expansion of her Oscar-nominated Short Film “Brotherhood”. It’s about a jihadist returnee from Syria- a subject that Tunisia has often featured in its submissions. If that doesn’t get a Tunisian release, it’s likely to be “The Needle”, about a family disrupted by the birth of an intersex child, or possibly “Behind the Mountains”. Unlikely: Tunisia has three new films at Locarno (“Agora” and “Red Path”) and Venice (“Aicha”)…. but Tunisian films usually take a long time to reach cinemas…expect them to be considered next year.  

TURKEY- “Dormitory” Turkey (Türkiye) has sent three films by Nuri Bilge Ceylan and two by Semih Kaplanoğlu in the past ten years. Since neither has a film in the running this year, it’s a wide open race in Turkey. The other five years, they sent three small arthouse dramas and two commercial movies with cute kids. The Turks have a huge film industry but I’m hearing the frontrunner is the 3-hour melodrama “Life” about a conservative father on the hunt for his daughter fleeing a marriage he arranged. That’s definitely very possible, but I’m predicting “Dormitory”, a coming-of-age drama about a boy sent against his will to an Islamic school by his newly converted father. However, I’m hearing that may be a controversial choice for some reason…Also possible: “Not What You Think”, about three siblings who meet after the death of their father, “Hesitation Wound” (Venice Horizons), about a murder investigation, “The Reeds” (Toronto), about a village dominated by local gangs, and “Sayara”, about a Turkmen immigrant investigating the murder of her sister. Less likely: rock biography “Tears of Cem Karaca” and Ottoman horror-drama “Cadi”, which both have good reviews but are probably a little too commercial for the Turkish Academy.

UGANDA- “Lions of Buganda” Uganda submitted for the first time in 2022 with the low-budget but very entertaining “Tembele”. Recently there has been a growing trend to make movies in indigenous African languages rather than English, including Luganda and Swahili. At this year’s film awards, 3 of the 5 Best Picture nominees were in African languages. The two big winners were “Makula” which won four awards, including Best Picture and Best Director, and “Lions of Buganda” which won three awards, including Best Indigenous Language Film. Ironically “Makula” beat “Lions” for Best Picture while “Lions” beat “Makula” for Best Indigenous Film. Human trafficking melodrama “Makula” has better reviews than “Lions”, but the royal costumes and action scenes look better so that’s my prediction. 

YEMEN- “The First Lecture” Yemen has submitted three excellent films over the years, including last year. This year they have a medium-length film (55 minutes) called “The First Lecture”, about a man wooing a young woman whose sister has cancer. Movies over 40 minutes are eligible so this is probably their only potential submission. An interesting new film- “The Station”- by Oscar-nominated Scottish-Yemeni filmmaker Sara Ishaq could potentially compete for Yemen next year.