FINAL PREDICTIONS
With the shortlist coming out tomorrow, here are my final predictions for the 10-film shortlist. This is the first year with ten semifinalists.....The first seven spots will go to the highest-rated films from the Large Committee. The final three will be selected by an "Elite" committee.
I'd just like to make one final plug for the long-shot entry from BOLIVIA.....Months later, I can't get the finale of this brilliant film out of my head, and a spot in the finals would mean so much for the director, for LGBT cinema and for the Bolivian film industry! I know it's probably not going to make it....but it's so deserving. It's probably more likely the Elite Committee will "affirmative action" an African film (e.g. "Atlantique") onto the list even if they don't deserve it.....but I simply don't see that any of the African submissions are good enough this year (I've only seen four out of 10).
In the end, with three very strong LGBT contenders (Sweden, Bolivia and Peru) all unlikely to get votes from the large committee, I think the Elite Committee will probably nudge the most acclaimed of the three- "And Then We Danced" into the finals.
THE TOP TEN:
1.
SOUTH KOREA- "Parasite"
2.
SPAIN- "Dolor y Gloria" (Pain and Glory)
3.
GERMANY- "System Crasher"
4.
FRANCE- "Les Misérables"
5.
MONGOLIA- "The Steed"
6.
MACEDONIA- "Honeyland" (Elite Save)
7.
NORWAY- "Out Stealing Horses"
8.
BRAZIL- "The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao"
9.
COLOMBIA- "Monos" (Elite Save)
10.
SWEDEN- "And Then We Danced" (Elite Save)
STRONG RUNNER-UPS:
11.
BOLIVIA- "Tu me manques" (I Miss You) (Elite)
12.
RUSSIA- "Beanpole" (Elite)
13.
DENMARK- "Queen of Hearts"
14.
ICELAND- "A White White Day" (Large)
15.
CANADA- "Antigone"
16.
SENEGAL- "Atlantique" (Only if Elite Committee is desperate to include an African film)
17.
POLAND- "Corpus Christi"
18.
ALGERIA- "Papicha" (Elite)
19.
PERU- "Retablo"
20.
UNITED KINGDOM- "The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind"
DARK HORSES
21.
ISRAEL- "Incitement"
22.
IRAN- "Finding Farideh"
23.
ITALY- "The Traitor"
24.
CZECH REPUBLIC- "The Painted Bird" (Only if Elite Committee wants to make a point!)
25.
LUXEMBOURG- "Tel Aviv on Fire"
26.
BULGARIA- "Ága"
27.
ARGENTINA- "La odisea de los Giles"(Heroic Losers)
28.
MEXICO- "La camarista" (The Chambermaid)
29.
HUNGARY- "Those Who Remained"
30.
CAMBODIA- "In the Life of Music"
31.
SLOVAKIA- "Let There Be Light"
32.
AUSTRALIA- "Buoyancy"
I've been lucky to see 20 of the 32 films so I'm in a better place to judge then I usually am.
I've seen many lists predicting "Weathering With You" (Japan), "The Perfect Candidate" (Saudi Arabia), "The Whistlers" (Romania) and "It Must Be Heaven" (Palestine) but I'm pretty sure that none of these have any chance of being on the list tomorrow.....Japanese Anime? Poorly plotted noir comedy? Elia Suleiman? These are not the sort of films that this category honors.....
With the shortlist coming out tomorrow, here are my final predictions for the 10-film shortlist. This is the first year with ten semifinalists.....The first seven spots will go to the highest-rated films from the Large Committee. The final three will be selected by an "Elite" committee.
I'd just like to make one final plug for the long-shot entry from BOLIVIA.....Months later, I can't get the finale of this brilliant film out of my head, and a spot in the finals would mean so much for the director, for LGBT cinema and for the Bolivian film industry! I know it's probably not going to make it....but it's so deserving. It's probably more likely the Elite Committee will "affirmative action" an African film (e.g. "Atlantique") onto the list even if they don't deserve it.....but I simply don't see that any of the African submissions are good enough this year (I've only seen four out of 10).
In the end, with three very strong LGBT contenders (Sweden, Bolivia and Peru) all unlikely to get votes from the large committee, I think the Elite Committee will probably nudge the most acclaimed of the three- "And Then We Danced" into the finals.
THE TOP TEN:
1.
SOUTH KOREA- "Parasite"2.
SPAIN- "Dolor y Gloria" (Pain and Glory)3.
GERMANY- "System Crasher"4.
FRANCE- "Les Misérables"5.
MONGOLIA- "The Steed"6.
MACEDONIA- "Honeyland" (Elite Save)7.
NORWAY- "Out Stealing Horses" 8.
BRAZIL- "The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao"9.
COLOMBIA- "Monos" (Elite Save)10.
SWEDEN- "And Then We Danced" (Elite Save)STRONG RUNNER-UPS:
11.
BOLIVIA- "Tu me manques" (I Miss You) (Elite)12.
RUSSIA- "Beanpole" (Elite)13.
DENMARK- "Queen of Hearts"14.
ICELAND- "A White White Day" (Large)15.
CANADA- "Antigone"16.
SENEGAL- "Atlantique" (Only if Elite Committee is desperate to include an African film)17.
POLAND- "Corpus Christi"18.
ALGERIA- "Papicha" (Elite)19.
PERU- "Retablo" 20.
UNITED KINGDOM- "The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind"DARK HORSES
21.
ISRAEL- "Incitement"22.
IRAN- "Finding Farideh"23.
ITALY- "The Traitor"24.
CZECH REPUBLIC- "The Painted Bird" (Only if Elite Committee wants to make a point!)25.
LUXEMBOURG- "Tel Aviv on Fire"26.
BULGARIA- "Ága"27.
ARGENTINA- "La odisea de los Giles"(Heroic Losers)28.
MEXICO- "La camarista" (The Chambermaid)29.
HUNGARY- "Those Who Remained"30.
CAMBODIA- "In the Life of Music"31.
SLOVAKIA- "Let There Be Light"32.
AUSTRALIA- "Buoyancy"I've been lucky to see 20 of the 32 films so I'm in a better place to judge then I usually am.
I've seen many lists predicting "Weathering With You" (Japan), "The Perfect Candidate" (Saudi Arabia), "The Whistlers" (Romania) and "It Must Be Heaven" (Palestine) but I'm pretty sure that none of these have any chance of being on the list tomorrow.....Japanese Anime? Poorly plotted noir comedy? Elia Suleiman? These are not the sort of films that this category honors.....
2 comments:
I've been able to get 40 films still missing some of the low-key favorites (like Poland, Canada, Algeria, and the Czech Republic, but also Bolivia and Mongolia, which you mention), while I should catch the Saudian submission tonight and Hungarian only next week.
Unfortunately (as I believe you about its quality) none Bolivian nor Mongolian films seem to have a real chance. "I Miss You" have not played at any big (or even middling) film festival and has zero reviews from big cities. Almost the same about "The Steed" which is even absent from Rotten Tomatoes, but did play at San-Diego film festival for example, but it seems to be not enough and if "A White, White Day" will anyhow find its way to the list it would be only through Elite.
My Prediction:
South Korea ("Parasite")
Spain ("Pain and Glory")
Germany ("System Crasher")
Russia ("Beanpole")
Senegal ("Atlantics") - Elite Save (They're usually desperate to include African or Asian film especially if it's acclaimed enough. Only if they don't want to include Netflix film it would be out of the list)
Poland ("Corpus Cristi") - Have not been watched
Brazil ("The Invisible Life of Eurídice Gusmão) - Elite Save
Hungary ("Those Who Remained") - Have not been watched
Norway ("Out Stealing Horses")
Macedonia ("Honeyland) - Elite Save (if they would like to encourage countries to submit documentaries
-------------------------------------------------
11. Sweden (And Then We Danced") - probably only Elite Save (with mild chances for the Large) if they would like to go with LGBT film.
12. Colombia ("Monos") - Elite Save (if neither of the above options is correct)
13. France ("Les Misérables") - Probably just wishful thinking, but I still hope to find France out of this year's list.
14. Japan (" "Weathering With You") - Elite Save (they have included Swiss "My Life as a Zucchini" so I can not see reason, why would not they go with Japanese animation) - Have not been watched.
15. Algeria ("Papicha) - Elite (if they would like to support both African and women rights film) - Have not been watched.
16. Luxembourg ("Tel-Aviv on Fire")
17. Ukraine ("Homeward") - Elite Save (as I have mentioned before if they would like to support other small industry rather than African)
18. Mexico - ("The Chambermaid") - Elite Save (would be higher if not for last year's win)
19. Australia ("Buoyancy") - Have not been watched
20. Czech Republic - ("The Painted Bird") - Have not been watched
My opinion (of course based only on 40 films I have seen till now):
Germany (System Crasher)
Sweden (And Then We Danced)
Russia (Beanpole)
Colombia (Monos)
Ukraine (Homeward)
Norway (Out Stealing Horses)
South Korea (Parasite)
Brazil (The Invisible Life of Eurídice Gusmão)
Mexico (The Chambermaid)
Estonia (Truth and Justice)
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Missing on a bit the Senegalian "Atlantics", Luxembourgish (or rather Israeli) "Tel-Aviv on Fire" and Singaporean "A Land Imagined"
7 out of 10?! Very impressed!
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