FINAL PREDICTIONS
With the shortlist coming out tomorrow, here are my final predictions for the 10-film shortlist. This is the first year with ten semifinalists.....The first seven spots will go to the highest-rated films from the Large Committee. The final three will be selected by an "Elite" committee.
I'd just like to make one final plug for the long-shot entry from BOLIVIA.....Months later, I can't get the finale of this brilliant film out of my head, and a spot in the finals would mean so much for the director, for LGBT cinema and for the Bolivian film industry! I know it's probably not going to make it....but it's so deserving. It's probably more likely the Elite Committee will "affirmative action" an African film (e.g. "Atlantique") onto the list even if they don't deserve it.....but I simply don't see that any of the African submissions are good enough this year (I've only seen four out of 10).
In the end, with three very strong LGBT contenders (Sweden, Bolivia and Peru) all unlikely to get votes from the large committee, I think the Elite Committee will probably nudge the most acclaimed of the three- "And Then We Danced" into the finals.
THE TOP TEN:
1.
SOUTH KOREA- "Parasite"
2.
SPAIN- "Dolor y Gloria" (Pain and Glory)
3.
GERMANY- "System Crasher"
4.
FRANCE- "Les Misérables"
5.
MONGOLIA- "The Steed"
6.
MACEDONIA- "Honeyland" (Elite Save)
7.
NORWAY- "Out Stealing Horses"
8.
BRAZIL- "The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao"
9.
COLOMBIA- "Monos" (Elite Save)
10.
SWEDEN- "And Then We Danced" (Elite Save)
STRONG RUNNER-UPS:
11.
BOLIVIA- "Tu me manques" (I Miss You) (Elite)
12.
RUSSIA- "Beanpole" (Elite)
13.
DENMARK- "Queen of Hearts"
14.
ICELAND- "A White White Day" (Large)
15.
CANADA- "Antigone"
16.
SENEGAL- "Atlantique" (Only if Elite Committee is desperate to include an African film)
17.
POLAND- "Corpus Christi"
18.
ALGERIA- "Papicha" (Elite)
19.
PERU- "Retablo"
20.
UNITED KINGDOM- "The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind"
DARK HORSES
21.
ISRAEL- "Incitement"
22.
IRAN- "Finding Farideh"
23.
ITALY- "The Traitor"
24.
CZECH REPUBLIC- "The Painted Bird" (Only if Elite Committee wants to make a point!)
25.
LUXEMBOURG- "Tel Aviv on Fire"
26.
BULGARIA- "Ága"
27.
ARGENTINA- "La odisea de los Giles"(Heroic Losers)
28.
MEXICO- "La camarista" (The Chambermaid)
29.
HUNGARY- "Those Who Remained"
30.
CAMBODIA- "In the Life of Music"
31.
SLOVAKIA- "Let There Be Light"
32.
AUSTRALIA- "Buoyancy"
I've been lucky to see 20 of the 32 films so I'm in a better place to judge then I usually am.
I've seen many lists predicting "Weathering With You" (Japan), "The Perfect Candidate" (Saudi Arabia), "The Whistlers" (Romania) and "It Must Be Heaven" (Palestine) but I'm pretty sure that none of these have any chance of being on the list tomorrow.....Japanese Anime? Poorly plotted noir comedy? Elia Suleiman? These are not the sort of films that this category honors.....
With the shortlist coming out tomorrow, here are my final predictions for the 10-film shortlist. This is the first year with ten semifinalists.....The first seven spots will go to the highest-rated films from the Large Committee. The final three will be selected by an "Elite" committee.
I'd just like to make one final plug for the long-shot entry from BOLIVIA.....Months later, I can't get the finale of this brilliant film out of my head, and a spot in the finals would mean so much for the director, for LGBT cinema and for the Bolivian film industry! I know it's probably not going to make it....but it's so deserving. It's probably more likely the Elite Committee will "affirmative action" an African film (e.g. "Atlantique") onto the list even if they don't deserve it.....but I simply don't see that any of the African submissions are good enough this year (I've only seen four out of 10).
In the end, with three very strong LGBT contenders (Sweden, Bolivia and Peru) all unlikely to get votes from the large committee, I think the Elite Committee will probably nudge the most acclaimed of the three- "And Then We Danced" into the finals.
THE TOP TEN:
1.
SOUTH KOREA- "Parasite"2.
SPAIN- "Dolor y Gloria" (Pain and Glory)3.
GERMANY- "System Crasher"4.
FRANCE- "Les Misérables"5.
MONGOLIA- "The Steed"6.
MACEDONIA- "Honeyland" (Elite Save)7.
NORWAY- "Out Stealing Horses" 8.
BRAZIL- "The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao"9.
COLOMBIA- "Monos" (Elite Save)10.
SWEDEN- "And Then We Danced" (Elite Save)STRONG RUNNER-UPS:
11.
BOLIVIA- "Tu me manques" (I Miss You) (Elite)12.
RUSSIA- "Beanpole" (Elite)13.
DENMARK- "Queen of Hearts"14.
ICELAND- "A White White Day" (Large)15.
CANADA- "Antigone"16.
SENEGAL- "Atlantique" (Only if Elite Committee is desperate to include an African film)17.
POLAND- "Corpus Christi"18.
ALGERIA- "Papicha" (Elite)19.
PERU- "Retablo" 20.
UNITED KINGDOM- "The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind"DARK HORSES
21.
ISRAEL- "Incitement"22.
IRAN- "Finding Farideh"23.
ITALY- "The Traitor"24.
CZECH REPUBLIC- "The Painted Bird" (Only if Elite Committee wants to make a point!)25.
LUXEMBOURG- "Tel Aviv on Fire"26.
BULGARIA- "Ága"27.
ARGENTINA- "La odisea de los Giles"(Heroic Losers)28.
MEXICO- "La camarista" (The Chambermaid)29.
HUNGARY- "Those Who Remained"30.
CAMBODIA- "In the Life of Music"31.
SLOVAKIA- "Let There Be Light"32.
AUSTRALIA- "Buoyancy"I've been lucky to see 20 of the 32 films so I'm in a better place to judge then I usually am.
I've seen many lists predicting "Weathering With You" (Japan), "The Perfect Candidate" (Saudi Arabia), "The Whistlers" (Romania) and "It Must Be Heaven" (Palestine) but I'm pretty sure that none of these have any chance of being on the list tomorrow.....Japanese Anime? Poorly plotted noir comedy? Elia Suleiman? These are not the sort of films that this category honors.....
