OSCARS 2023: Predictions for Western Europe

 And here's the final batch of 20 countries.....This is cheating a little because two countries (Germany, Ireland and Switzerland) have already announced and two more have announced their shortlists (Netherlands and Spain). 

 AUSTRIA- “Corsage” Austria will probably go with costume biopic “Corsage”, which won Best Actress for Vicky Krieps at Cannes (Un Certain Regard) for playing a distinguished 19^th century Empress. Reviews have been good and it looks like the film will be getting an Oscar-qualifying release in the U.S. to compete in the tech categories. Its main competition comes from “Rimini”, a dramedy about a man returning to his childhood home after the death of his mother. It competed at Berlinale and won Best Picture at the Diagonale Awards for Austrian cinema, over last year's critical darling “Great Freedom”. Both directors have just missed out on representing Austria in past years. Dark horses: WWII revenge drama “Schachten”, Italian-language drama “Vera” (due to premiere in Venice) and “Above the Ground”, about a wealthy young man who becomes a hermit.

 BELGIUM- "Close" Belgium essentially has two separate national film industries, based in the Dutch and French-speaking regions of the country. Films from the smaller French side (Wallonie) have been sent of the Oscars seven of the past ten years and the majority of this year's contenders come from there too. However, almost everyone believes that the Belgian entry will be queer adolescent drama "Close" which won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) at Cannes, from the Flemish side (Flanders). It's definitely the buzziest and most critically acclaimed Belgian film of the year and Lukas Dhont was selected four years ago. But all three Flemish directors selected in the past ten years are back with new films. Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen ("Broken Circle Breakdown") has the critically acclaimed Italian-language "Eight Mountains" (Cannes Jury Prize) while Robin Pront has discotheque drama "Zillion". From the French side, the Brothers Dardennes are back with "Tori and Lokita" (Cannes). They've been selected four times- more than any other Belgian director- but this refugee drama isn't as acclaimed as some of their other films. Other strong Walloon options include "Rebel", a drama about a Muslim family starring Lubna Azabal, "The Damned Don't Cry" (Venice Days) and boxing drama "Final Round". I think it will be "Close"....but "Eight Mountains", and possibly also "Rebel", are going to give it a run for the money. 

 DENMARK- “Forever” Denmark (pop: 6 million) is currently the most successful country in the world, in this category. In twelve years, they’ve been nominated seven times, winning twice. They’ve only failed to make the shortlist three times since then. So, despite their small size, they aim to win every year (and "Flee" would have been a better winner last year than the soporific "Drive My Car"). They’re scheduled to announce a 3-film shortlist on September 5. Although it’s a weak year and I don’t necessarily expect them to be nominated, they have plenty to choose from. I’m predicting the three shortlisted films will be “Forever”, a box-office hit about a family dealing with the unexpected loss of a family member, “Miss Viborg”, a comedy-drama about the intergenerational friendship between two dysfunctional women, and “Rose”, about a woman and her disabled sister on a road trip.  Niels Arden Oplev has been selected in 2008 for “World Apart”, so I was going to predict “Rose”, but “Forever” has gotten such strong notices at home and was selected for a major festival (San Sebastian) so I'm switching. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 19^th century period drama “As In Heaven” (Best Director, San Sebastian), Afghan documentary “Taliban Land”, WWII thriller/sequel “Out of the Darkness” or even music biopic “Bamse” (director Henrik Ruben Genz is Oscar Short Film nominee) on the shortlist. I’ve seen people mention “Holy Spider” (Swedish) and “Godland” (Icelandic), but they don’t meet the nationality requirements, while buzzy Sundance horror flick “Out of the Darkness” is mostly in English.

 FINLAND- “Girl Picture” After winning the Audience Award at Sundance, adolescent drama “Girl Picture” (Berlin, 14+) automatically went to the front of the list for Finland. “The Woodcutter Story” played at Cannes but reviews aren’t strong enough . I think “Girl” is pretty safe, but two previously selected Finnish directors have new films coming out later this year. Aleksi Salmenperä (2004, 2007) made the delightful quirky “Man’s Job” and now has “Bubble”, about a teenage girl who suspects her mother of being involved in a lesbian affair, while Aleksi Mäkelä (1999) has ice hockey drama “Laitapuolen hyökkääjä”. 

 FRANCE- TBD France is the only country in the world to have submitted every year since the creation of the category in 1956. As usual, they have dozens of films to choose from and I'll update this once France announces their shortlist on September 15. 

 GERMANY- “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” WRITTEN BEFORE GERMANY ANNOUNCED (So much for predicting a long shot). Germany announced a 9-film shortlist on August 16^th, containing mostly little-known films. Basic rom-com “Mostly Minimalistic” and “Nico”- a  spare, 79-minute "feel-good" drama about a Muslim nurse trying to becoming a karate champion- aren’t competitive, and early reviews for Til Schweiger’s grief drama “Lieber Kurt” haven’t been kind. Three more films on the list- feminist “Talking about the Weather”, quirky pandemic thriller “We Might as Well be Dead” (both from Berlin), and “No One’s With the Calves” (Locarno 2021), a drama about rural boredom, all appear to be too small to represent a country as important as Germany. So that leaves just three serious contenders- two more Berlin entries- WWII drama “The Forger” and black comedy “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” (winner, Best Actress and Screenplay)- and the hotly anticipated Netflix WWI movie, “All Quiet on the Western Front”, with Daniel Brühl. “Forger”, about a young German Jew living life to the fullest via a fake identity in 1940s Berlin, has positive but not outstanding reviews…but it’s exactly the sort of film that traditionally nets Germany nominations or at least spots on the shortlist (like "Two Lives" or the mediocre “Labyrinth of Lies”). “Rabiye Kurnaz”, about a mild-mannered immigrant housewife who fights to get her dim-witted son released from Guantanamo Bay, has a great U.S. hook (former President Bush likely has few fans in the Academy) and it won second prize at the German Film Awards (winner “Dear Thomas” was on Germany's shortlist last year but wasn’t picked). Right now, "Rabiye" is the frontrunner. But it all depends on the reaction to “All Quiet”, which will premiere in Toronto before moving to Netflix. Told from the perspective of a terrified German soldier, this is serious competition for the much lighter “Rabiye”…and Germany already sent a rare comedy last year. I know that this is probably going to be “All Quiet” but I’m keeping “Rabiye” as my prediction for now until people can actually tell me if that film is any good or not. 

 GREECE - “Magnetic Fields” Many people say that Greece always sends the winner of Best Picture at the Hellenic Film Awards (like Israel) but this isn't true. Although they did send “Digger” last year, that was the first time their selections matched in five years.  Still, it would be foolish to bet against this year’s winner- comedy-drama “Magnetic Fields”- which also won Best Greek Film at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (which used to go to the Oscars automatically). I’m personally hoping they pick “Dodo”, a screwball comedy by a previously selected director about a wealthy family in distress, and the only Greek film at Cannes 2022. Other options: crime drama “Pack of Sheep” and immigrant drama “Holy Emy” both lost Best Picture to “Magnetic Fields”, while the challenging “The City and the City”, about Greece’s lost Jewish community, played at a Berlinale sidebar; “Purgatory” tells seven stories about modern love; Holocaust documentary “The Students of Umberto Primo” looks at Greece under Nazi occupation.

 GREENLAND- “Into the Ice” Greenland, the smallest country in the competition (pop: 60,000) hasn’t sent a film since 2012. I don’t think they have anything eligible but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Into the Ice”, an intriguing Danish documentary (Variety said it made science “sexy”) about the melting ice caps in Greenland. 

 ICELAND- “Beautiful Beings” With two critically acclaimed films eligible, Iceland will have to make the difficult decision of Berlin versus Cannes. Brutal youth drama “Beautiful Beings” premiered at Berlin Panorama while period piece “Godland” premiered in Un Certain Regard at Cannes. The two films share some producers and crew in common who will be celebrating regardless of which film gets picked. I’m predicting “Beautiful Beings”, which has slightly strong reviews and also because director Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson was expected to represent Iceland in 2017 for “Heartstone” but was unexpectedly snubbed for the cute but forgettable comedy “Under the Tree”. The director of “Godland”, about a 19^th century Danish priest who slowly goes mad after being sent to a remote Icelandic village, has been picked once before for “A White White Day” (which I did not like). It’s a more challenging film and tiny Iceland will want to maximize its chances of making the shortlist two years in a row. “Beings” will have a better shot. Unlikely but possible: period drama “Reply to a Letter from Helga”, about a forbidden love affair, and raucous hit comedy sequel “The Very Last Fishing Trip”. 

 IRELAND- “The Quiet Girl” (WRITTEN BEFORE THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT) Few countries have an easier choice this year than Ireland. “The Quiet Girl” is primarily in Irish, it has gotten a cinematic release, it won two awards at a major film festival (in the K+ Section in Berlin), and has done extremely well with critics and audiences. To top it all off, it just won Best Picture at the Irish Film Awards, defeating the favorite, “Belfast”. Ireland doesn’t produce many films in Irish, so this film about a young girl thriving in a foster case home who discovers a secret, is a shoo-in. 

 ITALY- “Nostalgia”  Italy has more wins in this category than any other country, but they’ve only been nominated three times in the past 20 years (twice for Paolo Sorrentino, and once for “Don’t Tell”, probably the most forgettable nominee I’ve ever seen).  The Italian Academy prefers established directors. They’ve never selected a new director, and in the past twenty years, 17 of their Oscar submissions were made by directors who represented the country more than once (and one of the three others- Claudio Caligari- was selected mostly out of sympathy after he died unexpectedly). So the Italians definitely play favorites. In fact, they've only chose a really young, up-and-coming director  once in recent memory- Jonas Carpignano (“A Ciambra”). In the past 30 years, they’ve also only picked one woman (who was their second choice after their first choice was disqualified). So we’re looking for a new movie by an older, established, male director...and we have lots of movies that fit the profile. This year we have new movies by Gianni Amelio (selected 4 times w/1 Oscar nom; “Lord of the Ants”; Venice), Pupi Avati (selected once; “Dante”), Marco Bellocchio (selected three times; “Exterior Night”), Emanuele Crialese (selected twice; “L”Immensita; Venice), Mario Martone (“Nostalgia”, Cannes), Michele Placido (“Caravaggio’s Shadow”), Paolo Taviani (selected twice, “Leonora Addio”, Berlin), and Paolo Virzi (selected twice; "Siccita”). These eight will be the frontrunners alongside Belgian co-production “Eight Mountains” (Cannes). All eight Italian directors are men over 55 (three are over 80; Taviani is 90). 

Cannes Jury Prize winner “Eight Mountains” is probably the most critically acclaimed Italian film of the year but Italy has never selected a film by a foreign director (Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen has repped Belgium twice). “Leonora Addio” has the weakest notices, but the Taviani Brothers were an institution, and this is probably 90-year old Paolo’s last film. The other two films that have been seen by critics are “Nostalgia”, which is the sort of grim Neopolitan drama that the Italian Academy loves, and “Exterior Night”, which is a 5 ½ hour film that premiered at a Cannes sidebar which will be re-edited into a TV series. The other five will premiere later this year: two costume biopics, 14th century “Dante” and 16th century “Caravaggio’s Shadow”, LGBT drama “Lord of the Ants” and two new films headlined by big stars- family drama “L’Immensita” (with Penelope Cruz) and comedy “Siccita” (with Monica Bellucci). Mario Martone is felt to be overdue (he probably came in 2^nd place at least twice) so “Nostalgia” is my prediction, although I think that the starpower of Penelope Cruz could win out if “L’immensita” wins something big at Venice. These are my two top predictions, although I think “Eight Mountains” and the two glossy costume dramas, “Dante” and “Caravaggio’s Shadow” will be in Italy's Top 5. Other films that could be on Italy’s (usually very long) longlist- “The Adventures of Gigi the Law”, “Cattivo Sangue”, “Chiara” (Venice), “The Code of Silence” ,“Grand Bolero”, “Il pataffio”, “Princess”, “Small Body”, and documentary “Into My Name”.

 LUXEMBOURG- “The Way to Happiness” Most of Luxembourg’s films are co-productions but ever since they were disqualified over nationality issues in 2006, they’ve always made sure to send films by local Luxembourgian directors- with one controversial exception. In 2019, they sent Israeli film “Tel Aviv on Fire” (which I loved!) and- surprisingly- it was accepted. But they prefer local Luxembourgian directors, which is why I’m predicting “The Way to Happiness” a French-language dramedy by Nicolas Steil that’s been compared (mostly unfavorably) to “Life is Beautiful”. It’s about a Holocaust survivor forced to confront his past when a foreign director decides to make a movie about his life. Reviews have been mixed but I suspect American audiences will be more forgiving than European ones. There’s also Italian-language “Lost Flowers”, a personal documentary about the COVID pandemic and German-language coming-of-age dramedy “Raspberries with Mustard”. Their directors aren’t local but supposedly they’re majority LUX productions. If Luxembourg wants to pull a “Tel Aviv on Fire” and claim a film rejected by its host country, they could consider “A Fleeting Encounter” (Switzerland) or “Where is Anne Frank?” (Israel) which have Luxembourgian producers, or perhaps “Corsage”, which I assume will be claimed by Austria. 

 MALTA- “Uwijja” Tiny Malta deserved to make the Oscar shortlist last year for “Luzzu”…but they didn’t because the Oscar committee apparently has no taste. The only Maltese-language feature I know of this year is “Uwijja”, about a man who goes missing, setting into play a tragic series of events. Rebecca Cremona, who directed their first-ever submission, has a new WWII epic in production and will probably rep the island next year. 

 NETHERLANDS- “Sea of Time” In August, the Netherlands announced it would be considering eleven, mostly very obscure films. I’ll probably get in trouble for saying this but it saddens me that there aren’t many authentically “Dutch” films on the list- one is in Italian, one in Russian, one in Persian, one in Arabic, with one about Senegalese asylum seekers….That leaves only half the list actually about Dutch subjects. But that’s their prerogative…And, in fact, the two frontrunners- “Sea of Time” and “Pink Moon”- actually are authentically Dutch stories. “Sea of Time” was selected to open the Nederlands Film Festival later this year and is a grand film in the style of their submissions in the 90s and 00s (back when the Netherlands used to get nominated!! That hasn’t happened in twenty years….). It focuses on a loving couple who lose their child on a boating trip in the 70s, and then meet up again forty years later. “Pink Moon”, which got strong reviews in Tribeca, sounds more like my cup of tea- it’s a darkly comic drama about an elderly man who informs his daughter that he wishes to peacefully end his own life. But it’s a wide-open race. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Netherlands went with the sentimental choice- “Along the Way”- a drama about Afghan refugees starring two real-life twin sisters (director Mijke de Jong has been selected twice before) or “El Houb”, an LGBT film about a gay Moroccan-Dutch man coming out to his conservative family (including Lubna Azabal, who also co-stars as the wife in Morocco’s similarly themed “Blue Caftan”). I think it will be one of these four. Unlikely but possible: moral dilemma drama “The Photo Camera”, unreleased family drama “Narcosis” and Soviet POW documentary “Turn Your Body to the Sun”. Out of luck: “Shabu” (Berlin 14+), an upbeat documentary about a Surinamese-Dutch teen, Italian-language crime drama “Last Ride of the Wolves” and two “kids in peril” family films, “Bigman” and “Totem”. 

 NORWAY- “Narvik” Norway had a banner year last year, getting an Oscar nomination for “Worst Person in the World” (which I was hoping would win over the tedious and overrated mess of “Drive My Car”) after missing much deserved nominations for “Hope” and “What Will People Say”. The critically acclaimed “The Innocents” and “Nothing To Laugh About” didn’t even make the Norwegian shortlist last year, which shows what a strong year it was for Norwegian cinema. This year is a bit thinner, and I don’t see many films with a chance to make their traditional three-film shortlist. Favorite “Narvik”, about Norway fighting the Nazis, will certainly be on the list. I expect it will be joined by comedy “Sick of Myself” (Cannes UCR) and either small-town drama “A Human Position” or “Krigsseileren”, another WWII drama. Other options: Roar Uthaug is Norway’s “big-budget” director and his new monster movie “Troll” could make the shortlist, even though it won’t actually be selected; upcoming biopic “Munch” is about one of Norway’s most celebrated artists (I hate biopics); and documentary “Name of the Game” (Trond Giske) is about political corruption. 

 PORTUGAL- "Tommy Guns"- Last year, Portugal picked a movie where the director read random letters to the audience, while the camera focused off to the side, as if it was bored. The year before, they picked a plotless movie featuring a woman mumbling in the dark for over two hours. The year before that was somewhat less embarrassing; they picked a three-hour Portuguese soap opera channeling Falcon Crest. Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions (38) without ever being nominated (or shortlisted). I’m not certain they’ve ever even come close….I’ve seen nine of these 38 films; most were terrible and even the best one (“Blood of My Blood”) was a 7.5/10. Sorry Portugal. Having said that, 2022 has been a strong year for Portugal and five previously submitted directors have new films. Most people are predicting “Will-o-the-Wisp”, a weird 67-minute gay musical comedy set in the year 2069; it played at Cannes and I actually want to see it. “Remains of the Wind” (by the director of their 2019 soap opera) is supposed to be good too; it’s about a reunion of friends after 25 years. Angolan war drama “Tommy Guns” (Locarno) is probably the most acclaimed Portuguese film of the year. Angola doesn’t have a committee, but the director is Portuguese-Angolan and the film is set amidst Angola’s war for independence against Portugal. Wouldn’t it be funny if Portugal got their first nomination for a film made in another country? For the last few years, Portugal has announced a shortlist of 4-6 films before their announcement. I predict the other films on the list will be family drama “Mal Viver”, “Nothing Ever Happened”, about teens from dysfunctional families and “Alma Viva” (Cannes Critics Week), about a girl from a small village dealing with her grandmother’s death. But “Amadeo”, “The Child”, “Great Yarmouth” (too much English?) and “Revolta” could be on the list too. Not eligible: I think royal historical drama “Pedro” will count for Brazil.  Prediction: Unless they hear that Angola is forming a committee (which they should!), Portugal will grab “Tommy Guns”. 

 SPAIN- "Lullaby" (Cinco Lobitos) Spain announced their usual three-film shortlist on August 25. There were no big surprises; the list included critically-acclaimed dramas "Alcarràs" (Winner, Berlinale 2022), "The Beasts" (San Sebastian) and "Lullaby" (Berlin Panorama). All-star comedy and box-office hit "Official Competition" probably came in 4th place and will now have to hope it gets picked by Argentina. Spain has a tough choice. All three finalists are well regarded by both critics and audiences, and I'd argue that all of them could potentially make the final 15 at the Oscars. Two of the directors have been in the race for an Oscar before. In 2017, Carla Simon became the third woman and the second director working in the Catalan language to represent Spain, with "Summer 1993". In 2019, Rodrigo Sorogoyen got an Oscar nomination in the Live-Action Short category for the brilliant thriller "Mother".  Alauda Ruiz de Azúa is making her feature debut (which could hurt her since Spain usually selects established directors). Interestingly, the three directors and three films represent Spain's four main ethnic regions- "Alcarràs" is from Catalonia, "Lullaby" is from the Basque Country, and "The Beasts" was made in Galicia by a Castilian Spanish director. "Alcarràs", about a family of farmers in turmoil when their new landowner sells the property they've worked for generations, is the favorite by virtue of its Berlin win.  But although Berlin Golden Bear winners are almost always selected for the Oscars when eligible (nine times since 2000), they're not usually nominated (just 3 times out of nine).  According to websites like IMDB, Letterboxd and Rotten Tomatoes, it's mother-daughter drama "Lullaby" that has the strongest reviews. For the record, it's thriller "The Beasts" that looks like the best film, and the one I'm hoping for....but I'm pretty sure it will come third. All three films would make a strong contender for Spain but my prediction is that it's between the two women. "Alcarràs" has the box-office and the Berlin Prize. "Lullaby" has the support of Pedro Almodovar (who, despite complaining about the Spanish Academy, has been picked seven times) and the critics. The Spanish Academy votes with their hearts and often dumps the frontrunner- ask the cast and crew of "Talk to Her", "Everybody Knows" etc.....So I predict a surprise win for "Lullaby". Maybe that's because I'm still angry at Carla Simon for making me waste 95 minutes of my time watching kids play in their backyard in "Summer 1993", the worst Spanish submission I've seen yet....

 SWEDEN- "Holy Spider" Sweden usually announces a three-film shortlist before their final announcement and two of those spots are pretty much locked- Ali Abbasi's "Holy Spider" and Tarik Saleh's "Boy From Heaven". Both competed in the main competition at Cannes 2022 and won major awards, although they lost the Palme d'Or to fellow Swedish film "Triangle of Sadness" (which is in English). "Spider" is in Persian and "Heaven" is in Arabic, so I imagine Sweden would like to have one film in Swedish to round out the shortlist, and that will probably be "Burn My Letters', starring Bill Skarsgård, or "Comedy Queen", which won a Crystal Bear at Berlin in the 14+ category. It could also be Lena Olin's new film "Andra akten", LGBT documentary "Nelly & Nadine" or drama "Maya Nilo". But this is probably a race between the two Middle Eastern films (Sweden has selected films in Georgian and Russian to represent them before). "Holy Spider" won Best Actress for exiled Iranian actress Zar Amir-Ebrahimi (now based in France) while "Boy From Heaven" won Best Screenplay so it's a tight race. Serial killer thriller "Holy Spider", set in Iran, has the buzz and slightly warmer reviews so that's my prediction. 

 SWITZERLAND- “La ligne” “Piece of Sky” I was researching the nine films on Switzerland’s shortlist when they suddenly announced their submission would be the German-language “A Piece of Sky”, a tragic romance narrated by a choir (?!) that got mostly good reviews in Berlin. I’m going to mark this as “incorrect” for my predictions because I was going to predict “La ligne”, the other Swiss film in the Main Competition in Berlin, mainly because director Ursula Meier made the Oscar shortlist for “Sister”. The Swiss shortlist included five films from the German region (Winner “Piece of Sky”, plus “The Black Spider”, “Semret”, “Soul of a Beast” and “Unrest”), three films from the French region (my prediction “La ligne”, plus “Continental Drift” and “A Fleeting Encounter”) and one film from Spain (“La agua”) that seems to have no connection to Switzerland whatsoever. In terms of what films actually look interesting, I would have preferred they pick medieval horror-drama “Black Spider” (which sounds like “Sennentunschi”, one of my favorite Swiss films) or “A Fleeting Encounter”, a culture-clash drama with an international cast. 

 UNITED KINGDOM- “Winners” The UK obviously produces most of their movies in English but globalization (and the 2006 rule change allowing films in non-official languages of the host country) has meant that British directors have qualified to send films fairly regularly since 2008 (they’ve skipped three times). Before 2006, they mostly sent films in Welsh. Since then, only a quarter of entries have been Welsh films, with the rest in a motley crew of African, Asian and Middle Eastern languages, including two documentaries. If they want to go “native”, the frontrunners are two horror-dramas “The Feast” (in Welsh) and “Enys Men” (in Cornish). If they want to go with an international language, it could be “Winners” (in Persian), “The Anglistanis” (in Hindi), Afghan documentary “My Childhood, My Country” (in Persian) or “The Swimmers” (in Arabic). I was ready to predict “My Childhood, My Country”, a documentary twenty years in the making following the boy (now an adult man) from “Boy Mir”…but I think it aired on UK television first. And I fear inspiring Olympic refugee drama “The Swimmers” will have too much English to qualify. So, I think it’s between psychological horror-thriller “Enys Men” (the second feature film ever made in the dying Cornish language) and “Winners” (by an Afghan director who once represented Afghanistan), a Majidi-esque drama about two children trying to find the owner of a missing object. “Enys” has more buzz, “Winners” better reviews. I predict “Winners" will be the final submission. 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

CYPRUS is the only EU country that doesn't participate in the Oscars, although they do make a number of respectable films each year, and they did join the European Film Promotion organization in 2016. If they finally join this year, it's likely to be ".dog", about a young man getting to know his father who has just been released from prison. It was nominated for three Greek Academy Awards, winning one. 

OSCAR SUBMISSION PREDICTIONS 2015-2016, HONG KONG-LUXEMBOURG (Pt. 3 of 5)

And here's Group 3.....I haven't had time to write up the world's largest film industry- INDIA- but you can see some guesses in the Comments Section. I hope to finish them later.

1. HONG KONG- "Little Big Master" The city-state of Hong Kong has three main candidates this year, namely “Dearest” (directed by Peter Chan, “Perhaps Love”), “Little Big Master” and “Port-of-Call”. I’m wavering between the first two but have decided to predict “Little Big Master”, a heartwarming family drama (based on a true story) about a dedicated headmistress who leaves her elite school to take care of a small village kindergarten with only five students. Everyone who sees it seems to like it, and it seems to fit the same mold as recent sentimental Hong Kong selections like “Echoes of the Rainbow” and “A Simple Life”. To me, “Dearest” sounds much more interesting, and it also has a high chance of being selected. It’s about a couple whose child is kidnapped and found years later living with an impoverished woman who may or may not be the kidnapper. Who gets to keep the child? How did the child end up with this woman? Reviews have been solid, though it lost Best Picture at the Hong Kong Fim Awards to Ann Hui’s dull “Golden Era” which repped Hong Kong last year. In third place will be “Port of Call”, the Closing Film at the 2015 HK Film Festival, starring Aaron Kwok as a police inspector investigating the murder of a teenage prostitute. The killer confesses at the beginning of the movie, so this is much more a movie about “WHY” rather than “WHO”. Rounding out the Top Five will be “Office” (aka “Design for Living”), a musical-comedy directed by Johnnie To, famous for his gritty gangster films (and who’s repped Hong Kong four times) and Tsui Hark’s splashy 3D action film “Taking of Tiger Mountain”, set during the Chinese civil wars of the early 20^th century (also a dark horse for CHINA).  Unlikely but possible: Herman Yau’s drama “Sara”, about a female reporter investigating prostitution in Thailand. I don’t think Hong Kong will be swayed by the starpower of “The Crossing” (directed by John Woo, starring Zhang Ziyi) or “Dragon Blade” (starring Jackie Chan, Adrien Brody and John Cusack, but probably over 50% in Chinese). Two new Wong Kar-wai movies (“Blossoms”, which he is directing, and “The Ferryman”, which he wrote) don’t seem to be ready for release. If Wong hurries up, “The Ferryman” would become the new frontrunner.

2. HUNGARY- OFFICIAL SELECTION "Son of Saul" Hungary was the first country to officially name their candidate for the Oscar race on June 11, 2015, choosing the concentration camp drama "Son of Saul" four months before the official deadline. After winning four prizes, including the Jury Prize and the FIPRESCI Price at Cannes 2015, this was the obvious frontrunner. "Saul" is a grim character study of a Jewish prisoner tasked with the secret disposal of corpses from the murder of Auschwitz victims in 1944 Poland. There was little doubt Hungary would choose “Saul” but I am a bit disappointed because I have been waiting years to see horror-comedy “Liza, the Fox Fairy”. “Liza” is a dark comedy about a young nurse who ends up being terrorized by a Japanese fox demon (known as an inari) after caring for the Japanese Ambassador’s wife. The demon gleefully murders any man who takes an interest in poor Liza. The plot sounds loopy and original and, best of all, the film opened to really positive reviews. Before “Saul” came out, I was thinking “Liza” might be Hungary’s submission (after all, they sent the bizarre “Taxidermy” in 2007). "Saul" may also spell bad news for the upcoming “Lily Lane” (Bence Fliegauf) and “Home Guards” (Krisztina Goda) by two of Hungary’s leading arthouse directors. Their films have no release date but will have no chance at the Oscars if they premiere before September 30. “Saul” is no surprise, but I still would have loved to promote "Liza"!

3. ICELAND- "Virgin Mountain" Iceland has eight or nine eligible films, but this is very much an extremely competitive two-way race between “Virgin Mountain” (Berlinale), which dominated the awards at the Tribeca Film Festival, and “Rams”, which won the Un Certain Regard award at Cannes. That’s a lot of love for tiny Iceland and it’s anybody’s guess which one they will pick. Iceland chooses their nominee by a mass vote of the Icelandic Academy’s members rather than a traditional selection committee like most countries, so personal popularity may play a part. The arthouse may prefer “Rams”, the story of two feuding elderly brothers who live next to each other in rural Iceland but who haven’t spoken in 40 years. They are forced to work together when a virus kills their prize rams. Those voters savvy enough to pay attention to actual chances of an Oscar nonmination may opt for Dagur Kari’s “Virgin Mountain”, which won Best Fiction Feature, Best Screenplay and Best Actor at Tribeca. It's about a depressed, overweight man living at home with his mother, who finds himself unexpectedly courting a pretty, free-spirited, single mother. Both films explore surprisingly similar stories of lonely older men in today’s Iceland. Kari has been chosen once before (for the overrated “Noi the Albino”). The only film that could possibly catch up to these two is the yet-to-be-released “Sparrows”, a coming-of-age drama with several big Icelandic stars, directed by Oscar Short Film nominee Runar Runarsson. He’d be smart to wait to release the film until October. This will likely come down to just a few votes, but I think the fact that “Mountain” has proven to appeal to an American audience will make it the front-runner. Road comedy “Reverse” will be a very distant third. 

4. INDIA- "Court" Analysis to follow.

5. INDONESIA- "Guru Bangsa: Tjokroaminoto" Indonesia has chosen historical films four years in a row, and they are likely to do so again this year. Two of the films I mentioned last year as possibilities were actually released after the deadline so “Golden Cane Warrior” and “3 Nafas Likas”, both period pieces, will contend this year. The same goes for the two strongest candidates of year 2015, “Guru Bangsa: Tjokroaminoto” and historical anime “Battle of Surabaya”.  The only acclaimed “contemporary” film this year is “Coffee Philosophy”, about a struggling café, but I’m fairly certain Indonesia will choose one of the four historical films. Oddly enough, Indonesian grande dame Christine Hakim will be competing against herself, as she stars in both of the Indonesian frontrunners. If the Indonesians want something exciting, they will send “Golden Cane Warrior”, a glossy and expensive martial-arts spectacular with an all-star production team including director Ifa Isfansyah, producer Riri Riza and actor Nicholas Saputra, alongside Hakim. The four of them have co-starred or directed most of Indonesia’s recent submissions. "Warrior" is about an aging female guru (Hakim) who trains the children of her vanquished  enemies. If the Indonesians want to send something more dramatic and serious (and much less interesting), it’s likely they’ll choose 3-hour historical drama “Guru Bangsa” which covers the life of famed 20th century Indonesian resistance leader Haji Omar Said Tjokroaminoto who fought against the Dutch. Unfortunately, AMPAS couldn't care less about Indonesian resistance leaders and probably has no understanding of Indonesian history. The action-packed (and less cerebral) “Golden Cane Warrior” would appeal more and could actually get a US release if someone in the Oscar screening room saw potential. “3 Nafas Likas”, a nominee at last year’s National Film Awards, is another 20th century biopic, this time about the widow of another resistance leader. “Battle of Surabaya”, an Indonesian venture into Miyazaki-style animation, is definitely a long shot. Based on Indonesia’s previous choices, “Guru Bangsa” looks like it will be the Indonesian nominee, though I’m hoping for “Golden Cane Warrior". 

6. IRAN- "Track 143" Iran has a wide-open field and one of the most interesting races of the year, partly due to some unusual controversies. Although the Islamic Republic proudly believes itself to a model of Islamic values, its two biggest films have ironically run into controversy because they have angered conservative clerics! Majid Majidi was Iranian’s first Oscar nominee for “Children of Heaven” in 1999. Since then, three of his four features (“Colour of Paradise”, “Baran” and “Song of Sparrows”) were sent to the Oscars. So add that to the fact that historical epic “Muhammad” is the most expensive film ever made in Iran (at an estimated cost of $US35 million) and it would seem to be the obvious front-runner. However making a movie about the childhood of the Prophet Muhammad is tricky business, as it is forbidden to actually show him on screen. Majidi somehow accomplishes this, but clerics still object to seeing the back of the child Muhammad’s head (!!) The film failed to screen at the national Fajr Film Festival, probably in part due to the January terrorist attack against Charlie Hebdo in Paris. While Iranian critics have praised the film, some Sunni Arabs have called for it to be banned. Majidi, who has Iranian government support, has said the film is meant to educate and unite Muslims and has reaffirmed that he will make two more “Muhammad” films constituting a trilogy. Majidi is not the only one with problems. The 2014 Fajr Best Picture Winner- expensive 7th century historical epic “Hussein, Who Said No”- ran into similar problems, since it showed certain distant relatives of the Prophet Muhammad. It’s all very ridiculous! In any case, even if these two historical films weren’t so controversial, they’re also aimed directly at an Islamic audience. Hollywood won’t care about the controversy, but they may not understand the context of the films. So that's a long way of saying that I think Iran will not court controversy and simply choose a more contemporary Iranian film to send to the Oscars. I’m feeling good about “Track 143”, a drama about women on the homefront, waiting for their sons to come home from war. It won the Audience Award at the 2014 Fajr Film Festival and was released in Iranian cinemas in November. Iran has never chosen a woman filmmaker, but there has been a lot of buzz in the country about female directors this year. The film has gotten very good reviews at home, tells a universally relatable story (mothers waiting for their sons to come from war) and also shows Iran in a positive light. However, with no front-runner and a fairly liberal Academy, Iran could choose any number of new movies. The two strongest runner-ups are probably “Tales” (Best Screenplay in Venice 2014 + Jury Prize, Asia-Pacific Screen Awards), a series of seven stories about the travails of contemporary Iranian life (also directed by a woman!) and “A Time for Love”, a marital relationship drama about an Iranian woman living in France (Leila Khatami) who returns home. These two films each star half the couple from the Oscar winning “A Separation” (he in “Tales”, she in “Time”). Majidi’s “Muhammad” and “Mazar-e-Sharif”, about a Taliban attack on an Iranian Consulate will round out the Top Five for Iran. But they really could choose anything, including “We Have a Guest” (parents care for a dying son), “Long Goodbye” (a man found innocent of a crime is still ostracized by a suspicious community), “Princess of Rome” (an Iranian anime film), “Raspberry” (surrogate pregnancies) and “Crazy Castle”, which got middling reviews but somehow won the top three awards at Fajr 2015 for a story of teens behaving badly on social media. As for Iran’s festival films…”Nahid” (Cannes, Un Certain Regard), another female-helmed film, seems a bit too controversial as it explores the Shi’ite custom of “temporary marriage”. Berlinale Golden Bear winner “Taxi”, made in secret by Jafar Panahi, won’t be considered at all as Panahi remains legally banned from making films for twenty years. The Guardian recently published a good article on this year’s Fajr Film Festival and the decline of Iranian arthouse to the advantage of commercial blockbusters. Still confused!

7. IRAQ- "Silence of the Shepherd" Iraq has suffered so much this year and yet they rejoined the Oscar race in 2014 and won a Crystal Bear in the Short Film section at Berlinale 2015. Most Iraqi films are made in the autonomous Kurdish region which has remained (mostly) peaceful and stable over the past 15 years. This year, Iraq has two standout films, one Kurdish and one Arab. “Memories on Stone”, the Kurdish-language film, has the higher profile, winning “Best Film from the Arab World” at the Abu Dhabi Film Festival, Best Picture at the Erbil Film Festival (in Iraqi Kurdistan) and the UNESCO Award at the Asia-Pacific Film Awards (the pan-Asian Oscars). It’s about a pair of aspiring filmmakers desperately seeking a lead actress for their new film about Saddam Hussein's atrocities against the Kurds. When the directors finally find a perfect actress, they find they'll need to convince her reluctant family to agree to be in the film. “Silence of the Shepherd”, in Arabic, is about a rural man’s desperate search for his 13-year daughter who has disappeared while fetching water from the river. Dealing with the controversial concepts of honor and machismo in today's Iraqi Arab society, both films sound good. Unlikely but possible: “Face of the Ash” (Busan), a black comedy about a village trying to identify a body. The Iraqis have a very tough choice, and it may come down to who can get an Oscar-eligible screening (and it would be much easier for the Kurds to do that in the mostly peaceful North). I’m going out on a limb and predicting the more serious “Shepherd”. The Iraqis have sent three Kurdish films and two Arab films to the Oscars, and there may be a desire to even the score.

8. IRELAND- "Moscow Never Sleeps" Ireland obviously makes most of their films in English, but they have sent two films in Irish Gaelic as well as one film in Bosnian. I don’t believe they have any feature films in Irish this year (in fact the “Irish Language Award” at the Irish Film & Television Awards appears to have disappeared) but they do have three possible choicesin 2015, namely silk weaving documentary “Tana Bana” (made by an Irish director in Uttar Pradesh, India), multi-character drama "Moscow Never Sleeps" (made by an Irish director based in Moscow) and Spanish-language LGBT-themed drama “Viva” (made by an Irish director in Cuba). With all the hubbub around gay marriage in Ireland, I originally predicted “Viva”, the story of an 18-year old Cuban hustler who suddently becomes reacquainted with his father gets out of prison after serving a 15-year sentence. Since that film is still unreleased, it's more likely Ireland will select "Moscow Never Sleeps" (described as a "love letter to Moscow") which opens in Russia in September, though it also has no domestic release date. 

9. ISRAEL- "Kapo in Jerusalem" In my first draft for Israel, I wrote about how I predicted a surprise snub for Natalie Portman's Cannes drama “A Tale of Love and Darkness” which is being buzzed about online as the most likely Israeli candidate. I also predicted the five Ophir candidates to be announced in August, with Jerusalem International Film Festival winner "Tikkun" taking the prize and representing Israel. Unfortunately, neither "Love and Darkness" nor "Tikkun" will even be eligible for the Oscars, as they haven't registered themselves as candidates. Neither will "Suicide" (which I heard was very good) which was apparently considered last year, nor Amos Gitai's "Tsili" (which had no chance in hell anyway). Oh well! The full list of the 23 Israeli candidates (in Hebrew) can be found here. So, what film will represent Israel? I now predict the five Ophir candidates will be: "Afterthought" (aka "Stair Cases"; Cannes 2015), an odd, intellectual comedy about two men going up and down stairs in different directions,  "AKA Nadia", the directorial debut of an award-winning editor, about an Arab woman who was raised Jewish, "Kapo in Jerusalem", a drama about two Auschwitz survivors who settle in pre-independence Israel, "The Kind Words", a family drama about three brothers (made by a director who is traditionally well-liked at the Ophirs) and “Man in the Wall”, a mystery-thriller about a man who vanishes while walking his dog. Alternate choices for the Israeli shortlist include "Baba Joon", a Farsi-language drama about Israel's Iranian Jewish community, "90 Minute War", about the race to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, "Wedding Doll", about a mentally handicapped woman at a paper factory who falls in love, and Dror Shaul's peacenik comedy "Atomic Falafel", about two girls from Iran and Israel who meet online and secretly plot to denuclearize the Middle East. Oscar nominee Uri Barbash ("Kapo in Jerusalem"), Eyan Halfon ("90-Minute War") and Dror Shaul ("Atomic Falafel") have represented Israel in the Oscar race before, while Shemi Zarhin ("The Kind Words") missed out by a single Academy vote (losing to Shaul in a tiebreaker). I still wonder whether JIFF winner "Tikkun" or Portman's "Love and Darkness" will find some way of sneaking into the Ophir race late. But, I think the eventual winner will be the deadly serious "Kapo in Jerusalem", with comic "Afterthought" its main competition. Based on a famous play, "Kapo" is about a male doctor and a female pianist who settle in Israel after WWII. The doctor faces allegations of abuse from the war and is soon enlisted in the army to fight for Israel's independence in 1948. 

10. ITALY- "Mia Madre" This year's Italian contest has fewer contenders than usual. Last year’s big winner at the Donatello Awards (“Black Souls”) opened a few days too early to be considered. Paolo Sorrentino (Oscar winner for “The Great Beauty”), Matteo Garrone (“Gomorrah”) and Saverio Costanzo (selected but disqualified in 2005 for the excellent “Private”) all made their films in English this year, while the latest films from acclaimed directors like Gabriele Salvatores and the Taviani Brothers have failed to live up to expectations. Italy makes over a hundred films a year, but to me this year is a pretty clear three-film race between Nanni Moretti’s dramedy “Mia madre” (the only Italian-language film in the Main Competition at Cannes 2015), Marco Bellocchio’s upcoming “Blood of my Blood” (to be released in September) and Mario Martone’s 19th century biopic “Leopardi” (Venice, 2014). Of the two films that have been released so far, I think “Mia madre” can certainly fend off "Leopardi”. “Madre” has gotten better reviews, co-stars a Hollywood actor (John Turturro) and its contemporary, universally relatable story of a production assistant coping with her stressful job and her dying mother with grace and humor will appeal to the Academy more than the story of obscure Italian poet Giacomo Leopardi. If the year were to end now, “Mia madre” would have this easy. Enter Bellocchio, a respected 75-year old Italian director who hasn’t been selected for the Oscar race since 1980 (35 years!!) even for critical darlings like “Vincere” and “Good Morning Night”. “Blood of My Blood” is an odd film about a 17th century noblewoman/nun convicted of witchcraft for seducing a priest and his brother. Somehow the story then connects to another incident in present-day Italy. Bellocchio is clearly due and if the film is good, it may be selected over Moretti. I keep changing my mind between these two but I’m thinking that “Madre” fits the profile of recent Italian submissions like “Great Beauty” and “Human Capital” more than the decidedly weird “Blood”. I could mention other Italian films that will be on Italy’s longlist (“Antonia”, “Greenery will Bloom Again”, “Invisible Boy”, “Latin Lover”, “La scelta”) but I really don’t see any film other than these three being seriously considered to represent Italy. 

11. JAPAN-  "Cape Nostalgia" I have never once correctly guessed the Japanese Oscar submission, as it’s so hard to figure out what they like. Sometimes, they’ll choose a film that you really need to be Japanese to understand (“The Great Passage”), while other times they’ll choose a silly mainstream effort that could have been made in Hollywood (“Hula Girls”). They only rarely choose films that have done well at international film festivals (snubbing “Like Father, Like Son”, “Unagi”), often snub films that seem destined to be Oscar nominees ("Always: Sunset on Third Street") and sometimes choose obscure films out of nowhere that haven’t really impressed anyone at all (“Our Homeland”, the first female-helmed film ever to represent Japan and “OUT”, which I loved but nobody else did). Japan used to send a lot of period samurai films until one got nominated (“The Twilight Samurai”) and then they stopped! This year (as always) Japan has produced hundreds of films (heavy on animation and horror) and has half a dozen legitimate Oscar contenders. Having said that, it’s completely possible they will ignore all of them.  I see this as a “fight to the finish” between two of Japan’s most respected senior actresses- 70-year old Sayuri Yoshinaga (sometimes referred to as Japan’s Meryl Streep, with 17 Japanese Oscar nominations for Best Leading Actress since 1981) and 72-year old Kirin Kiki (10 nominations since 1986). Yoshinaga stars in “Cape Nostalgia”, a box-office success which marks her first film as producer. It’s a gentle drama about an elderly woman who runs a countryside café with her dim-witted nephew, who dispenses advice and good will to the locals who frequent her establishment. Despite the simple plot, it is said to be entertaining and emotional, and it got nominated in every category at this year’s Oscars (though it won nothing). “Sweet Red Bean Paste” (aka “An”), directed by arthouse film director Naomi Kawase, played at Cannes 2015. Kawase has generally been more successful in France than in her native Japan but “Bean Paste” is said to be her first film to appeal to a Japanese audience. It’s about an elderly woman who asks to help the grouchy middle-aged manager of a dorayaki stall improve the flavor of his sweets. The man, who hates sweets, reluctantly lets the old woman help. Though Kawase is very “arthouse”, this movie is said to be accessible to both Western and Japanese audiences. It also sounds like total Oscar bait- Oscar loves tearjerkers, food porn, old people and “Babette’s Feast”. In the end, though I think “Bean Paste” would have a better chance in Hollywood, the fact that Kawase works outside the studio system and that women directors have been selected two of the past three years may give Yoshinaga and her more popular “Cape Nostalgia” the Japanese nod. It’s interesting though that both of these frontrunners have such similar themes. Also very possible: (in 3^rd place) “Pale Moon”, a much more manic, modern drama-thriller about a conservative housewife who gets involved in a life of crime to help support her younger boyfriend. Japan often chooses more “contemporary” films, and “Pale Moon” has gotten very strong notices for lead actress Rie Miyazawa (“Twilight Samurai”) and its sly humor. It won the Audience Award at the Tokyo Film Festival and won two Japanese Oscars (Best Actress and Best Newcomer). In 4^th place is Hirokazu Koreeda’s “Our Little Sister” (Cannes 2015) , which bloggers seem to be predicting for Japan. About three adult sisters who meet their teenaged half sister after the death of their father, Koreeda excels at these sorts of family dramas. However, Japan rarely nominates independent directors. It’s true Koreeda was selected once, but he has been ignored for many more acclaimed films than this, though this one has done well at the box-office… In 5^th place will be “100-Yen Love”, a quirky comedy which won Best Japanese Film at the 2014 Tokyo Film Festival. It’s about a female hikikomori (someone who shuts themselves off from the rest of the world) who ends up moving out of her house to avoid her annoying sister and becomes a successful amateur boxer. The Japanese are extremely unpredictable so they could also easily consider two films by previously submitted directors- Takashi Koizumi’s samurai drama “A Samurai Chronicle” and Yuya Ishii’s baseball drama “Vancouver Asahi”, about Japanese immigrants in pre-WWII Canada. But reviews for these two haven’t been as strong as for their previous films. I think Shinya Tsukamoto’s “Fires on the Plain” (Venice 2014) and Kiyoshi Kurosawa’s genre-bending ghost romance “Journey to the Shore” (Cannes 2015, Best Director, Un Certain Regard) are too weird and divisive. Count on one of the two obasan to be selected.

12. JORDAN- "Theeb" The Kingdom of Jordan has only sent a movie once (the delightful “Captain Abu Raed”) but they are almost certain to make a second submission this year with the critically acclaimed “Theeb”. After winning major awards in Abu Dhabi (Best Picture), Cairo and Venice (Best Director, Horizons Section), this beautifully shot historical drama finally premiered in Jordanian cinemas in March 2015. The film, featuring gorgeous desert cinematography, is about two young Arab brothers during the Ottoman era, who follow a troop of British soldiers on a secret reconnaissance mission. It’s also been picked up by Film Movement for distribution in the U.S. One of the easiest predictions. Count on it to rep Jordan.

13. KAZAKHSTAN- "Kenzhe" Kazakhstan mysteriously skipped last year’s competition, ignoring one of the most critically acclaimed foreign films of the year- “Harmony Lessons”. It’s true that school bullying drama “Harmony” was a bit controversial, but why not select another film? Kazakhstan makes about 20 films per year. It’s odd. Perhaps a problem with paperwork?  My prediction for 2015 is “Kenzhe”, a new crime drama directed by Ermek Tursunov. Tursunov received a shortlist spot for “Kelin” (Daughter-In-Law) and also competed with “Shal” (The Old Man) in 2013. “Kenzhe” (literally translated as Younger Brother) is said to be the third film in a trilogy about Kazakhstan. Information is scarce but it's some sort of crime drama about two brothers trying to make a living in the big city. Tursunov said it is not a “festival film” but one for the people of Kazakhstan. Does that mean he doesn't want an Oscar? The biggest Kazakh film on the film festival circuit this year- tragicomedy “The Owners”- is about a family of orphans facing off against a corrupt bureaucracy. It has apparently not been received well in the country at all (they’ve accused the director of showing the country in a negative light) and I don’t think it’s gotten a domestic release at all. Other possibilities besides “Kenzhe” include “The Way Home”, about a Kazakh man who returns to his homeland after studying abroad, “Voice of the Steppes”, starring actor Gerard Depardieu (now a Russian citizen) and “To Be or Not to Be?”, a retelling of Hamlet starring an actor with cerebral palsy.  Festival films like “Nagima” (Busan 2013) and “Adventure” (Karlovy Vary 2014) could also come into play if they premiered at home late, as often happens in Kazakhstan. Out of luck: stylish thriller “The Whole World at our Feet” co-starring Peter O’Toole, Armand Assante and Michael Madsen alongside a Kazakh cast appears to have too much English.

14. KENYA- "Strength of a Woman" The Kenya Film Commission reportedly considered sending a film last year….but then they didn’t. Their only Oscar submission thus far was the enormously entertaining “Nairobi Half Life”, which was produced thanks to the support of German director Tom Tykwer and his Kenyan production house One Fine Day Films. Unfortunately, their latest effort “Veve”, a political thriller, appears to have been released four weeks before the eligibility period. Not sure why they didn’t send it last year. Kenya’s most critically praised film of the year- low-budget LGBT anthology “Stories of Our Lives”- is banned in Kenya and one of its producers was arrested by Kenyan authorities due to the country's homophobic laws, despite accolades at Berlin (where it won a Teddy Award) and Toronto. What does that leave? Very little. So I’ll predict feminist drama “Strength of A Woman”, about a teenager desperately trying to achieve her dreams while her drunkard father tries to marry her off. It opened in March 2015 after winning Best Picture at the local Kalasha Awards. 

15. KOREA- "Ode to my Father" Greetings from South Korea! Even though Korea produces many good films, I'm feeling strangely confident that nobody can beat "Ode to My Father". Ever since it opened last December, the film has broken box-office records (it is currently the #2 Korean box-office hit of all time) and garnered critical acclaim. It has proven its ability to appeal to mainstream audiences, but also landed an arthouse berth at the Berlinale Panorama. Korea is desperate for a first Oscar nomination (they've deserved many) and the film's positive reception from US audiences (even the US Ambassador saw it and said he loved it) will surely vault the film to an Oscar berth. Incidentally, the film covers nearly 50 years of Korean history beginning with a boy's separation from much of his family during the Korean War to his attempts to work hard and make money for his family in the Southern city of Busan, and later abroad. It costars actress Yunjin KIM ("Lost"). While the film has been praised by political conservatives (including President Park), there's really been no liberal backlash, so I think it's okay. If the Korean Academy doesn't want to choose a film the conservative President likes, I think the second choice will be LEE Jun-ik's period drama "The Throne" (aka "Prince Sado"), a lush royal period piece about a controversial 18th century prince executed in a most cruel fashion by his father. Rounding out the Top Five: "Assassination", an action-thriller about political intrigue during the Japanese colonial era, "Set Me Free", a drama about a boy with an abusive father trying desperately to remain with his new foster family and "Western Front 1953", yet another large-scale Korean War drama, this time about encounters between North and South Korean soldiers at the end of the war (sounds like "The Front Line"). Others in with a chance: "Coin Locker Girl" (Cannes), about what becomes of a young woman raised by a criminal gang after being abandoned in a coin locker as a baby, "Revivre" (Venice 2014), IM Kwon-taek's 102nd film about an aging man who falls for a younger woman while his wife is on her deathbed and "Salut d'Amour", a small-scale elderly romance starring two retired film stars and directed by action-film director Je-kyu KANG. And just to make this an even "Top Ten" let's add "C'est si bon", about a rural boy who aspires to be a professional singer and "Memories of the Sword", a period piece about a female warrior. But my money is easily on "Ode to My Father". 

16. KOSOVO- "Father" Kosovo is only recognized by 60% of the world’s countries due to a dispute with Serbia, but they’ve increasingly been successful at getting admittance to “fun” international competitions like Miss Universe (since 2008), the Oscars (2014), the Olympic Games (recognized by the IOC in 2015). They reportedly have their sights set on Eurovision 2016 as well. Last year I believe Kosovo had two eligible local films- “Three Windows and a Hanging” and “Hero”. “Three Windows”, the nominee, is supposed to be quite good, although also quite hard to find. The Kosovo Cinematography Center has a number of co-productions in the works, including “Distant Angels” (about Kosovo, but by an Albanian director) and “Home Sweet Home” (a co-production with Macedonia to be filmed this year). “Distant Angels” may be released in time, though they’ll have to compete with neighboring Albania as to who gets to send it. More likely is “Babai” (Father) which is the first-ever Kosovar film to compete at a Class A International Film Festival (Karlovy Vary 2015). It’s about the relationship between a father and his 10-year old son amidst the complicated turmoil of the 1990s wars. The father tries to illegally emigrate to Germany to find work, with the son doing everything he can to follow. 

17. KUWAIT- "Habib al-Arad" Kuwait sent two films to the Oscars in 1972 and 1978. They have the longest absence of any country in the world except Cote d’Ivoire (1976). Although I didn’t know about it at the time, Kuwait had a suitable candidate last year- “He Was My Friend” (aka Kan Refeeji), which performed well at home during the Eid holidays, and was invited to the rebooted 2014 Cairo International Film Festival, a rare Class A Festival slot for a Gulf film. If they didn’t send “Friend” (or the acclaimed “Tora Bora” a few years back) then they’re unlikely to return this year either. However, "Habib al-Arad" would make a suitable candidate. It's the true biopic of a renowned poet and humanitarian who was killed during the Iraqi invasion of 1991. It's far more likely than their other eligible film,  “090”, a low-budget thriller about mysterious goings-on at a vacation house.  

18. KYRGYZSTAN- "Heavenly Nomadic" Kyrgyzstan has zero Oscar nominations, but this small former Soviet mountain republic has probably come unbelievably close at least three times. We’ll never know for sure. I hope the failure of their biggest film of all-time to make the shortlist last year (“Kurmandjan Datka, Queen of the Mountains”) won’t lead them to stop trying. This year’s likely nominee is “Heavenly Nomadic”, the directorial debut of the 32-year old son of Kyrgyzstan’s most famous international director Aktan Arym Kubat (aka Aktan Abdykalykov). He's also the former child star of his father’s films, including two Kyrgyz Oscar submissions, “Beshkempir” and “The Chimp”. Besides the fact that he comes from a well-established Kyrgyz filmmaking family, "Nomadic" was produced by the director of last year's "Queen of the Mountains" and was selected for Karlovy Vary’s 2015 East of the West competition. Mirlan's father wrote the script to “Nomadic”, about a close-knit family of nomads living in the mountains. The Kyrgyz Academy likes these sorts of village films and they typically do them quite well. Also possible: “The Move” (Busan) is a (long) movie about an adorable little girl and her grandfather who are pressured by the girl’s mother to move to the big city. Dark horse: “Under Heaven”, about a woman and the jealousy that arises from her relationship with two brothers.

19. LATVIA- "Alias Loner" Latvia is a difficult one to predict this year. They have five features scheduled to premiere in 2015 but as of July none of them have made it into theatres. I believe they also have four films eligible from 2014 (a docudrama, two festival dramas and a horror-thriller) but a lot of this will depend on what gets released by September 30, 2015. If all nine films are eligible (which they won’t be), my prediction would easily be “Chronicles of Melanie”, a harrowing drama about a woman separated from her husband and deported to Siberia with her 8-year old son during Stalin’s mass deportations. It doesn’t get any more dramatic than that. However, “Melanie” won't premiere until year's end. My next pick would be “Dawn”, about a patriotic young Communist who denounces his father to the secret police, leading the rest of his family to plot revenge against him. It is directed by Laila Pakalnina, one of Latvia’s top directors and one who has never been honored here. It's scheduled to be released in "summer", but no date is scheduled. Third place would go to “My Peaceful Place of Exile”, a German co-production set in 1917 about the goings-on at a rural Latvian sanatorium for war veterans run by a German doctor. Its scheduled for “Autumn 2015”. I'm predicting all three fail to get a timely release. So, what will Latvia choose? Difficult to say, but I’m guessing "Alias Loner”, an obscure docudrama (the Latvian Film Centre says it’s a documentary but it has a “cast” and IMDB says it’s a drama) about a priest in 1945 who saves men from Soviet conscription. Like Switzerland's "Der Kreis", I think its some sort of documentary/drama hybrid. Its main competition is “Modris” (Toronto, San Sebastian), about a teenaged gambling addict.  Home invasion horror flick “Man in the Yellow Jacket” (trailer looks really good) and an ethnic Russian-Latvian update of “Romeo n Juliet” (by twice-submitted Maris Martinsons) are probably out of luck. My prediction: “Alias Loner” gets this by default, unless "Dawn" sneaks in. 

20. LEBANON- "The Valley" Lebanon won a Palme d'Or for Best Short Film at Cannes (for "Waves '98") this year. Congratulations! In terms of feature films, their highest-profile choice is “The Valley”, which has played at a number of festivals, including Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong and Seattle. It’s a slow-burn thriller about a man with amnesia who runs into trouble when he seeks help from a mysterious group of strangers who end up kidnapping him and holding him hostage. It’s slow-moving and not everyone likes it, which leaves the door wide-open for "The Road", which premiered at the Moscow Film Festival, winning the Critics Prize. About a man and his depressed wife on a road trip, it's also slow-moving and not for everyone though the fact that it won a major prize makes it more likely to be selected. In third place: documentary “Scheherazadze’s Diary”, about a group of female prisoners who put on a theatrical production in jail. Local box-office hit "Vitamin" (the #1 movie of 2014) doesn't have good-enough reviews to contend. In the end, I don't think "The Road" will be released in Lebanese cinemas until this fall, meaning "The Valley" is in. 

21. LITHUANIA- "Master and Tatyana" The Lithuanians will likely see a face-off between the two big winners at the Silver Crane Awards, namely teen lesbian drama “The Summer of Sangaile” and documentary “Master and Tatyana”. “Summer of Sangaile” won Best Picture, Actress and a Tech Award and was also the surprise winner of Best Director (World Cinema Section) at the Sundance Film Festival. Its a gentle LGBT story about two girls who fall for each other over a fascination for stunt airplanes. The film lost Best Director at the Silver Cranes to “Master and Tatyana”, which also won Best Documentary, Editing and Cinematography, for its look at Vitas Luckus, a famous (but insane) Soviet Lithuanian photographer whose life ended in a bizarre murder-suicide. Their third candidate, “Peace to Us in Our Dreams” (Cannes) will be released in Lithuania in October, making it ineligible. The Lithuanian Academy likes documentaries…three of their seven Oscar submissions to the Oscars have been docs less than a hour long, and “Master and Tatyana” is more consequential fare. Add to that the fact that Lithuania is one of the most squeamish countries in Europe about LGBT issues....So, I predict the surprise selection of "Master & Tatyana” to represent Lithuania. In third place: historical drama “We Will Sing”, about the 1991 struggle for independence from the Soviet Union. If “Sing” wasn’t a UK co-production (with a British director), I might have ranked it higher.

22. LUXEMBOURG- "Mammejong" Luxembourg has no less than four films in their native dialect (Letzeburgesch) this year, plus one majority Luxembourg production in French. That may be a record for the country, which mostly deals in minority co-productions because of its small size. Three of these films are by locally famous directors who have been submitted before (Pol Cruchten, Andy Bausch and Christophe Wagner) while the other two are by newer filmmakers.  The front-runner should clearly be “Eng nei Zäit”, a period drama about a young man who returns to his village in 1945 after fleeing during the four-year Nazi occupation. When his girlfriend is murdered soon thereafter, he finds the investigation hampered by a number of village secrets connected to the war. Director Christophe Wagner directed the well-received thriller “Blind Spot” and this looks like it has a bigger budget. The problem is that it is not scheduled to be released until October 14^th in Luxembourg, making it eligible next year. That means the field is wide open between French-language crime thriller “Les Brigands” and dark dramas “Baby (a)lone” and “Mammejong”. The confusing “Les Brigands” has not gotten the best reviews despite its higher profile (Director Cruchten repped Luxembourg twice and the film co-stars French actor Tcheky Karyo and the late German actor Maximilian Schell), so I’m going to predict they send “Mammejong”, about a 20-year old man who lives with his stifling widowed mother (she makes them sleep together in the same bed), whose life is changed when he meets a teenaged runaway. "Baby (a)lone", about a violent sociopathic teen whose life is far different from Luxembourg's wealthy capital, will come second. I don’t expect Andy Bausch’s documentary “Faustino” to figure in.

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

The most likely national debut this year is the impoverished Caribbean nation of HAITI. Former Haitian Minister of Culture Raoul Peck ("Lumumba") has made his first fiction feature in 15 years with "Meurtre a Pacot" which managed to be shown in Berlin Panorama. That's pretty impressive for a Haitian film. Set over eight days in the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake, it's about a middle-class couple who are forced to rent out their home to a French aid worker and his trashy girlfriend and move into an adjoining garden shed in order to pay for repairs to save their house from total demolition. It's also possible we could see "Vientiane in Love" from the Communist Southeast Asian nation of LAOS. It's an omnibus of love stories from some of the countries up-and-coming directors.

NEXT WEEK: GROUP 4: MACEDONIA to ROMANIA