WESTERN EUROPE PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Feature Film 2027

And here's the last batch of countries from Western Europe, including CYPRUS, which has promised to send a film this year for the first time. 

Austria, Belgium, Germany and Switzerland have already announced their candidates, while the Netherlands has published a list of the six films that have registered. Denmark, Norway, Portugal and Sweden have announced official shortlists, and there is also a rumored Spanish "longlist" floating around. France and Spain are expected to announce shortlists in the coming weeks. 

Austria- Every year, there’s one country that announces their submission before I’ve had a chance to research it….This year, that was Austria, which announced B&W Berlinale Best Actress winner “Rose”, starring Sandra Huller, as their submission. I probably would have predicted “Four Minus Three” (also from Berlin) but we’ll never know. “Rose”, a 17^th century period drama about a woman (Huller) posing as a male soldier, is certainly a very strong choice and director Markus Schleinzer has come close to representing Austria in the past ("Michael" is particularly good). I’m also excited to see “Blood Countess”, starring Isabelle Huppert as the legendary (vampire?) serial killer Countess Bathory despite wildly uneven reviews.

Belgium- “Coward" UPDATE: I wrote this earlier this week, before "Coward" was selected as their official entry. 

The Kingdom of Belgium has a more complicated selection process than most countries since they have two distinct Film Associations that run themselves basically as two different countries – one based in French-speaking Wallonia and one in Dutch-speaking Flanders. To start with, each association forms its own Oscar selection jury. A Flemish jury watches the Flemish films and the Walloon jury watches the French films (there are quite a few films that are bilingual or mixed productions….I have no idea how they deal with those) and each association then has the right to submit one or two films to the finals, where a mixed national jury selects the final Belgian candidate. Unlike most Western European countries, Belgium does not reveal the names of the finalists. 

This year, I expect the Flemish films will be Lukas Dhont’s “Coward” (Cannes) and lesbian drama “Julian”, which dominated the Flemish Film Awards, though they could easily replace “Julian” with “The Soundman”, about a young Jewish man in 1940 Belgium....but “Coward” is the clear Flemish frontrunner.  From the French-speaking region, I expect the finalists will be Michael Roskam’s “Le faux soir” (Roskam is Flemish but the film is in French and the WBImages website indicates it's a majority Wallon production) and “We Believe You”, which swept this year’s Magritte Awards......though it could also be “Adam’s Interest” (by the director of the Oscar-shortlisted but largely forgotten “Playground”) or “Diane in the Loop” (Venice)….So it looks like it’s Dhont versus Roskam! Both men have been nominated for Oscars before (“Close” and “Bullhead”) and both are truly "national" directors, working in both Dutch and French. “Coward” has all the buzz for its World War I story of wartime same-sex comradery and has gotten great reviews at Cannes. “Le faux soir” is a baity WWII "true story", about how a newspaper in Nazi-occupied Belgium printed fake editions to fool Nazi authorities, but it has two main challenges – it hasn’t premiered yet so we don’t know how good it is…and it would have to arrange a qualifying release for the Oscars. So for me, it’s in a close second place (and could opt for next year), with custody drama “We  Believe You” in a distant third. 

CYPRUS- “Hold Onto Me” Though it’s a lot bigger than Luxembourg or Malta (or Iceland or Montenegro), Cyprus has long been the only EU country that didn’t have a recognized committee for the Oscars. Apparently, local filmmakers have been complaining for years, and the Cypriot Ministry of Culture finally did the necessary paperwork and will enter this year. Most of their films are co-productions with Greece but they seem to have six eligible films at festivals this year. The two obvious frontrunners are thriller “Broken Vein” and coming-of-age drama “Hold Onto Me”. “Broken Vein” is a bigger movie, but “Hold Onto Me”, about an 11-year old trying to reconnect with her estranged mother, won the Audience Award at Sundance (a huge achievement for Cyprus) as well as Best Cypriot Film at the local festival. It’s also got Ministry backing while “Broken Vein"'s director has been based in Greece for years (see GREECE). Welcome to Hollywood, Cyprus!

 

Denmark- “What Lies Between Us” AMPAS loves Denmark. Last year was a rare year that they weren’t shortlisted…and yet they still won an Oscar when “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (deservedly) won Best Documentary Feature instead. Like Norway and Sweden, Denmark always releases a three-film shortlist. I correctly predicted that “What Lies Between Us” and “Woman Unknown” would make the list easily, with half a dozen other titles trying to get that final slot. I was pretty sure it would be one of five options- uncomfortable family dramas “Cute” (San Sebastian) and “The Guest” (Karlovy Vary) starring Trine Dyrholm, plus Yugoslav immigration drama “Home” (Rotterdam), documentary “Rescue” (Toronto), and gay Danish/Faroese horror-drama “No Rest for the Wicked”. In the end, I predicted “The Guest” would get the final place on the shortlist but instead it went to "Home". 

Denmark will announce its final candidate on September 25. Both Danish frontrunners are hoping for automatic entries to the Oscars before that, at Venice (“Woman Unknown”, September 12) and Toronto (“What Lies Between Us”, September 20) but that's statistically unlikely, so one of these two will surely represent the Kingdom this year. May el-Toukhy is one of the few Danish directors to strike out at the Oscars in recent years - “Queen of Hearts” was good but it was one of just three Danish films since 2010 that completely struck out.....so they may hesitate to give her a second chance. I’m pretty sure this will go to “What Lies Between Us”, about a middle-class family trying to protect their underage son when he is accused of participating in a terrible sexual assault. If it wins in Toronto, then el-Toukhy’s period drama, about a post-WWII nanny harboring a secret, will go. "Home" is extremely unlikely.  

Faroe Islands- "Birita" Cyprus has promised to enter the race this year. Could we also see a debut from the Faroe Islands (pop: 57,000)? The Faroe Islands is a country within the Kingdom of Denmark. It has a political status similar to Greenland, with its own language, currency, flag, and sports teams. Last year, they began to submit films for the Nordic Film Prize (where each country is allowed one film) and unexpectedly won the award. This year's Nordic Film Prize candidate from the Faroe Islands is a documentary called "Birita", about a theatrical family who decide to make a film starring their mother, who suffers from Alzheimers.

Finland- “Tell Everyone” Finland has a wide-open race with six previously submitted directors in the running: Alli Haapasalo (selected in 2022), Klaus Härö (2003, 2005, 2009 and 2015), Antti Jokinen (2012), Dome Karukoski (2008 and 2017), Aleksi Salmenperä (2004 and 2007) and Selma Vilhunen (2019).....plus some other very good options. I think the five frontrunners (in alphabetical order) are: (1)- “Blue Baby” (Härö), a soon-to-be-released drama about a nurse torn between caring for a sick infant and her commitmetto a labor strike, (2)- “Hippo Love” (Karukoski), a comedy-drama about an unhappily married man connecting with a beautiful woman at a wedding, (3)- “The Kidnapping of the President”, a black comedy about a far-right terror group kidnapping the new Finnish president in 1930, (4)- “The Reading Club of Kabul”, a documentary about Afghan women, and (5)-  “Tell Everyone” (Haapasalo), the true story of Finnish women cruelly exiled to a remote island in the 1890s for routine female medical issues. The only Finnish film at a major film festival this year was horror-drama “Nightborn” (co-starring Rupert Grint from the Harry Potter movies!). It competed in Berlin but won’t be released until November (and has a lot of English?) so it’s not eligible. Finland picked a fun comedy last year but this year I think this will come down to the two most serious entries- “Blue Baby” and “Tell Everyone”. Both directors have been picked before and the decision will probably come down to how well “Blue Baby” is received when it premieres in early September. “Tell Everyone” is supposed to be very good but it's said to be a very grim, depressing and difficult film….In the end, I think that’s the one Finland will choose. 

France- "La Gradiva" France, as always, has a difficult decision. And, as always, no matter what they choose, people will get angry at them. That's what happens when you have the world's greatest film industry in the non-English-speaking world. This year, everyone is watching to see if they will pick Cannes Grand Prix winner "Minotaur", a Russian film made by two-time Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. If they do, it will be France's second submission in a row made by a foreign director, and its third film in a row not in the French language. For French directors making great films, that has to sting. 

It's very possible they'll pick "Minotaur"....It's eligible. But I think they'll want to reward a French director this year. Ironically, the favorite this year was Iranian director Asghar Farhadi and megastar Isabelle Huppert...but "Parallel Tales" flopped with critics so that's likely out of the running. For actual French films, I hear people talking about "Good Little Soldier" (Venice), "Iron Boy", "La Gradiva" (Cannes), "A Man of His Time" (Cannes), "Moulin" (Cannes; by Hungarian Oscar winner Laszlo Nemes) "The Rays and Shadows" and the two-part deGaulle biopics. Of these options, "La Gradiva" and "Of Rays and Shadows" seem to have the best reviews and the best chance. Reviews for "Moulin" aren't good enough (and if they're going to pick a foreign director, they might as well choose Minotaur)...."Iron Boy" is a (very well-reviewed) animated film and they'd have a hard time defending that over "Minotaur" too.....The biopics of anti-American deGaulle will be of no interest to American audiences. "Rays and Shadows" is a baity film during Nazi-occupied France and the director has been shortlisted to represent France before....It will be again. But reviews for the odd "La Gradiva" are exceptionally strong. 

Germany-  "Everytime" Well, I got this one right!....I wrote the following analysis shortly after Germany announced their shortlist earlier this month: 

On August 17, Germany announced that 10 (or 11) films were under consideration to represent Germany. The eleventh film is “Minotaur”, a Russian film made in Latvia by a director exiled to France, with mostly French producers, Russian principal crew and Latvian junior crew. Although I sympathize with exiled film directors, Zvyagintsev fled to France...."Minotaur" is not a German film and it should not be allowed to represent Germany. German Films announced that its spot on the list was “provisional” while they wait for a determination of its eligibility. I think AMPAS will tell them that France should submit it instead…but they’re inconsistent on that point. Anyway, by the rules it’s not eligible so here's my ranking of the ten actual German films on the list:

Strongly in the Running-

1. “Everytime” (Winner, Cannes UCR)

2. “Oh This Unspeakable Void” (Bronze Medal at the German Film Awards behind “Sound of Falling” and “Yellow Letters”)

3. “Prosecution” (Winner, Berlin Panorama)

Dark Horses-        

4. “Visitation” (by the 87-year Oscar-winning director of “The Tin Drum” in 1980)

5. “No Good Men” (Opening Film at Berlin)

In the Middle-          

6. “Dreamed Adventure” (Jury Prize, Cannes)

7. “The Trial of Hein” (Berlin)

8. “23,000 Lives” (Netflix)

Happy to Be on the List-      

9. “You Believe in Angels, Herr Drowak?” (Shanghai)

10. “Babystar” (Toronto)

Overall, it’s a very strong list but let’s just look at the top half: (in alphabetical order)

-          “Everytime” arguably has the best reviews on the list (it has the highest Letterboxd score...and that includes “Minotaur”). I understand it's about a family’s guilt over some sort of terrible accident (I am trying to read as little about the film as possible before I see it) and it won the Un Certain Regard category at Cannes. But working against it?….it’s a majority Austrian film and people say it’s fucking confusing and very Oscar “unfriendly”.

-        “No Good Men”, the only genuine comedy on the list (though it’s really a textbook example of a “tragicomedy)….This “Afghan rom-com” was made by Shahrbanoo Sadat, a feminist Afghan filmmaker who fled to Germany in 2021 and who made this film entirely in Germany. I absolutely loved it…and I would love to see this film represent Germany (or, preferably, Afghanistan) though it’s probably a little too light. Still, I encourage people to search it out. I laughed, I cried, I came away satisfied  and curious to know more about the situation in Afghanistan. 

-        “Oh This Unspeakable Void”, another so-called “tragicomedy”...."Void" is about a 20-year old music student moving in with his eccentric grandparents. It is the crowdpleasing choice and it has been a critical and box-office success. While Germany usually goes “heavy” at the Oscars, lighter films like “I’m Your Man” have been submitted and shortlisted. But it’s tough for comedies to compete.

-        “Prosecution”, an angry courtroom drama, won Berlin’s Panorama section for its story of a German woman of Korean descent facing off against racism by taking far-right activists to court. Reviews have been very good though I’ve heard it’s confusing for those who aren't familiar with Germany’s court system. (Sounds like the underrated “I Just Didn’t Do It”, which repped Japan in 2007).

      Finally, “Visitation” is Germany's “old-school” option. First of all, the plot sounds like an AI-generated version of “German Oscar nominee”; it follows seven decades of German history through the lens of Nazism, World War II, Communism and the fall of the Berlin Wall. 87-year old Volker Schlöndorff won Germany its first Oscar nearly fifty years ago for “The Tin Drum” and this is likely his final film. Will sentimentality lead Germany to pick it over better-reviewed films? In the 80s and 90s, this sort of film would have been nominated easily…Could a large number of older AMPAS voters still get it to the shortlist? 

    Some are predicting Bulgarian crime drama "The Dreamed Adventure". It admittedly won the Cannes Jury Prize but reviews are the most divisive of any film on the list. 

        This is a tough one! But I’m predicting “Everytime”. It could easily be “Unspeakable Void” or “Prosecution” if they want a genuinely German (not Austrian) film.  

Greece- “Patty is Such a Girly Name” So, Greece established their national Film Awards (the “Iris” Awards) in 2010. Since then, the Iris award for Best Picture and the Greek Oscar submission matched up 9 out of 16 times. It went to an Iris Best Picture nominee six more times (including “Murderess”, which was the default winner when Iris winner “Animal” very publicly boycotted the Oscar selection), while in 2019 it unexpectedly went to the little-known winner of the Iris for Best Documentary Feature (“When Tomatoes Met Wagner”). In 2026, sports drama “Patty is Such a Girly Name” dominated the Iris Awards, making it the clear favorite. Fellow Best Picture nominees “Beachcomber”, “Bearcave”, “Broken Vein” and “Life in a Beat” all won major awards, so they all technically have a chance. With the possible exception of “A Day in the Life of Jo” - soon to premiere in Venice - I don’t see any other serious options for Greece. Sports drama “Patty”, about a young female judo athlete, won the top three awards (Best Picture, Director and Screenplay) so it’s definitely the favorite – though “Knifer”, “Son of Sofia” and “Suntan” did too and they were not selected. Thriller “Broken Vein” (also a possibility for CYPRUS) actually looks much more accessible than “Patty” and director Economides (a Greek Cypriot who has lived in Greece for decades) has come close before…So each of these films have a 50-50 shot….”Life in a Beat”, about a down-on-her-luck pregnant woman, and “A Day in the Life of Jo”, about a teenager’s last day of life, are real dark horses, while "Beachcomber" (a boat-builder) and "Bearcave" ( a queer drama) are likely out of their league. 

GREENLAND- “Our Flag” Greenland returned to the Oscars last year after a 13-year break with “Walls: Akinni Inuk”, a quiet but really wonderful prison documentary that I highly recommend. This year, they could send “Our Flag” (CPX:DOX), a spare 51-minute documentary about the origins of the Greenlandic flag, which was adopted in 1985 as a sign of the territory’s budding nationalism. An even better choice would be entertaining football documentary “No Place for Football”, although the directors are American. 

Iceland- “The Ground Beneath Our Feet” Little Iceland is the only Nordic country that has never sent a documentary to the Oscars. That’s likely to change this year because the two frontrunners are “Amongst the Birds” (CPH: DOX), about an elderly couple and their friends taking care of a huge colony of migrating ducks, and “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”, a popular documentary about the residents of Reykjavik’s oldest nursing home (It also won Best Documentary at the 2026 Eddas). It’s difficult to know which of these two they’ll like better but I’m predicting “The Ground Beneath Our Feet”. Egalitarian, feminist Iceland has only chosen one female-helmed film in the past 30 years….maybe that will help “Ground”? If they simply don’t like documentaries, they will have to go with horror-thriller “Disturbed” or (and I really hope not) Hlynur Palmason’s weird new 61-minute “Joan of Arc” a sort of companion piece to the dull “The Love That Remains” about kids shooting arrows at a statue (?!). 

IRELAND- “A Quiet Love” Ireland starting sending films to the Oscars in 2007 and have submitted more or less regularly since 2014. Irish-language film production is up and the majority of their submissions were made in Irish, although they’ve also submitted Irish-made documentaries made in Lebanon, Palestine and Ukraine, and fiction features set in Cuba and the former Yugoslavia. This year, they have three good Irish-language options- “Aontas”, an all-women heist noir thriller told backwards…..murder mystery “The Drowned”....and “A Quiet Love”, a documentary about three deaf couples and the first-ever film made in Irish Sign Language. Their fourth option, “The Siege of Paradise” (Tribeca), is an Italian-language documentary about over-tourism in Cinque Terre....but it was made by the same director as last year…and most countries like to spread the wealth. I’m personally hoping they choose one of the thrillers in the beautiful Irish language….but I’m expecting “A Quiet Love” will be Garry Keane’s third doc to go to the Oscars for Ireland, following "Gaza" and the Oscar-worthy "In the Shadow of Beirut". “Aontas”, which looks fascinating, is the one I most want to see. 

Italy- "La grazia" I'm waiting until Italy announces its longlist, sometime around September 17. But I have a feeling it could be Paolo Sorrentino's "La grazia"....However, several big-name directors (Nanni Moretti, Gianni Amelio, Mario Martone) and others have new films premiering in Venice and rolling into Italian cinemas in the coming weeks. 

UPDATE, September 23- So, Italy released their "longlist" which, as usual, is the longest of any country - 21 films. Of these 21, only seven look like they'll have any impact so let's look at this "top third"- (1)- "Children of the Monkey" (Venice), "Per te", "Primavera" (Toronto '25), "Serpenti" (Venice Spotlight), "The Spiral" (Venice/Toronto), "Sweetheart" (Locarno '25) and "Three Goodbyes" (Toronto '25). I was planning to predict relationship drama "Three Goodbyes", which arguably has the best reviews (3.72 on Letterboxd...by far the highest of the group) and a recognizable star in Alba Rohrwacher, but the film has a (well-known) Spanish director and Italy is one of those countries that I think is still sensitive about nationality. So, I've decided to go with "Children of the Monkey", about a man with a handicapped son who develops a relationship with a nephew and deals with the guilt that comes with enjoying a "normal" kid better. But dark psychological thriller "The Spiral" and period drama "Primavera" are also possible. 

Luxembourg- “Child (Le refuge)” Little Luxembourg is most proud of its role as a “co-producer” of major films (including “It Was Just an Accident” last year) but they also produce a small number of majority Luxembourgian productions, some of which are in the Luxembourgish language. This year, they have two main contenders- (1)- “Apples & Pears” is a road movie about a shy 18-year old who follows the travel itinerary of her outgoing, extroverted sister to honor her after her tragic death; (2)- “Child” is a chilling horror-drama about mild-mannered parents who become involved with criminal organ trafficking networks to save the life of their young child. “Child” is the feature debut of the director of “The Red Suitcase”, an 18-minute short film that became the first-ever majority Luxembourg production to be nominated for an Oscar in 2023. So, they have two great, low-key options….one in the national language, and one by an actual Oscar nominee….It’s a dead heat but I predict “Child”. I heard someone predict “We’ll Find Happiness”, but director Lea Pool is Canadian and Luxembourg almost always chooses local filmmakers (the only exception was “Tel Aviv on Fire”).

MALTA- “Zejtune” Malta probably came incredibly close to the shortlist a few years ago for “Luzzu”, a really wonderful film that I was privileged to see in a Maltese cinema. Director Alex Camilleri has a new film this year, “Zejtune”, that won Best Screenplay in Tribeca. It’s about a young Maltese woman preparing to emigrate who meets an old man that starts changing her mind about her own country. It got a local release in April and it’s certain to represent Malta….if they enter. Last year, Malta had one of the most charming comedies of 2025 - “Ciao Ciao” - and the Maltese committee controversially decided to send nothing at all. "Ciao Ciao" was fantastic and the decision was disgraceful! 

Netherlands- “Our Girls” Once an Oscar powerhouse in the 1990s, the Netherlands hasn’t been nominated since 2003 and hasn’t been shortlisted since 2014. They announced a few weeks ago that six films had registered to represent the Netherlands and they have a bit of an odd situation. Last year, the favorite was “Our Girls” by Mike van Diem, the last director to bring home an Oscar for the Netherlands way back in 1998 (“Character”). Van Diem has only made three films since then and “Our Girls” has gotten very strong reviews for its dark look at two close families whose lives are changed after their teenaged daughters are involved in a near-fatal accident. Although it was the clear favorite last year, the Netherlands surprised everyone by picking “Reedland’, an odd, arty mystery with poor reviews. It appears that the clever producers of “Our Girls” quickly canceled the film's September 2025 Oscar-qualifying release and resubmitted it this year, where it again is the favorite. This year’s six contenders include three dramas- “Our Girls”, plus “A Family” (Berlin, 14+) and “Honestly, I’m Fine”- plus two documentaries – “House of Hope” (Palestine) and “Paikar” (an Afghan family), plus an amateurish children’s cartoon based on a TV show (“Ellie the Elephant”). Other than “Ellie”, these are all very well-regarded films. Since last year, “Our Girls” won Best Film at the Netherlands’ Golden Calf Awards and did very well at the box-office. How will the committee react to them entering a second time? I’m pretty confident “Our Girls” will go, but if the committee stands by their decision from last year,then Palestinian documentary “House of Hope” could stand to benefit. Last year's AMPAS International Film committee picked three Palestinian films for their 15-film shortlist last year so “House of Hope”, made by a Dutch director at a school in the Occupied West Bank, is also very possible…though “Our Girls” would clearly be a better choice. In a distant 3^rd place: “A Family”.

Norway- “Growth of the Soil” Norway is Oscar reigning champion this year, for the first time in Oscar history. Last year, "Sentimental Value" made Norway the third Nordic country to win the International Feature award. I was going to predict “Kjærast” by Erik Poppe, but Norway announced its shortlist on August 19 and it’s not on it. I’m glad I didn’t spend too much time researching Norway because two of their three shortlisted films are doing qualifying releases and I would not have expected them to be eligible. The three finalists are (1)- “Growth of the Soil” (Toronto), an old-fashioned drama set in rural Norway, and an adaptation of a Nobel Prize-winning novel, (2)- “Low Expectations” (Cannes), about a depressed musician who returns to her hometown after her career falls apart, and (3)- “Trango”, a Himalayan mountain climbing documentary. “Growth of the Soil” looks the most impressive and is by an established director….It also looks dreadfully old-fashioned. “Trango” was successful at the box-office but the Norwegian committee may remember that another man-against-nature documentary ("Songs of Earth") was the only time in the past six years they weren't strong in this category ("War Sailor" wasn't shortlisted but was rumored to be incredibly close). I’m actually not sure which of the two they’ll pick....But "Trango" just lost Best Documentary Feature at the Norwegian Amanda Awards (it was favored to win) so for now I’ll guess “Growth of the Soil”. 

PORTUGAL- “Maria Vitoria” Portugal holds the record for the most submissions (42!) without getting nominated (or even shortlisted). Last week, their Academy announced a shortlist of six little-known dramas - “18 Holes to Paradise” (about a large provincial family), “First Person Plural” (a weird drama about a couple on a post-COVID anniversary trip), “Maria Vitória” (about a female footballer and her estranged brother), “Projecto Global” (a political thriller about a far-left terrorist group), “The Scent of Things Remembered” (about a Portuguese war veteran and his African caretaker) and “Terra Vil” (a 12-year old and his alcoholic father). With no frontrunner, I could see any of these films (except “First Person Plural” which has pretty terrible reviews) representing Portugal. Thriller “Projecto Global” is the “big” and expensive (by Portuguese standards, anyway) option, while the relatively low-key “Maria Vitoria” arguably has the strongest reviews, “Scent of Things Remembered” won most of the Audience Awards at the national Sophia Awards, showing popular local support, while “18 Holes to Paradise” has actress starpower, a director who has been shortlisted before (“Mosquito”) and looks far more accessible than the other three. None of them seem likely to break the Portuguese Oscar curse. I’m not sure which of these four they’ll pick…it looks like a 4-way tie. Out of curiosity, I asked Google Gemini and it said “Projecto Global” would be picked. But that looks too action-packed for a Portuguese Academy that likes their films slow and introspective….So, I’m predicting the documentary-style cinema verite of the well-reviewed “Maria Vitoria”, though I’m personally hoping it’s “18 Holes to Paradise” since it’s the only one I actually want to see. I was surprised to see "I Only Rest in the Storm" (Cannes), "Lavagante" and "Night Passengers" absent from the shortlist. Did they not apply?

Spain- “La bola negra” There’s a nine-film “longlist” of Spanish films that have supposedly registered....Another list says there are 13…I’m not sure if either of these are real but let’s assume the 9-film list is because three of the films seem 95% locked to be on Spain’s traditional 3-film shortlist, which is scheduled to be announced next week, on Thursday, September 3.  These three are: “La Bola Negra” and “The Beloved” (both from Cannes, and each co-starring one half of power couple Bardem and Cruz) plus Goya winner “Sundays”.  

I’d find it hard to believe that any of the other six (ten?) rumored films have any chance. Almodovar’s “Bitter Christmas” was in Cannes Main Competition alongside “Beloved” and “La Bola Negra”…but reviews have been unenthusiastic (but I still want to see it!) and Almodovar is also a producer for “La Bola Negra” so he won’t be “snubbed”. The three character studies- “La luz” (a priest with a secret), “Corredora” (a female athlete) and “Viva” (a cancer survivor)-  are well-liked…but just not as well-liked as “Beloved”, “Bola” and “Sundays”. “5 dias con Lara” (a transgender story) and “Dos dias” (a man with Alzheimers) have very good reviews…but they’re such small and obscure titles that they are running uphill. But if there is a tie and a fourth film goes through (as happened once in 2013) or if there is a shock upset, I expect “Dos dias” could go through. The longer rumored list includes "Another League", "I Won't Die for Love", "A Son" and "This Body of Mine"....all with good reviews but unlikely to dislodge the Top 3. 

But the three frontrunners are going to be a bloodbath. “La bola Negra”, an epic film about the LGBT experience during three eras of Spanish history has the best overall reviews, a Best Director award from Cannes, and the most buzz, as well as Oscar royalty Glenn Close and Penelope Cruz in the supporting cast. “Beloved” is a father-daughter drama starring Javier Bardem as a temperamental film director, and is directed by Oscar nominee Rodrigo Sorogoyen, who was stupidly not sent in 2022 (“Las bestias”) when the Spanish Academy sent the sleep-inducing Carla Simon a second time. So he is owed a spot. “Sundays” won Best Picture, Director, Actress and Screenplay at the Goyas (defeating last year’s submission and Oscar nominee “Sirat”) for its story of a driven young woman who shocks her family by announcing she is joining a convent, showing strong industry support. So it’s an embarrassment of riches! All three would make a great submission for Spain. And by choosing one, Spain will open the floodgates to complaints from fans of the other two. “La bola negra” is the favorite and my prediction; but I wouldn’t count out “The Beloved” if Javier starts to get Best Actor buzz. 

SWEDEN- “Brace Your Heart” This was clearly a weak year for Sweden. Although the eligibility period is October 1, 2025-September 30, 2026, they didn’t shortlist any films released in the first 11 ½ months of the year. I didn’t do too much research before they announced their shortlist on August 20, but I was predicting they’d shortlist “Brace Your Heart”, "The Quiet Beekeeper" and “The Swedish Connection” with “Brace Your Heart” winning going to the Oscars. They did shortlist Sami drama “Brace Your Heart” (Toronto), but the other two films on the list won’t actually be widely released until later this year - (1)- “Adult Supervision” (aka "Archipelago"), a comedy-drama about three fathers premiering in October, starring Gustaf Skarsgård (the less famous brother of Alexander and Bill; he starred in “The Vikings”) and Fares Fares; and (2)- “Bloody Men”, premiering in November, about a 7-year old and his fantasy world in 1980s Sweden.  Nobody has seen any of these three movies, so it’s impossible to know which one is best. But since “Brace Your Heart”, a drama about a young woman who inherits her father’s reindeer herd, actually got picked for a major festival, that’s my prediction. It’s in the minority Sami language and is the most serious of the three entries. “Bloody Men”, based on a popular novel, should come second or could win if "Brace Your Heart" wins the Platform Award in Toronto. “Adult Supervision” seems to be the longest shot…but who knows? 

Switzerland- “Who Is Still Alive” It must have been a weak year for Switzerland. They shortlisted three films, all made by directors from the country’s French-speaking sector, and only one was actually made in Switzerland. The three finalists were “Cosmos”, an overlong Mexican drama in Spanish, “Silent Rebellion”, a period drama set during WWII Switzerland about a village’s hostile reception to refugees fleeing Nazi-occupied France, and “Who Is Still Alive”, an Arabic-language documentary about nine survivors of Israeli strikes in Gaza. This was clearly decided between “Rebellion” and “Who Is Still Alive”, both of which premiered in Venice last year…but “Who Is Still Alive” had far better reviews and is clearly the more topical choice. After the shortlist announcement, it was obvious that this would be the film that would be picked, and Switzerland confirmed it on August 13. I've seen "Who Is Still Alive", which is an important film that highlights the lives of ordinary Gazans (including social media influencers, artists, doctors and filmmakers) and showing the world that the territory was much more than a Hamas stronghold.     

United Kingdom- “Effi o Blaenau” Until around 2003, the Oscars had a rule that International Film submissions had to be made in a language indigenous to the submitting country. Because of this, from 1993-2008, all UK submissions were made by Welsh filmmakers and were at least partially in the Welsh language. Asif Kapadia (who later won an Oscar for "Amy") was selected by the UK for the Hindi-language film "The Warrior" but it was disqualified and this was one of the instances that led to the rule change. Since the rule change, BAFTA now usually sends films made by British filmmakers working outside the UK. Since 2009, only two of the 14 British submissions were Welsh and there have been zero since 2015. The other twelve films were set in Afghanistan, Germany, India, Iran (twice), Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey (twice) and Zambia. Seven of these were made by diaspora filmmakers. 

Welsh cinema has been on the rise recently and I’m predicting Britain returns to Wales for the first time in a decade with “Effi o Blaenau”, probably the best-reviewed Welsh film in years and made by a well-respected filmmaker who repped the UK in 2011. Based on a Greek tragedy, it’s about a hard-partying girl from the countryside who experiences a major life change. This would be a strong acknowledgement of local Celtic cinema in a country that has recently preferred stories from the Global South. Also very possible: documentary “One in a Million”, following the life of a Syrian refugee girl between the ages of 11 and 21 and “Cielo”, a UK production made in Bolivia following a little Indigenous girl through Fellini-esque magical realism. Less likely: documentary “Something Familiar” (a Romanian adoptee) and docudrama “Without Permission” (made in Iran by the director of their 2022 submission “Winners”). 

OSCARS 2023: Predictions for Western Europe

 And here's the final batch of 20 countries.....This is cheating a little because two countries (Germany, Ireland and Switzerland) have already announced and two more have announced their shortlists (Netherlands and Spain). 

 AUSTRIA- “Corsage” Austria will probably go with costume biopic “Corsage”, which won Best Actress for Vicky Krieps at Cannes (Un Certain Regard) for playing a distinguished 19^th century Empress. Reviews have been good and it looks like the film will be getting an Oscar-qualifying release in the U.S. to compete in the tech categories. Its main competition comes from “Rimini”, a dramedy about a man returning to his childhood home after the death of his mother. It competed at Berlinale and won Best Picture at the Diagonale Awards for Austrian cinema, over last year's critical darling “Great Freedom”. Both directors have just missed out on representing Austria in past years. Dark horses: WWII revenge drama “Schachten”, Italian-language drama “Vera” (due to premiere in Venice) and “Above the Ground”, about a wealthy young man who becomes a hermit.

 BELGIUM- "Close" Belgium essentially has two separate national film industries, based in the Dutch and French-speaking regions of the country. Films from the smaller French side (Wallonie) have been sent of the Oscars seven of the past ten years and the majority of this year's contenders come from there too. However, almost everyone believes that the Belgian entry will be queer adolescent drama "Close" which won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) at Cannes, from the Flemish side (Flanders). It's definitely the buzziest and most critically acclaimed Belgian film of the year and Lukas Dhont was selected four years ago. But all three Flemish directors selected in the past ten years are back with new films. Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen ("Broken Circle Breakdown") has the critically acclaimed Italian-language "Eight Mountains" (Cannes Jury Prize) while Robin Pront has discotheque drama "Zillion". From the French side, the Brothers Dardennes are back with "Tori and Lokita" (Cannes). They've been selected four times- more than any other Belgian director- but this refugee drama isn't as acclaimed as some of their other films. Other strong Walloon options include "Rebel", a drama about a Muslim family starring Lubna Azabal, "The Damned Don't Cry" (Venice Days) and boxing drama "Final Round". I think it will be "Close"....but "Eight Mountains", and possibly also "Rebel", are going to give it a run for the money. 

 DENMARK- “Forever” Denmark (pop: 6 million) is currently the most successful country in the world, in this category. In twelve years, they’ve been nominated seven times, winning twice. They’ve only failed to make the shortlist three times since then. So, despite their small size, they aim to win every year (and "Flee" would have been a better winner last year than the soporific "Drive My Car"). They’re scheduled to announce a 3-film shortlist on September 5. Although it’s a weak year and I don’t necessarily expect them to be nominated, they have plenty to choose from. I’m predicting the three shortlisted films will be “Forever”, a box-office hit about a family dealing with the unexpected loss of a family member, “Miss Viborg”, a comedy-drama about the intergenerational friendship between two dysfunctional women, and “Rose”, about a woman and her disabled sister on a road trip.  Niels Arden Oplev has been selected in 2008 for “World Apart”, so I was going to predict “Rose”, but “Forever” has gotten such strong notices at home and was selected for a major festival (San Sebastian) so I'm switching. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 19^th century period drama “As In Heaven” (Best Director, San Sebastian), Afghan documentary “Taliban Land”, WWII thriller/sequel “Out of the Darkness” or even music biopic “Bamse” (director Henrik Ruben Genz is Oscar Short Film nominee) on the shortlist. I’ve seen people mention “Holy Spider” (Swedish) and “Godland” (Icelandic), but they don’t meet the nationality requirements, while buzzy Sundance horror flick “Out of the Darkness” is mostly in English.

 FINLAND- “Girl Picture” After winning the Audience Award at Sundance, adolescent drama “Girl Picture” (Berlin, 14+) automatically went to the front of the list for Finland. “The Woodcutter Story” played at Cannes but reviews aren’t strong enough . I think “Girl” is pretty safe, but two previously selected Finnish directors have new films coming out later this year. Aleksi Salmenperä (2004, 2007) made the delightful quirky “Man’s Job” and now has “Bubble”, about a teenage girl who suspects her mother of being involved in a lesbian affair, while Aleksi Mäkelä (1999) has ice hockey drama “Laitapuolen hyökkääjä”. 

 FRANCE- TBD France is the only country in the world to have submitted every year since the creation of the category in 1956. As usual, they have dozens of films to choose from and I'll update this once France announces their shortlist on September 15. 

 GERMANY- “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” WRITTEN BEFORE GERMANY ANNOUNCED (So much for predicting a long shot). Germany announced a 9-film shortlist on August 16^th, containing mostly little-known films. Basic rom-com “Mostly Minimalistic” and “Nico”- a  spare, 79-minute "feel-good" drama about a Muslim nurse trying to becoming a karate champion- aren’t competitive, and early reviews for Til Schweiger’s grief drama “Lieber Kurt” haven’t been kind. Three more films on the list- feminist “Talking about the Weather”, quirky pandemic thriller “We Might as Well be Dead” (both from Berlin), and “No One’s With the Calves” (Locarno 2021), a drama about rural boredom, all appear to be too small to represent a country as important as Germany. So that leaves just three serious contenders- two more Berlin entries- WWII drama “The Forger” and black comedy “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” (winner, Best Actress and Screenplay)- and the hotly anticipated Netflix WWI movie, “All Quiet on the Western Front”, with Daniel Brühl. “Forger”, about a young German Jew living life to the fullest via a fake identity in 1940s Berlin, has positive but not outstanding reviews…but it’s exactly the sort of film that traditionally nets Germany nominations or at least spots on the shortlist (like "Two Lives" or the mediocre “Labyrinth of Lies”). “Rabiye Kurnaz”, about a mild-mannered immigrant housewife who fights to get her dim-witted son released from Guantanamo Bay, has a great U.S. hook (former President Bush likely has few fans in the Academy) and it won second prize at the German Film Awards (winner “Dear Thomas” was on Germany's shortlist last year but wasn’t picked). Right now, "Rabiye" is the frontrunner. But it all depends on the reaction to “All Quiet”, which will premiere in Toronto before moving to Netflix. Told from the perspective of a terrified German soldier, this is serious competition for the much lighter “Rabiye”…and Germany already sent a rare comedy last year. I know that this is probably going to be “All Quiet” but I’m keeping “Rabiye” as my prediction for now until people can actually tell me if that film is any good or not. 

 GREECE - “Magnetic Fields” Many people say that Greece always sends the winner of Best Picture at the Hellenic Film Awards (like Israel) but this isn't true. Although they did send “Digger” last year, that was the first time their selections matched in five years.  Still, it would be foolish to bet against this year’s winner- comedy-drama “Magnetic Fields”- which also won Best Greek Film at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (which used to go to the Oscars automatically). I’m personally hoping they pick “Dodo”, a screwball comedy by a previously selected director about a wealthy family in distress, and the only Greek film at Cannes 2022. Other options: crime drama “Pack of Sheep” and immigrant drama “Holy Emy” both lost Best Picture to “Magnetic Fields”, while the challenging “The City and the City”, about Greece’s lost Jewish community, played at a Berlinale sidebar; “Purgatory” tells seven stories about modern love; Holocaust documentary “The Students of Umberto Primo” looks at Greece under Nazi occupation.

 GREENLAND- “Into the Ice” Greenland, the smallest country in the competition (pop: 60,000) hasn’t sent a film since 2012. I don’t think they have anything eligible but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Into the Ice”, an intriguing Danish documentary (Variety said it made science “sexy”) about the melting ice caps in Greenland. 

 ICELAND- “Beautiful Beings” With two critically acclaimed films eligible, Iceland will have to make the difficult decision of Berlin versus Cannes. Brutal youth drama “Beautiful Beings” premiered at Berlin Panorama while period piece “Godland” premiered in Un Certain Regard at Cannes. The two films share some producers and crew in common who will be celebrating regardless of which film gets picked. I’m predicting “Beautiful Beings”, which has slightly strong reviews and also because director Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson was expected to represent Iceland in 2017 for “Heartstone” but was unexpectedly snubbed for the cute but forgettable comedy “Under the Tree”. The director of “Godland”, about a 19^th century Danish priest who slowly goes mad after being sent to a remote Icelandic village, has been picked once before for “A White White Day” (which I did not like). It’s a more challenging film and tiny Iceland will want to maximize its chances of making the shortlist two years in a row. “Beings” will have a better shot. Unlikely but possible: period drama “Reply to a Letter from Helga”, about a forbidden love affair, and raucous hit comedy sequel “The Very Last Fishing Trip”. 

 IRELAND- “The Quiet Girl” (WRITTEN BEFORE THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT) Few countries have an easier choice this year than Ireland. “The Quiet Girl” is primarily in Irish, it has gotten a cinematic release, it won two awards at a major film festival (in the K+ Section in Berlin), and has done extremely well with critics and audiences. To top it all off, it just won Best Picture at the Irish Film Awards, defeating the favorite, “Belfast”. Ireland doesn’t produce many films in Irish, so this film about a young girl thriving in a foster case home who discovers a secret, is a shoo-in. 

 ITALY- “Nostalgia”  Italy has more wins in this category than any other country, but they’ve only been nominated three times in the past 20 years (twice for Paolo Sorrentino, and once for “Don’t Tell”, probably the most forgettable nominee I’ve ever seen).  The Italian Academy prefers established directors. They’ve never selected a new director, and in the past twenty years, 17 of their Oscar submissions were made by directors who represented the country more than once (and one of the three others- Claudio Caligari- was selected mostly out of sympathy after he died unexpectedly). So the Italians definitely play favorites. In fact, they've only chose a really young, up-and-coming director  once in recent memory- Jonas Carpignano (“A Ciambra”). In the past 30 years, they’ve also only picked one woman (who was their second choice after their first choice was disqualified). So we’re looking for a new movie by an older, established, male director...and we have lots of movies that fit the profile. This year we have new movies by Gianni Amelio (selected 4 times w/1 Oscar nom; “Lord of the Ants”; Venice), Pupi Avati (selected once; “Dante”), Marco Bellocchio (selected three times; “Exterior Night”), Emanuele Crialese (selected twice; “L”Immensita; Venice), Mario Martone (“Nostalgia”, Cannes), Michele Placido (“Caravaggio’s Shadow”), Paolo Taviani (selected twice, “Leonora Addio”, Berlin), and Paolo Virzi (selected twice; "Siccita”). These eight will be the frontrunners alongside Belgian co-production “Eight Mountains” (Cannes). All eight Italian directors are men over 55 (three are over 80; Taviani is 90). 

Cannes Jury Prize winner “Eight Mountains” is probably the most critically acclaimed Italian film of the year but Italy has never selected a film by a foreign director (Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen has repped Belgium twice). “Leonora Addio” has the weakest notices, but the Taviani Brothers were an institution, and this is probably 90-year old Paolo’s last film. The other two films that have been seen by critics are “Nostalgia”, which is the sort of grim Neopolitan drama that the Italian Academy loves, and “Exterior Night”, which is a 5 ½ hour film that premiered at a Cannes sidebar which will be re-edited into a TV series. The other five will premiere later this year: two costume biopics, 14th century “Dante” and 16th century “Caravaggio’s Shadow”, LGBT drama “Lord of the Ants” and two new films headlined by big stars- family drama “L’Immensita” (with Penelope Cruz) and comedy “Siccita” (with Monica Bellucci). Mario Martone is felt to be overdue (he probably came in 2^nd place at least twice) so “Nostalgia” is my prediction, although I think that the starpower of Penelope Cruz could win out if “L’immensita” wins something big at Venice. These are my two top predictions, although I think “Eight Mountains” and the two glossy costume dramas, “Dante” and “Caravaggio’s Shadow” will be in Italy's Top 5. Other films that could be on Italy’s (usually very long) longlist- “The Adventures of Gigi the Law”, “Cattivo Sangue”, “Chiara” (Venice), “The Code of Silence” ,“Grand Bolero”, “Il pataffio”, “Princess”, “Small Body”, and documentary “Into My Name”.

 LUXEMBOURG- “The Way to Happiness” Most of Luxembourg’s films are co-productions but ever since they were disqualified over nationality issues in 2006, they’ve always made sure to send films by local Luxembourgian directors- with one controversial exception. In 2019, they sent Israeli film “Tel Aviv on Fire” (which I loved!) and- surprisingly- it was accepted. But they prefer local Luxembourgian directors, which is why I’m predicting “The Way to Happiness” a French-language dramedy by Nicolas Steil that’s been compared (mostly unfavorably) to “Life is Beautiful”. It’s about a Holocaust survivor forced to confront his past when a foreign director decides to make a movie about his life. Reviews have been mixed but I suspect American audiences will be more forgiving than European ones. There’s also Italian-language “Lost Flowers”, a personal documentary about the COVID pandemic and German-language coming-of-age dramedy “Raspberries with Mustard”. Their directors aren’t local but supposedly they’re majority LUX productions. If Luxembourg wants to pull a “Tel Aviv on Fire” and claim a film rejected by its host country, they could consider “A Fleeting Encounter” (Switzerland) or “Where is Anne Frank?” (Israel) which have Luxembourgian producers, or perhaps “Corsage”, which I assume will be claimed by Austria. 

 MALTA- “Uwijja” Tiny Malta deserved to make the Oscar shortlist last year for “Luzzu”…but they didn’t because the Oscar committee apparently has no taste. The only Maltese-language feature I know of this year is “Uwijja”, about a man who goes missing, setting into play a tragic series of events. Rebecca Cremona, who directed their first-ever submission, has a new WWII epic in production and will probably rep the island next year. 

 NETHERLANDS- “Sea of Time” In August, the Netherlands announced it would be considering eleven, mostly very obscure films. I’ll probably get in trouble for saying this but it saddens me that there aren’t many authentically “Dutch” films on the list- one is in Italian, one in Russian, one in Persian, one in Arabic, with one about Senegalese asylum seekers….That leaves only half the list actually about Dutch subjects. But that’s their prerogative…And, in fact, the two frontrunners- “Sea of Time” and “Pink Moon”- actually are authentically Dutch stories. “Sea of Time” was selected to open the Nederlands Film Festival later this year and is a grand film in the style of their submissions in the 90s and 00s (back when the Netherlands used to get nominated!! That hasn’t happened in twenty years….). It focuses on a loving couple who lose their child on a boating trip in the 70s, and then meet up again forty years later. “Pink Moon”, which got strong reviews in Tribeca, sounds more like my cup of tea- it’s a darkly comic drama about an elderly man who informs his daughter that he wishes to peacefully end his own life. But it’s a wide-open race. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Netherlands went with the sentimental choice- “Along the Way”- a drama about Afghan refugees starring two real-life twin sisters (director Mijke de Jong has been selected twice before) or “El Houb”, an LGBT film about a gay Moroccan-Dutch man coming out to his conservative family (including Lubna Azabal, who also co-stars as the wife in Morocco’s similarly themed “Blue Caftan”). I think it will be one of these four. Unlikely but possible: moral dilemma drama “The Photo Camera”, unreleased family drama “Narcosis” and Soviet POW documentary “Turn Your Body to the Sun”. Out of luck: “Shabu” (Berlin 14+), an upbeat documentary about a Surinamese-Dutch teen, Italian-language crime drama “Last Ride of the Wolves” and two “kids in peril” family films, “Bigman” and “Totem”. 

 NORWAY- “Narvik” Norway had a banner year last year, getting an Oscar nomination for “Worst Person in the World” (which I was hoping would win over the tedious and overrated mess of “Drive My Car”) after missing much deserved nominations for “Hope” and “What Will People Say”. The critically acclaimed “The Innocents” and “Nothing To Laugh About” didn’t even make the Norwegian shortlist last year, which shows what a strong year it was for Norwegian cinema. This year is a bit thinner, and I don’t see many films with a chance to make their traditional three-film shortlist. Favorite “Narvik”, about Norway fighting the Nazis, will certainly be on the list. I expect it will be joined by comedy “Sick of Myself” (Cannes UCR) and either small-town drama “A Human Position” or “Krigsseileren”, another WWII drama. Other options: Roar Uthaug is Norway’s “big-budget” director and his new monster movie “Troll” could make the shortlist, even though it won’t actually be selected; upcoming biopic “Munch” is about one of Norway’s most celebrated artists (I hate biopics); and documentary “Name of the Game” (Trond Giske) is about political corruption. 

 PORTUGAL- "Tommy Guns"- Last year, Portugal picked a movie where the director read random letters to the audience, while the camera focused off to the side, as if it was bored. The year before, they picked a plotless movie featuring a woman mumbling in the dark for over two hours. The year before that was somewhat less embarrassing; they picked a three-hour Portuguese soap opera channeling Falcon Crest. Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions (38) without ever being nominated (or shortlisted). I’m not certain they’ve ever even come close….I’ve seen nine of these 38 films; most were terrible and even the best one (“Blood of My Blood”) was a 7.5/10. Sorry Portugal. Having said that, 2022 has been a strong year for Portugal and five previously submitted directors have new films. Most people are predicting “Will-o-the-Wisp”, a weird 67-minute gay musical comedy set in the year 2069; it played at Cannes and I actually want to see it. “Remains of the Wind” (by the director of their 2019 soap opera) is supposed to be good too; it’s about a reunion of friends after 25 years. Angolan war drama “Tommy Guns” (Locarno) is probably the most acclaimed Portuguese film of the year. Angola doesn’t have a committee, but the director is Portuguese-Angolan and the film is set amidst Angola’s war for independence against Portugal. Wouldn’t it be funny if Portugal got their first nomination for a film made in another country? For the last few years, Portugal has announced a shortlist of 4-6 films before their announcement. I predict the other films on the list will be family drama “Mal Viver”, “Nothing Ever Happened”, about teens from dysfunctional families and “Alma Viva” (Cannes Critics Week), about a girl from a small village dealing with her grandmother’s death. But “Amadeo”, “The Child”, “Great Yarmouth” (too much English?) and “Revolta” could be on the list too. Not eligible: I think royal historical drama “Pedro” will count for Brazil.  Prediction: Unless they hear that Angola is forming a committee (which they should!), Portugal will grab “Tommy Guns”. 

 SPAIN- "Lullaby" (Cinco Lobitos) Spain announced their usual three-film shortlist on August 25. There were no big surprises; the list included critically-acclaimed dramas "Alcarràs" (Winner, Berlinale 2022), "The Beasts" (San Sebastian) and "Lullaby" (Berlin Panorama). All-star comedy and box-office hit "Official Competition" probably came in 4th place and will now have to hope it gets picked by Argentina. Spain has a tough choice. All three finalists are well regarded by both critics and audiences, and I'd argue that all of them could potentially make the final 15 at the Oscars. Two of the directors have been in the race for an Oscar before. In 2017, Carla Simon became the third woman and the second director working in the Catalan language to represent Spain, with "Summer 1993". In 2019, Rodrigo Sorogoyen got an Oscar nomination in the Live-Action Short category for the brilliant thriller "Mother".  Alauda Ruiz de Azúa is making her feature debut (which could hurt her since Spain usually selects established directors). Interestingly, the three directors and three films represent Spain's four main ethnic regions- "Alcarràs" is from Catalonia, "Lullaby" is from the Basque Country, and "The Beasts" was made in Galicia by a Castilian Spanish director. "Alcarràs", about a family of farmers in turmoil when their new landowner sells the property they've worked for generations, is the favorite by virtue of its Berlin win.  But although Berlin Golden Bear winners are almost always selected for the Oscars when eligible (nine times since 2000), they're not usually nominated (just 3 times out of nine).  According to websites like IMDB, Letterboxd and Rotten Tomatoes, it's mother-daughter drama "Lullaby" that has the strongest reviews. For the record, it's thriller "The Beasts" that looks like the best film, and the one I'm hoping for....but I'm pretty sure it will come third. All three films would make a strong contender for Spain but my prediction is that it's between the two women. "Alcarràs" has the box-office and the Berlin Prize. "Lullaby" has the support of Pedro Almodovar (who, despite complaining about the Spanish Academy, has been picked seven times) and the critics. The Spanish Academy votes with their hearts and often dumps the frontrunner- ask the cast and crew of "Talk to Her", "Everybody Knows" etc.....So I predict a surprise win for "Lullaby". Maybe that's because I'm still angry at Carla Simon for making me waste 95 minutes of my time watching kids play in their backyard in "Summer 1993", the worst Spanish submission I've seen yet....

 SWEDEN- "Holy Spider" Sweden usually announces a three-film shortlist before their final announcement and two of those spots are pretty much locked- Ali Abbasi's "Holy Spider" and Tarik Saleh's "Boy From Heaven". Both competed in the main competition at Cannes 2022 and won major awards, although they lost the Palme d'Or to fellow Swedish film "Triangle of Sadness" (which is in English). "Spider" is in Persian and "Heaven" is in Arabic, so I imagine Sweden would like to have one film in Swedish to round out the shortlist, and that will probably be "Burn My Letters', starring Bill Skarsgård, or "Comedy Queen", which won a Crystal Bear at Berlin in the 14+ category. It could also be Lena Olin's new film "Andra akten", LGBT documentary "Nelly & Nadine" or drama "Maya Nilo". But this is probably a race between the two Middle Eastern films (Sweden has selected films in Georgian and Russian to represent them before). "Holy Spider" won Best Actress for exiled Iranian actress Zar Amir-Ebrahimi (now based in France) while "Boy From Heaven" won Best Screenplay so it's a tight race. Serial killer thriller "Holy Spider", set in Iran, has the buzz and slightly warmer reviews so that's my prediction. 

 SWITZERLAND- “La ligne” “Piece of Sky” I was researching the nine films on Switzerland’s shortlist when they suddenly announced their submission would be the German-language “A Piece of Sky”, a tragic romance narrated by a choir (?!) that got mostly good reviews in Berlin. I’m going to mark this as “incorrect” for my predictions because I was going to predict “La ligne”, the other Swiss film in the Main Competition in Berlin, mainly because director Ursula Meier made the Oscar shortlist for “Sister”. The Swiss shortlist included five films from the German region (Winner “Piece of Sky”, plus “The Black Spider”, “Semret”, “Soul of a Beast” and “Unrest”), three films from the French region (my prediction “La ligne”, plus “Continental Drift” and “A Fleeting Encounter”) and one film from Spain (“La agua”) that seems to have no connection to Switzerland whatsoever. In terms of what films actually look interesting, I would have preferred they pick medieval horror-drama “Black Spider” (which sounds like “Sennentunschi”, one of my favorite Swiss films) or “A Fleeting Encounter”, a culture-clash drama with an international cast. 

 UNITED KINGDOM- “Winners” The UK obviously produces most of their movies in English but globalization (and the 2006 rule change allowing films in non-official languages of the host country) has meant that British directors have qualified to send films fairly regularly since 2008 (they’ve skipped three times). Before 2006, they mostly sent films in Welsh. Since then, only a quarter of entries have been Welsh films, with the rest in a motley crew of African, Asian and Middle Eastern languages, including two documentaries. If they want to go “native”, the frontrunners are two horror-dramas “The Feast” (in Welsh) and “Enys Men” (in Cornish). If they want to go with an international language, it could be “Winners” (in Persian), “The Anglistanis” (in Hindi), Afghan documentary “My Childhood, My Country” (in Persian) or “The Swimmers” (in Arabic). I was ready to predict “My Childhood, My Country”, a documentary twenty years in the making following the boy (now an adult man) from “Boy Mir”…but I think it aired on UK television first. And I fear inspiring Olympic refugee drama “The Swimmers” will have too much English to qualify. So, I think it’s between psychological horror-thriller “Enys Men” (the second feature film ever made in the dying Cornish language) and “Winners” (by an Afghan director who once represented Afghanistan), a Majidi-esque drama about two children trying to find the owner of a missing object. “Enys” has more buzz, “Winners” better reviews. I predict “Winners" will be the final submission. 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

CYPRUS is the only EU country that doesn't participate in the Oscars, although they do make a number of respectable films each year, and they did join the European Film Promotion organization in 2016. If they finally join this year, it's likely to be ".dog", about a young man getting to know his father who has just been released from prison. It was nominated for three Greek Academy Awards, winning one.