2017 Foreign Oscar Predictions- WESTERN EUROPE (17 films)

So I moved from Korea to the United States in June and then again from the United States to Pakistan in August so I didn’t have time to do my usual country-to-country Oscar predictions but I have been following the race. 

Of the 112 countries that have submitted films over the years, an incredible 88 announced that they were entering the Oscar race. 85 films were accepted, including wartorn YEMEN, which entered for the first time. Four films appear to have been disqualified, including what appear to be incredibly arbitrary and unfair disqualifications for the struggling film industries of AFGHANISTAN and ARMENIA. More on that later.

     I’ve divided the 85 official contenders into five groups this year:

I-              WESTERN EUROPE (17 films)

II-             EASTERN EUROPE (20 films)

III-            THE AMERICAS (15 films)

IV-            ASIA (18 films)

V-             AFRICA, THE MIDDLE EAST AND OCEANIA (15 films)

 NO CHANCE

17. LUXEMBOURG- “Voices from Chernobyl”

16. PORTUGAL- “Letters From War”

15. GREECE- “Chevalier”

14. AUSTRIA- “Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe”

13. UNITED KINGDOM- “Under the Shadow”

Luxembourg and Portugal are the only two Western European countries never to be nominated and that tradition will continue again this year. Tiny LUXEMBOURG has selected a feature documentary of the acclaimed but "unfilmable" novel "Voices From Chernobyl" by Nobel Prize winner Svetlana Alexievich. Told largely in French-language voice-overs, it follows the present-day lives of those who survived the Chernobyl nuclear disaster of the early 1980s. It's grim and documentaries rarely score here....Luxembourg is just happy to be represented. PORTUGAL has also selected a movie told largely in voice-overs, in this case the autobiographical musings of acclaimed Portuguese author António Lobo Antunes in "Letters From War". The B+W film is about Antunes' time serving in the Portuguese colonial army during the Angolan war of independence in the early 1970s. This was a turning point in Portuguese history with parallels to the American war in Vietnam.....but Hollywood will neither know nor care that much about Portuguese history. 

In the category of "not good enough", we have Austria and Greece. Like Portugal, AUSTRIA has selected a biopic of an acclaimed local author, in this case Jewish writer Stefan Zweig who fled his country for obvious reasons in the 1930s and eventually committed suicide in exile. Zweig is more famous than Antunes but he's not well-known in the West and though the film was a hit locally, Western audiences have mostly found the film to be well-meaning but terribly dull. 

GREECE has selected testosterone-heavy comedy "Chevalier", about a group of friends on a boat who talk.....and talk and.....well, that's about it. The friends decide to play a game to see who is "the best, generally", rating each other on how they walk, talk, play games etc....Like a lot of new Greek films, the premise has a lot of potential but doesn't do much with it. "Chevalier" is a mostly forgettable film (with the lowest user rating on IMDB) with little character development and does not look to be another dark horse like "Dogtooth".  

The UNITED KINGDOM has selected the Persian-language horror film "Under the Shadow", the feature debut of Iran-born British director Babak Anvari. This claustrophobic thriller follows a mother and her young daughter living in a Teheran apartment plagued by supernatural goings-on during the incessant Iraqi bombings of the 1980s. The film starts off slow but progresses towards a thrilling and frightening conclusion. However, Oscar has no taste for horror films and better, more mainstream films like Spain's "The Orphanage" and buzzier films like Austria's "Goodnight Mommy" (which I didn't like) have failed to make the shortlist meaning "Shadow" won't have any luck here. 

HIGHLY UNLIKELY-

12. BELGIUM- “The Ardennes”

11. ITALY- “Fire at Sea”

10. SWITZERLAND- “Ma vie de courgette”

9. ICELAND- “Sparrows

With 85 countries competing, smaller films are going to get lost in the mix. And that's what likely to happen to Belgium and Iceland. BELGIUM has selected "The Ardennes", a crime thriller focusing on a love triangle between two small-time criminal brothers and a local girl, after one brother is released from prison. Reviews have been positive but unenthusiastic and the film hasn't won any awards outside of Belgium. Ditto for ICELAND's coming-of-ager "Sparrows" follows a teenaged boy in Reykjavik forced to move in with his estranged father and grandmother in a rural village when his mom moves abroad. I've heard it gets a bit dark.... Reviews are better than "Ardennes" but not good enough for an Oscar. 

Animated films and documentaries are rarely recognized outside of their own categories, meaning it's an uphill battle for Italy and Switzerland. SWITZERLAND's French-language "Ma vie de courgette" (My Life as a Zucchini), about the life of an orphaned boy, is actually supposed to be one of the most tender and affecting youth films of the year....but clocking in at 70 minutes (the shortest film in the competition) it's still a cartoon about a boy with blue hair and it will have more luck in the less competitive Animated Film category (where it's also competing). Many Oscar prognosticators are buzzing about ITALY's documentary "Fire At Sea". Meryl Streep has been a vocal supporter of the film and it focuses on one of the most important issues facing the world today- namely, the refugee crisis overwhelming the countries of Europe and, in particular, the tiny, peaceful Italian island of Lampedusa, where boats filled with desperate migrants have been arriving for years. What's the problem? Well, it's a terrible film! If you're looking for a film about refugees, you'll have to go elsewhere as 80% of this film follows a local family as they do things like make the bed, get eye exams and explain which kind of tree makes the best slingshot. This is supposedly meant to contrast the peaceful life of locals with the lives of the refugees but it's poorly done and most people I know who have seen the film are sorely disappointed. NO CHANCE. 

 DARK HORSES-

8. NORWAY- “The King’s Choice”

7. SPAIN- “Julieta”

6. FRANCE- "Elle"

These three films will probably do well in the rankings but ultimately I fear they will fall just short of making the 9-film shortlist. Directors Pedro Almodovar and Paul Verhoeven and Best Actress contender Isabelle Huppert are probably the highest-profile figures on the entire list (though the all-star French cast of "It's Only the End of the World" might disagree) while Norway has selected the kind of big-budget World War II epic that this category has traditionally honored.

NORWAY's "The King's Choice" is a war movie with heart, focusing on the momentous decision of the King of Norway not to surrender to the Nazis and to continue fighting at great cost to the nation, unlike the other three Nordic countries (Denmark was forced to surrender, Finland agreed to a partial alliance with Germany and Sweden stayed neutral). It was a box-office hit in Norway and technically looks very polished. However, I remember when a similar Norwegian resistance film ("Max Manus") was touted as a favorite for a nom and failed even to be shortlisted. Oscar seems less interested in WWII lately (though they still enjoy the Holocaust) and I wonder if this story is a bit too "nationally focused". Will Americans understand the importance of this King and this decision to Norway's history? I haven't seen it yet. 

“Elle” from FRANCE stars Isabelle Huppert as a successful career woman who is sexually assaulted by a mystery man and who sets out an elaborate plan for revenge against him. It’s a mystery, it’s a black comedy, it’s a thriller. Verhoeven may be best known for trashy films like “Showgirls” and “Basic Instinct” and action movies like “Total Recall” and “Starship Troopers”, but he started out making arthouse dramas in his native Holland, including Oscar nominee “Turkish Delight”. He’s a crowdpleaser who can make critically acclaimed films when he wants to. “Elle” has great reviews and Isabelle Huppert is supposed to be absolutely amazing. So why do I have it in fourth place? Well, I’m not sure a darkly comic revenge tale about rape will appeal to either the stuffy mainstream committee or the arthouse elite committee. It may just miss out with each group. Still, it’s never wise to count out France and it’s definitely in with a chance.

The same goes for SPAIN, Almodovar and his latest, “Julieta”, about a woman who attempts to reconnect with her estranged daughter. Hollywood loves Almodovar a lot more than Spain does and they proved that by nominating him four times, including wins for “Talk to Her” (Best Screenplay) and “All About My Mother” (Best Foreign Language Film). That said, everyone agrees that “Julieta” is generally a good movie but not his best work. It will be an uphill climb in such a competitive year. 

STRONG CONTENDERS

5. SWEDEN- “A Man Called Ove”

4. FINLAND- “The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki”

3. NETHERLANDS- “Tonio”

I think two of these films can make the shortlist, but I keep changing my mind about which two. According to the critics, "Olli Maki" is easily the strongest and "A Man Called Ove" is easily the weakest...but sadly quality is often of secondary importance ("Labyrinth of Lies"?!). I haven't seen any of these three yet so it's hard to judge. 

Paula van der Oest of THE NETHERLANDS has shocked Oscar prognosticators twice with Oscar nominee "Zus & Zo" and almost-nominee "Lucia de B." (which very possibly came in sixth place despite being little more than a very pleasant TV movie of the week) and I think she may do it again with "Tonio", a more serious film based on a "true-story" novel of a middle-class couple dealing with the death of their 21-year old son in a biking accident. It's an emotional hook and best of all it's accessible and "universal" (unlike historical and cultural dramas that may demand some background knowledge). The Hollywood Reporter concedes that "like the mourning process it depicts, it too is sometimes messy and incoherent" but I think it will be one of the darlings of the large committee. 

"A Man Called Ove", the gentle comedy from SWEDEN, is also accessible and word has it that the Oscar committee really enjoyed its simple, paint-by-numbers story of a cranky, suicidal 60-year old widower whose life is changed when a friendly new neighbor and her family move in next door. No one believes it's one of the best films of the year, but most people find it thoroughly enjoyable and those kinds of universally "high" scores may win it a place in the Top Six from the larger group. The fact that it's about an old man (matching the age and gender of most of the Large Committee) is a bonus. 

That leaves us with FINLAND and Cannes Un Certain Regard winner "The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki", a B+W boxing drama about real-life local legend Olli Maki. Oscar loves boxing movies and underdog dramas and this is said to be a really special film. Finland doesn't often do well in this category but I think "Olli Maki" is going to be one of the films that gets saved by the Elite Committee. It's on the bubble.

EXTREMELY LIKELY

2. GERMANY- “Toni Erdmann”

1. DENMARK- “Land of Mine”

Germany and Denmark are probably the two most successful countries of the past ten years. Each has made the shortlist six times out of the last ten years.....With over 80 countries, that's pretty insane and I predict both countries make it again this year. I'm actually predicting an Oscar win for DENMARK and their "Land of Mine", about Nazi German POW soldiers forced by the victorious Danes to clear fields of land mines that the Germans used to terrorize occupied Denmark during the war. The POWs are mostly young German conscripts and the film is supposed to tug at the heartstrings with this complicated moral dilemma. Oscar loves WWII, Denmark and moral dilemmas, and the film's outstanding acting and technical credits (three European Film Awards in the tech categories) will appeal to both halves of the Academy. It's in. 

I also have confidence in "Toni Erdmann", a relationship dramedy about a woman and her complicated relationship with her father. It won the FIPRESCI Award at Cannes 2016 and was named as one of the "Best 100 Films of the 21st Century" by the BBC (the only film of 2016 on the list). It's a bit overlong but reviews have been universally positive (and the highest user rating on IMDB though that counts for very little) and I expect it will get saved if it doesn't make it through the larger committee. Consider both of these films very safe. 

Now the Statistics:

Number of countries from these regions who have participated in the past: 20 

Number of countries participating this year:  17.

Number of debuts: Zero. 

Number of countries opting out:  3- IRELAND (who probably had no non-English films to submit this year) as well as tiny GREENLAND (pop: 50,000) and MALTA (pop: 300,000), whose “Do-Re-Mi-Fa” appears to have had too much English. 

Already Seen: 4- Greece, Italy, Sweden and the UK

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely Isabelle Huppert and her sadistic tendencies in “Elle” from France! 

Feature Debuts:  FOUR. Babak Anvari (UK), Claude Barras (Switzerland), Juho Kuosmanen (Finland) and Robin Pront (Belgium)

Number of Female Directors:  FOUR. Two German ladies- Maren Ade (representing Germany) and Maria Schrader (inexplicably representing Austria) plus Athina Rachel Tsangari (Greece) and Paula van der Oest (Netherlands)

Oldest and Youngest Directors:         Veteran director Paul Verhoeven is 78……Belgium’s Robin Pront just turned 30.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:  Three films are in French (France, Luxembourg and Switzerland) and two each are in German (Austria and Germany) and Dutch (Belgium and Netherlands). The other ten are in Danish, Finnish, Greek, Icelandic, Italian, Norwegian, Persian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish.   The WWII films from Denmark and Norway also feature quite a bit of German. 

Number of Comedies: Greece’s unfunny “Chevalier” is the only real comedy, though Germany and Sweden have selected comedy-dramas 

Number of Animated Films and Documentaries:  Switzerland has selected an animated film for the first time. Italy and Luxembourg have selected documentaries.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a strong roster of films. I’d say seven- maybe eight- are in with a real chance. 

Highest profile film: The buzz has been evenly divided between France’s “Elle”, Germany’s “Toni Erdmann” and Spain’s “Julieta”.  But remember buzz doesn’t always mean love. 

Oscar History:  Our only Oscar winner is Pedro Almodovar, who won Best Original Screenplay for “Talk to Her” and Best Foreign Film for “All About My Mother” and has two more nominations for Directing (“Talk to Her”) and Foreign Film (“Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown”). This is his sixth time representing Spain. 

Paul Verhoeven represented his native Netherlands four times, getting an Oscar nomination way back in 1974 for “Turkish Delight”. He was also shortlisted for “Blackbook” in 2007.  Paula van der Oest of the Netherlands received an Oscar nomination in 2003 for “Zus & Zo” and was shortlisted for “Lucia de B.” more than a decade later. Iceland’s Runar Runarsson was nominated for Best Short Film in 2006 and repped Iceland in the Foreign Film race in 2011 for “Volcano”. 

Pol Cruchten is representing Luxembourg for the third time after feature “Little Secrets” and documentary “Never Die Young.  Erik Poppe is representing Norway for a second time after “Hawaii, Oslo” in 2004.  And Athina Rachel Tsangari represented Greece for “Attenberg”, one of the worst Foreign Oscar submissions of all time. 

Best & Worst Decisions: I think Denmark, Finland and Netherlands made particularly clever choices. Austria (which selected a film from neighboring Germany) and Italy (which chose a dull documentary over more appropriate films like “Perfect Strangers” and “Indivisible”) chose foolishly. 

Controversies and Changes:  AMPAS originally disqualified the Austrian entry for not having enough Austrian content but it was mysteriously reinstated. Oscar winner Paolo Sorrentino (“The Great Beauty”) criticized the Italian Academy for sending “Fire at Sea” over runner-up “Indivisible”, which lost by one vote. He correctly argued that they had missed the chance to promote two Italian films (since “Fire at Sea” is already lobbying for the Best Documentary category). 

Most Notable Omissions: FRANCE was forced to dump baity nun drama “The Innocents” and Francois Ozon’s B+W arthouse “Frantz”.  

Familiar Faces:  Obviously the biggest star is Isabelle Huppert, who is campaigning for a Best Actress nod for “Elle”. Serbian actor Rade Serbedzija (who directed the Macedonian film) co-stars in Iceland’s “Sparrows”. And though they aren’t famous, I’m excited to see the Flemish stars of “Borgman” (Jan Bijvoet and Jeroen Perceval) reteaming together in “The Ardennes”.

Last year's race:  Western Europe hogged six of the nine shortlist spots last year, though they ultimately only got two nominations (for Denmark and France). I managed to see twelve of the films. 

Belgium’s “The Brand New Testament” was my favorite film of 2015 (and thus my pick for the Oscar), though I also loved “Mustang” (A-). I’m afraid I wasn’t crazy about the rest: “Rams” (B+), “The Wave” (B+), “Viva” (B), “Baby (a)lone” (Luxembourg), “Goodnight Mommy” (B-), “Xenia” (B-), “Under Milk Wood” (B-), “Loreak” (C+), “Labyrinth of Lies” (C) and “A Pigeon Sat on a Branch” (D-). 

FINAL PREDICTION- An expected victory for Hungary

So, I predicted four of the five nominees this year.....

While I'm disappointed that my favorite film of 2015- "The Brand New Testament" failed to advance, I cannot be too upset that Colombia's smart arthouse adventure "Embrace of the Serpent" took its place. I'm so happy that the Colombians made it to the finals after three decades of trying. Colombia and Jordan are both real winners here. The nomination will be a huge boost to the local film industries.

I'll keep this post short as the Oscar starts in 90 minutes.

It will come as no surprise to anyone that "Son of Saul" is probably going to win this. People have been saying that for six months and it never lost its front-runner status. However, there are rumors circulating around the Internet that "Son of Saul" was actually "saved" by the elite committee after a more mixed reception from the Large Committee than anyone expected. In this case, the tragic but uplifting "Mustang" from Turkey....er.....from France (?!) is waiting in the wings. I'd personally prefer to see "Mustang" win than yet another Holocaust drama but I haven't been able to "Son of Saul" to compare the two directly.

FINAL PREDICTIONS
1. HUNGARY- Son of Saul  (60%)
2. FRANCE- Mustang (28%)
3. COLOMBIA- Embrace of the Serpent (7%)
4. DENMARK- A War (4%)
5. JORDAN- Theeb (1%)

FOREIGN FILM PREDICTIONS- FINAL FIVE

So, I predicted five of the nine shortlisted films.....The only real shock was the inclusion of "Viva", the Spanish-language LGBT film from Cuba....er....Ireland. More on that later. Most of all, I was thrilled at the inclusion of the quirky film from Belgium- "The Brand New Testament", which was my favorite film of 2015. We all know "Son of Saul" is going to win anyway (although I've seen rumors swirling that it was actually one of the three films "saved" by the Executive Committee after it allegedly failed to advance from the main group) so this is mostly academic.

Congratulations especially to Colombia, Ireland and Jordan, which are in the Oscar finals for the very first time (Colombia has been submitting films for over thirty years).

With the exception of "Viva", I really think all the shortlisted films have a chance to make the Final Five. Full disclosure: I've seen "Brand New Testament", "Embrace of the Serpent", "Labyrinth of Lies", "Mustang", "Theeb" and "Viva", but haven't managed to get my hands on "Son of Saul" or the two Nordic entries ("A War" and "The Fencer").

My final predictions are: Belgium, Denmark, France, Hungary and Jordan. 

FAIRLY SAFE:
1. HUNGARY- "Son of Saul"
2. FRANCE- "Mustang"
3. DENMARK- "A War"

There's little need to say anything about more about front-runners "Son of Saul" and "Mustang". Most people agree that Holocaust drama "Son of Saul" is going to win, and many truly believe it to be the best Foreign Film of the year (I haven't seen it, though I have seen six of its competitors here). Most people also believe that the gentler "Mustang" is the only film with a chance to defeat it. Female-centric films are almost never nominated in this category, but "Mustang" presses all the right buttons.

Though virtually nobody is talking about it, I also feel confident about "A War" from Denmark. This is a film told in two parts, about a Danish soldier in Afghanistan who stands accused of human rights violations in a confusing moment during wartime. The Afghanistan segment will strongly resonate with American voters who have seen the Afghanistan conflict inflict violence on both American and Afghan sides for the past fifteen years. The segment in Denmark combines courtroom drama and family drama, two of Oscar's favorite genres. Denmark (population: 5.7 million) has made the shortlist five of the past six years, winning one Oscar and garnering two additional nominations. "A War" will probably rack up a third.

VIRTUALLY TIE FOR FOURTH PLACE:
4. BELGIUM- "A Brand New Testament"
5. JORDAN- "Theeb"
6. FINLAND- "The Fencer"

I keep juggling these three films, trying to figure out which one is likely to miss out on a nomination. And yes, that's Catherine Deneuve in bed with a gorilla.

There's precedence for all three of these movies to be here....Belgium is hoping for a 10-year supernatural "Amelie"....Jordan wants to follow in the footsteps of "Journey of Hope".....And Finland is....well.....every Oscar nominated-film in history about a teacher inspiring students or about a prisoner on the run, or the evils of Communism.....Wow, no wonder it made the shortlist!

Let's look at the pros and cons:

BELGIUM- 
In brief: God's 10-year old daughter sets out to overthrow her cruel father by selecting six Brussels residents at random to be her new disciples,
Pros: GG nominee. The tone and visuals will remind some of 5-time Oscar nominee "Amelie". It makes you laugh and makes you cry. It's also the best film of 2015 (though Oscar won't take that into account)
Cons: It's by far the least serious of the nine films; the film gets downright weird (even before Catherine Denuve and the gorilla) and the whimsy and silliness may turn off some stodgy Oscar voters.
Bottom Line: I'm actually pretty shocked it made the shortlist but the film is so good, I think it will make the Final Five.

FINLAND- 
In brief: A champion Estonian fencer begins teaching in a small town in order to evade the Soviet secret police.
Pros: Shock GG nominee. It's exactly the sort of conservative film Oscar usually nominates....an old-fashioned period piece with children and an easy-to-follow story.
Cons: Reviews have actually been kind of 'meh', especially at home. It's won no awards anywhere.
Bottom Line: It's so close! I think the race with Jordan could come down to a few votes!

JORDAN-
In brief: A young Bedouin boy struggles to survive after sneaking into the desert to follow his brother, who has been sent by his tribe to guide a WWI British soldier.
Pros: BAFTA nominee. Child-in-peril storyline, beautifully filmed desert scenery. Exotic but still relatable and accessible. Strong run of festival showings worldwide since its 2014 Venice premiere.
Cons: Snubbed at the Globes, a strong precursor. Oscar traditionally prefers their films European.
Bottom Line: With stronger reviews than "The Fencer" and a more accessible plotline than "Serpent", I think Jordan can get an Oscar nod on their second try.

Having said that, Colombia and Germany aren't out of the running yet!

LONG SHOTS
7. COLOMBIA- "Embrace of the Serpent"
8. GERMANY- "Labyrinth of Lies"
9. IRELAND- "Viva"

I've seen all three of these films, so I feel I have some credibility here.

I'm so sorry Colombia! I so wanted to predict you'd get a nomination! "Embrace of the Serpent" is this year's intellectual choice and a probable Elite Committee save, but that didn't help "Force Majeure" or "Confessions" make it to the finals. "Embrace of the Serpent" is a lovingly created two-hour-plus B&W movie, filmed in indigenous South American languages, that asks the viewer to ponder colonialism, imperialism, religion, loneliness and two distinct stories of two solo Western explorers visiting the same warrior thirty years apart. It's well-made and complicated and challenging and not always an easy watch. It would make a deserving nominee but I'm skeptical of its chances.

As for "Viva" and "Labyrinth of Lies". Simply put, they're not good enough.

First of all, I'm shocked "Viva" is even here. It's a good movie, but it's flawed. I saw it with three friends at the Busan Film Festival. All four of us enjoyed it, though none of us were particularly impressed. I'm also shocked because gay-themed films almost never score here....the last one I can remember was "Strawberry & Chocolate" (ironically, also a "Cuban" film starring Jorge Perugorria). The acting is great and the film features one of the best drag performances I've ever seen anywhere. But the screenplay needs work, with a sudden awkward tonal shift midway. Anyway, I think "Viva" is way out of its league and the longest of long-shots. 

That's too bad because it's a better film than "Labyrinth of Lies". The issue is so important, that it must be a good film, right? Wrong. "Labyrinth of Lies" is a real, lazy choice by the Academy (and perhaps a very smart choice by Germany). The topic (Nazi-hunting to cleanse the soul of the German nation) is certainly an important one, but the film is so cliched and formulaic that in terms of writing and directing, it's really just a well-made TV movie. Of course, the Academy voted for the similarly themed "Sophie Scholl" and the lackluster "Baader Meinhof Komplex", so I'm worried it may still make it in. 

FINAL PREDICTIONS

With the unfortunate disqualification of AFGHANISTAN, there are 80 films contending for nine finalists slots. The six films that have the highest average scores from the "large committee" will automatically made the Final Nine. Then three more films will be selected from the "elite committee", which typically chooses more challenging, cerebral fare.

I expect the list will be announced on Friday, December 18, although it could be announced a day before or after.

In the past few weeks, we've seen some precursors announced:

Golden Globes: Belgium, Chile, Finland, France and Hungary
National Board of Review: Hungary, with runners-up Austria and Brazil and a special award for France
Critics Choice: Austria, Brazil, France, Hungary and Taiwan

Buzz for some countries has heated up (Chile, Finland, Iceland, South Africa) and for others cooled down (Guatemala, Portugal, Sweden, Taiwan). And of course, everyone is expecting "Son of Saul" to just walk away with this....

I've managed to see just 19 of the 80 films, but I have plans to see one more this weekend (Thailand) and three more before Christmas....But I wanted to publish this since the list may be announced as early as tomorrow. 

PREDICTED SHORTLIST:
1. HUNGARY- "Son of Saul"
2. FRANCE- "Mustang"
3. DENMARK- "A War"
4. ICELAND- "Rams"
5. CHILE- "El club" (Elite Committee Save)
6. ARGENTINA- "El clan"
7. BELGIUM- "The Brand New Testament"
8. ISRAEL- "Baba Joon"
9. JORDAN- "Theeb"

ALTERNATES
10. BULGARIA- "The Judgement"
11. GERMANY- "Labyrinth of Lies" (Large Committee Only)
12. FINLAND- "The Fencer" (Large Committee Only)
13. TAIWAN- "The Assassin" (Elite Committee Only; Dear Elite Committee....This movie makes no sense....Please don't choose it for the Production Design alone)
14. BRAZIL- "The Second Mother" (Large Committee Only)
15. MEXICO- "600 Miles" (Large Committee Only)
16. ETHIOPIA- "Lamb"

DARK HORSES
17. COLOMBIA- "Embrace of the Serpent"  (Elite Committee Only)
18. AUSTRIA- "Goodnight Mommy" (Elite Committee Only)
19. NETHERLANDS- "Paradise Suite"
20. INDIA- "Court"
21. ROMANIA- "Aferim!" (Elite Committee Only)

RUNNER-UPS
22. KAZAKHSTAN- "The Stranger"
23. NORWAY- "The Wave"

24. CZECH REPUBLIC- "Home Care"
25. GUATEMALA- "Ixcanul"
26. SERBIA- "Enclave"
27. SOUTH AFRICA- "Two of Us"
28. SINGAPORE- "7 Letters"
29. SWEDEN- "A Pigeon Sat on a Branch..."
30. JAPAN- "100-Yen Love"
31. CHINA- "Go Away, Mr. Tumor"
32. ALBANIA- "Bota"

LEAST LIKELY
79. BANGLADESH- "Jalal's Story"
80. HONG KONG- "To the Fore"

Good luck to all the best films!

FOREIGN OSCAR 2016- The 20 Candidates from Western Europe, Canada and Israel

Here are the 20 films from the "Western" countries, including Canada and Israel. Today is December 14th and the last of the 81 nominees (Latvia and Thailand) will be screening today in Los Angeles. The 9-film shortlist should come out this Friday or next Monday. 

Though the Western European countries have traditionally dominated this category, last year was the first year in Oscar history that the region failed to get a single nomination. The closest were the mediocre dramas from the Netherlands and Sweden, which did manage to advance to the shortlist.

NO CHANCE:

20. UNITED KINGDOM- "Under Milk Wood"
19. LUXEMBOURG- "Baby (a)lone"
18. GREECE- "Xenia"
17. SWITZERLAND- "Iraqi Odyssey"
16. CANADA- "Felix et Meira"

In a super-competitive year, these five films will have a hard time breaking through.

"Xenia" from GREECE looks like a Gregg Araki movie, with bright colors highlighting a sad story, surreal giant rabbits and a decidely "queer" POV. Araki is my favorite international director but movies like "Xenia" will be a hard-sell at the Oscars. In "Xenia" two orphaned brothers (roughly 16 and 19) search for their long-lost Greek father after the death of their Albanian mother. Reviewers say the movie is original and visually interesting but flawed and overlong.

Also a "hard sell" in any category are three-hour documentaries meaning that "Iraqi Odyssey" from SWITZERLAND is out of luck. Director Samir is Swiss but his family comes from Iraq and this film follows his attempt to research and follow the diaspora of his family who starting emigrating from Iraq in the 1920, and who now live on virtually every continent. Despite very good reviews, I can't see this very personal story advancing.

The same goes for CANADA's "Felix et Meira", the unlikely love story between a young Hasidic Jewish woman living a virtually cloistered life with her ultra-religious husband and their new baby, and a depressed French-Canadian man getting over the death of his father. Although Quebec is often a superpower in this category and although AMPAS often likes Jewish interest films, the film is dull and uninteresting and despite some very good reviews, reception has been decidedly mixed. I was extremely bored throughout, and never found the story very realistic. 

"Under Milk Wood" stars actor Rhys Ifans and singer Charlotte Church and is the first Welsh film to represent the UNITED KINGDOM since 2011. It was filmed simultaneously in a Welsh version that got a limited release in Wales in December 2014, and an English version that premiered in England in October 2015. It's a dark and poetic story about the residents of a village in rural Wales. Reviews (most of which apply to the English version) have mostly been underwhelming, praising the film's dark humor and visuals, but criticizing the langourous pace and some bawdy, childish humor. 

That leaves us with the obscure entry from LUXEMBOURG- "Baby (a)lone", about a pair of sociopathic teenagers who go on the run when the girl ends up pregnant. Described as dark and grim, the film looks quirky and interesting, like a prequel to "Natural Born Killers". But with zero buzz, zero awards and a lack of critical acclaim, it's a non-starter.

HIGHLY UNLIKELY:
15. IRELAND- "Viva"
14. SPAIN- "Loreak"
13. ITALY- "Don't Be Bad"

These three are perfectly good films but nobody believes that they are good enough to make the final five. Let's take the Spanish-language film....No, it's not the one from Spain....It's the LGBT drama set in Cuba and representing the Republic of IRELAND- "Viva". I saw the film at BIFF and its an entertaining drama about a gay teen living on his own, when he is confronted by the unexpected return of his ex-con father, who has been in jail since he was a baby. The boy's struggle is compelling and the film features one of the best drag performances ever put to film (by straight actor Hector Medina, no less) but the father's arc is less well-done, and the film has an uncomfortable shift in tone midway through the film. The film from SPAIN- "Loreak" (Flowers) is the first film ever submitted to the Oscars in Basque (notable for being one of the only languages in the world with no known connection to any other language). I managed to see it on DVD and its a very subtle, well-made film about the lives of three women connected by an anonymously given bouquet of flowers. It's a very sweet, little film with a lot to say about contemporary relationships but it's so subtle, some people might find it just a teeny tiny eensy bit dull....


Finally, there's ITALY which chose "Don't Be Bad", a grim, drug-fueled crime drama about two low-life petty criminals and best friends trying to live the high life in early 1990s Rome. Director Claudio Caligari died shortly after filming wrapped and the film was likely chosen over "Mia madre" and "Leopardi" as a posthumous honor. Though it performed well at Venice, nobody is talking about it, it has barely been seen anywhere else, it features unlikable characters, and it is by far the most low-key Italian submission in years. It's also said to be quite a downer. 

Advancing to the next round would be a tall order for any of these three films. 

HOPING FOR AN ELITE COMMITTEE SAVE
12. PORTUGAL- "Arabian Nights: Vol. 2: The Desolate One"
10. SWEDEN- "A Pigeon Sat on a Branch..."
8. AUSTRIA- "Goodnight, Mommy" 

Lots of people are talking about these three weird films making the 9-film shortlist. There is absolutely no chance the large committee will be susceptible to the charms of these oddballs pics for a number of reason, so they are all clinging to the possibility of being one of the three "elite saves". I think none of them will make it and here's why: 

Pity PORTUGAL, the unluckiest country in the Oscar race and the only major country in Europe that has never even made the shortlist stage. This year, Portugal had a dilemma. The most acclaimed film of the year was clearly Miguel Gomes' "Arabian Nights", but the six-hour plus magnum opus was released as three separate films, loosely based on the Arabian folktales, but set in Portugal amidst the recent financial crisis. Most critics agreed that "Volume 2" was the best, but they also agreed that it was not necessary to see Volume 1 first, it was advisable to do so. So, even if AMPAS did like this intellectual, anti-capitalist fairy tale, it will probably lose a bit without seeing the first one. That will be enough to knock them out of the running. 


I saw "Goodnight Mommy" from AUSTRIA fairly randomly at a horror/fantasy film festival here in Korea, not knowing that it would become one of the buzziest films of the year. "Mommy" focuses on two identical twins whose mother comes from the hospital, all bandaged up from some sort of accident (or is it plastic surgery?) The two boys believe that the mysterious, moody woman is not their mother, but an imposter....leading to all sorts of strange situations. Many believe this will be the WTF film on the shortlist this year, noting that "Dogtooth" indeed was saved in 2010/2011 and I cannot explain it. "Dogtooth" was daringly original, but also a terrible film. "Goodnight Mommy" is not a terrible film but it's not a great one either. I figured out the "twist" fairly early on, as it is one that has been employed in several films before (telling you which one would give it away). The beginning is fairly dull. The end is nauseatingly and unforgettably violent. Other than "Dogtooth", I don't see anything in AMPAS history that would make me believe that "Mommy" has a chance....



The same goes for SWEDEN, which chose Roy Andersson's "A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence", the conclusion to what one reviewer called "the lowest-grossing trilogy of all time". Indeed, "Songs from the Second Floor" and "You the Living" (both terrible films) represented Sweden in 2000 and 2007 and the Academy sensibly ignored both of them. "Pigeon" is said to be more accessible than the other two (it couldn't possibly be less) but it still relies on a series of supposedly "comic", mostly silent and unrelated vignettes. Andersson recently said "Sweden was not that important" when accepting a European Film Award over the weekend, saying that Sweden doesn't seem to get his humor. I haven't seen "Pigeon", but I doubt America will either. It's true that there was no elite committee in 2000 or 2007 to save Andersson....but I think there will be no elite committee in 2015 that will save him either. 

HOPING FOR A LARGE COMMITTEE MIRACLE
11. NETHERLANDS- "Paradise Suite" 
9. NORWAY- "The Wave"
7. FINLAND- "The Fencer"


I haven't seen "The Fencer"- the shock Golden Globe nominee from FINLAND- although like the Irish film it would have been disqualified before 2006. The film is set in neighboring Estonia, with an Estonian cast speaking Estonian and has nothing whatsoever to do with Finland. Set during Soviet times, it's the story of a champion Soviet fencer who shows up in an Estonian town ostensibly to teach fencing, when he is actually fleeing the secret police. During his lessons, he has a profound effect on his impressionable Estonian students. It's a baity plot with plenty of potential for dramatic tension and Oscar loves movies about teachers. I was shocked by the Golden Globe nod (over "Wolf Totem", "El clan", "Dheepan" and others) because reviews have been positive but decidedly unenthusiastic, the film hasn't won any other awards anywhere and director Klaus Härö has had better reviewed films ("Mother of Mine") that haven't managed to make it to the next round. The larger committee could bite, as they often do with "solid but not great" films. It's in with a chance. 

Less likely is crowdpleaser "The Wave" from NORWAY, a high-octane disaster movie about a mountain avalanche that launches a huge tidal wave (is that the right word?) that terrorizes a small fjord community. It's said to be exciting....a word which very rarely describes foreign film nominees....but it's also a genre film filled with poorly developed characters. And while the CGI special effects are great by European standards, they may not impress those in Hollywood. Still, it's one of the films I'm excited to see......

Which brings us to the NETHERLANDS and "Paradise Suite". This is a multi-lingual and extremely timely tale of migrants, whose lives intersect in the Netherlands, including a Bulgarian woman forced into prostitution, three men from Bosnia, Serbia and Burkina Faso and a pair of Swedish expats. I haven't seen it but it looks slightly preachy and- once again- reviews are positive but unethusiastic...Hmm....Sounds like last year's short-listed "Accused", also from Holland, so maybe it has a chance after all!

DARK HORSES:
6. ISRAEL- "Baba Joon" 
5. GERMANY- "Labyrinth of Lies"

Now we get to the real contenders....The Foreign Film Committee has always shown a strong interest in Jewish interest films, whether you're talking "Solomon & Gaenor", "The Counterfeiters" or the shortlisted "The Day My Parents Went on Vacation", and that may help these two very different films from Germany and Israel to progress. 

GERMANY has gone with a rather typical Oscar nominee, a lazy strategy that has helped them get to the next round with dull fact-based dramas like "Baader Meinhof Komplex" and "Sophie Scholl". "Labyrinth of Lies" is a post-WWII drama about a little-known time in German history (the 1960s) when the German state was covering up the Nazi histories of low-level and mid-level officials, in an effort to return to a state of normalcy. A courageous judicial crusader sets out to convict those who have gotten away with their crimes, but finds many in the bureaucracy would rather forget these atrocities happened. Its all very moving but the problem is that the film has actually gotten quite average reviews. It didn't win a single award at the German Lolas (though it was got five nominations, including Best Picture and Screenplay) and nobody seems excited by it. Anyway, it already secured a US release and it's a subject that AMPAS clearly likes hearing about and it may be the sort of "solid" film that makes it through on 8s and 9s with few high or low scores. 


ISRAEL's film- "Baba Joon"- on the other hand has barely made a blip on the international film radar, but it's a warm family drama that seems to be charming those few critics who do see it. Oscar sometimes goes for family dramas, often goes for Israeli cinema, and this film combines some of the best aspects of both. "Baba Joon" is about the lives of a large family of Iranian Jews living in Israel, who still speak Farsi and continue their Persian traditions. The central family conflict involves a hard-working father angry that his teenage son shows no interest in continuing the family business (a poultry farm) and an uncle visiting from America who encourages the son to take charge of his own destiny. These are all topics that will be easily accessible to an American movie audience, with just the right touch of exoticism. It's a potential dark horse. 

REAL THREATS- 
4. BELGIUM- "The Brand New Testament"
3. ICELAND- "Rams"
2. DENMARK- "A War"

The best film I've seen this year was BELGIUM's whimsical, beautiful, hilarious, sad, poignant, quirky "The Brand New Testament", an "Amelie"-style fantasy-comedy about a crass, blue-collar God living with his shy wife and headstrong 10-year old daughter in Brussels. Sick of her father destroying people's lives for his own amusement, his daughter sets out into the human world to follow in her brother's footsteps and find six new apostles (including a hired assassin, a wealthy socialite played by Catherine Deneuve and a dying transgender boy) to write the Brand New Testament. I'm so happy that "Testament" got a Golden Globe nomination because this is a beautiful film that needs to be seen. It might be too whimsical for Oscar, but it's a definite contender. 

I admit though that two Nordic films (both ignored by the Globes) have a slightly better chance. "Rams" from ICELAND is sure to appeal to the Committee's many, many older voters. It's about two elderly brothers who have lived next door to each other for decades in rural Iceland, raising sheep, but who have not spoken to each other in forty years. When a fatal contagious disease strikes, the Icelandic government forces the region's farmers to kill all of their beloved sheep, presenting the brothers with a dilemma. While I preferred "Testament", "Rams" is much more of a traditional Oscar film, with a lot of humor and pathos and a very memorable ending. Once again, I really think older voters will rank this film very highly. 

Last but not last, we have DENMARK's "A War"- about Danish soldiers in Afghanistan, and their families on the homefront. More specifically, it's about an incident in Afghanistan that leads to charges of war crimes back home in the liberal Scandinavian kingdom.  With the involvement of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan nearing its 15th year, this is most certainly a topic that American audiences can relate to. Divided into two halves, I have a feeling this film will resonate and has a good chance at the Final Nine....certainly better than the other four Nordic countries. 

NEARLY A LOCK
1. FRANCE- "Mustang"

Turkey's.....er.....FRANCE's "Mustang" has romped through the precursors, getting nominations at the Golden Globes and the European Film Awards, and winning a special award at the NBR. It's been warmly reviewed just about everywhere (with the notable exception of Turkey) and is said to be exactly the sort of culturally interesting yet accessible, "social drama" that the Oscars loves. I haven't seen the film (it was sold out in Busan) but it's about a relatively happy group of Turkish sisters who are forced into seclusion (and possibly into marriage) after their community gossips about them hanging out with the local boys. For good or for bad, everyone says it's just the sort of story of Islam that the West wants to see. For those of you who are confused like me about why this is representing France, apparently the Turkish-born director is a dual citizen who spent much of her life in France and made the film with French money. I think it's in. 

Now the Statistics:

Number of countries from these regions who have participated in the past: 22

Number of countries participating this year:  20.

Number of debuts: Zero

Number of countries opting out:  Two, but GREENLAND (population: 55,000) and MALTA (population: 400,000) probably didn’t have anything eligible.

Number of countries I predicted correctly:  Only 5- Belgium, Canada, Greece, Norway and Sweden. I also predicted “Mustang” to represent Turkey rather than France and “Arabian Nights: Volume I” to represent Portugal (they selected Volume II). And I changed Ireland at the last minute when it looked as if “Viva” would be released next year. Austria and Italy were quite a shock.

Already Seen: 7- Austria, Belgium, Canada, Greece, Iceland, Ireland and Spain, though I reluctantly plan to see the Swedish film before the end of the year. 

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Norwegian disaster drama "The Wave", which looks exciting.

Feature Debuts: 4- Severin Fiala and Veronika Franz (Austria), Deniz Gamze Ergüven (France), Giulio Ricciarelli (Germany) and Yuval Delshad (Israel).

Number of Female Directors: Only 2!!! Turkish-born Deniz Gamze Ergüven, who is representing FRANCE and Austrian co-director Veronika Franz. Shocking!

Oldest and Youngest Directors:  72-year old Roy Andersson (Sweden) and “Goodnight Mommy” co-director Severin Fiala (Austria), who is 30. 

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: How globalization has changed this category! It’s a great year for minority languages, immigrant languages and making films outside national borders. Who would have thought that we’d see movies in Arabic (Switzerland), Basque (Spain), Estonian (Finland), Persian (Israel), Spanish (Ireland), Turkish (France) and Welsh (UK), not to mention the Dutch film, which purports to be in seven different immigrant languages! All in one year! Plus the Canadian film is partly in Hebrew and the Greek film is partly in Albanian.

Of course a few countries have chosen their “natural” language: 2 are in French (Belgium and Canada), 2 in German (Austria and Germany) plus one each in Danish, Greek, Icelandic, Italian, Letzeburgesch, Norwegian, Portuguese and Swedish.

Number of Comedies:  Two real comedies (Belgium and Sweden) plus "Rams", the Icelandic dramedy. 

Number of Animated Films and Documentaries:  One documentary from Switzerland

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: I'd say seven or eight. 

Highest profile film: Definitely “Mustang” from France, though Austrian horror film “Goodnight Mommy” has gotten a surprisingly amount of attention and buzz.

Oscar History:  Roy Andersson (Sweden) is in the race for the fourth time, having previously had “A Swedish Love Story” (way back in 1970), as well as “Songs from the Second Floor” and “You the Living”. Klaus Härö of Finland is also competing for the fourth time, after “Elina”, “Mother of Mine” and “Letters to Father Jacob”, all since 2003. Jaco Van Dormael (Belgium) was in the race twice before (1991 and 1996) for “Toto the Hero” and “The Eighth Day” which were both considered strong contenders for nominations. Also up for a second time: Miguel Gomes (Portugal) who directed the excruciatingly bad “Our Beloved Month of August” in 2008.

Ten countries have already won the Foreign Film Oscar, while seven more have been nominated. Only three have failed to make it to the next round- perennial bridesmaid PORTUGAL (which has the longest losing streak in the world) plus IRELAND and LUXEMBOURG who do not submit regularly.

Best & Worst Decisions:  BELGIUM chose my favorite film of the year, which I think was a good decision, as were the choices from Iceland and Israel. I think FRANCE should have chosen a more authentically French film, but they'll probably be nominated so it's really up to them. Canada, the Netherlands and Switzerland probably made the wrong choices.

The jury is still out on AUSTRIA, whose made the controversial choice to send a violent, horror film. I think this was a bad move, although the Internet is pushing for a save, so maybe this was their best choice.

Controversies and Changes:  Of course there was some controversy over France choosing a decidedly "un-French" film and Austria choosing such a disturbingly violent film....But there were no real controversies. 

Germany seemed to want to send "Victoria", although there was some concern about its eligibility since its about a Spanish woman in Germany who speaks broken English. Germany calculated roughly 53% of the dialogue was in German and Spanish (but what language is Spanglish?!) and wondered aloud if that was enough. 

Omissions: The Western Europeans have plenty to choose from, so of course there were lots of snubs, the most serious of which was Bille August’s family tearjerker “Silent Heart” (Denmark), which was considered an early Oscar contender. Denmark probably had the best film year of any country on the list, making their decision to select only one film particularly difficult. Even though “Dheepan” won the Palme d’Or, it was considered by many to be a long-shot for France because it was filmed in Tamil….that is, before it lost to a film in Turkish!  Nanni Moretti’s “Mia madre” (Italy) was also a shock absentee from the list, losing in what was probably a sentimental decision to posthumous gangster drama “Don’t Be Bad”.  And in another run of bad luck for the black comedies I love, the Netherlands opted for a special Oscar-qualifying release for “Paradise Suite” instead of selecting “The Surprise” (by the director of Oscar-winning “Karakter”) or “Schneider vs. Bax”, denting their chances for an international release.

Also failing to get past Round One: “Amour Fou” (Austria), Oscar winner Susanne Bier’s “A Second Chance” (Denmark), “Marguerite” (France), Oscar nominee Oliver Hirschbiegel’s “13 Minutes” (Germany), “Virgin Mountain” (Iceland), “Magical Girl” (Spain) and Oscar nominee Stephen Daldry’s “Trash” (UK).

Familiar Faces:  Of course, the most familiar face is Catherine Deneuve who co-stars in the Belgian submission as an apostle of God's daughter who falls in love with a gorilla at the zoo. Yes, really! Runner-ups are Welsh actor Rhys Ifans ("The Amazing Spiderman", "Notting Hill") and singer/talk-show host Charlotte Church who co-star in the drama from Wales. 

Also familiar: Yolande Moreau (Belgium), Pilou Asbaek ("Lucy", Denmark) and Jorge Perugorria ("Strawberry and Chocolate", Ireland)

Last year's race:  Last year, I saw 10 of the 21 films submitted. Though I have often expressed my disdain for the Dardenne Brothers, my favorite film last year was “Two Days, One Night” from Belgium (A), which failed to be nominated, though Marion Cotillard did get nominated for Best Actress. I also saw “Human Capital” (A), “Gett” (A-), “Mommy” (A-), “The Dark Valley” (B+/B), “Accused” (B), “The Circle” (B), “Living Is Easy with Eyes Closed” (B-), “Force Majeure (C) and “1001 Grams” (C-). Next on my viewing list: "Simshar" on VOD.