2019 Oscar Submissions- WESTERN EUROPE (18 films)

Here are the 18 films from Western Europe.  

Mirroring the globalization of Western Europe, it’s striking how many of these films  are actually made in other countries. Five of them were filmed entirely outside Western Europe in Georgia, Guatemala, Israel, Malawi and Palestine, while the main characters in the films from Austria and France (as well as their directors) are the descendants of immigrants from Africa and the Middle East.

This is a strong group, with more than half the films realistically competing for spots on the 10-film shortlist. 

IN POLE POSITION:

1.     SPAIN- “Pain and Glory” (Dolor y Gloria)

2.     FRANCE- “Les Miserables”
3.     DENMARK- “Queen of Hearts”

These three films are likely to be on the ten-film shortlist, scheduled to be announced on December 16^th. “Pain and Glory” from SPAIN is traditional Oscar bait- it’s by an auteur director who has already won two Oscars, has big stars known to an American audience and is competitive in mainstream categories (Actor, Screenplay). It also focuses on a lot of universal issues that will resonate with any voter over 40- getting old, aging parents, nostalgia for lost youth....I think this will guarantee one of the top spots with the large committee, which has a lot of older voters. It would also probably be “saved” if it needed to be. I thought it was a very well-made film with great acting (especially Asier Etxeandia, who nobody ever seems to mention) although it wouldn’t make my Top Five.

          I wasn't sure about the appeal of urban drama and Cannes Jury Prize winner "Les Miserables" from FRANCE but the film has cruised through most of the precursors, netting nominations at the European Film Awards (against Germany, Italy and Spain), the BFCA (against Senegal, Spain and Korea) and, today, the Golden Globes (against Spain and Korea). Not to be confused with the story of Jean Valjean and Cosette, it's a crime drama about life in the poor, mostly black and Arab Parisian suburbs.  I'll finally see it on Saturday afternoon but it seems almost like a lock at this point. 

DENMARK has been nominated five of the past ten years (and shortlisted seven times)- the best record of any country in the world. This is for two main reasons- (1)- Denmark makes wonderful films and (2)- the Danish Academy understands what AMPAS likes. "Queen of Hearts" is on the bubble this year, but I have a feeling they'll make it. This is one of two female-driven erotic dramas (also see NETHERLANDS) this year. "Queen of Hearts" follows Anne, a successful wife and career woman with a beautiful home, two lovely daughters and a passion for helping underprivileged women and girls through her legal practice. She is also having a bit of a midlife crisis and seduces her delinquent 17-year old stepson. Most reviews paint Anne as the villain, although I don't see her that way. This is a complicated family drama that is likely to fall somewhere between the 9-12 range....

STRONG CONTENDERS:

4.     NORWAY- “Out Stealing Horses”

5.     GERMANY- “System Crasher”

6.     SWEDEN- “And Then We Danced”

At least one of these films could make the Top Ten. Let's look at the  Pros and Cons: 

GERMANY-
In A Few Words: A violent, out-of-control 9-year old girl is bounced from foster home to foster home. 
Pros: Well-made and well-plotted, with a fantastic lead performance and a great supporting cast. The film effectively dramatizes the moral dilemma and "no-win" situation for the German foster care system and even for the violent little girl. 
Cons: It's difficult to sympathize with a violent, mentally disturbed lead character with criminal tendencies, destined to destroy every home she enters. 
Bottom Line: It hasn't done well in the precursors, but it's definitely good enough to be on the bubble. 

NORWAY- 
In A Few Words: An elderly Swedish man returns to his old home in Norway where issues from his past resurface.
Pros: This is exactly the sort of film the Oscar committee would love in the 1980s and 1990s. Aimed at older voters, strong traditional filmmaking and storytelling.
Cons: It's not the 1980s anymore. Reviews are positive but not at all enthusiastic. 
Bottom Line: It has a good chance with the large committee and none at all with the Elite one. 

SWEDEN- 
In A Few Words: An elite Georgian traditional dancer discovers his sexuality when he falls for another male dancer at the national dance school. It's representing Sweden because the openly gay director was born and raised in Sweden to Georgian immigrant parents. 
Pros: It's an amazing film with an amazing backstory! It's a very thoughtful take on the usual "coming out" story with beautiful music, incredible dancing and surprisingly good acting from the unknown cast. It's exotic but relatable. The film's LGBT subject matter caused protests at its premiere in Georgia, and an Oscar nomination could show Georgia the value of the film. 
Cons: This sort of slow-burn Eastern Euro drama and queer story is not what Oscar usually honors in this category. 
Bottom Line: I think this is going to be a surprise snub, but I would love for Oscar to prove me wrong.

DARK HORSES

7.     ICELAND- “A White White Day”

8.     ITALY- “The Traitor”

9.     UNITED KINGDOM- “The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind”

So, I've only seen the UK entry- "The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind"- which is the feature directorial debut of British actor Chiwetel Ejiofor. Based on a true story, it's about an impoverished family in Malawi whose talented son develops new wind technology to help the village grow crops during the dry season. It's an accomplished film, it pulls at the heartstrings (especially the scene when the mother and daughter face the bandits) and is technically very well-made....and yet it somehow fades from the memory rather quickly. I'm not sure why, but I see other reviewers allude to the same thing. 


ITALY has chosen yet another big splashy (overlong?) production about yet another Mafia family. "The Traitor" has gotten good but not great reviews. It did very well at the European Film Awards but I think AMPAS will have different tastes. While Americans like gangland dramas, they haven't nominated one in this category for years and I think this is likely to be forgotten. "Irishman" should check that box. I'll see it on Saturday. 



ICELAND has the best reviews of these three. "A White White Day" is about a police officer who becomes obsessed with learning whether his late wife was having an affair with a local man. I haven't seen it yet, but reviews make this sound like one of the best on the list....but nobody is talking about it! With only ten slots available, I fear a small drama like this is likely to get lost in the shuffle. 

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

10.  LUXEMBOURG- “Tel Aviv on Fire”

11.  NETHERLANDS- “Instinct”

12.  BELGIUM- “Our Mothers”

            The three Benelux countries fall squarely in the middle group. Let's start with the one native entry- "Instinct" from the NETHERLANDS. This is an interesting, original erotic thriller.....Think of "Elle", but made by a woman. It's about the psychological mind games played by a steely female prison psychiatrist (Carice van Houten) and a violent sex offender (Marwan Kenzari), with a record of romancing his victims prior to assaulting them. This is a strange film and despite the strong female lead and feminist director, I can see a lot of women being offended by it. It's extremely well-acted (I wish I spoke Dutch so I could avoid the subtitles and just look at the eyes of the two amazing lead actors) but the way the subject matter is handled is likely to turn off a lot of American viewers, and Carice's family subplot seems to hang awkwardly in the background for no reason. 

Next is the film from Israel, I mean Palestine .....er..... LUXEMBOURG, "Tel Aviv on Fire". Expected to represent Israel, this dark screwball comedy was unexpectedly accepted to represent the Grand Duchy when it lost at the Ophirs. The film is not really "Luxembourgian" but the funding, filming and many of the supporting crew came from the country and I've always felt AMPAS should usually defer to the country itself regarding what constitutes a national production, so I'm glad it's here. It's about a Palestinian gofer who ends up being hired as a writer on a Palestinian soap opera popular with both Israelis and Palestinians, and the efforts of a dim-witted Israeli officer to blackmail the writer into changing the plot of the show to suit his wife's tastes. Many people are predicting this as a frontrunner, but this category doesn't often go for comedies like this (there are exceptions...."The Square" and "Days of Darkness"). And although the film has some very serious things to say about the Middle East conflict, I think it will ultimately be considered too light for a spot on the shortlist. I thought the film was very entertaining, though not Oscar-worthy....as for the American friend I saw it with, she didn't care for it at all.

          Which brings us to GUATEMALA BELGIUM and their surprise Spanish-language entry "Our Mothers". The film focuses on the elderly, largely indigenous family members (mostly mothers) witnessing the 2018 trial of government soldiers who committed atrocities against their families during the Guatemalan civil war of the 1980s. Director Cesar Diaz, who emigrated to Belgium as an 18-year old student, made the film in Guatemala and despite winning a Cannes Camera d'Or it's probably the most obscure entry (aside from the Greek doc) on the Western European list. I haven't been able to see it myself, but neither Variety ("heartfelt but slight...[and] formulaic") nor the Hollywood Reporter ("uninvolving") were big fans. 

HIGHLY UNLIKELY CHOICES:

13.  PORTUGAL- “A Herdade”

14.  AUSTRIA- “Joy”

15.  IRELAND- “Gaza”

Yes, I know that “Joy”, the gritty drama about Nigerian prostitutes living in AUSTRIA, was disqualified. The film was clearly a majority English-language production and Austria knew this. But even if it had been eligible, I think it would have come in towards the bottom of the list. “Joy” is certainly well-acted and probably very realistic, but it’s not a pleasant film to watch and the lead character’s motivations and bad choices are often unexplained.

PORTUGAL, which has never advanced past the first round, has selected three-hour soap opera “The Domain” (A Herdade), about a wealthy family’s ups and downs before and after the Portuguese revolution in the 1970s. Covering four decades and looking like an episode of “Dallas”, this sort of melodrama isn’t likely to interest American audiences. I’ll see it on December 15^th (the day before the shortlist is announced) with two cups of coffee in hand.

IRELAND has selected a very interesting documentary- “Gaza”- taking an intimate look at the lives of ordinary Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip which has been blockaded by Egyptian and Israeli authorities for years.  The personal stories are fascinating. For those who have criticized the film for being anti-Israeli, I would say that the purpose of the film is to show how the people of Gaza are living, and letting them tell their stories and express what they think and how they feel. While it’s true that the people in “Gaza” are largely anti-Israel, you also see how the senseless violence of the young men and the enormous families that they cannot support contribute to the territory’s problems. I felt the film was mostly fair. But there are other documentaries (Macedonia and Iran) that have a better chance of making the shortlist.

NO CHANCE AT ALL

16.  FINLAND- “Stupid Young Heart”

17.  SWITZERLAND- “Wolkenbruch”
18.  GREECE- “When Tomatoes Met Wagner”

This year, I don’t think there were any “bad” films submitted from Western Europe….but these three films simply don’t have any chance of making the final list.

For the third year in a row, FINLAND made a somewhat surprising and edgy choice, selecting a topical but little-heralded adolescent drama called “Stupid Young Heart”. This is a very realistic film about two irresponsible teens who end up with an unplanned pregnancy. In the background we see how Finland's fringe far-right groups are growing in response to opposition to small (mostly Somali) immigrant communities. It's reviews are all over the map. Some love it, some hate it, though most (like me) think it's average (there are some great moments but it fades when it tries to get sentimental at the very end).  It currently has the lowest IMDB score of any of the Western European films. 

GREECE has selected “When Tomatoes Met Wagner”, a pleasant 72-minute documentary about the effects of globalization on a rural village. With a cast of sweet old ladies trying hard to keep their village alive by exporting their sauces and spreads to foreign markets, it’s interesting but is likely to be quickly forgotten.

I absolutely love when countries choose comedies to represent them, so it was a pleasure to watch SWITZERLAND’s culture-clash rom-com “Wolkenbruch”, about a young man from Switzerland’s insular Orthodox Jewish community who falls for a free-spirited young Christian girl who likes to drink and go clubbing. Based on a beloved novel and filled with very broad Jewish humor, it’s an enjoyable film (hence it’s pick-up by Netflix) but not serious or well-made enough to compete at this level.

Now the statistics:

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 20

Number of countries participating this year:  18

Number of debuts: Zero.

Number of countries opting out:  Only the two minnows- MALTA (population: 500,000) and GREENLAND (population: 60,000), which haven’t submitted since 2014 and 2012 respectively. I assumed Greenland would return with “Anori”, but the director said she doesn’t believe the selection committee is still functional.

Number I predicted correctly: 7- Denmark, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. It was difficult this year because so many Western Euro countries picked films I didn’t think were eligible (Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands).

Already Seen: 12- Austria (B), Denmark (B+), Finland (B), Germany (B+), Greece (B-), Ireland (B+), Luxembourg (B+), Netherlands (A-), Spain (A-), Sweden (A), Switzerland (B-) and the UK (B+).  I have tickets to see three of the others (France, Italy, and Portugal) this weekend. 

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Iceland’s “A White White Day”

Number of Female Directors:  6 (Over 30%) Marianna Economou (Greece), Norah Flingscheidt (Germany), Sudabeh Mortezai (Austria), Halina Reijn (Netherlands), May el-Toukhy (Denmark) and Selma Vilhunen (Finland)

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 80-year old Marco Bellocchio and 70-year old Pedro Almodovar are the two oldest directors in this year’s entire competition. The youngest from Western Europe is 35-year old Hlynur Palmason from Iceland.

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:  So many countries are choosing films in languages other than their own! We have two each in Spanish (Belgium and Spain), German (Germany and Switzerland), Arabic (Ireland and Luxembourg) plus one each in Chichewa, Danish, Dutch, English (the disqualified entry from Austria), Finnish, French, Georgian, Greek, Icelandic, Italian, Norwegian and Portuguese. In this globalized world, we also have liberal doses of Hebrew (Luxembourg), Somali (Finland) and Yiddish (Switzerland) plus a whole lot of English as a second language.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: It’s a strong group….Maybe ten?

Buzziest film:  Almodovar’s “Pain and Glory”

Oscar History: Of course, Almodovar is the champion here. He’s been in the Foreign Film Oscar race seven times for Spain, winning for “All About My Mother”, and nominated for “Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown”. He also won the Oscar for Best Screenplay for “Talk to Her”, and was nominated for Best Director. The only other director who has been submitted before is Italy’s Marco Bellocchio who competed twice in 1967 (!) with “China is Near” and 1980 with “A Leap in the Dark”. In those days there were far fewer countries competing and Italy was nominated nearly every year. Bellocchio has the dubious distinction of being only the second and fifth director to fail to net Italy a nomination. But he’s in good company. Federico Fellini was third and fourth.

Outside the Foreign Film category, Finland’s Selma Vilhunen got an Oscar nomination for her 7-minute short film “Do I Have To Take Care of Everything” in 2014 and British actor Chiwetel Ejiofor netted a Best Actor nod the same year for “12 Years A Slave”.

Controversies and Changes: Well, “Joy” from AUSTRIA was disqualified. Director Sudabeh Mortezai wrote an impassioned letter to the Academy asking them to reconsider their decision but the fact is that the film is almost entirely in English. When I was making predictions for Austria, I assumed it was ineligible but once I saw the film on Netflix, it was clear from the moment I saw it that it would be disqualified. Austria should have known better.

The Netherlands originally announced a shortlist of nine mostly unheralded films. When they announced the winner a few weeks later, they chose a film ("Instinct") that hadn’t been on the original list at all.

Most Notable Omissions:  The three biggest snubs were costume drama “A Portrait of a Lady on Fire” (France), Best Documentary frontrunner “For Sama” (UK) and Oscar winner Alejandro Amenabar’s “While At War” (Spain), all of which fell victim to the one-film-per-country rule. Also out early: “All About Me” (Germany), “Anori” (Greenland), “Before the Frost” (Denmark), “Beware of Children” (Norway), “By the Grace of God” (France), “The County” (Iceland), “Daniel” (Denmark), “The German Lesson” (Germany), “Martin Eden” (Italy), “Non-Fiction” (France), “One Last Deal” (Finland) and “Young Ahmed” (Belgium).

Familiar Faces: Obviously, the most familiar faces are Antonio Banderas and Penelope Cruz who co-star as mother and son in “Pain and Glory”. Chiwetel Ejiofor (“The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind”) and Stellan Skarsgard (“Out Stealing Horses”) are also on screen this year. Fans of Game of Thrones and Aladdin will recognize Dutch actors Carice van Houten and Marwan Kenzari co-starring in “Instinct”. There’s also Lubna Azabal (“Tel Aviv on Fire”), Cecilia Roth and Leonardo Sbaraglia (both also from “Pain and Glory”). Denmark's Trine Dyrholm isn’t a household name in the West, but fans of this category will remember her from Oscar nominees “In A Better World” and “A Royal Affair”.

Last year's race:   I managed to see 14 out of the 17 nominees from Western Europe. “What Will People Say” (Norway) and “The Guilty” (Denmark) were by far the best, and I give both an ‘A’ grade…. It’s a shame neither got nominated. The others (in order): Sweden (A-), Finland (A-; not sure why everyone hated this film), Italy (B+), Iceland (B+), Belgium (B), Netherlands (B), UK (B), Spain (B-), Luxembourg (B-), Greece (C), France (C-) and Austria (C-).

I only missed the three-hour-long Oscar nominee “Never Look Away” (I don’t like long movies) and the two obscure films from Portugal (I found the DVD in a Lisbon FNAC but it didn’t have English subtitles) and Switzerland (which will finally be released on DVD in the USA in December 2019).

NEXT: On December 14th, I'll publish the final 22 entries from Eastern Europe. I'm waiting to see "The Whistlers" on Friday night. 

2019 Oscar Submissions- The Middle East, Africa & Australia (17 films)

Here are the 17 films from the Middle East, Africa and Australasia.

Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to see very many of the films (only 5).  

FRONT-RUNNERS

1.     ISRAEL- “Incitement”

2.     SENEGAL- “Atlantique”

Though these are the front-runners from Africa and the Middle East, as of now, I’m not confident either of them makes the shortlist. Each one is a potential dark horse for one committee but not the other. Submitting for only the second time , SENEGAL won the Cannes Jury Prize for “Atlantique”, a ghostly drama about a young woman in Dakar where many young people are seeking to illegally live in Europe. She's engaged to a rich man she doesn't like, and in love with a poor man who leaves her to work in Europe illegally. That's when the ghosts show up and set her mattress on fire.....So, Ada is having a bad week. It’s a critical darling but I didn’t like it….and I suspect mainstream audiences won’t either. It’s only hope is an elite committee “save”…But as the top contender from Africa, it is likely they could get that spot again (Senegal presumably got a “save” for Berlinale Jury Prize winner “Félicité”  two years ago) just for the sake of regional diversity and to ward off future angry tweets from Ava DuVernay. The large committee used to be a big fan of ISRAEL (though they haven’t been nominated since 2011) and “Incitement” is supposed to be a very original political thriller, focused on the Israeli terrorist who murdered Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Seeking to explain the mental motivations of an evil individual, it could follow in the footsteps of “Downfall”, in this case unapologetic assassin Yigal Amir (who has somehow been allowed to meet a wife and father two children while in an Israeli prison). Not sure how voters will respond to a film that tries to get into the head of a murderer…but it worked for “Paradise Now”. It’s on the bubble.

DARK HORSES:

3.     ALGERIA- “Papicha”

4.     IRAN- “Finding Farideh”

5.     MOROCCO- “Adam”

6.     TUNISIA- “Dear Son”

The three Maghrebian countries have each selected an intimate drama from Cannes about the difficulties of life in the modern Arab world. All deal with controversial issues- feminism, jihadism, teenage pregnancy- and all have gotten mostly positive reviews. However, I doubt any of them will have the gravitas to make it to the next round. “Papicha” from ALGERIA has already achieved a minor miracle by making it to the Oscar competition at all. Algerian authorities banned its release at the very last-minute (after it had already been selected to represent the country) but AMPAS proved unusually flexible and allowed the film to compete anyway. Contrary to the pouty, passive aggressive remarks by Nigeria's Genevieve Nnaji, France-based director Mounia Meddour said that “the Oscar committee showed is good faith and was sensitive to the sincerity of our request and for the freedom of expression.”  “Papicha” is a feminist drama set in the violent 1990s, about a group of university women who decide to put on a fashion show despite a civil war in which an Islamist group was killing random women for failing to wear the veil. An ultra-liberal Algerian friend of mine saw the film and claimed it would indeed touch a nerve in 2019 Algeria, where (peaceful) anti-government protesters have been in the streets for months. To my shock and surprise, he agreed it would be dangerous to show in Algeria right now. I haven’t been able to see it yet but Meddour says Algerians are going to see it in Tunisia. Most reviews praise the “girl power” themes but also say the film has flaws. Variety called it “narratively uneven” but it's definitely gunning for Senegal's African "save". 

TUNISIA has selected “Dear Son”, a film about a devoted married couple who pour all their time, money and energy into their introverted 19-year old son Sami.  When he disappears in the middle of the night leaving his parents a chilling farewell note, the couple’s life falls apart. Produced by the Brothers Dardennes, this is an interesting film that sparked a lot of discussion between my friend and I. But Oscar does not like the Brothers Dardennes. And although this film is better than theirs, the very slow beginning and some of the plot ambiguities are likely to turn off enough American viewers to knock this one out of the running. MOROCCO has the best reviews of the three, but has been seen by far fewer people. This story of a homeless and pregnant runaway from a middle-class home who finds solace with a poor, cantankerous widow is an interesting variation on the once-successful “Kolya” (cranky old person + adorable young person) formula. But probably too small to score here. 

As for IRAN, they made a surprise choice by selecting documentary “Finding Farideh” about a Dutch woman who seeks to find her birth parents who gave her up for adoption in Iran 40 years before, around the time of the Iranian Revolution. Though we can’t rule it out entirely, “Honeyland” from Macedonia is the documentary most likely to be “saved” this year....But "Farideh" is supposed to be a wonderful film that makes you laugh and cry.....and perhaps this will give it a boost in the super competitive Best Documentary Feature category.

MIDDLE OF THE PACK:

7.      PALESTINE- “It Must Be Heaven”

8.      AUSTRALIA- “Buoyancy”
9.      SOUTH AFRICA- “Knuckle City”

10.  SAUDI ARABIA- “The Perfect Candidate”

All four of these films have their fans and three out of four have had multiple successes with Oscar, but I don't think reviews have been kind enough to believe that they really have a chance to advance. But I haven't seen any of them so it's hard to tell. Let's take a look:

AUSTRALIA- Human trafficking drama "Buoyancy" is about a young Cambodian sold into slavery on a Thai fishing vessel. Reviews are good but it's said to be a difficult watch and this sort of hyper-realism/tragedy doesn't always play well ("Lore" didn't managed a shortlist spot, though "The Notebook" did).

PALESTINE- Elia Suleiman is known as the Palestinian Charlie Chaplin and his films are adored by European arthouse critics for their comic look at the difficulties of being Palestinian. "It Must Be Heaven", filmed in France, Canada and the USA, is said to be his most accessible film yet. However, this is not European arthouse....his humor doesn't seem to translate across the Atlantic. I've hated both of the previous films I've seen, and I think his films are likely to go the same way as every Roy Andersson picture- quickly forgotten.

SAUDI ARABIA's feminist "The Perfect Candidate"- about a Saudi woman overcoming the odds to run for local office in the rapidly changing Kingdom- has got to be one of the sentimental favorites. Who wouldn't want to nominate Haifaa al-Mansour, especially after "Wadjda" was snubbed? Unfortunately, critics say "Candidate" isn't quite as good as "Wadjda" and that it's main point of interest is its window in Saudi Arabian life. Still, it's near the top of my list of "2019 Films I Want To See". 


SOUTH AFRICA, tirelessly trying to repeat their "Tsotsi" win, has selected yet another urban drama set in the townships. "Knuckle City" is a grim boxing drama about an aging boxer and South Africa's toxic masculinity culture. No major awards, no buzz, and likely a difficult watch.

VERY UNLIKELY:

11.  LEBANON- “1982”

12.  KENYA- “Subira”
13.  ETHIOPIA- “Running Against the Wind”

14.  GHANA- “Azali”

Let's start with the three obscure African titles. First of all, I'm so happy to see countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and (for the first time!) Ghana competing in this category. I can't wait to see these films. "Subira" from KENYA is a Swahili-language film shot over the course of four years so you really see Subira, a young Muslim woman, grow up on screen. A tomboy who enjoys swimming, Subira is eventually forced by her family to conform to a strict religious upbringing and early marriage. Directed by German helmer Jan Philippe Weyl, ETHIOPIA is represented by "Running Against the Wind", about two brothers who grow up together. One finds success, the other remains in his impoverished village, until they meet up again as adults. The most obscure film on the Oscar list, I can't even find a trailer online. Although they had a committee approved in 2017, GHANA took three years to make their Oscar debut with "Azali", a human trafficking drama about a greedy family that forces their teenage daughter to go work in the capital. She is exploited and forced into prostitution, and desperately tries to find her way back home. All these films are low-budget works of love. I think they will all make a positive impression, but don't have a chance of making the top tier. 

LEBANON is hoping to make it three in a row with "1982", after receiving its first two Oscar nominations ever for "The Insult" and "Capernaum". That's unlikely to happen with "1982" (Toronto), about the lives of ordinary schoolchildren during the First Lebanon War between Israel & Lebanon. Reviews have been okay, but the trailer looks boring and nobody seems terribly impressed by it. 

BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR:

15.  TURKEY- “Commitment: Asli”

16.  EGYPT- “Poisonous Roses”

17.  NIGERIA- “Lionheart”

So, yes, I know that NIGERIA has been disqualified because they sent an English-language film. And, yes, I know Ava DuVernay is very upset about this, because she doesn’t understand what "non-English dialogue " means. But even if Nigeria hadn’t been disqualified, I would rank “Lionheart” dead last. It’s not a bad film….and it’s certainly not the worst film on the list. But it is a formulaic, lightweight and mostly forgettable sit-com of a movie. And while a pleasant sit-com may be fun to watch, it’s not getting an Oscar. And, yes, it is almost entirely in English and deserved to be disqualified. 

“Commitment: Asli” got a last-minute release to represent TURKEY, and is supposed to be the first film in a “Commenitment” trilogy by arthouse director Semih Kaplanoğlu. Let me explain the plot to you. It’s about a married career woman who hires a young woman to take care of her newborn baby. She gets jealous of the young woman…..and….well….for 2 ½ hours, that’s about it. Of the 42 films I’ve seen, this is the only one where I suspect I fell asleep a few times. For me, it was simply not a very interesting story and it should have been edited into a 30-minute short film. Perhaps someone with parenting experience who enjoys watching a baby monitor will like it . Unlike the overlong “Asli”, the spare 70-minute “Poisonous Roses” from EGYPT is the shortest film in the Foreign Oscar competition. It’s a grim drama about an impoverished family- mother, son and daughter- and their lives in a Cairo slum. The daughter is seemingly obsessed with her brother, who mostly ignores her and dreams of working abroad. It’s interesting “poverty porn”, but it’s confusing and low-budget and won’t have a chance here.

Now the statistics:

Number of countries who have participated in the past: 31……18 from Africa, 11 from the Middle East plus Australia and New Zealand.

Number of countries participating this year:  17, plus Burkina Faso which unsuccessfully tried to submit an entry.  

Number of debuts: 2- Nigeria (disqualified) and Ghana

Number of countries opting out:  Technically 13….But the only regular contributors to be absent are IRAQ and NEW ZEALAND. Both of them have submitted five of the past six years, so I was very surprised to see them missing. This is especially true for New Zealand, which had seemed very proud of “Vai” an omnibus film of eight South Pacific films made by women. It premiered in a Berlinale sidebar, and is likely the only time people in Hollywood would ever see places like Niue and the Solomon Islands on screen. Almost all the directors are NZ citizens or NZ-based and this was a real missed opportunity by the NZ Film Commission. L

Number I predicted correctly: Only 5- Australia, Kenya, Morocco, Senegal and Tunisia, mostly because many of the countries (like Ethiopia, Lebanon and Turkey) chose last-minute releases that I’d never even heard of.

Already Seen: 5. These films have been almost impossible to find. I’ve only seen the nominees from Egypt, Nigeria (DQ), Senegal, Tunisia and Turkey.

Film I'm most looking forward to seeing: Definitely “The Perfect Candidate”, a peek into the life of women in Saudi Arabia.

Number of Female Directors:  7! That’s over 40%! Ravneet Sippy Chadha (Kenya), Mati Diop (Senegal), Haifaa al-Mansour (Saudi Arabia), Mounia Meddour (Algeria), Azadeh Moussavi (Iran), Genevieve Nnaji (Nigeria) and Maryam Touzani (Tunisia)

Oldest and Youngest Directors: Probably 59-year old Elia Suleiman (Palestine) and 29-year old Kourosh Ataee (Iran)

Number of Foreign Languages Represented:  Lots of multi-lingual films here, but it seems that we have 5 in Arabic and one each in Akan, Amharic, Hebrew, Swahili, Turkish, Wolof and Xhosa and (because Nigeria doesn’t want to follow the rules) English. Five are roughly bilingual: Persian/Dutch (Iran), French/Arabic (Algeria), Thai/Khmer (Australia) while Palestine’s odd entry is in a mix of Arabic, English and Spanish.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: Maybe four? 

Buzziest film:  “Atlantique” from Senegal

Oscar History: Four of these directors have been here before, including South Africa’s Jahmil X.T. Qubeka, one of the few directors in recent history to represent his country two years in a row (“Sew the Winter to My Skin” repped SA last year). The others are Elia Suleiman (“Divine Intervention”, 2003), Semih Kaplanoğlu (“Honey”, 2010) and Haifaa al-Mansour (“Wadjda”, 2013).

Controversies and Changes: Well, everyone is focused on the (totally justified) disqualification of Nigeria’s “Lionheart”. While Genevieve Nnaji and Ava DuVernay have ignorantly complained and made thinly veiled allegations of racism, the fact is that they didn’t read the one rule that has remained unchanged for decades- that films have to be in a language other than English.

More upsetting (but not widely reported) was the failure to accept the first submission from BURKINA FASO in thirty years, the self-declared home of African arthouse cinema. Writer-director Apolline Traore tried unsuccessfully to enter “Desrances”, which followed all the rules but unfortunately Burkina Faso did not have a recognized Oscar selection committee. It’s a shame that Ava duVernay used her celebrity to come to the defense of a ridiculously unqualified Nigerian film, when two other talented female filmmakers of color (Burkina Faso and Afghanistan) whose films met Oscar rules were disqualified on technicalities.

Most Notable Omissions: As mentioned before, the most shocking omission this year is “Vai” from New Zealand. Also absent: “The Burial of Kojo” (Ghana),  “Castle of Dreams” (Iran), “Screwdriver” (Palestine), “Amra and the Second Marriage” (Saudi Arabia), “Moffie” and “The Harvesters” (South Africa), “A Tale of Three Sisters” and “Sibel” (Turkey).

Familiar Faces: The biggest international star is Gael Garcia Bernal (“It Must Be Heaven”) but you’re also likely to recognize Nadine Labaki (“1982”) and Lubna Azabal (“Adam”).

Last year's race:   I saw 12 of the 17 films submitted last year, including my favorite film from last year’s competition- “Beauty and the Dogs” from Tunisia.  Also deserving of a nomination was “10 Days Before the Wedding” from Yemen, whose backstory was as good as the film itself. I also saw Algeria (B-), Egypt (B), Iran (B+), Iraq (B), Israel (A-), Kenya (B+), Lebanon (A-), Malawi (B), New Zealand (D) and Palestine (C).