OSCARS 2023: Predictions for Western Europe

 And here's the final batch of 20 countries.....This is cheating a little because two countries (Germany, Ireland and Switzerland) have already announced and two more have announced their shortlists (Netherlands and Spain). 

 AUSTRIA- “Corsage” Austria will probably go with costume biopic “Corsage”, which won Best Actress for Vicky Krieps at Cannes (Un Certain Regard) for playing a distinguished 19^th century Empress. Reviews have been good and it looks like the film will be getting an Oscar-qualifying release in the U.S. to compete in the tech categories. Its main competition comes from “Rimini”, a dramedy about a man returning to his childhood home after the death of his mother. It competed at Berlinale and won Best Picture at the Diagonale Awards for Austrian cinema, over last year's critical darling “Great Freedom”. Both directors have just missed out on representing Austria in past years. Dark horses: WWII revenge drama “Schachten”, Italian-language drama “Vera” (due to premiere in Venice) and “Above the Ground”, about a wealthy young man who becomes a hermit.

 BELGIUM- "Close" Belgium essentially has two separate national film industries, based in the Dutch and French-speaking regions of the country. Films from the smaller French side (Wallonie) have been sent of the Oscars seven of the past ten years and the majority of this year's contenders come from there too. However, almost everyone believes that the Belgian entry will be queer adolescent drama "Close" which won the Grand Prix (2nd Place) at Cannes, from the Flemish side (Flanders). It's definitely the buzziest and most critically acclaimed Belgian film of the year and Lukas Dhont was selected four years ago. But all three Flemish directors selected in the past ten years are back with new films. Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen ("Broken Circle Breakdown") has the critically acclaimed Italian-language "Eight Mountains" (Cannes Jury Prize) while Robin Pront has discotheque drama "Zillion". From the French side, the Brothers Dardennes are back with "Tori and Lokita" (Cannes). They've been selected four times- more than any other Belgian director- but this refugee drama isn't as acclaimed as some of their other films. Other strong Walloon options include "Rebel", a drama about a Muslim family starring Lubna Azabal, "The Damned Don't Cry" (Venice Days) and boxing drama "Final Round". I think it will be "Close"....but "Eight Mountains", and possibly also "Rebel", are going to give it a run for the money. 

 DENMARK- “Forever” Denmark (pop: 6 million) is currently the most successful country in the world, in this category. In twelve years, they’ve been nominated seven times, winning twice. They’ve only failed to make the shortlist three times since then. So, despite their small size, they aim to win every year (and "Flee" would have been a better winner last year than the soporific "Drive My Car"). They’re scheduled to announce a 3-film shortlist on September 5. Although it’s a weak year and I don’t necessarily expect them to be nominated, they have plenty to choose from. I’m predicting the three shortlisted films will be “Forever”, a box-office hit about a family dealing with the unexpected loss of a family member, “Miss Viborg”, a comedy-drama about the intergenerational friendship between two dysfunctional women, and “Rose”, about a woman and her disabled sister on a road trip.  Niels Arden Oplev has been selected in 2008 for “World Apart”, so I was going to predict “Rose”, but “Forever” has gotten such strong notices at home and was selected for a major festival (San Sebastian) so I'm switching. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 19^th century period drama “As In Heaven” (Best Director, San Sebastian), Afghan documentary “Taliban Land”, WWII thriller/sequel “Out of the Darkness” or even music biopic “Bamse” (director Henrik Ruben Genz is Oscar Short Film nominee) on the shortlist. I’ve seen people mention “Holy Spider” (Swedish) and “Godland” (Icelandic), but they don’t meet the nationality requirements, while buzzy Sundance horror flick “Out of the Darkness” is mostly in English.

 FINLAND- “Girl Picture” After winning the Audience Award at Sundance, adolescent drama “Girl Picture” (Berlin, 14+) automatically went to the front of the list for Finland. “The Woodcutter Story” played at Cannes but reviews aren’t strong enough . I think “Girl” is pretty safe, but two previously selected Finnish directors have new films coming out later this year. Aleksi Salmenperä (2004, 2007) made the delightful quirky “Man’s Job” and now has “Bubble”, about a teenage girl who suspects her mother of being involved in a lesbian affair, while Aleksi Mäkelä (1999) has ice hockey drama “Laitapuolen hyökkääjä”. 

 FRANCE- TBD France is the only country in the world to have submitted every year since the creation of the category in 1956. As usual, they have dozens of films to choose from and I'll update this once France announces their shortlist on September 15. 

 GERMANY- “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” WRITTEN BEFORE GERMANY ANNOUNCED (So much for predicting a long shot). Germany announced a 9-film shortlist on August 16^th, containing mostly little-known films. Basic rom-com “Mostly Minimalistic” and “Nico”- a  spare, 79-minute "feel-good" drama about a Muslim nurse trying to becoming a karate champion- aren’t competitive, and early reviews for Til Schweiger’s grief drama “Lieber Kurt” haven’t been kind. Three more films on the list- feminist “Talking about the Weather”, quirky pandemic thriller “We Might as Well be Dead” (both from Berlin), and “No One’s With the Calves” (Locarno 2021), a drama about rural boredom, all appear to be too small to represent a country as important as Germany. So that leaves just three serious contenders- two more Berlin entries- WWII drama “The Forger” and black comedy “Rabiye Kurnaz vs. George Bush” (winner, Best Actress and Screenplay)- and the hotly anticipated Netflix WWI movie, “All Quiet on the Western Front”, with Daniel Brühl. “Forger”, about a young German Jew living life to the fullest via a fake identity in 1940s Berlin, has positive but not outstanding reviews…but it’s exactly the sort of film that traditionally nets Germany nominations or at least spots on the shortlist (like "Two Lives" or the mediocre “Labyrinth of Lies”). “Rabiye Kurnaz”, about a mild-mannered immigrant housewife who fights to get her dim-witted son released from Guantanamo Bay, has a great U.S. hook (former President Bush likely has few fans in the Academy) and it won second prize at the German Film Awards (winner “Dear Thomas” was on Germany's shortlist last year but wasn’t picked). Right now, "Rabiye" is the frontrunner. But it all depends on the reaction to “All Quiet”, which will premiere in Toronto before moving to Netflix. Told from the perspective of a terrified German soldier, this is serious competition for the much lighter “Rabiye”…and Germany already sent a rare comedy last year. I know that this is probably going to be “All Quiet” but I’m keeping “Rabiye” as my prediction for now until people can actually tell me if that film is any good or not. 

 GREECE - “Magnetic Fields” Many people say that Greece always sends the winner of Best Picture at the Hellenic Film Awards (like Israel) but this isn't true. Although they did send “Digger” last year, that was the first time their selections matched in five years.  Still, it would be foolish to bet against this year’s winner- comedy-drama “Magnetic Fields”- which also won Best Greek Film at the Thessaloniki Film Festival (which used to go to the Oscars automatically). I’m personally hoping they pick “Dodo”, a screwball comedy by a previously selected director about a wealthy family in distress, and the only Greek film at Cannes 2022. Other options: crime drama “Pack of Sheep” and immigrant drama “Holy Emy” both lost Best Picture to “Magnetic Fields”, while the challenging “The City and the City”, about Greece’s lost Jewish community, played at a Berlinale sidebar; “Purgatory” tells seven stories about modern love; Holocaust documentary “The Students of Umberto Primo” looks at Greece under Nazi occupation.

 GREENLAND- “Into the Ice” Greenland, the smallest country in the competition (pop: 60,000) hasn’t sent a film since 2012. I don’t think they have anything eligible but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Into the Ice”, an intriguing Danish documentary (Variety said it made science “sexy”) about the melting ice caps in Greenland. 

 ICELAND- “Beautiful Beings” With two critically acclaimed films eligible, Iceland will have to make the difficult decision of Berlin versus Cannes. Brutal youth drama “Beautiful Beings” premiered at Berlin Panorama while period piece “Godland” premiered in Un Certain Regard at Cannes. The two films share some producers and crew in common who will be celebrating regardless of which film gets picked. I’m predicting “Beautiful Beings”, which has slightly strong reviews and also because director Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson was expected to represent Iceland in 2017 for “Heartstone” but was unexpectedly snubbed for the cute but forgettable comedy “Under the Tree”. The director of “Godland”, about a 19^th century Danish priest who slowly goes mad after being sent to a remote Icelandic village, has been picked once before for “A White White Day” (which I did not like). It’s a more challenging film and tiny Iceland will want to maximize its chances of making the shortlist two years in a row. “Beings” will have a better shot. Unlikely but possible: period drama “Reply to a Letter from Helga”, about a forbidden love affair, and raucous hit comedy sequel “The Very Last Fishing Trip”. 

 IRELAND- “The Quiet Girl” (WRITTEN BEFORE THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT) Few countries have an easier choice this year than Ireland. “The Quiet Girl” is primarily in Irish, it has gotten a cinematic release, it won two awards at a major film festival (in the K+ Section in Berlin), and has done extremely well with critics and audiences. To top it all off, it just won Best Picture at the Irish Film Awards, defeating the favorite, “Belfast”. Ireland doesn’t produce many films in Irish, so this film about a young girl thriving in a foster case home who discovers a secret, is a shoo-in. 

 ITALY- “Nostalgia”  Italy has more wins in this category than any other country, but they’ve only been nominated three times in the past 20 years (twice for Paolo Sorrentino, and once for “Don’t Tell”, probably the most forgettable nominee I’ve ever seen).  The Italian Academy prefers established directors. They’ve never selected a new director, and in the past twenty years, 17 of their Oscar submissions were made by directors who represented the country more than once (and one of the three others- Claudio Caligari- was selected mostly out of sympathy after he died unexpectedly). So the Italians definitely play favorites. In fact, they've only chose a really young, up-and-coming director  once in recent memory- Jonas Carpignano (“A Ciambra”). In the past 30 years, they’ve also only picked one woman (who was their second choice after their first choice was disqualified). So we’re looking for a new movie by an older, established, male director...and we have lots of movies that fit the profile. This year we have new movies by Gianni Amelio (selected 4 times w/1 Oscar nom; “Lord of the Ants”; Venice), Pupi Avati (selected once; “Dante”), Marco Bellocchio (selected three times; “Exterior Night”), Emanuele Crialese (selected twice; “L”Immensita; Venice), Mario Martone (“Nostalgia”, Cannes), Michele Placido (“Caravaggio’s Shadow”), Paolo Taviani (selected twice, “Leonora Addio”, Berlin), and Paolo Virzi (selected twice; "Siccita”). These eight will be the frontrunners alongside Belgian co-production “Eight Mountains” (Cannes). All eight Italian directors are men over 55 (three are over 80; Taviani is 90). 

Cannes Jury Prize winner “Eight Mountains” is probably the most critically acclaimed Italian film of the year but Italy has never selected a film by a foreign director (Oscar nominee Felix van Groeningen has repped Belgium twice). “Leonora Addio” has the weakest notices, but the Taviani Brothers were an institution, and this is probably 90-year old Paolo’s last film. The other two films that have been seen by critics are “Nostalgia”, which is the sort of grim Neopolitan drama that the Italian Academy loves, and “Exterior Night”, which is a 5 ½ hour film that premiered at a Cannes sidebar which will be re-edited into a TV series. The other five will premiere later this year: two costume biopics, 14th century “Dante” and 16th century “Caravaggio’s Shadow”, LGBT drama “Lord of the Ants” and two new films headlined by big stars- family drama “L’Immensita” (with Penelope Cruz) and comedy “Siccita” (with Monica Bellucci). Mario Martone is felt to be overdue (he probably came in 2^nd place at least twice) so “Nostalgia” is my prediction, although I think that the starpower of Penelope Cruz could win out if “L’immensita” wins something big at Venice. These are my two top predictions, although I think “Eight Mountains” and the two glossy costume dramas, “Dante” and “Caravaggio’s Shadow” will be in Italy's Top 5. Other films that could be on Italy’s (usually very long) longlist- “The Adventures of Gigi the Law”, “Cattivo Sangue”, “Chiara” (Venice), “The Code of Silence” ,“Grand Bolero”, “Il pataffio”, “Princess”, “Small Body”, and documentary “Into My Name”.

 LUXEMBOURG- “The Way to Happiness” Most of Luxembourg’s films are co-productions but ever since they were disqualified over nationality issues in 2006, they’ve always made sure to send films by local Luxembourgian directors- with one controversial exception. In 2019, they sent Israeli film “Tel Aviv on Fire” (which I loved!) and- surprisingly- it was accepted. But they prefer local Luxembourgian directors, which is why I’m predicting “The Way to Happiness” a French-language dramedy by Nicolas Steil that’s been compared (mostly unfavorably) to “Life is Beautiful”. It’s about a Holocaust survivor forced to confront his past when a foreign director decides to make a movie about his life. Reviews have been mixed but I suspect American audiences will be more forgiving than European ones. There’s also Italian-language “Lost Flowers”, a personal documentary about the COVID pandemic and German-language coming-of-age dramedy “Raspberries with Mustard”. Their directors aren’t local but supposedly they’re majority LUX productions. If Luxembourg wants to pull a “Tel Aviv on Fire” and claim a film rejected by its host country, they could consider “A Fleeting Encounter” (Switzerland) or “Where is Anne Frank?” (Israel) which have Luxembourgian producers, or perhaps “Corsage”, which I assume will be claimed by Austria. 

 MALTA- “Uwijja” Tiny Malta deserved to make the Oscar shortlist last year for “Luzzu”…but they didn’t because the Oscar committee apparently has no taste. The only Maltese-language feature I know of this year is “Uwijja”, about a man who goes missing, setting into play a tragic series of events. Rebecca Cremona, who directed their first-ever submission, has a new WWII epic in production and will probably rep the island next year. 

 NETHERLANDS- “Sea of Time” In August, the Netherlands announced it would be considering eleven, mostly very obscure films. I’ll probably get in trouble for saying this but it saddens me that there aren’t many authentically “Dutch” films on the list- one is in Italian, one in Russian, one in Persian, one in Arabic, with one about Senegalese asylum seekers….That leaves only half the list actually about Dutch subjects. But that’s their prerogative…And, in fact, the two frontrunners- “Sea of Time” and “Pink Moon”- actually are authentically Dutch stories. “Sea of Time” was selected to open the Nederlands Film Festival later this year and is a grand film in the style of their submissions in the 90s and 00s (back when the Netherlands used to get nominated!! That hasn’t happened in twenty years….). It focuses on a loving couple who lose their child on a boating trip in the 70s, and then meet up again forty years later. “Pink Moon”, which got strong reviews in Tribeca, sounds more like my cup of tea- it’s a darkly comic drama about an elderly man who informs his daughter that he wishes to peacefully end his own life. But it’s a wide-open race. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Netherlands went with the sentimental choice- “Along the Way”- a drama about Afghan refugees starring two real-life twin sisters (director Mijke de Jong has been selected twice before) or “El Houb”, an LGBT film about a gay Moroccan-Dutch man coming out to his conservative family (including Lubna Azabal, who also co-stars as the wife in Morocco’s similarly themed “Blue Caftan”). I think it will be one of these four. Unlikely but possible: moral dilemma drama “The Photo Camera”, unreleased family drama “Narcosis” and Soviet POW documentary “Turn Your Body to the Sun”. Out of luck: “Shabu” (Berlin 14+), an upbeat documentary about a Surinamese-Dutch teen, Italian-language crime drama “Last Ride of the Wolves” and two “kids in peril” family films, “Bigman” and “Totem”. 

 NORWAY- “Narvik” Norway had a banner year last year, getting an Oscar nomination for “Worst Person in the World” (which I was hoping would win over the tedious and overrated mess of “Drive My Car”) after missing much deserved nominations for “Hope” and “What Will People Say”. The critically acclaimed “The Innocents” and “Nothing To Laugh About” didn’t even make the Norwegian shortlist last year, which shows what a strong year it was for Norwegian cinema. This year is a bit thinner, and I don’t see many films with a chance to make their traditional three-film shortlist. Favorite “Narvik”, about Norway fighting the Nazis, will certainly be on the list. I expect it will be joined by comedy “Sick of Myself” (Cannes UCR) and either small-town drama “A Human Position” or “Krigsseileren”, another WWII drama. Other options: Roar Uthaug is Norway’s “big-budget” director and his new monster movie “Troll” could make the shortlist, even though it won’t actually be selected; upcoming biopic “Munch” is about one of Norway’s most celebrated artists (I hate biopics); and documentary “Name of the Game” (Trond Giske) is about political corruption. 

 PORTUGAL- "Tommy Guns"- Last year, Portugal picked a movie where the director read random letters to the audience, while the camera focused off to the side, as if it was bored. The year before, they picked a plotless movie featuring a woman mumbling in the dark for over two hours. The year before that was somewhat less embarrassing; they picked a three-hour Portuguese soap opera channeling Falcon Crest. Portugal holds the record for the most Oscar submissions (38) without ever being nominated (or shortlisted). I’m not certain they’ve ever even come close….I’ve seen nine of these 38 films; most were terrible and even the best one (“Blood of My Blood”) was a 7.5/10. Sorry Portugal. Having said that, 2022 has been a strong year for Portugal and five previously submitted directors have new films. Most people are predicting “Will-o-the-Wisp”, a weird 67-minute gay musical comedy set in the year 2069; it played at Cannes and I actually want to see it. “Remains of the Wind” (by the director of their 2019 soap opera) is supposed to be good too; it’s about a reunion of friends after 25 years. Angolan war drama “Tommy Guns” (Locarno) is probably the most acclaimed Portuguese film of the year. Angola doesn’t have a committee, but the director is Portuguese-Angolan and the film is set amidst Angola’s war for independence against Portugal. Wouldn’t it be funny if Portugal got their first nomination for a film made in another country? For the last few years, Portugal has announced a shortlist of 4-6 films before their announcement. I predict the other films on the list will be family drama “Mal Viver”, “Nothing Ever Happened”, about teens from dysfunctional families and “Alma Viva” (Cannes Critics Week), about a girl from a small village dealing with her grandmother’s death. But “Amadeo”, “The Child”, “Great Yarmouth” (too much English?) and “Revolta” could be on the list too. Not eligible: I think royal historical drama “Pedro” will count for Brazil.  Prediction: Unless they hear that Angola is forming a committee (which they should!), Portugal will grab “Tommy Guns”. 

 SPAIN- "Lullaby" (Cinco Lobitos) Spain announced their usual three-film shortlist on August 25. There were no big surprises; the list included critically-acclaimed dramas "Alcarràs" (Winner, Berlinale 2022), "The Beasts" (San Sebastian) and "Lullaby" (Berlin Panorama). All-star comedy and box-office hit "Official Competition" probably came in 4th place and will now have to hope it gets picked by Argentina. Spain has a tough choice. All three finalists are well regarded by both critics and audiences, and I'd argue that all of them could potentially make the final 15 at the Oscars. Two of the directors have been in the race for an Oscar before. In 2017, Carla Simon became the third woman and the second director working in the Catalan language to represent Spain, with "Summer 1993". In 2019, Rodrigo Sorogoyen got an Oscar nomination in the Live-Action Short category for the brilliant thriller "Mother".  Alauda Ruiz de Azúa is making her feature debut (which could hurt her since Spain usually selects established directors). Interestingly, the three directors and three films represent Spain's four main ethnic regions- "Alcarràs" is from Catalonia, "Lullaby" is from the Basque Country, and "The Beasts" was made in Galicia by a Castilian Spanish director. "Alcarràs", about a family of farmers in turmoil when their new landowner sells the property they've worked for generations, is the favorite by virtue of its Berlin win.  But although Berlin Golden Bear winners are almost always selected for the Oscars when eligible (nine times since 2000), they're not usually nominated (just 3 times out of nine).  According to websites like IMDB, Letterboxd and Rotten Tomatoes, it's mother-daughter drama "Lullaby" that has the strongest reviews. For the record, it's thriller "The Beasts" that looks like the best film, and the one I'm hoping for....but I'm pretty sure it will come third. All three films would make a strong contender for Spain but my prediction is that it's between the two women. "Alcarràs" has the box-office and the Berlin Prize. "Lullaby" has the support of Pedro Almodovar (who, despite complaining about the Spanish Academy, has been picked seven times) and the critics. The Spanish Academy votes with their hearts and often dumps the frontrunner- ask the cast and crew of "Talk to Her", "Everybody Knows" etc.....So I predict a surprise win for "Lullaby". Maybe that's because I'm still angry at Carla Simon for making me waste 95 minutes of my time watching kids play in their backyard in "Summer 1993", the worst Spanish submission I've seen yet....

 SWEDEN- "Holy Spider" Sweden usually announces a three-film shortlist before their final announcement and two of those spots are pretty much locked- Ali Abbasi's "Holy Spider" and Tarik Saleh's "Boy From Heaven". Both competed in the main competition at Cannes 2022 and won major awards, although they lost the Palme d'Or to fellow Swedish film "Triangle of Sadness" (which is in English). "Spider" is in Persian and "Heaven" is in Arabic, so I imagine Sweden would like to have one film in Swedish to round out the shortlist, and that will probably be "Burn My Letters', starring Bill Skarsgård, or "Comedy Queen", which won a Crystal Bear at Berlin in the 14+ category. It could also be Lena Olin's new film "Andra akten", LGBT documentary "Nelly & Nadine" or drama "Maya Nilo". But this is probably a race between the two Middle Eastern films (Sweden has selected films in Georgian and Russian to represent them before). "Holy Spider" won Best Actress for exiled Iranian actress Zar Amir-Ebrahimi (now based in France) while "Boy From Heaven" won Best Screenplay so it's a tight race. Serial killer thriller "Holy Spider", set in Iran, has the buzz and slightly warmer reviews so that's my prediction. 

 SWITZERLAND- “La ligne” “Piece of Sky” I was researching the nine films on Switzerland’s shortlist when they suddenly announced their submission would be the German-language “A Piece of Sky”, a tragic romance narrated by a choir (?!) that got mostly good reviews in Berlin. I’m going to mark this as “incorrect” for my predictions because I was going to predict “La ligne”, the other Swiss film in the Main Competition in Berlin, mainly because director Ursula Meier made the Oscar shortlist for “Sister”. The Swiss shortlist included five films from the German region (Winner “Piece of Sky”, plus “The Black Spider”, “Semret”, “Soul of a Beast” and “Unrest”), three films from the French region (my prediction “La ligne”, plus “Continental Drift” and “A Fleeting Encounter”) and one film from Spain (“La agua”) that seems to have no connection to Switzerland whatsoever. In terms of what films actually look interesting, I would have preferred they pick medieval horror-drama “Black Spider” (which sounds like “Sennentunschi”, one of my favorite Swiss films) or “A Fleeting Encounter”, a culture-clash drama with an international cast. 

 UNITED KINGDOM- “Winners” The UK obviously produces most of their movies in English but globalization (and the 2006 rule change allowing films in non-official languages of the host country) has meant that British directors have qualified to send films fairly regularly since 2008 (they’ve skipped three times). Before 2006, they mostly sent films in Welsh. Since then, only a quarter of entries have been Welsh films, with the rest in a motley crew of African, Asian and Middle Eastern languages, including two documentaries. If they want to go “native”, the frontrunners are two horror-dramas “The Feast” (in Welsh) and “Enys Men” (in Cornish). If they want to go with an international language, it could be “Winners” (in Persian), “The Anglistanis” (in Hindi), Afghan documentary “My Childhood, My Country” (in Persian) or “The Swimmers” (in Arabic). I was ready to predict “My Childhood, My Country”, a documentary twenty years in the making following the boy (now an adult man) from “Boy Mir”…but I think it aired on UK television first. And I fear inspiring Olympic refugee drama “The Swimmers” will have too much English to qualify. So, I think it’s between psychological horror-thriller “Enys Men” (the second feature film ever made in the dying Cornish language) and “Winners” (by an Afghan director who once represented Afghanistan), a Majidi-esque drama about two children trying to find the owner of a missing object. “Enys” has more buzz, “Winners” better reviews. I predict “Winners" will be the final submission. 

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

CYPRUS is the only EU country that doesn't participate in the Oscars, although they do make a number of respectable films each year, and they did join the European Film Promotion organization in 2016. If they finally join this year, it's likely to be ".dog", about a young man getting to know his father who has just been released from prison. It was nominated for three Greek Academy Awards, winning one. 

OSCARS 2023: Predictions for the Asia-Pacific Submissions

And here are the 28 countries from the Asia-Pacific region....

 

 AFGHANISTAN- “In her Hands” Whither Afghanistan. Even before the brutal Taliban retook the country in August 2021, forcing most of the country’s artists and filmmakers into exile or into hiding, Afghanistan was not doing well with AMPAS. Their selection committee was disqualified in 2019 (not sure why) and they failed to send a film in 2020. Now there are no films being made- and that's tragic.  I’ve seen every Afghan submission since 2010 and they’ve sent some truly wonderful films, deserving (in my view) at least two shortlist spots. On the bright side, two of Afghanistan's leading female directors are in pre-production on new films abroad. I'm sure Afghanistan will be absent from the Oscars for awhile, but for the sake of completion, I'll predict "In Her Hands", a documentary by Oscar-nominated female Afghan director Tamana Ayazi (doc short "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone") about the rise and fall of Afghanistan's first female mayor. It's due to premiere in Toronto and is produced by Hillary and Chelsea Clinton. There's also “The Endless War”, a low-budget action-thriller being touted as one of the last films made in the country before the Taliban takeover. 

 AUSTRALIA- “You Won’t Be Alone” English-speaking Australia has sent films to the Foreign Film category nine of the past ten years and they’ll be back again this year, probably with “You Won’t Be Alone”, by Macedonian-born, Melbourne-based Australian filmmaker Goran Stolevski. Starring Noomi Rapace (who co-starred in last year's “Lamb”, another horror flick in a language she does not speak), it’s a horror film about witchcraft and ancient curses in 19^th century Macedonia that already got a U.S. release in 2022. While not a likely nominee, this would be a high-profile submission…and let’s not forget that “Lamb” made the shortlist! The horror film faces a challenge from “We Are Still Here”, a series of short films by four Australian and four New Zealand directors about modern indigenous heroes (which could also be submitted by New Zealand).  

 BANGLADESH- “Hawa” Maritime thriller “Hawa”, about a group of fisherman who encounter a mysterious young woman at sea, is breaking box-office records in Bangladesh and is my prediction to go to the Oscars. However, there are some allegations that the film is a copy of Korea’s 2014 Oscar submission “Haemoo” (Sea Fog). If that becomes an issue (and Bangladesh is corrupt enough that it probably won't), I predict they'll send political thriller “Paap Punyo”, made by the country’s most influential film studio (which has supplied most of the country’s Oscar submissions). Other options: murder mystery “Redrum”, upcoming rural drama “Adom” and “Raat Jaga Phool”, which sounds like a combination of the first two (the murder of a boy in a rural area). I'm really hoping they don’t do a "Lula" (See Brazil 2010) and choose sycophantic biopic “Mujib: The Making of a Nation”, about Bangladesh’s first Prime Minister (and father of the current Prime Minister). Not eligible: “Rickshaw Girl”, probably the #1 Bangladeshi film of the year, and “No Land’s Man” (Busan), by Bangladesh’s leading international director- Mostofa Sarwar Farooki- who has been selected three times. Both are primarily in English.

 BHUTAN- “One Night in Thimphu” Bhutan was the Cinderella story of last year’s Oscars, netting a surprise nomination for the charming, low-budget indie “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”. Bhutan actually produces quite a lot of movies but most of them are made for purely local audiences. If you want to see some of them, there’s a new site/app called Samuh where you can watch them (a few have English subtitles). Bhutan doesn’t have any real Oscar contenders this year, but after last year's success they may choose to send one of their local films to give them some publicity, e.g. “One Night in Thimphu”, about a couple travelling to the capital to get a divorce. The filmmakers won a local Best Picture in Bhutan a few years back. If they send something, it will probably be selected more based on whether English subtitles are available rather than the quality of the film. 

 CAMBODIA - “Everything Will Be OK” If Cambodia, has its way, I predict they will send quirky mystery “Karmalink”, billed as Buddhism meets Sci-Fi. It's totally unique, very Cambodian, and it premiered in Venice last year where it got good reviews…but, with the exception of one producer, the director and crew are all foreign. American director Jake Wachtel is based in Cambodia…but I’m not sure if that counts. It should be noted that “Before the Fall”, which had an Australian director, did qualify in 2016 with a similar situation. With “Karmalink”’s eligibility in doubt, Cambodia’s sole Oscar nominee- documentarian Rithy Panh- will be waiting in the wings. His latest- “Everything Will Be Okay”- won an award in Berlin, but it’s generally considered his weakest work. Using static clay figurines similar to those from the Oscar-nominated “Missing Picture” this is a cerebral documentary-cum-fantasy about animals dominating a future human society. Critics complain that it is filled with overwhelming, droning French-language narration. I like Panh ("S21" is one of the best docs ever) but I’m rooting for "Karmalink". Dark horse: Cambodian director Davy Chou’s “Return to Seoul” (Cannes) is not very Cambodian at all, but may meet the nationality requirements for this story about a French-Korean adoptee returning to Korea to discover her roots. 

 CHINA- "Return to Dust" China makes the strangest choices and I think last year was the first year they picked the frontrunner (Zhang Yimou's low-key spy thriller "Cliff Walkers") since 2013. Although China makes some truly wonderful films, they don't send them. In the past ten years, the best film they've sent (according to both IMDB and Letterboxd) is kiddie cartoon "Ne Zha". That's sad....and very possibly true! (I've seen 9 out of 10 and personally liked "Caught in the Web" and "Go Away, Mr. Tumor", but they were hardly Oscar-worthy). Why not send "Shadow" or "Coffin in the Mountain"? Last year, was the first time they even tried to send a real Oscar contender since 2014, so here's hoping they'll send a quality film instead of a movie all critics find boring (2016), a poorly reviewed action blockbuster (2017) or a spy thriller no one likes (2018). So who are the five main Chinese contenders? "Lighting Up the Stars", a drama seeking to channel Czech winner "Kolya", "Nice View", a comedy-drama about a man trying to pay for his sister's surgery, and the only Best Picture nominee from the Hundred Flowers Awards to be eligible this year, "Return to Dust", an arthouse film about an arranged marriage and the only Chinese to compete at a major festival this year (Berlinale 2022), "Run Tiger Run", a well-received Chinese anime in the style of "Ne Zha", and "Snipers", a Korean War drama and the latest from Zhang Yimou (who repped China last year). Jackie Chan's "Home Operation", a Chinese version of "Escape from Mogadishu", about the evacuation of Chinese nationals from wartorn Yemen probably won't be finished in time. I'm in a good today so let's predict China's sends something good. I predict "Return to Dust", followed by "Lighting Up the Stars". 

 FIJI- Nothing Fiji sent a single film in 2005 but has no real domestic film industry and nothing eligible this year.

 HONG KONG- “Once Upon A Time in Hong Kong” If the year ended today, Hong Kong would probably pick “Mama’s Affair”, a soap opera cum family drama about a housewife seeking to return to her career as a talent manager. But there are three months left until the November 30th deadline and “Once Upon A Time in Hong Kong” could easily knock it down. The film has no release date yet, but it will 100% represent Hong Kong once it comes out- either this year or next year. The film reunites the cast and crew of “Infernal Affairs” (which was remade as Best Picture winner “The Departed”), including Andy Lau and Tony Leung, for this crime drama set in the 1980s. The Hong Kong Academy loves crime dramas, and this is one of the most expensive and hotly anticipated HK films in recent history. If it’s released by November 30, it’s in. If not, it’s probably “Mama”. Other options: “Barbarian Invasion” (Shanghai) and “A New Old Play” (Locarno 2021).

 INDIA- "RRR" India is almost impossible to predict. They make hundreds of movies in dozens of languages each year. In the past ten years, they've selected six regional films (in five different regional languages) and only two that could be described as traditional "Bollywood" (the goofy but charming "Barfi!" and the terribly dull "Gully Boy"). Four of the submissions ("The Good Road", "Liar's Dice", "Pebbles" and "Village Rockstars") were mostly unknown on the day they were chosen, and many popular favorites were ignored in favor of lesser films. So, it's surprising that this year, India appears to have reached a consensus that 3-hour Bollywood "RRR" is their best chance at an Oscar nomination in years. By some accounts the most expensive Indian film ever made, the film has done well with both Indian and Western critics, securing a Netflix deal and becoming one of only four Indian films in history to gross 10 billion rupees (about $150 million). And despite being popular with Hindi audiences and the "Bollywood"-style, it's also a regional film originally made in Telugu, whose film industry hasn't been selected for the Oscars since 1986. So, while it's not a sure thing (India's Academy makes weird choices), there's certainly no better prediction. Serious threats may come from Sanjay leela Bhansali's "Gangubai Kathiawadi" which played in a sidebar section of Berlinale, and "Aparajito" (in Bengali), a tribute to renowned Indian director Satyajit Ray, Other options that we may see on the shortlist: "Rocketry: The Nambi Effect" and "The Kashmir Files" (Hindi), "Bhoothakaalam" and "Freedom Fight" (Malayalam), "Mrugtushna" (Gujarati), "Taanakkaran" (Tamil), "Situ Ramam" (Telugu), and documentary "All that Breathes" (Hindi).  

 INDONESIA- “Before, Now and Then” (Nana) Indonesia’s two main contenders are about how difficult it is to be an Indonesian woman. “Before, Now and Then” competed at Berlinale where it won Best Supporting Actress, and “Photocopier” swept the National Film Awards late last year. If they do pick the festival cache of “Before, Now and Then”, 36-year old Kamila Andini will have been selected two years in a row. The film is about a woman living amidst the political turmoil of Indonesia in the 1960s. Back in the present-day, “Photocopier” follows a similar theme, this time a woman from a conservative family who is thrown out of her home and loses her scholarship when scandalous photos (which she cannot remember) surface on social media. Dark horses include “Preman”, a crime drama with a deaf protagonist, and the upcoming “Autobiography”, which is premiering in Venice but unlikely to get a local release in time (but will be a probable frontrunner for next year). I think "Before Now and Then" will be picked. 

 JAPAN- TBD

 KAZAKHSTAN- “Scheme” Kazakhstan has a wide-open race this year with at least eight films in strong contention. The Kazakh Academy likes to send films that highlight national history or culture (2012, 2013, 2015, 2019) or ones that show how Kazakhs/Central Asians have been victimized by Russian/Soviet aggression (2016, 2017, 2018, 2020). They have traditionally shied away from films- like the acclaimed “Harmony Lessons” which was not sent- that show contemporary social problems. This presents the Kazakhs with a dilemma as the two films that won awards in Berlin- grim domestic violence drama “Happiness” (Panorama Audience Award) and “Scheme” (14+), about adolescent angst about the upper classes- are totally about contemporary social problems. They have two biopics about national poets- “Poet” (Berlin) and “Mukagali (Tallinn Black Nights)- that are more in line with what Kazakhstan usually sends, but poetry is tough to translate and neither film has much buzz.  WWII drama “Summer of 1941” is "patriotic" but reviews haven’t been great. Super-prolific director Adilkhan Yerzhanov was selected for the first time last year, which will probably make it harder for him to be selected a second time for either of his two new black comedies, “Assault” (Rotterdam) or “Herd Immunity” (Nika nomination). Lastly, there’s “Zere”, a quiet village drama about a widow trying to pay off her husband’s debts, after his unexpected death. I’ve been a big fan of Farkhat Sharipov since his brilliant “Tale of a Pink Hare” so I’m predicting “Scheme”, which is a far less grim look at Kazakh society than “Happiness”. I have "Poet" in second place, “Zere” in third, “Happiness” in fourth and "Mukagali" in fifth. 

 KOREA- “Decision to Leave" WRITTEN BEFORE KOREA'S OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT Korea quietly announced a shortlist with seven films on July 19th- “Broker”, “Contorted”, “Decision to Leave”, “Emergency Declaration”, “Hansan: Rising Dragon”, “Hommage” and “Yeonryeon”. Let’s do this backwards:

7^th place- “Yeonryeon”. No information online. Film has no digital footprint. 

6^th place- “Contorted”. Genre bias. Korea is unlikely to choose a horror movie. 

5^th place- “Hommage” An obscure film about the travails of female filmmakers…but the film has no buzz and the Korean Academy has never chosen a film by a female director. 

4^th place- “Broker”. It’s true that good reviews and a Best Actor win at Cannes for Korean megastar Song Kang-ho (“Parasite”) will help…but there is no way that nationalist Korea will pick a movie by a Japanese director, even if that director is Oscar nominee Hirokazu Koreeda. 

3^rd place- “Emergency Declaration” is a well-received action movie…but no one seems to think that it’s more than that. 

2^nd place- “Hansan: Rising Dragon” is a big-budget historical drama that has dominated the Korean box office…but it’s also a sequel (actually a prequel) to a film AMPAS members won’t have seen (I’ve seen the first one….production values are excellent but it was a nationalistic mess). 

That means there is a 90% chance that “Decision to Leave” by the brilliant Park Chan-wook will get this. Even if the competition wasn’t weak (and it is), “Decision to Leave” won Best Director at Cannes, has a recognizable star (Tang Wei, “Lust Caution”) and excellent reviews. Even if Korea has ignored him before (“Oldboy” was defeated by Korean war drama “Taegukgi”; “The Handmaiden” was defeated by the quickly forgotten spy movie “Age of Shadows”), “Parasite” has made them realize they can win….They won’t ignore Park this year. UPDATE: "Decision to Leave" was officially selected on August 11. 

 KYRGYZSTAN- “1000 Dreams” Kyrgyzstan is usually one of my favorite countries in this competition but they don’t have much this year. The only film I know about is a surreal B&W drama called  “1000 Dreams” (Tallinn Black Nights) whose trailer looks confusing to say the least.

 LAOS- Nothing Laos sent a horror movie in 2017 but even though they’ve had some well received films at festivals since then, they haven’t sent anything else. As far as I know, they got slowed down by the pandemic and haven’t made a feature film since “Goodbye Mister Wong” which premiered in France in December 2021…making it eligible this year.

 MALAYSIA- “Imaginur” Malaysia has sent seven films intermittently since 2004, covering virtually every genre- two dramas, a documentary, a horror movie, an action movie, a comedy, and a genre-defying fantasy period piece. I’m predicting a surprise win for “Imaginur”, a quirky fantasy drama that premiered at the New York Asian Film Festival, about a man whose life and memory begin to play tricks on him. On paper, it's probably more likely they would choose upcoming Locarno violent sci-fi flick “The Stone Turtle” or nationalist action epic “Mat Kilau” about Malays fighting British colonialist rule. But I'm sticking with "Imaginur". Less likely: “Tiga Janda Melawan Dunia”, a comedy about a bunch of older ladies who accidentally get themselves involved in a drug war....It's probably too silly but it has gotten strong reviews. 

 MONGOLIA- “Bliss Bringer” Mongolia skipped last year which is a shame because they had a number of interesting films to choose from. I blame COVID. If they decide to return this year, I’m pretty sure it will be either “Bliss Bringer”, a drama about two “frenemy” nomadic tribes who come together once a year to celebrate Mongolian New Year, or “The Sales Girl”, a black comedy about a young woman who takes a job at a sex shop in the capital, Ulaanbaatar. “Sales Girl” represented Mongolia at Cannes Film Market and Asian festivals in Osaka and New York, but every single one of Mongolia’s submissions thus far has focused on Mongolia’s rural cultural traditions, so I’m picking “Bliss”.

 NEPAL- “Tulkee” Nepal submitted movies every year from 2013-2019 but they have been absent since the pandemic (they did call for submissions in both 2020 and 2021, so they haven’t lost interest). This year, I expect they will send either “Tulkee”, about a young bride who is forced to marry her husband’s two brothers per village tradition, or “Prakash” an inspiring “feel-good” movie about a poor village boy who wants to become a schoolteacher. My original pick, “Crushed Wings”, about female genital mutilation, appears to be entirely in English. Nepal likes “issue movies” so my money is on “Tulkee”. 

 NEW ZEALAND- “Nude Tuesday”

So, this year's big eligibility question is likely to come from English-speaking New Zealand. The raucous nudist comedy co-starring Jemaine Clement (“Flight of the Conchords”) is in an invented “gibberish” language spoken by its entire cast. AMPAS rules simply say the film has to be mostly in “a language other than English”….which this film is….So it’s my professional opinion that it’s eligible. For the record, “Nude Tuesday” is a comedy about a middle-aged married couple who end up on a nudist retreat to save their marriage. Four of NZ’s six Oscar submissions have been stories in the indigenous Pacific languages of Maori and Samoan. This year, New Zealand has “Whina”, a Maori biopic, and “We Are Still Here”, an omnibus film by four Australian and four New Zealand directors, that could easily represent either country. But “Whina” might have too much English. Or, New Zealand, which has skipped the past three years, may just opt out again.

 PAKISTAN- “Joyland” Pakistan took the year off last year due to cinema closures but they’ll definitely be back this year with one of two critically acclaimed films- Cannes darling “Joyland” (where it won two awards) and “Kamli”, widely held to be the best Pakistani film of the year. This will be rough. “Kamli” director Sarmad Sultan Khoosat was selected in 2020 for the brilliant, controversial “Circus of Life”…. It's a melodrama about a woman whose husband has been missing for eight years and would probably be the more popular choice in Pakistan. But I think the Cannes victory of “Joyland” (which was widely hailed as a victory for Pakistan's struggling cinema) will be too much to overcome. Interestingly enough, the film is about a romance between a wealthy man and a transgender dancer. It won the Queer Palm so you can add Pakistan to the list of countries (Georgia, Morocco) whose frontrunner may be stymied by homophobia. But trans issues in Pakistan are far less controversial than LGB issues, and the Pakistani Academy has shown itself to be far more progressive than the country it represents. But if the trans themes do make them queasy, "Kamli" would be a fitting substitute. Dark horse: the hotly anticipated action thriller “The Legend of Maula Jatt” is a modern remake of a beloved series of shlocky 70s films.

 PHILIPPINES- “Whether the Weather is Fine”- In 2005, the Film Academy of the Philippines sparked a backlash from the local film community after they failed to send a film claiming they thought they weren’t invited (AMPAS confirmed they were). Last year, they said they couldn’t participate because of the pandemic. Once again, the film community angrily pointed out that several films, including “On the Job 2” (Venice 2021), were in fact eligible. This year, they’ll probably be back and it’s a fairly wide open race. I see the five evenly matched frontrunners as (alphabetically) “The Baseball Player” (Winner, Cinemalaya 2022), about former child soldiers dreaming of becoming champion baseball players in a war-torn southern region,  “Big Night” (Winner, Metro Manila 2021), a very dark comedy about a young man trying to get his name of a government “blacklist” that is likely to get him killed, “Blue Room” (Jury Prize, Cinemalaya 2022), a moral dilemma drama about a bunch of privileged teens caught with drugs by corrupt police, “Leonor Will Never Die” (Sundance), a surreal comedy-drama about an elderly woman director who dreams of being an action hero, and “Whether the Weather is Fine” (Locarno 2021, Jury Prize, Metro Manila 2021), about the aftermath of a typhoon. Release dates are very confusing; I can’t confirm that any of them got a qualifying release. If they’re all eligible, I think “Leonor” or “Weather” will be picked because of their international exposure, although “Big Night” has the best reviews and is directed by Jun Lana, who deserved an Oscar nod for “Bwakaw” ten years ago. “Whether the Weather is Fine” looks like what the Philippines usually sends- namely, a long-winded arthouse film- though I have no desire to see it. I predict “Leonor” will come second, “Big Night” in third, “Baseball Player” in fourth, and “Blue Room” in fifth. I hope they’ll go with one of the two dark comedies. Unlikely but possible: Auteurs Brillante Mendoza (“Virgin Forest”) and Lav Diaz (“History ni Ha” and “When the Waves are Gone”) have new films but I don’t think they’ll contend this year; there’s also medical thriller “Nelia”, abortion drama “12 Weeks”, and revenge thriller “Kargo”.

 SINGAPORE- “24” Singapore has had such a weak film year that I wonder whether they’ll even bother to enter this year. They’ve got three local Chinese comedies and some controversial anti-establishment docs that would never be selected. I'm guessing they’ll go with the experimental “24” (Busan) by Royston Tan, one of the island’s best-known directors. It’s some sort of weird movie about a dead sound engineer who comes back to life and visits different locations with his equipment. If it's just too strange, they send comedy “Reunion Dinner” or drop out.  

 SRI LANKA- “The Dawning of the Day” Sri Lanka is falling apart. The president fled the country on July 13, the economy is in tatters and, anyway, they haven’t sent a movie to the Oscars since 2009. They won’t send a film but if they did, the only real contender would be “The Dawning of the Day” (Tokyo) a fictionalization of the life of poet Pablo Neruda who served as Spanish ambassador to Sri Lanka and whose writings reveal possible evidence of a history of sexual  assault.  

 TAIWAN- On August 15th, Taiwan became the first country in Asia to make their Oscar selection- horror-drama “Goddamned Asura”- before I had a chance to make my predictions. 

 TAJIKISTAN- “The Water Boy” Tajikistan sent two films to the Oscars but they’ve been absent since 2005…longer than any country in this region. I think “The Water Boy”, a drama about a group of filmmakers who come to make a movie in a tiny village, was released too early, but I can’t find any evidence of any features produced more recently.

 THAILAND- “One For the Road” Thailand produces some of the craziest, most bonkers submissions year after year, including last year’s “The Medium” which I loved and AMPAS surely hated. Last year, I predicted “One for the Road” (Sundance 2021) which didn’t premiere in Thailand until February 2022. This road movie about two friends who go on a final trip after one friend is diagnosed with terminal cancer has gotten very good reviews (winning the Special Jury Prize at Sundance) and is likely to tug at all the right heartstrings. Director Nattawut “Baz” Poonpiriya was selected once before for a crazy violent horror movie (“Countdown”) and came close with critically acclaimed heist comedy “Bad Genius”, so he’s well-liked and also due. It helps that Thailand doesn’t have too many other options. It’s main competition comes from “Anatomy of Time”, a pretentious arthouse film that played in Venice (Thailand picked films like this in 2017/2018). Tom Waller (also overdue) has “Cave Rescue”, about the famous 2018 rescue of the Thai schoolboys, but reviews aren’t nearly as good as “One for the Road”. “Fast and Feel Love” has good reviews but it’s probably a bit too light and silly. “One for the Road” is probably safe and will be one of the submissions I most want to see this year.

 UZBEKISTAN- “Captivity” (Tutqunlik) There’s not much information about the Uzbek film industry online. They had a pavilion this year at Cannes, but it seems to have been primarily a way of promoting Uzbekistan as a filming destination for period epics (I was there on vacation last year; it’s a beautiful location!). Most of their films are fairly basic efforts. There was an Uzbek/Russian-language film about Uzbek migrants living in Moscow at Berlinale 2022 (“Convenience Store”) but I don’t think it would meet the nationality requirements. For lack of other options, I’m predicting “Captivity”, a state-sponsored film about trying to reform Uzbeks returning from jihadist crusades in the Middle East…but that would be an odd choice to represent the secular-minded country.  

 VIETNAM- “The Brilliant Darkness” Vietnam has been submitting every year since 2015 and, unlike most countries, the majority of their submitted films have been locally popular films. So, I expect they’ll send popular family thriller “The Brilliant Darkness” (Đêm Tối Rực Rỡ!), about a large family who assembles for their grandfather’s funeral, and learns that a violent mafia gang is on their way to collect a large debt none of them knew about. It’s been compared to a Vietnamese “Parasite” or “Knives Out”. One hiccup- the director is a Vietnam-based American. Other options: action revenge movie “578” sounds like their previous submission “Furie” or, if they want to go the festival route, “Memoryland”, a “Magnolia”-style drama with a flurry of stories revolving around death and mortality. It played in Berlin and Busan.  

POSSIBLE DEBUTS:

It's highly doubtful that any new Asian countries will debut this year, but the most likely would be LGBT drama "What Happened to the Wolf" from BURMA (MYANMAR). The filmmakers are opposed to the brutal military government so the film can't screen in Burma, so the Burmese would have to form a committee in exile (which Syria did in 2017). TURKMENISTAN, the only former Soviet republic never to enter a film, previously banned domestic cinema but all that's changed, and they have a fairly big-budget costume drama "Çapar" this year. Tiny MACAU has "Madalena". NORTH KOREA has Korean War romance "The Day the Mountain Cried", but the idea of them entering the Oscars is pretty much impossible.