2014 WINNER- DENMARK

I'm writing this Post roughly nine hours before the Oscar ceremony, which will take place at 10am on Monday here in South Korea. I finally got a hold of "The Broken Circle Breakdown", the Belgian submission and the only foreign film that I had a hard time seeing at Oscar season.

This is the first year in a long time where I really have no idea who is going to win the Oscar. Most years, the winner is obvious either to me ("Okuribito", "The Secret In Their Eyes"), or indeed to the entire world ("Amour", "A Separation").

This year is wide-open. Here are my final predictions:

DENMARK- "The Hunt" (40%)
ITALY- "The Great Beauty" (30%)
BELGIUM- "Broken Circle Breakdown" (15%)
PALESTINE- "Omar" (13%)
CAMBODIA- "The Missing Picture" (2%)

If you're interested, let's take a brief look at the five candidates (in alphabetical order)

BELGIUM, THE CEREBRAL CHOICE- "The Broken Circle Breakdown" shifts timelines so often that is impossible not to be confused. It's only when things start to pieced together that you realize there's a method to the director's madness. This challenging film takes on cancer, mortality, religion, American foreign policy, sex and a wonderful bluegrass soundtrack....but it's easy to see some people getting lost along the way.

CAMBODIA, THE SENTIMENTAL CHOICE- Cambodia's documentary is "The Missing Picture" is heart-wrenching look at the Khmer Rouge genocide from the point of view of a survivor. Rithy Panh, Cambodia's first-ever Oscar nominee, escaped from a concentration camp as a teenager and made this film about his family....none of whom survived. No story at the Oscar has a better backstory than this Cannes "Un Certain Regard" winner.

DENMARK, THE CRITIC'S CHOICE- Denmark's "The Hunt", about how a series of false accusations of child abuse ruin the life of a teacher living in a small town, probably has the best reviews of the five films. This ethical dream is a perfect combination of arthouse subject matter and yet manages to mainstream in its tale of a normal man's life spinning out of control.

ITALY, THE FAVORITE- Italy's "The Great Beauty" went home empty-handed at Cannes 2013....but with enough buzz to last the whole year. This ode to Rome and Federico Fellini has defied all of my expectations by winning the two major pre-cursors (the Golden Globes and BAFTA) as well as a host of other Best Foreign Film awards in the USA despite being...well...in my opinion...long and verbose.

PALESTINE, THE EXCITING CHOICE- If you were to remake these five films, set them all in America in English with a major star, Belgium, Cambodia and Italy would still be 100% arthouse. Denmark might make a few more bucks at the box-office but Hany Abu-Assad's dynamic, twisty thriller "Omar" would be able to be a major hit. It's clearly the most exciting choice that Oscar voters could make, though the record in this category usually shies away from "exciting" films.

So who's going to win?

First off, documentaries are a tough sell in this category and CAMBODIA's "The Missing Picture", which relies mostly on narration (since, as the title implies, visual images of the Khmer Genocide are largely "missing").....It's a tough watch. PALESTINE's "Omar" is my favorite of the five films and it highlights important political perspectives that we rarely get to hear about in the United States....but this isn't the usual kind of movie that wins an Oscar.

The rules were tweaked this year so that voters don't have to prove they saw all five films (though they are asked not to vote if they haven't seen all five). This strongly gives an edge to "The Great Beauty" for two reasons....Number one, it was the most widely released of the five....A lot of people have been able to see it in the theatre (Note: AMPAS did sent out DVD screeners to members of all five films). To a lesser extent, this rule benefits "The Hunt", which also got a decent US release in LA, New York and elsewhere. "The Broken Circle Breakdown" doesn't make sense if you just watch the beginning of the film and "The Missing Picture" and "Omar" take awhile to hit their stride. "The Great Beauty" starts off with a bang.....(although in my opinion, it goes downhill in the second half when it strays into David Lynch territory).

So, it comes down to "The Hunt" and "The Great Beauty"....It's going to be close....More critics love "The Great Beauty" than I expected but I expect the more relatable "The Hunt" (like "The Secret in Their Eyes" to meet the more arty spectacle of "Beauty" (this year's "White Ribbon".)

Other Predictions:
Best Picture- "12 Years A Slave" (seen 8 out of 9)
Best Actor- Chiwetel Ejiofor (seen all)
Best Actress- Cate Blanchett (seen all)
Best Supporting Actor- Jared Leto (seen 4 of 5)
Best Supporting Actress- Lupita Nyongo (seen all)
Best Director- Alfonso Cuaron (seen all)
Best Animated Film- The Wind Rises (yes, over "Frozen")
Short Film- Just Before Losing Everything (ironically, the only one I haven't seen)

May the best films win!
 

Final Foreign Oscar Predictions

Damn.....I only got 2 out of 9 (Front-runner DENMARK plus BELGIUM).....That's certainly the worst I've ever done since I started predicting nominees in this category....I should have just used my "Alternate 9"....5 of the eventual shortlisted films- Bosnia, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy and Palestine- were on that list.

I saw "The Great Beauty", "The Hunt", "The Missing Picture" and "Omar".....I'll see "The Grandmaster" later this month.

A few notes....
1. The Elite Committee voted with their hearts....They got a lot of flak for not choosing front-runner "The Past", but they selected three films they thought were more deserving....They don't announce which three they chose, but presumably, this was good news for Cambodia's "The Missing Picture" and Hungary's "The Notebook".
2. Germany gets to advance even when nobody particularly likes their film.
3. So far, I've seen 20 of the 76 films, including four of the films on the shortlist. By far, the best films were CHILE's "Gloria" and NETHERLANDS' "Borgman". Once again, these excellent films were ignored, which is why I try to see all the movies on the list. You're sure to find five films that are better than all the nominees.
4. This year, it's harder to choose the Top Five than usual. I think there's only one film that is sure to make the Top Five (Denmark) and only one who is sure to be left out (Hungary). Everyone else is in with a chance....But here's what I think is going to happen.

TOP TIER:
1. DENMARK- "The Hunt"
2. BELGIUM- "The Broken Circle Breakdown"
3. GERMANY- "Two Lives"

Okay, so we all know that "The Hunt" is going to be nominated, and in all likelihood it will take home the fourth-ever Oscar for DENMARK....a feat only ever achieved by France, Italy, and Spain plus Japan (thanks to 3 Honorary Awards prior to the official inauguration of this category in 1956). "The Hunt" is a very good film- a drama about a man whose life is slowly destroyed by untrue allegations of child abuse- which is engaging, original and still mainstream.

I'm also feeling confident about the chances of BELGIUM's Dutch-language "The Broken Circle Breakdown". I haven't seen it yet, but word-of-mouth says this drama with a great bluegrass soundtrack is challenging and cerebral. I worried about it getting through the first round, but it should be appreciated by the Finalist Committee. As for GERMANY and "Two Lives", the Germans have shown time and time again that if they choose a solid, historical drama- even one that nobody particularly loves- they can get a nomination time after time (last year's "Barbara" was an exception, but the film was average and competition fierce).

MIDDLE TIER:
4. HONG KONG- "The Grandmaster"
5. PALESTINE- "Omar"
6. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- "An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker"

For the middle tier, consider the pluses and minuses:

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, "An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker"

PLUSES: The return to form of Oscar-winning director Danis Tanovic ("No Man's Land"). A relatable and relevant true story about a poor family struggling to pay for medical treatment. An film festival favorite this year.

MINUSES: Made on a shoestring budget with non-professional actors. Oscar has repeatedly shown that they don't like "gritty" Eastern European dramas (just ask Romania).

HONG KONG, "The Grandmaster"
PLUSES: The film looks absolutely stunning and is a contender in a number of other Oscar categories (especially Cinematography and Art Direction). Well-known director (Wong Kar-wai). Wong re-edited a special version of the film especially to be relatable to American audiences. Backing of the Weinstein Brothers.
MINUSES: Oscar hasn't gone for a martial arts film in over a decade. Some critics don't like the re-edited, streamlined version.

PALESTINE- "Omar"
PLUSES: It's a fast-paced and exciting thriller with endless twists, made by an Oscar-nominated director (Hany Abu-Assad) and starring a handsome newcomer lead.
MINUSES: The film has a virulently anti-Israel political slant....Will that turn off some voters? (it didn't with "Paradise Now", and "Omar" is a more exciting film).

Verdict: I think the gorgeous visuals and high-profile backing of "The Grandmaster" will beat out the cheap realism of "Iron Picker". They're all in with a very good chance!

BOTTOM TIER:

7. ITALY- "The Great Beauty"

8. CAMBODIA- "The Missing Picture"

9. HUNGARY- "The Notebook"

 

The subject matter of HUNGARY's "The Notebook" makes it sound like a real winner....World War II! Small children!! Nazis!!! However, reviews have been mediocre, with many criticizing excessive voiceovers and others turned off by the two masochistic young boys trying to desensitive themselves to violence. I don't think there's much chance of making it to the next round.

Many people are predicting ITALY's glossy "The Great Beauty" as a finalist for sure, but I'm predicting it gets cuts in this round. I know it just won the Golden Globe, but I think the arty, verbose and Felliniesque treatise on aging and "beautiful people" in Rome is better suited to the largely European critics of the HFPA. "Beauty" is in with a shot, but it's not really a mainstream film.

No one could possibly root against CAMBODIA and their stirring French-language documentary "The Missing Picture". During the Khmer Rouge genocide, one-fourth of Cambodia's population was murdered in labor camps, and the country's film archives were largely destroyed. Director Rithy Panh was a teenager when he was deported to a camp with his family, who all perished. This documentary tries to tells their story while acknowledging, replacing "the missing pictures" with lovingly carved clay figurines. It's an exceptionally important film and an Oscar nomination would mean so much for the domestic film industry. Working against it, "Picture" didn't even make the Top 20 on the Best Documentary longlist, and I actually preferred Panh's earlier documentary "S21".
 

FOREIGN OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2014- Western Europe (19 Films)

I think the final shortlist will be announced later this week so I'm publishing the Western Europeans only half-finished.....I'll do my list of final predictions tomorrow and try to fill in the rest of this chart later on.

If there's any justice, "Borgman" (Netherlands) will be nominated. It's probably the best film I saw this year. I hope the elite committee will "save" it, but I'm pessimistic about its chances. Great filmmaking is simply not enough to win an Oscar with these voters.

HELL NO:
19. GREECE- "Boy Eating the Bird's Food"

18. ESTONIA- "Free Range"

 

Better luck next year for these two countries from the periphery of Western Europe....Both "Boy Eating the Bird's Food" from GREECE and "Free Range" from ESTONIA are surreal, borderline-experimental films...definitely not what Oscar goes for. On top of that, neither film is supposed to be very good. Reviews for "Bird's Food" (which did win Best Greek Film at Thessaloniki and the Hellenic Film Awards), about a 20-year old so hungry from the economic crisis that he resorts to eating both his bird's food and his own semen (sure to disturb the Oscar committee), have been weak outside of Greece. "Free Range", by surrealist (and weird) director Veiko Ounpuu is some kind of nonsense about a man whose life falls apart after he writes a film review of "The Tree of Life". Forget it.

NO CHANCE:
17. SWEDEN- "Eat Sleep Die"
16. NORWAY- "I Am Yours"
15. AUSTRIA- "The Wall"
14. PORTUGAL- "Lines of Wellington"

SWEDEN and NORWAY have both selected debut features by female directors, about Muslim immigrants to Scandinavia. "Eat Sleep Die" won Best Picture at last year's Guldbagge Awards for its story of a Bosniak girl who loses her job. This minimalist, realist, hand-held film has gotten mixed reviews. It's supposed to be an average, yet not particularly involving film. "I Am Yours", about a Pakistani-Norwegian divorcee spurned by her traditional family for her cavalier attitude towards family and relationships. Once again, reviews have simply not been strong enough to compete here.

AUSTRIA's "The Wall" is an adaptation of "unfilmable" novel "Die Wand". It's the story of a 30-something woman in Austria who goes on a weekend vacation with friends to a rural mountain lodge. While her friends are away in town, a mysterious force field descends upon the area, trapping her (along with some animals) in an area perhaps a few square miles (?) with a host of animals. All life outside "the wall" appears to be frozen in time, and (presumably) dead. The problem is that the novel really is "unfilmable". Much of the action is narrated by talented actress Martina Gedrick but her struggle to survive by working the land, while realistic, is not exciting (though the conclusion is riveting). Set in 1810, PORTUGAL's historical drama "Lines of Wellington" is a dusty, overlong historical drama- typical of Portuguese Oscar submissions. "Wellington" may look pretty but its many characters and obscure history (a conflict between France and combined UK-Portugal forces) will doom it to failure, like all of Portugal's previous submissions.

Lots of interesting ideas here, but no chance at an Oscar.

UNLIKELY:

13. SWITZERLAND- "More Than Honey"

12. FRANCE- "Renoir"

11. UNITED KINGDOM- "Metro Manila"

10. TURKEY- "Butterfly's Dream"

All four of these films have their pluses and minuses, but lack the gravitas to make the next round.

FRANCE is usually a front-runner and biopic "Renoir" is a sumptuous period drama about the last days of the acclaimed painter, and his relationship with his son (the soon-to-be great director Jean Renoir) and his artistic muse (a teenaged nude model) in the countryside during WWI. It's all very pretty, but it's also extremely boring. Although it has its admirers, too many people fall asleep for France to get nominated this year. Across the Channel, the UNITED KINGDOM has sent a Tagalog-language film made in the Philippines. An impoverished rural family emigrates to the city to seek a better life, but the family unwittingly becomes involved in crime and official corruption. This gritty, low-budget effort is said to be solid, but "gritty" rarely succeeds here.

SWITZERLAND has selected a documentary, which never bodes well with Oscar. While true that "Waltz with Bashir" and "Pina" did advance to the next round, these were not straightforward documentary films (I disliked both). "More Than Honey" is a technologically impressive documentary- seeing the bees work, dance and fly so close-up is eye-opening. It's about the declining numbers of honeybees, and the potentially devastating impact on global food production if they stop pollinating flowers and crops. However, I think the documentary format will work against it; some may think it should run in the Documentary category instead. And there's the obscure film from TURKEY- "The Butterfly's Dream". It's a period drama about two Turkish poets (both ill with tuberculosis) trying to woo the same girl through poetry (contrary to some reports on the Internet, it is NOT a gay story about two poets in love with each other). Though popular in Turkey, the film has not been widely seen internationally. The trailer looks gorgeous- like a Spanish or Italian festival film, but I imagine that two-hours-plus of subtitled poetry is not likely to translate well.

DARK HORSES:

9. LUXEMBOURG- "Blind Spot"

8. SPAIN- "15 Years And a Day"

7. ICELAND- "Of Horses and Men"

LUXEMBOURG and SPAIN have chosen pretty standard genre pics. The tiny Grand Duchy has entered the race for the first time in four years with local hit "Blind Spot", a police mystery-thriller (aka un policier) about a closeted gay cop (from the country which now has the world's first openly gay male Prime Minister) trying to solve his brother's murder. It's all very good (you can watch it on iTunes) and filled with twists, but in the United States, it would be a standard hit policier  and not an Oscar nominee. The Spaniards have likewise chosen a cookie-cutter "coming-of-age-drama" about a boy sent to live with his grandfather after causing trouble at school. Reviews haven't been great...most say the script is weak and a bit clichéd....But this is the sort of film that the Large Committee has gone before. They love kids + old people....Still, with 76 films, I don't hold out much hope.

As for ICELAND, they've gone more original. It's the story of a small Icelandic town that relies on horse breeding. It's a quirky, tragicomic film, with stories partially told from the point of view of horses. Critics praise the filmmaking (the horse "actors" are particularly praised) but it's definitely an oddball film. It may place well in the rankings, but probably won't net Iceland a shortlist spot for the second year in a row. Still, definitely I will look for at Fests in 2014.

COMPETITIVE:

6. GERMANY- "Two Lives"
5. NETHERLANDS- "Borgman"
4. BELGIUM- "The Broken Circle Breakdown"

3. ITALY- "The Great Beauty" 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FRONT-RUNNERS:

2. FINLAND- "The Disciple"

1. DENMARK- "The Hunt"

I see these two Scandinavian dramas (both touching on child abuse) as the Western European front-runners. DENMARK's acclaimed child abuse drama "The Hunt" is close to a lock. It's probably the best-reviewed Western European film of the year (certainly the best-reviewed of this mixed lot). Over the past year and a half (it debuted at Cannes 2012), it's gotten a solid reputation on the film festival circuit, and it's exactly the sort of film Oscar goes for (a morality tale). This drama about a lie about child abuse that turns a man's life upside down is (along with "The Past") one of the two front-runners to win the Oscar next year.

FINLAND is much more a gamble. Unlike much-loved Denmark, the Finns have only been nominated once before (for the undeserving "Man Without A Past"). "The Disciple" is a Swedish-language family drama about a domineering father living with his wife, son and young daughter at a remote lighthouse station. He begrudgingly agrees to briefly house an teenage apprentice. The two boys strike up a friendship and the tyrant of a father begins to favor the apprentice over his own son. Although the film hasn't been as strongly reviewed as, say, "The Great Beauty", it is universally said to be a well-photographer, solid story. Some people love it, others like it. It should receive solid scores across the board, making it a big possibility with the big committee. If it can't make The Top Six however, it likely will fail with the elite committee, looking for more arty/acclaimed works.

Now, the statistics:

Number of Foreign Languages Represented: 15. Three films are in German (Austria, Germany and Switzerland), two are in Dutch (Belgium, Netherlands) and two are in Swedish (Finland, Sweden). There’s one each in Danish, Estonian, French, Greek, Icelandic, Italian, Luxembourgish, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish, Tagalog (UK) and Turkish.  The Portuguese submission is an unusual mishmash of languages.

Highest profile film: Denmark's “The Hunt” which has been doing the film festival circuit since Cannes 2012.  

Number of Western European countries participating this year: 19, including Estonia and Turkey.  

Number of countries that have participated in the past: 21.  

Number of countries opting out: Only Greenland and Ireland, which did not have any foreign-language fiction feature films eligible.

Number of countries with a realistic chance at making the shortlist: A weak field this year...Maybe five.

Number of countries I predicted correctly: I got six......Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal and- big surprise- also the UK. I came close with Finland, and probably would have gotten France but I skipped them this year.  

Films I'm most looking forward to seeing: I've seen the films from Austria (B-), France (C), Luxembourg (B), Netherlands (A+) and Switzerland (B+). I'm most excited to frontrunner “The Hunt" from Denmark. I have the DVD and will watch before Christmas.

Feature Debuts: 6 films are feature debuts (Austria, Greece, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden).  

Number of Comedies: I would say none, although the Netherlands and Sweden are described by some as black comedies.  

Number of Animated Films, Documentaries or Horror Films: One documentary (Switzerland) and one sort-of-horror film (Netherlands).

Oscar History: Markus Imhoof of Switzerland was nominated for a Best Foreign Film Oscar way back in 1982 for "The Boat is Full" while Sean Ellis of the UK was nominated for Best Short Film in 2006 for "Cashback".

In addition to Imhoof (“The Boat is Full”, and also “Der Berg”), four other directors have been selected by their countries before: Veiko Õunpuu  (“The Temptation of St. Tony”, Estonia), Felix Van Groeningen (Belgium, “The Misfortunates”), Alex van Warmerdam (Netherlands, “The Northeners”) and Thomas Vinterberg (Denmark, “The Celebration”).

Every country has been nominated for an Oscar at least once except Estonia, Luxembourg, Portugal and Turkey.

Number of Female Directors: 5 out of 19- namely Ulrika Bengts (Finland), Iram Haq (Norway), Gabriele Pichler (Sweden) and Gracia Querejeta (Spain), plus Chilean-born widow Valeria Sarmiento (Portugal), who completed "Lines of Wellington" after her husband Raoul Ruiz died during pre-production.

Oldest and Youngest Directors: 72-year old Markus Imhoof of Switzerland is the oldest Western European candidate this year, while 33-year old debut director Gabriele Pichler is the youngest.

Familiar Faces: Portugal's all-star "Lines of Wellington" features a huge number of Eurocentric celebrities in supporting roles, including Almodovar muse Marisa Paredes  (Spain), Mathieu Amalric, Catherine Deneuve and Isabelle Huppert (France), Chiara Mastroianni and Vincent Perez (sort of France) plus American actor John Malkovich.

The most familiar face in a leading role this year is Danish superstar Mads Mikkelsen ("The Hunt"), known to arthouse audiences for Oscar nominees "A Royal Affair" and "After the Wedding", as well as to mainstream American audiences for "Casino Royale" and the "Hannibal" TV series. Runner-ups include 2-time Norwegian Oscar nominee Liv Ullmann who co-stars in the German submission "Two Lives", and Maribel Verdu, who I think plays the Mom in Spain's "15 Years and a Day".

Also: German actress Martina Gedrick is the one-woman star of "The Wall" and should be familiar to Foreign Oscar watchers due to her lead roles in "The Lives of Others" and "Der Baader Meinhof Komplex". "Two Lives" lead actress Juliane Kohler starred in Oscar winner "Nowhere in Africa". 88-year old Michel Bouquet plays the title role in "Renoir" and has been a prolific stage/screen actor since the 1960s. Ingvar Eggert Sigurdsson of Iceland co-stars in his seventh Oscar submission since 1996. American actor John Hurt narrates the English version of "More Than Honey" (though not the foreign-language version)

Controversies and Changes:  The biggest controversy was probably the decision by the producers of Cannes winner "Blue is the Warmest Color" not to release their film in French cinemas a few days earlier to compete for an Oscar. The producers claimed the release date rules were stupid. So was their decision to prevent "Blue" from repping France. In the past French producers have done a one-cinema qualifying release ("Joyeux Noel").

Omissions: I'd say the highest-profile omission was Francois Ozon's "In the House", from France. Also Austria's entire "Paradise" trilogy by Ulrich Seidl, especially sex tourism frontrunner "Paradise: Love"....Denmark's Indonesian-language documentary "The Act of Killing" (shortlisted for Best Documentary), Estonia's "A Lady in Paris" (starring Jeanne Moreau), Norway's big-budget thriller "Pioneer" (co-starring "American Beauty"'s Wes Bentley), Spain's bizarre love story "Cannibal" and Switzerland's mother-gay-son-dramedy "Rosie".

Last year's race: The Western Europeans hoggedsix of the nine spots on the shortlist last year (Austria, Denmark, France, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland). My favorite was “Les Intouchables” from France (A-, a fine film, even if it is a mainstream comedy) followed by the haunting“Blancanieves” (B+, Spain). I also saw eventual winner “Amour” (B), nominees “A Royal Affair” (B+) and “Kon-Tiki” (B), plus the films from Belgium (B+), Estonia (D), Germany (C+), Greece (B-), Iceland (B-), Sweden (B) and Switzerland (B-).

Next up: Final predictions for the 9-film shortlist