And here are my predictions for the countries from Africa and the Middle East:
1. Algeria- “The Last Queen” Two years ago, Algeria selected "Heliopolis" but changed their mind when the film's release date was changed.....They submitted the film the following year. I'm predicting the same thing happens this year. Although "The Last Queen" was on last year's Algerian shortlist, it finally premiered in Algeria in June 2023. It's a glossy historical drama about a 15th century princess negotiating political intrigue, and it's been billed as Algeria's first costume drama. If they don't consider that to be eligible, “Soula”, an indie film about the hardships of a single mother in conservative Algerian society, would be the most appropriate Algerian submission. It played in a special sidebar section at FESPACO (Africa’s most prestigious film festival) and got a domestic release in France.
2. Burkina Faso- “Sira” Director Apolline Traore was unsuccessful at negotiating the AMPAS bureaucracy when she tried to submit “Desrances” a few years ago. African arthouse power Burkina Faso hadn't sent a film since their debut in 1989 and the country did not have an approved committee at the time. Traore’s “Sira”, about a young woman who survives an Islamic terror attack, won the Best Film award at Berlin Panorama, so I’m really hoping they return.
3. Cameroon- “Half Heaven” Cameroon has sent films three years in a row now, making them one of only two countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to do so (the other is Kenya). Oddly enough, all three movies were made by filmmakers from the country’s Northwest Region, home to the country’s English-speaking minority. For that reason, I’m predicting “Half Heaven”, a Christian-themed drama by the director of “The Fisherman’s Diary”, which brought them back to the Oscars in 2020 after a 30-year absence. It has gotten screened in both the USA and regional powerhouse Nigeria. Like “Fisherman’s Diary”, it’s in a local dialect of English. “Mambar Pierrette”, a naturalistic look at the life of a young mother which played at Cannes Director’s Fortnight, or “Le spectre du Boko Haram”, a topical documentary from the French side, would probably be better choices.
6. Côte d'Ivoire- “Je reste photographe” Côte d'Ivoire hasn’t sent a film since they were shortlisted for “Night of the Kings” in 2020. They were represented at FESPACO by documentary “Je reste photographe”, a documentary about an artistic inheritance. But they probably won’t enter.
8. 8. Ethiopia- “Doka” Ethiopia has sent four films since 2010 but they’ve been busy with a civil war and absent since 2019. They make a lot of low-budget movies for local consumption but there’s nothing they are likely to send to the Oscars. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Doka”, about a nurse and a little girl who find themselves caught up in a violent conflict.
9. Asantewaa” Ghana’s “Ghollywood” film industry makes most of its films in English, while rival “Kumawood” makes movies in the local Akan/Twi language….However, Kumawood has been in decline, and I don’t see any strong contenders. But I’ll predict children’s animated film “Asantewaa- Battle for the Golden Stool”, which is in Twi and English. Ghana launches a call for submissions every year but has only sent a movie once, in 2019. Last year, GhanaWeb campaigned for the critically acclaimed “Borga”…but Ghana didn’t send it.
10. Iran- “Cause of Death: Unknown” Despite poor relations with the U.S., Iran has missed only two years since they joined the Oscar competition in 1994 (including a rather ridiculous public boycott over a YouTube video in 2012). I’m seriously confused as to what Iran will send this year, and a big part of me expects they may select a late release like last year that we may not have heard of yet. Last year, they selected the brilliant and underrated “World War III” which definitely would have been in my Top Five. And although it's true that Iran usually sends a wonderful film, their selection committee will limit their candidates to films that are politically acceptable and made by approved directors. So, the critically acclaimed “Terrestrial Verses” (Cannes), about people beaten down by the Islamic bureaucracy, is out of luck, as is “Beyond the Wall” (Venice) which hasn’t passed the censors. I’m going out on a limb and predicting “Cause of Death: Unknown”, a thriller about seven strangers on a minibus who decide to split a passenger’s money when he mysteriously dies on the journey. Two other strong possibilities: “Cinema Metropole” is an ode to cinema (like “Cinema Paradiso” or “Last Film Show”) that won Best Iranian Film at the Fajr Film Festival. But only two Fajr winners in the past 20 years have gone to the Oscars, so it’s not a strong precursor; “Empty Nets” (Karlovy Vary), about two young lovers forced to keep their relationship secret. Rounding out the Top Five Iranian options are “In the Arms of the Tree” about a married couple in crisis, and social drama “Leather Jacket Man”, about women plagued by drug addiction. Also possible: acclaimed Afghan migrant drama “Endless Borders” (Rotterdam), comedy “Fosil”, historical drama “Intoxicated By Love”, father-son drama “Scent of Wind”, and family drama “A Tale of Shermoon” (San Sebastian). In my opinion, this is the hardest country to predict in the group.
11. Iraq- “Hanging Gardens” Iraq has two distinct film industries, one in the Kurdish-speaking North and one in the Arabic-speaking south, and the Iraqi Academy tries to alternate between the two. This year it looks like a two-way race between Arabic “Hanging Gardens” (Venice 2022), about a rubbish picker who unexpectedly finds a sex doll in the trash, and Kurdish “The Rain Bride” (which swept the Kurdish Duhok Film Awards), about a wife who becomes a dancer when her husband goes off to war. “Hanging Gardens” has better reviews and the Venice pedigree….and they chose a Kurdish film last year. So that’s my pick. Dark horse: 3-hour documentary “Tales of the Purple House”.
12. Israel- “Delegation” "Seven Blessings" Israel automatically sends the winner of the Best Picture award at the Ophir Awards. So, before the Ophir nominations were announced, I predicted the five nominees would be "The Altman Method", "Delegation", "Matchmaking", "The Monkey House" and "Vanishing Soldier", with "The Other Widow" as my alternate. I only got one right, plus my alternate. I'd like to think the main reason for that is that almost all the Israeli finalists were films that hadn't yet been screened. The five finalists including "Vanishing Soldier" (11 nominations), about a soldier who goes AWOL but who is reported in the national media as a missing POW; it premiered at Locarno, and "The Other Widow" (9 nominations), a dark comedy about a mistress who goes to her lover's funeral....plus three unscreened movies- "Home" (9 nominations), a drama set in Israel's ultra-Orthodox community, "Running on Sand" (4 nominations), about an Eritrean refugee on an Israeli football team, and "Seven Blessings" (12 nominations), a comedy-drama about family secrets amongst a large Moroccan-Jewish family. Still pretty surprised at the absence of "Delegation"! So, what film will represent Israel? "Running on Sand" was a nominee out of left field and didn't get any other major nominations, while "Other Widow" missed the all-important Best Screenplay nomination- 8 out of the past 10 Ophir winners got nominations for Picture, Director and Screenplay. Nominated in almost every category, "Seven Blessings" appears to be the frontrunner...and it's also the nominee I most want to see. I have "Vanishing Soldier", which got positive reviews this month at Locarno, in second place and the complete unknown- "Home"- in third and "Other Widow" (which also looks charming) in fourth.
13. Jordan- “Inshallah A Boy” Jordan has started to submit more regularly and last year they had a brutally competitive race. But this year should be an easy choice. I’m certain they’ll send “Inshallah A Boy”, about a Jordanian widow who fakes a pregnancy to ensure she maintains control of her house and family. It won two minor awards in Cannes and has very good reviews.
14. Kenya- “Between the Rains” Kenya has a competitive two-way race between climate change documentary “Between the Rains”, which won Best Documentary at the 2023 Tribeca Film Festival, and “Shimoni”, which premiered in Toronto and represented the country at FESPACO. Documentaries are usually at a disadvantage but Kenya has picked one once before and “Rains” looks like it has slightly better reviews. So that’s my pick. Dark horses: upcoming thrillers “Zahma” and “Gaza”.
15. Kuwait- “How I Got There” Although they submitted two films in the 1970s, oil-rich Kuwait has been absent since 1978- longer than any other country. This year, they have a really fun possibility, namely “How I Got There”, a fast-paced action-crime-comedy-drama that has been compared to Guy Ritchie. It won the Audience Award at the Red Sea Film Festival in neighboring Saudi Arabia and co-stars Ron Perlman (!).
16. Lebanon- “Dirty, Difficult, Dangerous” “Dirty, Difficult, Dangerous”, a love story between two foreign migrants in Beirut (a Syrian man and Ethiopian woman) has been charming audiences since it premiered at Venice 2022, and it’s the best-reviewed Lebanese film of the year. The runner-up- and very possible- is French co-production “Mother Valley”, about a conservative Lebanese wife and mother who discovers feminism. If they want a film telling a more authentically Lebanese story, they could choose gritty thriller “Hardabasht”, drama “The Anger” or comedy “All Roads Lead to Rome”.
17. Lesotho- Nothing. Tiny Lesotho submitted a film by Berlin-based filmmaker Lemohang Jeremiah Mosese in 2020. Lesotho doesn’t really have a local film industry and they’ll likely wait until Mosese makes a new film before they consider submitting again.
18. Malawi- “Is the President Dead?” Malawi unexpectedly submitted two low-profile films in 2018 and again in 2021. This year, the only film that I know about is light political thriller “Is the President Dead?”….but it would appear to be ineligible because it’s in English.
19. Mauritania- “The Perfumed Hill” Mauritania deserved an Oscar when they submitted for the first and only time with “Timbuktu” in 2014….They made the Final Five before losing to the highly overrated “Ida”. Director Abderrahmane Sissako is Mauritania’s only international director and he is expected to premiere the long-delayed “The Perfumed Hill”, set mostly in China and currently in post-production, before the end of the year. If it premieres in time, that will likely be Mauritania’s second-ever submission.
20. Morocco- “Hounds” (Les meutes) Hot off making the shortlist for the second time last year, Morocco has quite a few possibilities, including two films from Venice 2022 and three from Cannes 2023. My prediction is “Hounds”, a fast-paced thriller about a father-son duo trying to dispose of a dead body….It won the Cannes UCR Jury Prize and that’s a major accomplishment for a genre film and for Morocco. The Moroccan Academy likes crime dramas, and reviews have mostly been good. Two similarly themed road movies about low-level criminals- “Queens” (Venice; two women) and “Deserts” (Cannes; two men)- are also possible though I think “Hounds” has better reviews. “Deserts” is directed by Faouzi Bensaidi, who represented Morocco once before (and who has a second eligible film this year; comedy-drama “Days of Summer”). Morocco's two shortlisted films in the past were largely French so we can’t count out French co-production “A Summer in Boujad”, a coming-of-age drama about a 13-year old who moves from Paris to Morocco after the death of his mother. Some may predict documentary “Mother of All Lies” (Best Director, Cannes UCR) and “The Damned Don’t Cry” (Venice) but I think the former is too subversive and the second too queer (conservative Morocco isn’t going to pick Queer movies two years in a row).
21. Mozambique- “O Ancoradouro do Tempo” Mozambique submitted a film once in 2017- and quite a good one too…..After being absent five years in a row, they’d have to request AMPAS to re-approve a selection committee and I doubt they’ll do that. If they do submit, it will probably be the upcoming “O Ancoradouro do Tempo” (The Anchor of Time), a romance-cum-mystery based on the novel “Under the Frangipani”, about a murder at a Portuguese fort in which various suspects all confess to having committed the crime.
22. Niger- “La fille noire du president” Niger submitted a film once in 2018 and they actually have two new films out this year. If they enter, it will surely be “La fille noire du president”, a light drama about an African president whose daughter is the black sheep of the family. It’s directed by one of Niger’s senior national directors, who is now in his 80s. Niger, whose democratic government was overthrown by a coup last month, also has short film “The Envoy of God”, which won a number of prizes at FESPACO, but it’s too short (23 minutes) to compete here.
23. Nigeria- “Mami Wata” Although many of Nigeria’s films are made in English, Nigeria announced an Oscar shortlist of three very interesting films in Yoruba last year. Two of them (“Anikulapo” and “Elesin Oba”) got Netflix distribution deals. One (“Elesin Oba”) premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Nigeria’s selection committee met and decided to send none of them to the Oscars. The Nigerian film industry (quite rightfully) complained. The committee met again and decided to say "fuck you" to their filmmaker colleagues and once again voted to send nothing to the Oscars. So, the committee clearly doesn’t care about supporting Nigerian film; they’ve only sent two films since they were recognized by AMPAS in 2014 (and one of those two was disqualified). If Nigeria does enter, I suspect it will be “Mami Wata”, a B&W drama in Pidgin English and Fon, that screened at Sundance and FESPACO, winning Best Cinematography at both festivals. It’s a mythological drama about three women and a village that worships a mermaid goddess. Of course it probably should be Teddy-award winning “All the Colours of the World are Between Black & White” but homophobic Nigeria would never select an LGBT-themed film.
24. Palestine- “Alam” I imagine most people will be predicting “A Gaza Weekend”, the breezy Palestinian pandemic comedy that marks the feature debut of Oscar-nominated Short Film director Basil Khalil and which won the FIPRESCI Award at Toronto. Unfortunately, the multi-lingual comedy looks like it’s mostly in English, which will open the door wide open for “Alam”, winner of Cairo 2022, a coming-of-age drama about the identity crises of a Palestinian teen who holds Israeli citizenship.
25. Saudi Arabia- “Within Sand” Winner of the Jury Prize at the country’s Red Sea Film Festival, “Within Sand” is a survival drama set in the early 20th century about a young man abandoned in the desert and left to die by a gang of thieves. However, we can’t entirely count out upcoming camel racing drama “Hajjan” (see Egypt) by the Egyptian director of “Yomeddine”. Also possible: Netflix films “Alkhallat+” and "Head to Head" (their past two submissions got Netflix deals) and “Norah”, about a village woman on an unexpected journey.
26. Senegal- “Banel & Adama” Senegal has become the first country in West Africa to submit on a fairly regular basis; they’ve sent films four out of six years since their 2017 debut, making the shortlist twice. The fact that “Banel & Adama”, about two young lovers whose village disapproves of their relationship, premiered in the Main Competition at Cannes 2023 means that it’s a shoo-in to represent Senegal, although “A Tooth for a Tooth” (FESPACO) would have had a good shot in any other year.
27. Somalia- “Ayaanle” Somalia submitted the delightful “Gravedigger’s Wife” in 2021. IMDB claims a sequel is in pre-production but that certainly won’t be ready in time. I’m pretty sure Somalia will sit this year out, but they could send “Ayaanle”, a Kenya co-production though I suspect it was released too early to qualify.
28. South Africa- “Valley of a Thousand Hills” South Africa quietly skipped last year, seemingly because they didn’t have any strong contenders that weren't in English. South African cinema is increasingly dominated by English-language films, as the industry seeks co-productions and Netflix deals, and as English overtakes Afrikaans more and more to become the country’s language of inter-ethnic communication. This year, all of the South African entries at Durban (their main domestic festival) were primarily in English. Still, I think that “Valley of a Thousand Hills”, a queer Zulu-language drama about a woman coming out as a lesbian despite her conservative family upbringing, will rep South Africa this year. There’s also Afrikaans-language melodrama “People of the Wind” and documentary "!Aitsa". Many are predicting Milisuthando (Sundance), but I think that’s mostly in English…
29. Sudan- “Goodbye Julia” Sudan submitted a film once in 2020 during a rare period of national openness, but that period ended in Fall 2021 with a violent coup d’etat, and the country is now engaged in a vicious civil war. That’s a shame because if their committee is able to meet, they could send critically acclaimed Cannes UCR drama “Goodbye Julia” about two women from opposing sides of the previous civil war (between Sudan and South Sudan) who become employer and employee and subsequently friends following an incident that kills the poorer woman’s husband. The writer-director, Mohammed Kordofani, is an aircraft engineer who began making films during Sudan’s brief democratic opening. Also possible: “The Dam” premiered at Cannes 2022 but only got a cinematic release in Europe in 2023.
30. Syria- “Nezouh” An opposition-backed selection committee sent a documentary to the Oscars in 2017 but hasn’t sent anything since. Last year, I predicted they could return with “Nezouh”, about a couple making the difficult decision whether to stay in their war-damaged home or flee and live as refugees. It won an Audience Award at Venice 2022 and played in European cinemas starting in 2023. I would love to see this one on the list.
31. Tanzania- “Wandongwa” Tanzania rejoined the Oscar race last year after a 20-year absence. They have four new films premiering at their main festival, the Zanzibar International Film Festival (ZIFF), and of these the most promising looks to be “Wandongwa”, a Swahili-language film about a traditional village.
32. Tunisia- “Four Daughters” Kaouther Ben Hania got Tunisia’s surprise first Oscar nomination for “The Man Who Sold His Skin” (it’s great, though I preferred her brilliant “Beauty and the Dogs”). Ben Hania competed in Cannes this year with documentary “Four Daughters” about a woman with two (idiotic) daughters who join ISIS, and who are cinematically replaced with professional actresses. It would be foolish to bet against her, but the movie I predicted last year- “Harka” (Cannes 2022)- finally got released in Tunisian cinemas in January 2023, and Ridha Behi (“Satin Rouge”) has a new movie starring grande dame Claudia Cardinale. But I still think “Daughters” will get this.
33. Turkey- "About Dry Grasses" Nuri Bilge Ceylan has made six films since 2002 and five of these were sent to the Oscars (somehow Palme d'Or nominee "Climates" lost to obscure local comedy "Ice Cream, I Scream!"). Ceylan's films are overlong and boring but critics eat them up....and "About Dry Grasses" was nominated for the Palme d'Or and won Best Actress at Cannes....So, I'm pretty sure Turkey will pick it....I'm also pretty sure that I won't watch it. I'd much prefer they picked "Burning Days" (Best Turkish Film, Ankara) but the political (and queer) overtones will make Turkey uncomfortable. The winners of Best Turkish Film at Turkey's other three major festivals this year are crime drama "Black Night" (Antalya), rural mystery "Snow and the Bear", and majority German production "In the Blind Spot" (Istanbul). "Black Night" would be a strong competitor in a weaker year, but Ceylan's 195-minute film about a rural teacher trying to get a transfer to the city is probably going to be picked without anyone even paying attention to the other films.
34. Uganda- “The Passenger” Uganda entered the Oscar race for the first time last year and they probably have the easiest decision in Africa. Thriller “The Passenger”, in Pidgin English, dominated the local film awards for its story of a man with a mysterious package and the bus passenger who suspects him of being a dangerous terrorist.
35. Yemen- “The Burdened” War-torn Yemen has has sent two excellent films to the Oscars, including Amr Gamal’s “10 Days Before the Wedding”, one of the best films I saw from the 2018 competition. Director Gamal has a critically acclaimed new film this year- “The Burdened”- that premiered in Berlin and I’m really hoping this controversial abortion drama will be Yemen’s third-ever submission.
POSSIBLE DEBUTS:
Countries That
Have Formed Oscar Selection Committees:
The most likely debut from the region
is Namibia which formed an Oscar selection committee in 2021 but hasn’t
sent a film yet. We should see them sending “Under the Hanging Tree”
(Rotterdam), a “supernatural noir” about a female detective investigating a
suspicious death in the Kalahari desert. Zambia promised to send a movie
for the first last year….but didn’t. This year, they have a historical epic
called “Luthando” but it’s in English so I don’t seen them participating. The United
Arab Emirates and Rwanda also once formed selection committee but
never sent films…. I think both committees have “expired” after not sending
films five years in a row, but I could potentially see “Dalma”, about a woman
who disrupts life in a small Emirati island community or “The Bride” (Berlin),
a harrowing story of a Rwandan rape victim forced to marry her attacker, coaxing them to make their debut.
Countries That
Would Need to Form Oscar Selection Committees:
It’s been a good year for
Portuguese-speaking Africa. Angola has gotten a lot of festival play for
“Our Lady of the China Shop” but they also have “Tommy Guns”, a much bigger movie,
although it was made by a white Angola-born filmmaker based in Portugal. Both would
be a fitting debut for the southern African country especially since “Tommy Guns” failed to make the Portugal shortlist. Tiny Guinea-Bissau had a strong cinematic
tradition in the 70s and 80s and now has “Nome”, a new docu-drama about the
country’s war of independence.
From French-speaking Africa….we have
“Gazing at Stars”, which represented Mauritius at FESPACO, about two strangers who may start a romance. “Pantheon of Joy” from Benin looks
like a fascinating mix of local music and culture, alongside the baity story of a
fatherless boy. If we’re talking documentaries, Guinea had a film at
Berlin 2023- “Cemetery of Cinema”, about the country’s cinematic history. And the
Central African Republic, which unsuccessfully tried to submit a film (“Oka!”,
starring Kris Marshall) in 2011 could consider documentary “Eat
Bitter” (CPH: Dox) or “We, Students” (FESPACO) this year.
