MIDDLE EAST and AFRICA Predictions for International Feature Film at the 2027 Oscars

And here are my predictions for the MENA region (the Middle East and North Africa) followed by the films from sub-Saharan Africa.  

The countries of sub-Saharan Africa submitted just four films last year (Madagascar, South Africa and Uganda, plus Senegal, which was disqualified). The more established North African countries sent three more. This was surprising because a record number of African countries had announced selection committees (15, by my count). With strong potential entries by Congo, Kenya, Rwanda and Sudan, I think the number will go up this year.

I did very well with my predictions from the region last year, predicting 8/15 correctly. 

Algeria- “Chronicles from the Siege” Algeria took last year off, announcing that they didn’t have any films of sufficient quality to send to the Oscars. I expect this year will be a fierce two-way race between two politically tinged dramas – Malek Bensmail’s “The Arab” (Rotterdam) and Abdallah al-Khatib’s “Chronicles from the Siege” (Berlin). “The Arab”, which co-stars Hiam Abass and the late Ahmed Benaissa, re-examines Camus’ French classic “The Stranger” (and recent Algerian history) from an Algerian point of view. “Chronicles from the Siege” is a drama about Palestinians trying to survive Israeli occupation. This will be interesting. “Chronicles” is higher-profile, and neighboring Tunisia got an Oscar nomination last year with a film about Palestine. But though the film is a majority Algerian production, the director is a Germany-based, Syria-born Palestinian. But “The Arab” recently had its Algerian screenings pulled for unknown censorship reasons and it’s not scheduled to be released in French cinemas until November. A similar thing happened to “Papicha” a few years ago, which was sent by Algeria. So I’ll pick “Chronicles” for now. Horror-drama “Roqia”, which looked like an early frontrunner last year in Venice, will fail to dislodge these two leading political dramas. 

Egypt- “The Stories”  A few years ago, it was hard to find even one movie that could capably represent Egypt at the Oscars, but this year there are no less than eight- two Berlinale dramas (“Safe Exit” and “The Settlement”), three “big” new films by previously submitted and very accomplished directors- Abu Bakr Shawky’s “The Stories”, Mohamed Diab’s “Asad” and Marwan Hamed’s “El Sett”- and three smaller dark horses - absurdist comedy-drama “Complaint #713317” (Cairo/Rotterdam), documentary “One More Show”, and slow burn drama “My Father’s Scent”. Based on reviews alone, I think “The Stories” will be selected. It’s a sprawling film following two decades of Egyptian history (very “Oscary”), through the eyes of a man, his family and the Austrian student he is courting (based on the director’s parents). Shawky was previously picked for “Yomeddine”, its online review scores are the highest....it just generally looks like the most solid choice.  Close behind are “Asad”, a period drama about slavery in 19th century Egypt (director Diab deserved an Oscar nod for “Clash” but AMPAS didn't even shortlist it) and “My Father’s Scent”, a drama about family secrets that come out after a man dies. “El Sett”, a 3-hour biopic about one of the country’s greatest singers, and “One More Show”, a documentary about a Gaza circus are also possible…though “Sett” is probably “too local” and Egypt has never picked a documentary. From this list, the film I most want to see is absolutely dark comedy “Complaint”, about an elderly couple facing off against Egyptian bureaucracy. Looks great!  

Iran- “Land of Angels” So, without getting into politics, I’m fairly certain that Iran will boycott the Oscars this year due to their military conflict with the U.S....That would mean the Islamic Republic will be absent for just the second time since 1997 (they foolishly boycotted in 2012 because they didn’t like a YouTube video). If they do send a film (which they won’t), they’ll probably want to send a film that either shows Iran in a good light, or the U.S. and Israel in a bad one. That would seem to be “The Land of Angels”, which won Best Iranian Feature at the Fajr Film Festival and which focuses on a woman in Gaza seeking to save the lives of a group of children amidst Israeli attacks. A lighter option would be “Boating in Tehran”,  a sort-of-romantic-comedy about an Iranian man in the U.S. who returns to Iran to find a bride and get married. It shows Iran in a very human light and has a senior director with close ties to the regim. They have lots of other options but it would be a waste of time to go into them since they are unlikely to participate.

Iraq- “Irkalla- Gilgamesh’s Dream” Iraq was shortlisted last year for “The President’s Cake”, which was better than any of the five films that eventually got nominated. Sigh. Iraq should have a pretty easy decision this year, as I expect they will submit the critically acclaimed “Irkalla: Gilgamesh’s Dream”, an Arabic-language film by Mohamed al-Daradji who has been selected to represent Iraq three times. The film looks wonderful, and is about a 9-year living in wartime Iraq, who is convinced that local myths will help to bring his dead parents back to life. Iraq made the shortlist last year with the story of a 9-year old, so this will probably be the one. If they believe it’s the Kurdish region’s “turn”, then they could arrange a release for "No Paradise If You Are Killed by a Woman", which is also made by a previously submitted director, and which is about female Kurdish peshmerga fighters. However, I expect it will be eligible next year. Good luck to Irkalla!

Israel- “Our Loves” In June, the Israeli Film Academy announced the 22 films contending for the award and I put them in an IMDB List. The winner of the Best Picture award, which usually has 5 nominees, automatically represents Israel at the Oscars as long as it's not in English (like "The Band's Visit"). I predicted that three films would easily be nominated - (1)- “Our Loves” (just announced for Toronto), a multi-storyline drama set against the background of the October 7th terrorist attacks, (2)- “Tell Me Everything” (Sundance), a father-son drama set during the 1980s HIV/AIDS epidemic and (3)- “Where To?” (Berlin), a talky drama set in Berlin, about a middle-aged Palestinian driver and an Israeli youth who repeatedly cross paths in his Uber vehicle. I predicted that "Double Panther" (looks like an Israeli "The Departed") and "Heart of Gold" (a woman adopts an abandoned baby) would get the other two slots. When the Ophir nominations were announced last week, the three frontrunners were nominated, alongside three others: Poland-set drama "Mama" (Cannes), Orthodox wedding comedy "The Wedding Entertainer" (Tribeca), and an obscure out-of-left-field drama called "Home!" that hasn't screened anywhere. I still totally believe this is a race between the first three films, which were all nominated for Best Film, Best Director and Best Screenplay at the Ophirs (so was "Mama").

LGBT drama "Tell Me Everything" seems more likely than taxi movie "Where To?" for a couple of reasons. "Tell Me Everything" is the most nominated film in Ophir history and seems to have slightly stronger reviews. But the wild card is "Our Loves", which nobody has seen yet. The tragedy of October 7 looms large in Israel, where 1200 people were murdered that day by Hamas terrorists. Director Avi Nesher has had his films nominated numerous times but he's never won anything. Bad luck, or do they just not like him? Will this subject be "important enough" to finally award him? "Tell Me Something" director Moshe Rosenthal is also "owed". He was expected to win the Ophir and go to the Oscars in 2021 for "Karaoke"....but "Cinema Sabaya" (which was very good) was the surprise winner that year. Three of the past five years, Israel has picked a film about Israel's Palestinian community....so "Where To?" can't be counted out entirely. Based on the subject matter, I'm predicting "Our Loves"...but "Tell Me Everything" is definitely very, very possible. We'll find at the Ophir ceremony on September 9!

 

Jordan-  “Sink” Jordan has a three-way race but the obvious frontrunner is “Sink” (Toronto), a drama about a mother dealing with the debilitating mental health issues of her teenaged son. It looks like a more serious entry than local dark comedy “Simsim”, about a woman seeking to escape an unhappy marriage by netting her terrible husband a second wife, and coming-of-age crime drama "Boomah" (Shaghai). However, Jordan often sends majority Palestinian productions (like last year's shortlisted "All That's Left of You") so they sometimes pick something I didn't realize was eligible…That could benefit upcoming documentary “Concrete Land”, which booked a Semaine de la Critique berth at Locarno. All this could change if “Occupational Hazards”, a black comedy set in Jerusalem, is released before September 30. Starring Hiam Abbass and written/directed by the writer of Oscar-nominated “Theeb”, this will win out on the off chance it gets finished…but since it’s part of the “Final Cut” screenings in Venice that’s very unlikely. Mark it down in ink for next year.

Kuwait- “The Boy Inside the Cocoon” Kuwait last sent a film to the Oscars in 1978, before I was born. That’s the longest absence of any country! There’s no indication they plan to return this year, but for the sake of completion, I’ll predict “The Boy Inside the Cocoon”, a folk horror film about a boy dealing with his parent’s divorce and the death of his sister. It seems to have premiered in local cinemas in January. 

Lebanon- “Furies" Lebanon almost always chooses something released at the very last minute....which means the frontrunner is now "Furies", a feminist heist above two sisters trying to steal back money they lost during Lebanon's banking crisis. Though it's yet to premiere, it has booked berths at both Venice and Toronto and is executive produced by none other than George Clooney. That should do it. But if "Furies" is poorly received, they could also go with "Only Rebels Win" (Berlin Panorama), starring Hiam Abbass (again! Does this woman have body doubles?) It's a May-December romance about a widow (Abbass) who falls for a Sudanese asylum seeker. Dark horses: archival documentary "Do You Love Me?" (Venice 2025) and drama "Pipes" (Karlovy Vary).

Morocco- “Strawberries” For five of the past seven years, Morocco has simply picked a new film made by power couple Nabil Ayouch and Maryam Touzani, including last year’s criminally underappreciated “Calle Malaga” which deserved an Oscar nomination. Ayouch and Touzani don't have a new film this year and this year is somewhat quieter than previous years, but I predict that they’ll send Cannes Un Certain Regard title “Strawberries”, a well-reviewed film about two Moroccan women who face labor exploitation while working as seasonal strawberry pickers in Spain. The other possibility is “Behind the Palm Trees”, a drama about a man who becomes involved in a love triangle between his local girlfriend and a newly arrived French woman…It was the only Moroccan film in competition in Marrakech this year. Rounding out the Top 5: Director Noureddine Lakhmari has repped Morocco twice and his new “Mira” (Tallinn Black Nights) is about a rural village girl and her grandmother whose community is faced with an influx of migrants seeking to reach Europe (very topical, following the crisis in Ceuta!); “Bad Weather” is about a family conflict over a small inherited apartment; and “Halima” (Best Actress, Shanghai) is about an elderly woman who gets involved in the drug trade. 

Palestine- “Conversation with the Sea” Three films about Palestine made last year’s International Feature shortlist (plus “Butcher’s Stain”, an Israeli short which earned a Live-Action Short Oscar nomination). That included the entry from Palestine itself, which made the shortlist for the second year in a row. Palestinian artists and directors continue to impress. Most of Palestine’s contenders this year are documentaries (they sent docs in 2015, 2018 and 2023) and the two most likely are both about Gaza- "Citizen Osama" (Venice), about a photographer-turned-war-documentarian trying to protect his wife and child amidst Israeli strikes, and “The Mission”, about an Arab-British surgeon volunteering in the Gaza Strip. Interestingly, "Citizen Osama" was made by one of the 22 directors of "From Ground Zero", alongside its well-known producer Rashid Masharawi. “Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” and “Who Is Still Alive” have good reviews but foreign directors so I expect they're out of the running. Among fiction films, “Yunan” (Berlin), co-starring Hanna Schygulla, has the edge over “Yesterday the Eye Didn't Sleep” (Cannes Un Certain Regard), whose slow-moving plot has prompted some bloggers to argue that they did in fact sleep…..while the upcoming "Conversation with the Sea" (Venice and Toronto) and "13 in Gaza" (Toronto) look like potential serious threats if they get released in time. Dark horse: I’d love to see them send dark comedy “Once Upon a Time in Gaza”…but I think it was eligible last year (and probably isn't serious enough). I've changed my mind three times already but I'm predicting "Conversation with the Sea", about a father seeking to track down his long-lost son who disappeared two decades prior, due to its presence at two major festivals this year. "Osama" and Masharawi should be a razor-close second place.

Saudi Arabia- “Unidentified” Will Saudi Arabia go serious or silly? Ten years ago, this was not a question I thought I would ever ask, when cinema was banned and mullahs ran the kingdom…This year’s clear frontrunner is “Unidentified”, a thriller about a woman trying to solve the mystery of a young girl found dead in the desert. Reviews have been middling but director Haifaa al-Mansour is Saudi Arabia’s most well-known international filmmaker and she was personally involved in getting Saudi Arabia into the Oscar race back when cinemas were still closed. The film has also played at a number of festivals including Toronto and Tribeca. But Saudi Arabia unexpectedly picked an adult-themed comedy in 2023 and dark comedy “A Matter of Life and Death” – about a woman with a death wish and a man who dreams of murder - has gotten better reviews. I expect Saudi will go "serious" but both films look great. Unlikely but possible: mountain climbing documentary “Seven Summits”. 

Syria- “If Only the Year Had 364 Days” Syria sent a documentary to the Oscars in 2017 which was nominated by a pro-opposition selection committee in exile. Now that the civil war is over, we will probably see Syria return. In fact, Qatar has backed a $1.5 billion deal to build a massive entertainment, tourism, and film production hub in Syria. But I doubt that will happen this year. To check the box, I’ll predict “If Only the Year Had 364 Days”, a docu-drama about a political prisoner who returns to the notorious Syrian prison where he was tortured, following the revolution.

Tunisia- “Promised Sky” Tunisia has managed to make the International shortlist three times in the past six years, thanks to Kaouther Ben Hania, earning three Oscar nominations (two in International Film, one in Documentary Feature). If the year ended today, it would be foolish to bet against “Promised Sky”, a topical film about African migrants that has played at festivals around the world since its Cannes debut last year. I didn’t like Erige Sehiri’s previous film “Under the Fig Trees” so I’d prefer they chose the likely runner-up “Where the Wind Comes From”, a breezy road movie about two 20-year olds on a road trip to Tunisia’s desert south. In third place- Berlin drama “In a Whisper” is a French co-production about a lesbian (will the film be too gay for Tunisia?) coming home to Tunisia for a funeral and encountering murder mysteries and family secrets. I have dark horse “Têtes brûlées” (Berlin 2025, 14+), about adolescent grief and co-stars Hiam Abbass (is this woman in everything?). But wait one minute…Ben Hania has a new film (“Mimesis”) in post-production and there are rumors it's being prepped for a premiere soon (it was rumored for Venice but is not in the lineup). Could she finish it in time and do another “Hind Rajab”? We’ll see. Interesting trivia: ALL FIVE of the Tunisian frontrunners are directed by women…meaning that Tunisia is almost certain to select a female-helmed film for the fifth year in a row. A possible international record??

Turkey- “Empire of the Rabbits” I wrote up my predictions for Turkey in July. I said it was a wide-open race, but that I was predicting "Empire of the Rabbits" (Tallinn Black Nights). Apparently that was submitted last year even though it didn't get a wide cinematic release in Turkey until this year. Turkey ended up selecting a film I had never heard of at all...."Like a Limbless Tree"....so I had it wrong anyway. The obvious choice to represent Turkey – Emin Alper’s “Salvation”- wasn't likely to be considered because Alper has been a longtime critic of President Erdogan and publicly feuded with the Ministry of Culture…which forms the Oscar selection committee. In addition to "Empire of the Rabbits", I was also looking at “As We Breathe” (Toronto/Cairo), “Greatest Funeral Hits” (Tokyo), “Hear the Yellow” (Berlinale Forum) and “Bonds, Roots and Passions” in my (incorrect) Top Five. 

Yemen- “The Station”  War-torn Yemen has submitted three films since 2016, all of which exceeded my expectations (my favorite was “10 Days Before the Wedding”). This year, UK-Yemeni director Sara Ishaq, who got an Oscar nomination in the Doc Short category in 2014, had a new fiction feature at Cannes called “The Station”, about a gas station that employs and serves only women, amidst the country’s bloody civil war. It looks wonderful and has great reviews and I truly hope they form a committee to send it to Hollywood.

And here are the possibilities from sub-Saharan Africa....Over the years, 22 sub-Saharan African countries have sent films but each year only a few submit. Last year, there were just four. Here's a summary:

Will Submit:        Kenya, Senegal, South Africa

Probably Will:     Congo-Kinshasa, Nigeria, Rwanda (debut), Sudan, Uganda

50/50:                    Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Madagascar, Mozambique, Somalia

Probably Won't:  Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania

Won't Submit:    Lesotho, Mauritania, Namibia, Niger

Burkina Faso- “Katanga, The Dance of the Scorpions” The capital of African arthouse cinema has only officially entered the competition twice (in 1989 and 2023) which is a shame because they have made some of my favorite African films. A Burkinabe film- “Katanga, The Dance of the Scorpions”- won the local FESPACO African Film Festival in 2025 and it seems to have been released in African and European cinemas late that year. So if there’s any justice this sumptuous Shakespearean tragedy based on Macbeth should go to Hollywood…but maybe it’s too politically controversial for Burkina’s current military dictatorship?

Cameroon- “Malgré Tout” Between 2020-2024, Cameroon sent five films by three young directors to the Oscars. All three came from the same English-speaking region of Bamenda in northwestern Cameroon. One of them, Enah Johnscott, is making his French-language debut this year with “Malgré Tout”, about the problems faced by a young woman who has recently graduated from university. That’s definitely their most likely choice. 

Chad- “Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars” Impoverished Chad had a rare film last year at FESPACO and Toronto - “Diya”, about the grim tradition of requiring “blood money” from those who cause an accidental death. I’ve heard it’s pretty great. However, Chad’s three previous Oscar submissions were all made by auteur director (and former Minister of Culture) Mahamat-Saleh Haroun, so it would be silly to bet against “Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars” (Berlin/Toronto), a sci-fi drama about a 17-year girl experiencing troubling supernatural visions. 

Congo-Kinshasa- “Congo Boy” Congo sent a single film way back in 1997…but this year, they made the unexpected announcement that they were planning to return to the competition and that they were launching an official call for submissions. With a fiction film at Cannes Un Certain Regard (“Congo Boy”, also in Locarno), a documentary at Berlinale Panorama (“Enough is Enough”), and a genuine local box-office hit (“Rumba Royale”)  in the running, it’s a great year for a return. With plans for a pan-African release and special screenings in the U.S., I was going to predict this would go to historical thriller “Rumba Royale” set during the final years of Belgian colonial rule and featuring a thumping local soundtrack….but reviews for “Congo Boy” are much better. 

Côte d’Ivoire- “In the Shadow of Bitterness” The Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) sent films by Philippe Lacôte in 2015 and 2020 (somehow making the shortlist for the inscrutable poetry of “La nuit des rois”). This year, their most acclaimed film is a political documentary called “Far From Anger”, about women seeking justice for the atrocities of the 2011 civil war. But if they do return, they’re more likely to send the less controversial melodrama “Dans l’ombre de l’aigreur” (In the Shadow of Bitterness), about an unlucky businessman driven to desperate measures. I think they’ll skip. 

Ethiopia- “Dolivia” Ethiopia sent four films to the Oscars between 2010-2019 before giving up, although they do have a sizeable local film industry. This year’s highest profile film is 9-hour (?!) documentary “Black Lions – Roman Wolves”, which somehow played at Berlinale (hopefully there was a bathroom break). If Ethiopia did choose to return, they could send Amharic-language drama “Dolivia” (about gold miners) or Oromo-language folklore thriller “Keeper of the Lake”. 

Ghana- “Ego Reach We All (Our Time Will Come)” Ghana sent a film just once in 2019. Most of Ghanaian films are primarily in English, though some of those include enough of the local dialect to qualify under new rules that allow English-language films that require subtitles for international audiences to understand. This year, “Sukura: The Homecoming”, about an African-American man researching his family history in Ghana dominated the local film awards and is definitely too “English” to qualify. Ghana would need to be re-approved to enter the race (because they've been absent more than five years) but they could send one of two upcoming films- "Ego Reach We All (Our Time Will Come)" (in Twi, Ga and Pidgin English) which premiered this week in Locarno to excellent reviews, or “Zjili” (in the Dagbani and Twi languages), a drama about female labor migration which is set to premiere in Toronto Discovery next month. "Ego", a film about teenaged street kids that Variety just called an "atmospheric and emotionally absorbing feature debut", looks really beautiful. They also have local crime drama “King of T3ma”. I'm not confident "Ego" or “Zjili” can get a cinematic release by September 30, but "Ego" has a better chance of doing so....Maybe Ghana will be back next year?  

Kenya- “One Woman, One Bra” Kenya skipped last year due to a lack of suitable entries, but this year has been much stronger. Their most likely submission is “One Woman, One Bra” (Tribeca), which is a far more serious film than its title indicates, about an orphan trying to secure the rights to her father’s land against the encroachment of greedy neighbors. This looks great and is one of the African films I'm most excited to see this year. If not, it will probably be “Anam’s Wake”, a supernatural thriller by the director of “Supa Modo”, about a professional mourner who actually meets Death. Although Kenya will probably choose between these two, Kenya also has hijacking drama “Bus 338”, crime drama (and Swedish coproduction) “The Dog”, as well as documentaries “Kikuyu Land” (Sundance) and “Truck Mama” (Red Sea). Kenya will definitely be back.

Lesotho- Nothing The small mountain kingdom of Lesotho sent a film just once in 2020. The director of that film had a documentary that played in Berlin last year (“Ancestral Visions of the Future”) but it appears to be completely in English. They don’t have anything else to send. 

Madagascar- “Dear Ancestor” Madagascar joined the Oscar race last year for the first time with the intriguing drama “Disco Afrika”. While they probably won’t return this year, they do have “Dear Ancestor”, an unconventional documentary set in the year 2067, looking back on present-day mining and environmental activism (which was also the main theme of “Disco Afrika”). 

Malawi – “Chitomero” Malawi has entered the Oscar race twice and they could very well return this year with either “Chitomero”, about the controversial tradition of child betrothal, or “Royal Dilemma”, a rare costume drama from the region about the relationship between two noble families. I give the edge to “Chitomero” which got a cinematic release before being released online. 

Mauritania- “Undertows- A Tuareg Tale” Abderrahmane Sissako got an Oscar nomination for Mauritania in 2015 for “Timbuktu”. He waited a decade to make his next film (Chinese co-production “Black Tea”), which was notably not sent to the Oscars. So, Mauritania will be absent yet again. For the sake of completion, I’ll predict “Undertows”, a documentary focusing on the challenges faced by the Tuareg people living in the harsh Mauritanian-Malian Sahel. 

Mozambique- “The Prophet” Mozambique submitted a very good film in 2017 and they’re still the only one of the five Portuguese-speaking African countries ever to enter the Oscar race. This year, I am hoping that they return with “The Prophet” (Rotterdam), a supernatural B+W drama about a Christian pastor who makes an unholy deal with a witch to increase his influence over his congregation. Filmed over the course of nine years, it has played internationally and has English subtitles and hopefully will encourage them to return. They also have “Blood and Remorse”, a psychological thriller about how a tragic accident affects a group of friends. 

Namibia- Nothing Namibia sent the fascinating David Lynch-esque “Under the Hanging Tree” in 2023. Last year, they had an open call for submissions and received two entries but determined that one was a majority South African-production and the other wasn’t released within the eligibility window. Similarly, I think this year they won’t have anything eligible. Their highest-profile film - “Wrong Generation”, an indie drama about youth street protests - appears to be primarily in English. 

Niger- Nothing Coup-prone Niger submitted one film in 2018 but they’re among the least likely countries to return this year. I don’t think they have anything eligible, although “The Big Everything” (Le grand tout), a documentary featuring ordinary Nigerien people speaking about  politics and history would be an interesting choice. It was directed by a white French filmmaker with strong family ties to Niger. 

Nigeria- “Lady”  I don’t like to waste much time researching Nigeria because it’s hard to figure out what meets the language requirements and because their committee usually meets (perhaps for a buffet lunch?) and decides to send nothing….even when they have multiple suitable options. Nigeria, by far Africa’s most populous nation, has had an approved Oscar committee since 2014 but they’ve only sent films four times – including one that was 95% in standard English and disqualified. On paper, it would seem the frontrunner is UK co-production “Lady”, about a female driver who befriends a group of sex workers and becomes their personal chauffeur. It played in Berlin and won Best Acting Ensemble at the Sundance Film Festival but it’s in a mix of “English and Nigerian Pidgin English” and I’m not sure it’s eligible. “The Secret Lives of Baba Segi's Wives”, a comedy-drama-soap-opera about the four feuding wives of a wealthy Yoruba man, would be a fantastic option if they can do a qualifying release by September 30...It's currently scheduled to be released in December. There are also a number of pre-colonial Yoruba-language costume dramas in the running like “Segilola: The Villain” (which sounds really good), “King of Thieves 2” (Note: the well-reviewed first film in the series was submitted to the Nigerian committee which then decided to send nothing) and “Warlord”. If it meets the language requirement, my prediction is “Lady” but I'm personally hoping for “Baba Segi’s Wives” which definitely has enough foreign language content.

Rwanda- “Ben’imana” Rwanda got an official Oscar selection committee approved last year. Although they didn’t send a film, they are likely to debut this year with “Ben’imana”, which won the 2026 Cannes Un Certain Regard Camera d’Or this year. It’s about a woman who works in community rebuilding following the Rwandan genocide and, according to IMDB, has some sort of sci-fi element (?!). Whether it is picked or not will likely depend on whether it can get a 7-day cinematic release somewhere.  They also have basketball drama “Kwibuka”, which co-stars Jean-Hugues Anglade! 

Senegal- “Dao” African films rarely gets shortlisted but Senegal was shortlisted three times for the six films they sent between 2017-2024…though I didn’t think any of them deserved this honor (in my opinion, the best Senegalese submission - “Nafi’s Father”-  was ignored entirely). Five Senegalese directors have been selected over the years and two – Alain Gomis and Mamadou Dia – have new films this year. Dia, who was quietly disqualified for unknown reasons last year, has dance documentary “Atcha Atcha”, which is due to premiere in Locarno. French-born Gomis premiered “Dao”, described as a “sprawling 3-hour epic” about family traditions and ancestors set between France and Guinea-Bissau (though not Senegal). Berlin and Gomis give “Dao” the edge. 

Somalia- “Barni” Somalia sent a lovely film to the Oscars just once in 2021. If they return this year, it will surely be “Barni” (Locarno 2025), a well-reviewed drama directed by Somali-American Mohammed Sheikh, about a girl who mysteriously disappears during a village wedding. It’s one of the films I’m hoping will be a surprise entry this year. 

South Africa- “Laundry” South Africa’s biggest films are usually in English but this has been a very good year for local-language cinema. The frontrunner is Zulu-language “Laundry” (Toronto), a well-reviewed drama about a family of Black business owners, set during some of the worst years of apartheid. I’m pretty sure that will be the one, but it faces competition from “God’s Work” (also in Zulu), an experimental drama about the lives of homeless men in the city of Durban, and “The Trek”, an brand-new Afrikaans horror-drama set during a journey across the Kalahari Desert. Another Afrikaans option, “Variations on a Theme” (Rotterdam), looks intriguing; it’s about an elderly village widow who becomes the victim of a scam – but at just 65 minutes, I hear it’s somewhat slight. Berlin LGBT youth drama “Black Burns Fast” probably has too much English.

Sudan- “Cotton Queen” War-torn Sudan tried to find a film to send last year but the only film submitted to their committee was found to be ineligible (I don’t know why). Their two previous submissions ranged from very good (“You Will Die at 20”) to truly great (“Goodbye Julia”...it's a crime that AMPAS did not nominate this incredibly moving films.....). I think “Cotton Queen” (Venice 2025) will be number three. It’s about a headstrong young woman seeking to preserve her community’s way of life when faced with the pressures of globalization. It appears to have gotten a qualifying release in Germany and Egypt that would make it eligible. It also looks fantastic. Runner-up: Sundance documentary “Khartoum”. 

Tanzania- “Nisamahe Baba” Tanzania returned to the Oscars with much local fanfare in 2022 after a 20-year absence…then they promptly quit again. They had two local feature films at their international film festival in Zanzibar this year – “Nisamehe Baba” and English-language “Couple Goals”.....So my prediction is “Nisamahe Baba”, a drama about urban youth in an impoverished Swahili-speaking neighborhood….but they’ll surely skip again this year. 

Uganda- “Adui” Uganda seems to have an easy decision this year, with poaching drama “Adui” the frontrunner. Reportedly the first Ugandan film to be screened at the Cannes Film Market, it was also the most nominated African-language film at Uganda’s national film awards. It’s about a game ranger ostracized by his village after he is blamed for the death of a poacher’s son. “Small Gods”, about impoverished street performers in a tourist town, got a Best African Film nomination at the African Oscars and a Best East African Film award in Zanzibar, but the director is British so I think they’ll opt for “Adui”. 

Zambia- "Mwizukanji 2" Zambia has just sent out an open call for Oscar submissions. They've done this before but they've never sent a film....probably because many of their local films are in English. All the trailers I watched of big new releases - "The Light", "Mwizukanji 2" and ""- appear to be mostly in standard English but AI says they're largely in indigenous African languages. I'll pick sequel "Mwikukanji 2" about a woman trying to restart her life after serving time in prison because it has the best chance of qualifying based on language...But I expect they just won't enter. Presidential biopic "The Boy Who Became President" looks terrible, but likely won't premiere in time.

EASTERN EURO PREDICTIONS for the Oscar for Best International Film

It's that time of year again! Greetings from beautiful Baku, Azerbaijan. 

I planned to skip my predictions this year as I didn't love most of the 72 submissions I watched last year...but I found some free time....Yesterday, SLOVAKIA became the first country to announce their submission ("The Flood")....and I've already got one wrong...... Last year, I did terribly...predicting only 7 out of 20 countries correctly.

But here are my predictions for the 24 countries of Eastern Europe- 

ALBANIA- “Man of the House” It’s difficult to see Albania choosing anything besides “Man of the House” (Sarajevo ’25), a film about Albania's unique tradition of “sworn virgins” – women who for various reasons live their lives as men from an early age. This film introduces us to Fran, who has always lived her life this way but is confronted with maternal feelings when she is required to take care of an orphaned niece. Albania doesn't have anything else that would be serious enough to send so this should be an easy choice.

ARMENIA- “Outliving Shakespeare” Armenia’s Film Awards this year were dominated by “In the Land of Arto” (Locarno), a French co-production about a Frenchwoman who travels to Armenia to register the death of her Armenian husband, but who learns that everything he ever told her of his life was a lie. Film reviewers describe the film using words like “enigmatic”, “thoughtful” and “heavy-handed”.....in other words, very, very mixed......Director Tamara Stepanyan was picked last year for documentary “My Armenian Phantoms”, so I predict Armenia will send “Outliving Shakespeare”, which won Best Documentary Feature at the national Anahit Awards. It’s about an eccentric theatre troupe run out of a retirement community that performs Shakespeare. The film is directed by Inna Sahakyan who made the absolutely beautiful “Aurora’s Sunrise” that represented Armenia a few years ago. Also possible: revenge drama “Thus Spoke the Wind”, which looks quite good.

AZERBAIJAN- “Taghiyev IV: School” Azerbaijan returned to the Oscars last year with “Taghiyev: Oil”, the first of a tetralogy (I just learned that word today…It’s the four-film version of a trilogy!) of big-budget biopics about the life of oil magnate Zeynalabdin Taghiyev. I hate biopics and I’m not a huge fan of period dramas...but “Taghiyev: Oil” was quite good and definitely the best Azerbaijani submission I've seen so far. The first two Taghiyev films (“Oil” and “Tsar”) were released in last year’s Oscar calendar year and the final two (“Sona” and “School”) are eligible this year. I think they’ll pick the concluding chapter - “Taghiyev IV: School” - which is about Taghiyev’s successful efforts to launch Azerbaijan's first school for girls, over the objections of backwards Islamic clerics. The third film ("Sona") is about his controversial marriage to a teenager so it’s clear to me they’ll send the final film instead. Oh, and the four films are produced by the daughter of the President....which is another reason I'm pretty sure they'll submit this year. 

BELARUS- “One for Two” Belarus submitted films from 1994-1996 and then again from 2018-2020 but they’ve been absent since before the Russian Oscar boycott of 2022. Most of their films are co-productions with Russia and they’re unlikely to return this year. Their national film festival featured a big Belarusian adventure film this year (“The Black Castle”) but it was released too early to compete. Their best bet would be “One for Two”, a patriotic film based on the true story of two military pilots who courageously died steering a jet away from a residential area in 2021.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA- “Testament” Bosnia has had a very quiet year. I think it may be the first year ever that there were no Bosnian-majority productions premiering at the Sarajevo Film Festival. I see their only two options as “Otter”, a Montenegrin co-production with a Bosnian director, and popular village comedy “Testament”.  “Otter” is the more serious of the two. This coming-of-age drama (also in contention for MONTENEGRO) premiered at the Sarajevo Film Festival last year and is directed by Srđan Vuletić, who I think is the only Bosnian Serb ever to represent Bosnia at the Oscars. His “It’s Hard to Be Nice” was one of my two favorite Bosnian submissions (alongside the Oscar-nominated “Quo Vadis, Aida?”). “Testament” is a comedy about local inheritance traditions and is set in the early 1990s when Bosnia was on the brink of war. It has the disadvantage of being a sequel to local hit film “Father’s Last Wish”, which was released in 2022. Last year, Bosnia picked a dull documentary over a wonderfully dark comedy (“Pavilion”) but that film had a Golden Bear winner behind it. So, I’m predicting “Testament”.

BULGARIA- “Made in EU” The Bulgarian Academy definitely has a few favorite directors that they just love. Since 2009, they’ve sent 17 films - three made by Stephan Komandarev, three by the duo of Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov and two films each by Milko Lazarov and Ivaylo Hristov. Komandarev and Grozeva/Valchanov have new movies this year – COVID drama “Made in EU” and dark scammer comedy “Black Money for White Nights” (Karlovy Vary) – which automatically makes them the frontrunners on paper. But both of them are very prolific and have had films that weren’t selected....so “Lust” (Berlinale Forum), “Women Out of Order”, and especially “Wild Strawberries” are also in play. Bulgaria has three main precursor film festival/award ceremonies  - (1)- “Made in EU” won the 2025 Best Film Award at the Golden Rose Film Festival (the other four films weren’t eligible), (2)- “Women Out of Order” won Best Bulgarian Film at the Sofia Film Festival; and (3)- last year’s Oscar submission “Tarika” won Best Film at the Bulgarian Academy Awards.  I think Komandarev will go to Hollywood this year for “Made in EU” because it’s the most high-profile possibility, although “Wild Strawberries”, a lighthearted dramedy about a Bulgarian-American who inherits a countryside house from the grandmother she never met, has even stronger reviews from critics. Komandarev richly deserved an Oscar nod for "Blaga's Lessons" just as Grozeva and Valchanov did for "Glory" back in 2017. I predict “Made in EU”, followed by ‘cruel but hilarious’ (according to Hollywood Reporter) “Black Money for White Nights” and “Strawberries” a very close third thanks to its great reviews…The other two are out of their league. PS- Some people are talking about Cannes Jury Prize winner “The Dream Adventurer”, but that’s a majority German production.

CROATIA- “God Will Not Help” Croatia always picks a movie from their national Pula Film Festival although which one they choose is often a surprise. The “Best Croatian Film” award has only matched their Oscar submission three of the past ten years (“Tereza37”, “On the Other Side” and “Mali”), while Best Director matches up somewhat more often (5/10).  This year’s three frontrunners are dramas “Honey Bunny” (Best Film, Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress) and “God Will Not Help” (Best Cinematography, Score), plus raucous comedy “The Wedding” (Best Ensemble, Supporting Actor, Casting and Best Producer…an award I’ve never understood). I’m predicting “God Will Not Help”, largely because it's the only one that got screened at a major festival (Locarno 2025). It’s a tense period drama about a Spanish-speaking woman who arrives in a Croatian village claiming to be the widow of a family’s long-lost son. “Honey Bunny”, a family drama about two sisters, clearly has fans from Pula (where it won Best Film) and will probably finish a very close second, while blockbuster hit “The Wedding”, which just beat “Titanic” to be the most-watched film ever in Croatia, is about an insane family wedding between a Croatian girl and a Serbian boy. It’s a crowdpleaser and would be a refreshing non-traditional choice. Rounding out the Top 5- social services documentary “The Thing To Be Done” (good reviews but it was made in Slovenia) and family drama “Small Things”.

CZECH REPUBLIC- “If Pigeons Turned to Gold” The Czech Republic made things easy this year by announcing in July that ten films had registered to join the race and that five had been shortlisted – drag queen dramedy “Chica Checa”, documentary “If Pigeons Turned to Gold”, ice hockey drama “Invincibles”, crime comedy “Little Thief” and elder-comedy “Five Plums”. (For those interested, the five films that weren’t shortlisted were drama “Dancing with the Bear”, comedy “Dream Team”, war biopic “Lone Wolf”, and documentaries “Don’t Worry, Breathe, Work Your Magic “ and “Public Space of František Skála”). First of all, the Czechs should have capped the shortlist at three; “Invincibles”, about the country’s para-ice-hockey team couldn’t even manage a Best Film nomination at last year’s Czech Lions, and “Little Thief” has good reviews but is still a commercial comedy aimed at local audiences. And then there were three….”If Pigeons Turned to Gold” is an experimental documentary shot on an iPhone by a filmmaker documenting drug addiction within her family. It has by far the best reviews of the three and won Best Documentary at Berlinale 2026. But the Czechs picked an experimental documentary last year….will they do it two years in a row? “Five Plums” (aka “What a Way to Go”) is a comedy about five aging friends on a trip to Greece and is directed by Jan Sverak who won an Oscar for “Kolya”…but that was thirty years ago and the film looks more like a Saturday night "comfort watch" than an Oscar winner. “Chica Checa” (aka “Czech Girl”), about a gay Czech who returns home to visit his dying grandmother, was the Czech representative in the Crystal Globe competition at Karlovy Vary and the Czechs picked a queer film last year so they're comfortable with the subject matter. I prefer when countries send comedies, but I think the Berlin award will push “If Pigeons” over the finish line. If they don’t like the shaky iPhone (I'm pretty sure I won't....), then “Chica” should get this.

ESTONIA- “Morten” Estonia has had a quiet film year. I'm pretty certain their submission will be “Morten”, a coming-of-age drama about an introverted 15-year old that premiered at Karlovy Vary and will be released in Estonia in September. However, Estonia has made surprising choices the past two years (“Rolling Papers” over “Frank”, and “8 Views Over Lake Biwa” over “Lioness”) so perhaps they’ll surprise with eclectic documentary “Edge of the Night”, a love letter to the secret (seedy?) side of Tallinn, the prettiest of the three Baltic capitals.

GEORGIA- “Dry Leaf” Guria At first glance, Georgia seems to have a very easy decision this year. “Dry Leaf”, a 3-hour drama about the search for a missing woman, is both the highest-profile and best-reviewed Georgian film of the year, it has festival play and awards (Locarno 2025) and many probably feel that director Aleksandre Koberidze is “owed” after his brilliant “What Do We See When We Look At the Sky?” was snubbed in a competitive year. Two previously submitted directors also have new films - Ana Urushadze’s “Supporting Role”, about an aging actor, won two awards in Rotterdam and also has very good reviews; and George Ovashvili’s “The Moon is a Father of Mine”, a coming-of-age drama set during the tumultuous first year of Georgian independence. Ovashvili was previously shortlisted for the (dull) “Corn Island”. But wait! This just in! Levan Koguashvili is one of my favorite Eastern European directors and he made my favorite Georgian film "Street Days". He has a new tragicomedy (“Guria”) scheduled to premiere in Venice and it sounds pretty great…. Koguashvili (who I had the pleasure of  meeting at a screening of "Blind Dates") was the director who unexpectedly knocked Koberidze off his pedestal with late release “Brighton 4^th” (a great and highly underrated film) in 2021. Could history repeat itself? Dark horse: “Tear Gas”, a politically polarizing film about a Georgian family involved in mass protests, recently premiered in a Locarno sidebar.  UPDATE: "Dry Leaf" is one of the worst films I've ever seen and I refuse to predict it. I actually truly believe the film is a colossal joke and that Aleksandre Koberidze made the film to make fun of international festivals and critics a la "The Emperor's New Clothes", daring them to watch the plotless, barely visible film (it was shot on an old iphone) for three hours and call it a work of art. And they did! Georgia must submit either "Supporting Role" or "Guria". 

HUNGARY- “Feels Like Home” Hungary should send “Feels Like Home”, as it is probably the best film I have seen this year….The less you know about it the better, but it’s a solid, disturbing and satisfying thriller.  Standing in its way are three more visible, “traditional” festival films, namely Laszlo Nemes’ French-language biopic “Moulin”, multilingual (English, German and Cantonese) “Silent Friend” (Venice 2025), and soon-to-premiere “Ground Floor” (Venice 2026), which is actually in Hungarian. “Silent Friend” has amazing reviews but I’ve heard varying things about whether it has too much English to qualify. Set around the same tree in Germany in 1908, 1972 and 2020, the film is directed by Ildikó Enyedi (“On Body and Soul”) and co-stars Tony Leung and Lea Seydoux. Black comedy “Ground Floor”, about an apartment building infected with black mold, is set to open on October 1^st (the day after the deadline) but Hungary often arranges qualifying releases for the Oscars and tends to prefer late releases. Dark horses: “Iron and Earth”, an upcoming drama set in 1947, 1985 and 2025, and “Stars of Little Importance”, an indie drama set at Christmastime. Acclaimed directors Kornél Mundruczó and Lilli Horvath have new films but they are in English. I’m optimistically predicting that the new Orban-less Hungary will do the right thing and pick “Feels Like Home”, although “Silent Friend” will probably get this if the committee decides that more than 50% of the film is foreign-language. “Ground Floor” is very much in with a chance if Venice reviews are positive. I think Hungary will “wait and see” the reaction from Venice before announcing.

KOSOVO- “Dua” Kosovo submitted films to the Oscars ever year from 2014-2022 - getting shortlisted once - before abruptly quitting the competition, sparking annual protests from among the country’s tiny filmmaking community in 2023, 2024 and 2025. This year, they are in the unusual position of benefiting from AMPAS’ new rule giving an automatic slot to the Sundance Grand Jury Prize- Kosovo’s “Shame and Money” (director Visar Morina directed "Exile", my favorite Kosovar submission, in 2020). So, Kosovo will be represented…possibly by two films! Blerta Basholli got Kosovo to the shortlist for “Hive” (also a Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner!) and her new film “Dua” (Cannes), a coming-of-ager about a girl witnessing the collapse of rump Yugoslavia and the birth of an independent Kosovo, is bound to be selected if the Kosovar selection committee bothers to send a film for the first time in four years.

LATVIA- “Red Code Blue” Latvia is difficult to predict this year. Previously submitted directors Viestur Kairish (the only Latvian director ever selected more than once) and Dzintars Dreibergs (director of the highest-grossing Latvian language film of all time) are competing against the winner of this year’s Latvian Film Awards and possibly also a Russian-language Latvian co-production directed by two-time Russian Oscar nominee Andrey Zvyagintsev. “Minotaur”, which won the Cannes Grand Prize, is absolutely not a majority Latvian film...but it could be hoping for a “Sacred Fig”/”It Was Just An Accident” political exile slot. Latvia has recently become a hub for exiled Russian-language directors....Sergei Loznitsa’s ”Two Prosecutors” was shot here too….But because "Minotaur" seems like a long shot, let’s look at the three “real” Latvian frontrunners- “Escape Net”, “Red Code Blue” and “Ulya”. Strangely enough, “Escape Net” (Dreibergs) and “Ulya” (Kairish) are both dramas about Soviet-era women’s basketball! That’s quite a niche genre. “Ulya” was in Cannes Un Certain Regard but reviews are weaker than “Escape Net” and there is some controversy over the fact that a man was cast in the title role of ‘giant’ female basketball player Ulya…..that’s not likely to please hyper-sensitive, PC U.S. voters.  So, it’s probably going to be “Escape Net”, about a Stalin-era Soviet girl trying to get permission to travel abroad by playing for the national basketball team, versus “Red Code Blue”, a gritty crime drama set in the turbulent early days of Latvian independence in the 90s. “Red Code Blue” beat out “Escape” in most major categories at the Latvian Film Awards (“Escape” won the Audience Award) and the Latvian Academy is one of those that tends to give a chance to new and younger directors….So, I think “Red Code Blue” will get this, with “Escape” second, wild card “Minotaur” third, “Ulya” fourth and the female-helmed dramedy “Flesh, Blood, Even a Heart” rounding out the Top 5.

LITHUANIA- “How to Divorce During the War” Winning an award at Sundance is a bit different than winning an award at artsy Berlin or Locarno – it shows a film can connect with an American audience. So, the fact that Lithuania won Best Director at Sundance for “How to Divorce During the War” means it will probably be going to the Oscars. "Divorce" is a well-reviewed drama about a couple who make plans to divorce on February 23, 2022…unknowingly on the day before Russia invades Ukraine, which directly affects their future plans. Writer-director Andrius Blazevicius probably just missed representing Lithuania a few years back for “Runner” so I think he’ll be selected easily this year.  Also in the running: odd couple Taiwan co-production “China Sea” and smuggling drama “Borderline” both screened at Tallinn Black Nights, while slow family drama “Back to the Family” premiered in Rotterdam; all three are made by previously submitted directors; “Spring” (Vesna), made in Russian and Ukrainian, is a tragic drama about a priest helping to return Ukrainian fallen soldiers to their families – it premiered in a Cannes Special Screening; and since Lithuania often sends documentaries, there’s also nature doc (about fungus!) “Holy Destructors” which won Best Documentary at the Lithuanian Film Awards and has played at a number of festivals internationally. “The Visitor”, which swept the country’s Film Awards this year, appears to have been eligible last year. I’m confident for “Divorce” but “Holy Destructors” is the most promising runner-up, with “China Sea” and “Spring” unlikely but possible.

MACEDONIA- “17” Macedonia has a wide-open race with three very serious options- “Good People” (Sarajevo ’26), a documentary by Oscar nominee Milcho Manchevski about the 2025 Kocani nightclub fire that killed 63 partygoers; “Skateboarding is Not for Girls” (Tribeca), a coming-of-age drama about modern-day teenagers faced with an abusive tradition of so-called ‘bridal sale’; and “17” (Berlinale Perspectives), about two teenaged friends dealing with the aftermath of a sexual assault. This one is tough! All three films would make excellent submissions. Manchevski has been picked four times before, but they notably did not send his last film (“Kaymak”). For now, I’ll say “17”, because it’s the most high-profile and most visible on the film festival circuit…but this could easily be any of them. I look forward to seeing all three. 

MOLDOVA- “The Wall” Moldova sent films in 2023 and again in 2024 when four local films answered an open call for submissions. Film production is up, so I’m not sure why they quit …but I think they’ll return this year since they have several good choices, notably “The Wall”, a dark comedy about feuding neighbors, and “Transit Times”, a mother-daughter drama set in the turbulent post-independence 1990s. Documentary “Electing Mrs. Santa” is also in with a shot. I think they’ll opt for “The Wall” since director Ion Bors directed the brilliant “Carbon”, which was probably the closest Moldova ever came to the Oscar shortlist. But "Transit Times" was produced by Romanian director Cristian Mungiu, so I wouldn't count that out. 

MONTENEGRO- “Wondrous is the Silence of My Master” Tiny Montenegro (pop: 620,000) is one of the smallest Oscar countries but they’ve only missed one year since their Oscar debut in 2013. They had a great year this year with three majority productions that I’m aware of – “Black Trumpet” (Pula), about a son returning home to fight for an inheritance, “Otter” (Sarajevo), a quirky coming-of-age drama, and “Wondrous is the Silence of my Master” (Rotterdam/Sarajevo), a period drama set amidst the 19^th century wars with the Ottoman Turks. I think the size and scope (and costumes! and production design!) of “Wondrous”, which got a domestic release in November 2024, will be selected, although the cultural specificity of “Black Trumpet” looks very interesting to me. “Otter”, which could be hurt by the fact that it has a Bosnian director, will likely finish third. 

POLAND- “Fatherland” Most people are predicting this will be an easy win for International Oscar winner and Best Director nominee Pawel Pawlikowski (“Ida, “Cold War”)….and it's absolutely true that he probably will get it. These days, choosing a “visible” film is more important than choosing the best one. The German-language “Fatherland” is Pawlikowski's first feature in eight years, and it’s a well-reviewed Cold War drama that premiered in Cannes, so it checks all the right boxes. But I don’t think it’s a shoo-in….and I believe “Wild Wild East” (soon to premiere in Toronto), a WWII thriller set in Nazi-occupied Poland, is equally likely. You can count on Poland announcing late, as they will be hoping “East” wins the Toronto Platforms award so that they can have two films eligible this year. Dramedy “Altar Boys” (Winner, Best Polish Film, Gdynia 2025), documentary “Closure” (Best Director, Sundance), about a man looking for his missing son, and period relationship drama “Through the Wall”, will be hoping for a miracle but likely won’t be able to defeat the two frontrunners.

ROMANIA- “You Don’t Belong Here” In a normal year, Romania would be getting out the stopwatch to count English words in order to determine whether Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” is eligible. I haven’t seen it but I’ve heard some people swear it’s mostly in English, others promise it’s mostly in foreign languages (Romanian and Norwegian), while still others say it’s right on the line. But since "Fjord" (starring Romania-born Sebastian Stan, and Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve) won the Cannes Palme d’Or, it automatically qualifies (if it’s not in English). So Romania can now relax and choose another film. Their four main options are “Diary of a Chambermaid” (Cannes), “On Our Own” (Berlin) and “You Don’t Belong Here” (Locarno), all by established directors who have been sent to the Oscars before, plus dark horse low-budget comedy-drama “Three Days in September” (Rotterdam), which was allegedly shot in a single take. “Diary of a Chambermaid” is the latest from prolific director Radu Jude, who has represented Romanian four times in the past eleven years. I love Jude but Oscar does not….“Chambermaid”, co-starring Melanie Thierry, seems more serious than his earlier submissions, though it's still reportedly very theatrical. I’m going to predict that this year Romania will be one of those countries that sends a new and largely untested film to the race. My prediction is “You Don’t Belong Here”, about an esteemed and respected doctor who learns that his rebellious son has been accused of murder. It's due to premiere in Locarno this month and it sounds like their best option. I have “Chambermaid” in a close second place, followed by “Three Days in September”, “On Our Own” and “Transit Times”, a Moldovan co-production produced by Cristian Mungiu (see MOLDOVA).

RUSSIA- “Angels of War” I have no doubts that Russia will boycott the Oscars again this year. In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia announced that it had disbanded its Oscar selection committee and that it wouldn’t participate in the Oscars because of Western disrespect towards Russia (?). But Russia does have a great filmmaking tradition. Before they quit, they managed to make the shortlist five times out of eight between 2014-2021, netting Oscar nods for Andrey Zyvagintsev’s “Leviathan” and “Loveless”. Zyvagintsev has a new movie this year – “Minotaur” – which he made in Latvia, in the Russian language, with French and German production support. It won the Grand Prix at Cannes (2^nd Place), meaning it almost got an automatic slot at the Oscars (the English-language “Fjord” got it instead). If Russia did return this year (and they won’t), I think they would send “Angels of War”, a patriotic war movie about the Soviet evacuation of children by heroic iceboat soldiers during World War II. It opened the Moscow Film Festival and looks fairly big-budget. “Seven Versts Before Dawn”, another WWII drama, this time about a village leading Nazi German soldiers into an ambush/trap, also looks sufficiently patriotic. But Russia’s best-reviewed films this year are apolitical ones like comedy-drama “Scenes of Friendly Times”, sentimental comedy “Yura was Here”, and elderly couple drama “Two People in One Life and a Dog”….They opted for one of those in 2021 and I wish we could see one of those competing for Russia this year.

SERBIA- “Yugo Florida” Serbia has the most confused race in Eastern Europe, with many good films to choose from and no guarantee that they’ll select any of them. From 2019-2024, Serbia mostly sent dusty, patriotic, historical dramas meant for domestic audiences, with few international awards or festival play. Last year, there were reports in the Serbian press than most filmmakers didn’t even bother with the Oscars because of the belief that the system was rigged or corrupt. Last year saw only two candidates submitted….As a result, an arthouse film was actually sent. Serbia has three absolutely fantastic candidates this year- “Three Weeks After’ (Karlovy Vary), about bullying and suicide (and a ghost!) connected with a high-school trip, documentary “To Hold a Mountain” (Documentary Grand Jury Prize, Sundance), about a family of shepherds facing off against NATO training exercises in their community, and “Our Father” (Toronto) a ‘monastery crime thriller’ that has already pissed some conservatives off. They also have the upcoming “Until the Day Ends”, about a romance that blooms between protesters on opposite sides of a political conflict, which is due to premiere in Venice. None of these four frontrunners seem to have a release date yet except “Three Weeks After” which is scheduled for November, after the deadline. This has been a great film year for Serbia….they have three other critically acclaimed films at festivals - road movie “How Come It’s All Green Here?”, family docudrama “Wind Talk to Me” and slacker tearjerker “Yugo Florida”. If there’s any justice, Serbia will select one of these incredibly deserving films instead of something like “The General”, a patriotic WWII drama with middling reviews and no international exposure. Ultimately, it will depend completely on which directors submit their films to the Serbian selection committee, and which can prove a cinematic release. I’m very confused but will guess “Yugo Florida”, which I haven’t seen yet but which reviewers say is incredibly emotionally moving. Of the films I'm predicting from this region, it's probably the one I'm most excited to see. 

SLOVAKIA- “For Love” Slovakia has a wide-open race this year. The Slovak Academy often plays favorites (not unusual in countries with smaller film industries...). Since 2014, all but three submitted directors have been repeat picks, including two films each by Peter Bebjak, Ivan Ostrochovský and Marko Škop. Škop is one of my favorite directors from the region and the underrated “Eva Nova” deserved an Oscar in 2017. Škop and Ostrochovsky have new films this year, namely “For Love” (due to be released in September), about a young woman who meets a terminally ill man and his wife, and “Only Beautiful Things to Look At”, a based-on-a-true-story drama starring Anna Geislerová as a nurse in 1980s Czechoslovakia confronted with the eugenic sterilization of Roma women. These are the clear frontrunners, though they could just as easily choose “Flood”, a rural drama about a woman who wants to be a pilot against the wishes of her conservative father, rural documentary “Better to Go Mad in the Wild” (which won Best Documentary at both the Czech and Slovak Film Awards) or slacker romance “Lover, Not a Fighter”.  “Only Beautiful Things” is considered the favorite but I’ll predict an upset for “For Love”…and I can’t wait to see the new Škop film! UPDATE: I was wrong…On July 30, Slovakia became to first country to announce, and they picked “Flood”, which is not surprising.

SLOVENIA- “Whites Wash at Ninety” At the moment, Slovenia seems highly likely to send “Whites Wash at Ninety”, a drama set in the Communist Yugoslavian 80s, which is both their most popular (it was the #1 film, local or international, in 2025) and critically acclaimed choice. Marko Naberšnik is Slovenia’s most successful director but he works mostly in television these days and they’ve only sent one of his films to the Oscars thus far. However, it does face competition from the oddly-titled “Ida Who Sang So Badly Even the Dead Rose Up and Joined Her Song”, a quiet but well-reviewed comedy-drama about a tone-deaf girl who joins a choir, and the upcoming “Everything That’s Wrong with You” (Sarajevo ’26), about a Slovenian nurse who goes to Germany to meet a friend she met on the Internet…though I suspect that one will be eligible next year. While I’m pretty sure it will be one of these three, they also have queer drama “Fantasy” (Locarno 2025) and criminal rehabilitation documentary “When I Get Out” (Sarajevo 2026). According to the Slovenian Film Guide, no less than five previously submitted directors have films that will be released soon- “Hotel Alcohol”, about a group of drug and psychiatric patients on a road trip, looks the most promising, but there’s also “One Month”, “Tartufferies”, “Twenty Meters” and “Whispered Mercy”. Could one of them premiere in time to shake up the Slovenian race? I don't think so. 

UKRAINE- “Animals in War” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of films coming out of Ukraine are documentaries about the war, focusing on the country’s fierce resistance to Russian military aggression. Of these, “Traces” (Berlin Panorama) seems to stand out. Co-directed by a female ex-Ukrainian soldier and self-identified assault victim, it’s about the victims of Russian sexual crimes during the conflict. But this week’s national film awards (the Golden Dzygas) resulted in an unexpected sweep for sci-fi comedy-drama “U are the Universe”, about a lonely Ukrainian 'space trucker' who believes he is the last human alive after the Earth explodes…but who then receives an unexpected message from a French woman living on a remote space station. Could this be picked instead? "Universe" did beat out last year’s submission “2000 Meters to Andriivka” for Best Picture and Director at the Dzygas. Also very possible is “Animals in War”, a series of short films about the Ukraine conflict seen through the eyes of animals – including one co-starring two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn (This worked well for Poland’s “EO” with Isabelle Huppert)! These three films are the frontrunners but Ukraine also has Donbass elderly frenemy drama “Grey Bees” (Rotterdam 2024 but released in Ukraine in late 2025), Sergey Loznitsa’s Stalinist purge drama “Two Prosecutors” (Loznitsa has represented Ukraine before but it’s not a majority Ukrainian film), plus documentaries “The Last Prometheus of Donbas” (Thessalonik), “Cuba & Alaska” (Tallinn), “Simple Soldier” (Toronto), and “Songs of Slow Burning Earth”. I’m predicting Sean Penn gets “Animals” to the finals, followed by “Traces” and the Ukrainian Film winner “U are the Universe” a close third. “Grey Bees” and “The Last Prometheus” round out the Top 5. 

FINAL PREDICTION- Brazil wins two years in a row for "Secret Agent"

 This is one of the most exciting races in years for the International Feature category. It's common knowledge that if an International Film gets a Best Picture nomination, then it's automatically going to win Best International Film. This has happened six of the past seven years even when "Drive My Car" (terrible!) and "Zone of Interest" (boring!) managed to get it. 

But this year, "Sentimental Value" and "Secret Agent" are both nominated for Best Picture and Wagner Moura and Stellan Skarsgård are both serious contenders in the Acting categories...so people will definitely see both films. I've also heard that AMPAS is making an extra effort to guilt voters into only voting if they've seen all five nominees (this has long been the rule...but now you can't vote of you haven't seen a film, unless you click a box and actively lie)....so could that help the two politically important (and far superior) films from Iran France and Tunisia? God, I hope so...but probably not. 

"Sentimental Value" is considered to be the favorite. For me, this was among the most forgettable films of the year. I barely remembered a thing about it the day after I saw it. Was it well-acted? Yes. I'm fine with Reinsve and Skarsgård being nominated. But "Worst Person in the World" was a million times better, and I don't understand how "Sentimental" is any different from any other talky Nordic drama. 

I didn't love "Secret Agent" either....It's messy, with subplots that never get resolved, and could use about 30 minutes of editing from its first half.... It also had more buzz around the time AMPAS voters were casting their ballots....so I think it will be the surprise winner. Brazil will be the first back-to-back winner since Denmark in the 1980s. 

Dark horse: Could the Iran conflict lead to a surprise victory for "It Was Just An Accident"? That's the film I would vote for, and a victory speech from Jafar Panahi (also nominated in Best Original Screenplay) at this moment in history would be awesome. 

BRAZIL- "Secret Agent" (50%)

NORWAY- "Sentimental Value" (44%)

FRANCE- "It Was Just An Accident" (5%)

SPAIN- "Sirat" (1%)

TUNISIA- "The Voice of Hind Rajab" (The only one not to be nominated anywhere else....Just happy to be nominated)

SHORT FILMS

I saw all 41/45 shortlisted films in the three Short Film categories (I missed four documentaries). 

Live-Action

Should win: Butcher's Stain (Israel)

Will win: 

1. Friend of Dorothy (UK.....my second-favorite)     

2. The Singers (USA)

3. Two People Exchanging Saliva (France)

4. Butcher's Stain (Israel)

5. Jane Austen's Period Drama  (USA)

Should have been nominated: "Pearl Comb" and "Pantyhose" instead of "Saliva"

Documentary

Should win: Armed Only With a Camera (USA)

Will win:

1. All the Empty Rooms (USA....I have no doubts about this and it is very good)

2. Armed Only With a Camera (USA)

3. The Devil is Busy (USA)

4. Children No More (Israel, Very, very good)

5. Perfectly a Strangeness (Canada....just following donkeys around with a camera)

Should Have Been Nominated: "Rovina's Choice" or "Bad Hostage" instead of "Strangeness"

Animated

Should win: Hmmm.....I'd vote for "Forevergreen" but "Girl Who Cried Pearls" has the most impressive animation.

Will win:

This is a tough call....Any of the Top Four could win

1. Butterfly/Papillon (France)

2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Canada)

3. Forevergreen (USA)

4. The Retirement Plan (USA....What a great script.....but the animation is very simple)

5. Three Sisters (???)

Should Have Been Nominated: "Playing God" instead of "The Retirement Plan"

Short Films

 A quick note about the short films before today’s announcement…There are fifteen shorts nominated in each of the three short film categories and I was fortunate to see 33 of the 45 films- 13 animated films, 9 documentaries and 10 live-action. 

The best were “The Butcher’s Stain” (Israel), “Playing God” (Italy) and “Armed with a Camera” (USA) though only the last one is guaranteed to be nominated for an Oscar. 

Here are my predictions for the films I saw- 

Animated- 

1. Snow Bear- Somehow the official frontrunner…Cute but forgettable. B+

2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls- Brilliantly animated stop-motion fable by a previous nominee. A-

3. Éiru- Forgettable Celtic myth…Also said to be a frontrunner for the win. B

4. Playing God- Terrifyingly beautiful. Best of the lot. A

5: Papillon- Original animation…Important but dull story of a Jewish Algerian swimmer facing discrimination and the Nazis. B+

6. Forevergreen- The best of the “cute” children’s shorts. A

7. Retirement Plan- An A for the script, a C for the rather plain and simple animation. B+

8. Hurikán- Funny, “Run Lola Run”-esque urban adventure with a boarman looking for beer in a Czech town. B+

9. Cardboard- Cute kiddie comedy about a family of pigs. B+

10. Autokar- Dull, dreamy “Alice in Wonderland” set on a Polish bus. B

11. The Shyness of Trees- French fantasy about a woman and her dying (Wiccan?) mom. B

12. I Died in Irpin- I support Ukraine but did not enjoy this primitive short. C-

13. Les bottes de la nuit- Kiddie film about a haunted forest. B-

I didn’t see Quinta’s Ghost, which I hear is a dark horse, or Three Sisters, which I’ve heard will NOT be nominated. 

Documentaries 

1. All the Empty Rooms, A. So sad…and will probably win. A documentary filmmaker films the rooms of school shooting victims. 

2. Armed Only with a Camera, A+ Deserves to win. Fitting tribute to a great journalist. 

3. Rovina’s Choice, A. Film about the effects of USAID cuts on individual family at a refugee camp in Kenya. Politically important. 

4. Cashing Out, A-. Fascinating look at a controversial company that helped monetize the life insurance of AIDS patients in the 80s. 

5. Bad Hostage, A-. Well-made and informative look at so-called “Stockholm Syndrome” telling three complete stories of female hostages. 

6. Last Days on Lake Trinity, A-. Devastatingly sad and very well-done cinema verite. 

7. All the Walls Came Down, B. Important topic, middling filmmaking. 

8. Perfectly a Strangeness, Is following a bunch of cute donkeys around with a camera, a reason to give the director an Oscar? Cute but no. C

9. We Were the Scenery, Boring film that looks like someone filming their Vietnamese grandparents telling a story.  C-

I didn’t see “The Devil is Busy” which will surely take one of the five nomination spots, and  “Heartbeat” which will probably come in last place. I also failed to see  “Chasing Time”, “Classroom Four”, “Children No More” and “On Healing Land”. 

Live-Action

1. Friend of Dorothy, A-. Give Miriam Margolyes an Oscar! cute funny very well-made short film from UK

2. Beyond Silence, B+. Sexual assault drama from the Netherlands

3. Boy with the White Skin, B+. Film about an albino boy in Senegal. This is shot like a horror film and is a very good short….even though it seems like they forgot to film a final scene.

4. Ado, B.School shooting drama. A bit over-emotional and maudlin. Oscar should love it

5. Butcher’s Stain, A. Best film on the list. This is an Israeli film, shot like a thriller, about discrimination against Arabs in Israeli society.

6. Extremism, B+. Film about Putin’s repression in Russia told from the perspective of two young lesbians. 

7. Pantyhose, A-. Formulaic but fun and relatable relationship comedy from Finland. 

8. Jane Austen’s Period Drama, A-. Super fun comedy, but probably too silly for the Oscars. 

9. Amarela, B- Average short about the life of a Brazilian Japanese girl

10. Butterfly on a Wheel, D. How can a film that looks and sound so beautiful be so bad? 

I missed seeing The Singers, Pearl Comb, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Rock Paper Scissors and Dads Not Home.

OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

So, the rules make things so predictable now that I correctly predicted 12/15 finalists this year....and the three films that I missed (Germany, Palestine and Switzerland) were among my four alternates. I'm still a bit surprised that Denmark and the UK failed to make the shortlist (It's only the fourth time Denmark has missed since 2010)....The last film I predicted - Colombia's "Un poeta" - was probably a bit of wishful thinking. 

Moving on to next week's Oscar nominations....

This year is an exciting race because we literally have no idea which film will win. The well-made but dull “Sentimental Value” has been the front-runner all year and is expected to be nominated in a number of mainstream categories (although the SAG snub of its entire cast should make them worry). “It Was Just An Accident”, the Iranian film representing France, has a Cannes Palme d’Or, the critics vote, and the best backstory of the bunch. Dissident filmmaker Jafar Panahi, now travelling in the United States, wrote the script based on a previous stint in an Iranian prison and now faces another jail sentence and travel ban if and when he returns to increasingly unstable Iran….which he has sworn to do. But, as Brazil did last year, “The Secret Agent” has been rising fast and is peaking  at the right time….Though everyone tells me the film is “difficult” and very, very long, people genuinely seem to love it…and its Golden Globe win last night makes it a serious threat.

The other two Oscar nominees probably don’t have a chance to win….but there’s an exciting race to see which two get the invitations to Hollywood. Almost everyone is predicting that this will be an exciting toss-up between Korea (the popular, commercial option), Spain (the darling of critics and the guilds) and Tunisia (the sentimental and political choice). Kaouther Ben Hania is a two-time Oscar nominee and she and Park Chan-wook are AMPAS members.

Is there room for a surprise in such a front-loaded race? It’s unlikely but possible. Reportedly, last year’s 4-time Oscar winner Sean Baker (“Anora”) and Netflix are lobbying  hard for the (rather basic) “Left-Handed Girl”…which Baker co-wrote. With Korea, Spain and Tunisia splitting the vote, Taiwan could be a potential spoiler.

What about the rest? 

It’s always an advantage when you are a frontrunner and/or shortlisted in other categories, which will help Japan’s “Kokuho” (Make-Up and and Costume Design) and Germany’s “Sound of Falling” (Cinematography)…though they don’t seem “loved” enough outside their home countries. And while buzz has been quieter, “Belen” (Amazon) and “Homebound” (Netflix + Martin Scorsese) have powerful allies in their corner too.

The other four - Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Switzerland are probably out of luck- even if some of them are much better films than the frontrunners. Jordan’s “All That’s Left of You” – which has an American director and is arguably the best-reviewed film on the list - might have a chance if it wasn’t splitting the vote with two other films focused on Palestine.

Incidentally, I’ve seen eight of the fifteen films on the list….I’d rank them in the following order…..None were bad.

1. India- "Homebound" 9/10

2. Switzerland, "Late Shift" 9/10

3. France, "It Was Just An Accident" 8/10

4. Korea, "No Other Choice", 8/10

5. Spain, "Sirat", 7.5/10

6. Taiwan, "Left-Handed Girl", 7.5/10

7. Argentina, "Belen", 7/10

8. Norway, "Sentimental Value", 5.5/10

And here’s my predicted ranking:

VIRTUALLY LOCKED

1. NORWAY- “Sentimental Value” (Letterboxd: 42, Rotten Tomatoes: 97, IMDB: 79)

2. BRAZIL- “The Secret Agent” (LB: 39, RT: 99, IMDB: 79)

3. IRAN FRANCE- “It Was Just An Accident” (LB: 40, RT: 97, IMDB: 75)

These three are safe. They’ve swept the precursors, have almost no detractors and – most importantly – are all solidly in the race for Best Picture.

BLOODBATH FOR A NOMINATION

4. SPAIN- “Sirat” (LB: 36, RT: 93, IMDB: 70)

5. TUNISIA- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (LB: 43, RT: 96, IMDB: 86)

6. KOREA- “No Other Choice” (LB: 42, RT: 98, IMDB: 76)

Statistically, it’s “Sirat” that should get knocked out. It’s a divisive film and reviews aren’t as good as the other two. But it made four Oscar shortlists for the guilds (Casting, Score, Cinematography and Sound) showing it has a broad base of support. For now, I think “No Other Choice” will be left out because it’s (a lot) less serious. But I love Park so I hope I’m wrong. This could really go any way. 

VERY DARK HORSES

7. TAIWAN- “Left-Handed Girl”

8. JAPAN- “Kokuho”

9. INDIA- “Homebound”

As mentioned, these three Asian films have powerful backers….But Taiwan is probably the only one with a chance. The three-hour “Kokuho” is impressive but may have an hour too much kabuki…..

HOPING FOR A MIRACLE

10. JORDAN- “All That’s Left of You"

11. GERMANY- “Sound of Falling”

12. IRAQ- “The President’s Cake”

I’m not sure why Germany is here. Nobody seems to like it. 

Everyone who sees Jordan says it’s one of the best films of the year. Why hasn’t it gotten nominated anywhere? 

Iraq, the only country to be shortlisted for the first time, had a lot of buzz but it disappeared before Oscar season….Sony Pictures Classics didn’t fight for it 

HAPPY TO BE ON THE SHORTLIST

13. ARGENTINA- “Belen”

14. SWITZERLAND- “Late Shift”

15. PALESTINE- “Palestine 36”

“Belen” is a nice little film about an important topic (abortion) but I felt that someone had taken the script of “Argentina 1985” and literally rewritten the structure to be about abortion. 

“Palestine 36”, the least visible of the three films about Palestine won’t be able to compete with Jordan and Tunisia….but making the list is a major accomplishment for Jacir. 

Last is Switzerland, the only country that made the shortlist with no major stars, backers, distributors or supporters in their corner. It was one of the best of the 92 submitted films this year. How wonderful it made the shortlist and how sad it really has no chance to advance further….